Econometrics Commons^™

The Effects Of Private Equity Ownership Of Acute Care Hospitals On Patient Experience, Abigail M. Huffman

Theses and Dissertations

In 10 years, private-equity firms' share of hospitals has grown from 2-3% to 8%.  Using data from two sources: the Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) patient surveys and the Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP), I demonstrate a causal effect of private-equity ownership on patient satisfaction using difference-in-difference methods.

From Static Λ To Moving Penalties: Dynamic Regularization In Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice, Ariel Santiago

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis evaluates whether dynamically tuned weight penalties can improve high-dimensional mean-variance portfolio choice. Classical Markowitz portfolios perform poorly when the number of assets is large relative to the data, because small estimation errors in means and covariances can generate extreme, fragile allocations. A common remedy is to regularize the weights using L1 (lasso), L2 (ridge), or elastic-net penalties, but these are typically chosen once and held fixed. Using monthly excess returns on the 48 Fama-French industry portfolios from January 2010 to June 2025, this thesis compares penalized mean-variance and minimum-variance strategies under long-only and long-short constraints, with and without …

Entropic Foundation Of Finance And Physics: Securities Price Dynamics And Quantum Theory, Mohammad Abedi

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

In many scientific and financial contexts, we must reason and make predictions under conditions of incomplete information. This dissertation develops Entropic Dynamics (ED) as a unified framework for deriving dynamical laws directly from principles of inference. Within this approach, probability distributions represent states of knowledge, and their evolution is determined through entropy maximization subject to relevant constraints. This leads to a novel concept of entropic time and a formulation of dynamics as an inferential process. In this talk, I will present how ED provides a common foundation across multiple domains. In physics, quantum dynamics for particles and scalar fields in …

The Conditional Nature Of The Value Premium: Interaction And Cross-Sectional Evidence Across Market Regimes, Samuel L. Klein

Honors Thesis

This thesis examines why value-based investment strategies generate strong returns in some environments yet weaken or collapse in others. Regressions test whether the performance of the book-to-market ratio depends on the investor’s perception of financial health as defined by F-Score and accruals. Across additive regressions, interaction models, cross-sectionals, and heatmap visualizations, a consistent mechanism emerges. The book-to-market effect is strongest when financial information is neither highly reliable nor severely distressed. In these “moderate-quality” environments, investors struggle to fully distinguish the transitory components of earnings from their persistent counterparts. This makes valuation ratios particularly influential. Accrual intensity and financial strength jointly …

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Insentif Fiskal Terhadap Tingkat Komponen Dalam Negeri (Tkdn) Industri Manufaktur Di Indonesia, Muhammad Muhammad, Riyanto Riyanto

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Over the last decade, the manufacturing sector's contribution to Indonesia's economy has declined. In 2010, it was 29.10% of GDP, but by 2022, it had dropped to 19.14%. Employment in the sector also fell, from 14.91% of the workforce in 2010 to 13.80% in 2022. To reverse this trend, the government introduced a policy to boost the Domestic Component Level (DCL) in manufacturing. By offering fiscal incentives to industries meeting certain DCL targets, the government aims to drive economic growth and job creation. A study using BPS data from 2008-2019 shows that this policy raised DCL by 23.5%.

From Disruption To Integration: Cryptocurrency Prices, Financial Fluctuations, And Macroeconomy, Zhengyang Chen

Faculty Publications

This paper examines cryptocurrency shock transmission to financial markets and the macroeconomy using a Bayesian structural VAR with Pandemic Priors from 2015 to 2024. By affecting overall risk appetite, cryptocurrency price shocks generate positive financial market spillovers, accounting for 18% of equity and 27% of commodity price fluctuations. Real economic effects are significant in driving investment but remain limited, contributing only 4% to unemployment and 6% to industrial production variance. However, cryptocurrency shocks explain 18% of price-level forecast error variance at long horizons. Narrative analysis reveals sentiment and technology as primary shock drivers. These findings demonstrate cryptocurrency's deep financial system …

Mortgage Default Classification Modeling For Variable Analysis, Brendan R. Goggins

Honors College Theses

The financial crisis of the early 2000’s is a prime example of the severe consequences that mortgage default and borrower insolvency can have on economies at large. Mortgage default specifically is a prime case with the popularization of mortgage backed securities and the commonality of this loan structure. Multiple hypotheses and models have been formed to understand the reasons, causes, and consequences of mortgage default. This paper uses both machine learning and statistical classification models to inform an understanding of the variables most significant and impactful to the default outcome of mortgages. Consideration is given to both loan-level microeconomic variables …

Financial Risk In A Changing Climate, Mashuk S. Rahman

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Essay 1:

Given the missing-not-at-random (MNAR) nature of carbon emissions figures under the voluntary disclosure regulator environment, this research imputes synthetic emissions figures for both disclosing and non-disclosing publicly traded US firms, using an IV approach adapted for sample bias correction. The forward-observing implied cost of equity capital measure is consistently higher for carbon-intensive firms regardless of disclosure decision. This higher cost found in the large swath of high-emitting firms reduces the net present value of green transition investments, thus fueling existing research on the counterproductive natures of capital allocation in efforts to reduce corporate pollution. Contrary to emerging research, …

Specifying And Estimating Vector Autoregressions Using Their Eigensystem Representation, Leo Krippner

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This article introduces the principles and mechanics of the eigensystem vector autoregression (EVAR) framework, where a VAR may be specified and estimated directly via its eigenvalue and eigenvector parameters. Using explicit constraints on the eigensystem permits control of a VAR ís allowable dynamics, which is illustrated empirically with standard and time-varying VAR estimations specified to be always non-explosive.

Jargon To Jackpot: The Financial Impact Of Infusing Pop Culture References In Social Media, Madelynn Solow

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This research explores the impact of incorporating pop culture references in a company's Twitter feed on the company's stock price. Pop culture is integral to people's everyday lives, providing a sense of familiarity and fun between individuals. Many companies have started leveraging pop culture references on social media platforms like Twitter to establish a relatable and engaging connection with diverse consumer demographics. The primary purpose of this research is to investigate whether this strategy is beneficial within the stock market. It is hypothesized that incorporating pop culture references on Twitter can lead to increased sales and higher stock prices, as …

Euro-Denominated Credit Liquidity: Tracing Cyclical Phases In Global Finance, Mateusz Mariusz Mierzejewski

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

In the past few years, set against the backdrop of pandemic mitigation efforts and the resultant inflationary spike, the macrofinancial landscape has undergone significant transformation. The tightening of monetary policy by global central banks in response to these phenomena has notably affected global financial liquidity, particularly within the realm of foreign currency lending. This article delves into the shifts in credit liquidity, centering on the Global Liquidity Index for euro-denominated loans across European Union nations over the last two decades. Through the application of the Fourier Transform, we analyse the cyclical patterns within the index and delineate the primary phases …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …

Estimating And Applying Autoregression Models Via Their Eigensystem Representation, Leo Krippner

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This article introduces the eigensystem autoregression (EAR) framework, which allows an AR model to be specified, estimated, and applied directly in terms of its eigenvalues and eigenvectors. An EAR estimation can therefore impose various constraints on AR dynamics that would not be possible within standard linear estimation. Examples are restricting eigenvalue magnitudes to control the rate of mean reversion, additionally imposing that eigenvalues be real and positive to avoid pronounced oscillatory behavior, and eliminating the possibility of explosive episodes in a time-varying AR. The EAR framework also produces closed-form AR forecasts and associated variances, and forecasts and data may be …

Disagreement In Market Index Options, Guilherme Salome, George Tauchen, Jia Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We generate new evidence on disagreement among traders in the S&P 500 options market from high-frequency intraday price and volume data. Inference on disagreement is based on a model where investors observe public information but agree to disagree on its interpretation; disagreement among investors is captured by the volume–volatility elasticity. For options, there are two natural variables related to disagreement: moneyness and tenor, which we relate to disagreement about the distribution of the market index at different quantiles and times. The estimated volume–volatility elasticity equals unity for options near the money and close to expiration, which is consistent with the …

Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad

Theses and Dissertations

We find that a company’s decision to execute a stock split is affected by the number of stock splits carried out by its peers. Through the use of a broad peer group construction methodology, we also reveal the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to companies of different market capitalization size. In the periods of 1983–1996 and 1997–2009 we find that firms are more likely to split their stock if more of their peers have recently done so. However, in the period of 2010–2019 we see that the opposite is true. These results provide further evidence on social learning from …

Assessing The Impact Of Financial Obstacles On Manufacturing Firm's Capacity Utilization: Bayesian Approach, Arab Dahir Hassan, Razim Ozcan

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study aims to investigate the relationship between financial obstacles and the capacity utilization of manufacturing firms. This study departs from previous studies in the literature by employing Bayesian linear regression analysis. The results demonstrate that financial constraints have a considerable negative effect on the capacity utilization of manufacturing enterprises, but access to credit lines has a positive effect. The sample consists of 1,494 private manufacturing firms in 31 Europe & Central Asian countries. Financial obstacles were perceived as the major impediment to business operations by 65% of the enterprises in the survey. Furthermore, 52% of enterprises in the sample …

A Comparison Of M&T Bank And Citizens Bank Net Income Changes During The Coronavirus Pandemic, Alex R. Glasier

Applied Economics Theses

The COVID-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on every aspect of life, particularly within the world of banking & finance. All banks saw sharp drops in their stock prices and net income, but my hypothesis is that larger, more established banks maintained more stability during 2020 than smaller banks. This paper analyzes the income statements and balance sheets of M&T Bank (an older, more well-established bank) and Citizens Bank (a less-established bank) during this difficult time.

The first part of my thesis describes similarities and differences between M&T Bank and Citizens Bank. I explain how these similarities and differences may …

Do Philippine Stocks Catch Coronavirus? Some Econometric Check-Up On Pandemic Data, 2021-2022, Mark Reniel M. Amarila, Luisito C. Abueg

Journal of Economics, Management and Agricultural Development

Using daily data from March 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022, the USD-PHP exchange rate and pandemic-related variables such as the number of cases, vaccinations, and stringency index in relation to the movements of Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) were investigated. The paper views vaccination as an instrument for reducing economic uncertainty, subsequently providing a positive sentiment for investors and stock market. Ordinary least squares, autoregressive distributed lags, and vector autoregression was used to show some dynamics based on time series data. Particularly, there are indications of reported cases being negatively correlated and statistically significant for PSEi. Further, impulse response …

The Optimal Cross-Border Network Structure Of Chinese Commercial Banks — An Analysis Based On The New Structural Economics And New Structural Finance Theory, Hongjie Gu

Fordham Dissertations and Theses

With the unprecedented global economic integration, the internationalization of commercial banks (CBs) in a country or region can be closely related to the stability and prosperity of the world economy. The internationalization of Chinese CBs has turned out a non-negligible trend, particularly the big four state-owned CBs. The acceleration of “going global” has enabled Chinese CBs to exert an increasing influence on the world economy. This dissertation applies New Structural Economics theory (NSE) through the “one analysis and three inductions” methodology to analyze the evolution of the cross-border network structure adopted by CBs in the internationalization process. In this dissertation, …

The Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Corporate Financial Fragility In The Vietnamese Manufacturing Industry, Trang Nguyen

Honors Theses

In the past decades, under the government’s export-led growth strategy, the Vietnamese manufacturing sector – the backbone of the whole Vietnamese economy – has established a deep tie with the international market and the reliance on foreign buyers has fueled the growth of this sector before COVID-19. However, during the pandemic, when the global market contracted at -3.5 percent and demand slumped globally, this existing growth model and the manufacturing sector’s reliance on foreign buyers induced significant risks to this sector from both the demand and supply side. Using the firm-level data on 41 manufacturing exporting companies from the Vietstock …

Monetary Policy Transmission And Bank Interest Rates In Nigeria, Eleam Victor E., Ekwom Chinyelu G., Ariolu Chibueze C., Umebali Chukwubuzo J., Balogun Adewale T.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the adjustment of retail and money market interest rates to changes in discount corridor of the monetary policy in Nigeria. A vector error correction model was adopted for this study, using monthly data from 2007:06 to 2019:12. We further accounted for structural breaks in the dataset to improve its policy reliability. The adjustment parameters were found to be significant but with slow speed of adjustment. This finding provides evidence of the weakness of the discount corridor in monetary policy transmission in Nigeria. Furthermore, the results showed no asymmetric adjustment of retail rates to long run equilibria. Lastly, …

Sfa Application On Islamic Economics And Finance Research, Aam Slamet Rusydiana, Lina Nugraha Rani, Rosadiro Cahyono

Library Philosophy and Practice (e-journal)

This study aims to determine the map of SFA research on Islamic economics and finance (IEF). SFA or Stochastic Frontier Approach is one method for parametric efficiency measurement. The data analyzed were in the form of publication of the SFA application research on IEF, totaling 109 articles. Map of the development of SFA field research is obtained through the export process into the .txt file format. The export data is then processed and analyzed using the VOSviewer application program to determine the SFA development’s bibliometric map in Islamic finance application research. The results showed that the number of publications on …

Volatility Spillover Between Stock Market And Currency Market Of Pakistan In The Presence Of Structural Breaks, Muhammad Jamil, Hifsa Mobeen

Business Review

This study examines the volatility transmission between the currency market and the stock market of Pakistan in the presence of structural breaks. For this purpose, daily data from the stock market and currency market is analyzed. An empirical investigation is conducted using the bivariate EGARCH model and the test for multiple structural breaks developed by Bai and Perron (2003). This study analyses these markets with the inclusion of sudden changes. Results of the EGARCH model suggest that volatility spillover is positive and bidirectional between these markets of Pakistan.

Social Determinants Of Health: The Impact On Health Outcomes And Hospital Profitability, Danielle Mcpherson

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

Hospitals are experiencing decreasing profitability due to increasing healthcare cost. In this paper, I demonstrate that there is financial value to hospitals by addressing social determinants of health (SDOH) as this strategy improves health outcomes and yields cost savings. I estimate the impact of SDOH on the health outcomes using an IV probit regression analysis and estimated the impact of health outcomes on cost using a basic linear regression. I estimate that improving SDOH by one standard deviation will result in hospital cost savings as follows: addressing Violent Crime will decrease hospital cost between 0.16% and 0.21%, addressing Supplemental Nutrition …

Data Driven Value-At-Risk Forecasting Using A Svr-Garch-Kde Hybrid, Marius Lux, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Stefan Lessmann

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is value-at-risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric models can lead to biased results or even underestimation of risk due to time varying volatility, skewness and leptokurtosis of financial return series. The paper proposes a nonlinear and nonparametric framework to forecast VaR that is motivated by overcoming the disadvantages of parametric models with a purely data driven approach. Mean and volatility are modeled via support vector regression (SVR) where the volatility model is motivated …

Analyzing Competitive Balance In Professional Sport, Kevin Alwell

Honors Scholar Theses

In this paper we review several measures to statistically analyze competitive balance and report which leagues have a wider variance of performance amongst its competitors. Each league seeks to maintain high levels of parity, making matches and overall season more unpredictable and appealing to the general audience. Here we quantify competitive advantage across major sports leagues in numbers using several statistical methods in order for leagues to optimize their revenue.

Environmental Governance For Whom? Examining The Political, Institutional, Fiscal, And Legal Determinants Of State Environmental Agency Budget Policy In The Us, Andrew R. Duggan

Theses and Dissertations

Budgets are a prospective tool of governance, and appropriations are a planning vehicle reflecting: bureaucracies’ values, complex interactions, collective preferences, political influences, and available resources. Research spanning 30 years finds that environmental pollution is a key determinant of environmental budgets in the US, though myriad factors, actors, and subsystems are important to consider. Due to federalism and devolution of responsibilities and authorities, environmental governance falls largely to the states. While the dynamics that shape state environmental budget policy have received scholarly interest, theoretically-driven examinations of environmental appropriations remain limited within the public budgeting and environmental policy literature.

Using panel data …

Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive model previously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finite samples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against a number of …