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2015

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Articles 1 - 30 of 145

Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Money And The Scale Of Cooperation, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari Dec 2015

Money And The Scale Of Cooperation, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

This study reveals the existence of a causal link between the availability of money and an expanded scale of interaction. We constructed an experiment where participants chose the group size, either a low-value partnership or a high-value group of strangers, and then faced an intertemporal cooperative task. Theoretically, a monetary system was inessential to achieve cooperation. Empirically, without a working monetary system, participants were reluctant to expand the scale of interaction; and when they did, they ended up destroying surplus compared to partnerships, because cooperation collapsed in large groups. This economic failure was reversed only when participants managed to concurrently …

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Two Essays In Finance And Economics: “Investment Opportunities In Commodity And Stock Markets For G7 Countries” And “Global And Local Factors Affecting Sovereign Yield Spreads”, Selma Izadi Dec 2015

Two Essays In Finance And Economics: “Investment Opportunities In Commodity And Stock Markets For G7 Countries” And “Global And Local Factors Affecting Sovereign Yield Spreads”, Selma Izadi

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

In chapter 1, I investigate the return links and dynamic conditional correlations between the equity and commodity returns for G7 countries from 2000:01 to 2014:10. The commodity futures include BCOM Index which contains the futures and spot price of 22 commodities, Brent and Crude oil futures, gold and silver futures, Wheat, Corn and Soybean futures and CRB index. The finding indicates that during the full sample period GOLD, WHEAT and CORN have the smallest dynamic conditional correlations with all the Equity indexes. In addition, the correlations between the GOLD/Equity pairs are negative during the financial crisis. This fact indicates the …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2015, Leonard Lardaro Dec 2015

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2015, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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The Child Support "Tax" : Determining The Effect Of Child Support On The Income Growth Of Noncustodial Parents, Jesse Snook Dec 2015

The Child Support "Tax" : Determining The Effect Of Child Support On The Income Growth Of Noncustodial Parents, Jesse Snook

Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the role of child support in determining income growth. Using an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model with state-level fixed effects applied to panel data from the National Study of Families and Households (NSFH), I find that having a legal agreement to pay child support has a significant and negative effect on the income growth of the noncustodial parent. Specifically, after controlling for demographic variables and the respondent’s economic circumstances in the initial time period, the OLS model with state-level fixed effects finds that having a child support obligation is associated with a 17.73 percentage point decrease in …

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Unified M-Estimation Of Fixed-Effects Spatial Dynamic Models With Short Panels, Zhenlin Yang Dec 2015

Unified M-Estimation Of Fixed-Effects Spatial Dynamic Models With Short Panels, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is well known that quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of dynamic panel data (DPD) models with short panels depends on the assumptions on the initial values, and a wrong treatment of them will result in inconsistency and serious bias. The same issues apply to spatial DPD (SDPD) models with short panels. In this paper, a unified Mestimation method is proposed for estimating the fixed-effects SDPD models containing three major types of spatial effects, namely spatial lag, spatial error and space-time lag. The method is free from the specification of the distribution of the initial observations and robust against nonnormality …

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Adaptive Nonparametric Regression With Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao Dec 2015

Adaptive Nonparametric Regression With Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study adaptive nonparametric regression estimation in the presence of conditional heteroskedastic error terms. We demonstrate that both the conditional mean and conditional variance functions in a nonparametric regression model can be estimated adaptively based on the local profile likelihood principle. Both the one-step Newton-Raphson estimator and the local profile likelihood estimator are investigated. We show that the proposed estimators are asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible local likelihood estimators [e.g., Aerts and Claeskens (1997) Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 1536-1545], which require knowledge of the error distribution. Simulation evidence suggests that when the distribution of …

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New Methodology For Constructing Real Estate Price Indices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Dec 2015

New Methodology For Constructing Real Estate Price Indices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a new methodology for constructing a real estate price index that utilizes all transaction price information, encompassing both single-sales and repeat-sales. The method is less susceptible to specification error than standard hedonic methods and is not subject to the sample selection bias involved in indexes that rely only on repeat sales. The methodology employs a model design that uses a sale pairing process based on the individual building level, rather than the individual house level as is used in the repeat-sales method. The approach extends ideas from repeat-sales methodology in a way that accommodates much wider datasets. …

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Intraday Value-At-Risk: An Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse Dec 2015

Intraday Value-At-Risk: An Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose to compute the Intraday Value-at-Risk (IVaR) for stocks using real-time transaction data. Tick-by-tick data filtered by price duration are modeled using a two-state asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model, and the IVaR is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation based on the estimated AACD model. Backtesting results for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) show that the IVaR calculated using the AACD method outperforms those using the Dionne et al. (2009) and Giot (2005) methods.

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Linear Programming-Based Estimators In Nonnegative Autoregression, Daniel P. A. Preve Dec 2015

Linear Programming-Based Estimators In Nonnegative Autoregression, Daniel P. A. Preve

Research Collection School Of Economics

This note studies robust estimation of the autoregressive (AR) parameter in a nonlinear, nonnegative AR model. It is shown that a linear programming estimator (LPE), considered by Nielsen and Shephard (2003) among others, remains consistent under severe model misspecification. Consequently, the LPE can be used to seek sources of misspecification and to isolate certain trend, seasonal or cyclical components. Simple and quite general conditions under which the LPE is strongly consistent in the presence of heavy-tailed, serially correlated, heteroskedastic disturbances are given, and a brief review of the literature on LP-based estimators in nonnegative autoregression is presented. Finite-sample properties of …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2015, Leonard Lardaro Nov 2015

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2015, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real-Time Detectors, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu Nov 2015

Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real-Time Detectors, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article provides the limit theory of real-time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (PWY; International Economic Review 52 [2011], 201-26) and in a companion paper by the present authors (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2015; PSY; International Economic Review 56 [2015a], 1099-1134. Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolve as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal market behavior as well as exuberance and collapse. Both the PWY and PSY estimates rely on recursive right-tailed unit root tests (each with a different recursive …

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Supplement To Two Papers On Multiple Bubbles [Online Supplementary Materials], Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu Nov 2015

Supplement To Two Papers On Multiple Bubbles [Online Supplementary Materials], Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a supplement to two companion papers by the authors: “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500” (PSY1 hereafter); and “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory of Real Time Detectors” (PSY2 hereafter). Section 1 supplements the empirical application of PSY1 by examining the robustness of the bubble identification and dating results to the choice of the minimum window size parameter used in the rolling regression framework of PSY. Section 2 provides proofs of supplementary lemmas that facilitate analysis of the multiple bubble case, derives the limit behaviour of the recursive unit …

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Improved Inferences For Spatial Regression Models, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang Nov 2015

Improved Inferences For Spatial Regression Models, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method is popular in the estimation and inference for spatial regression models. However, the QML estimators (QMLEs) of the spatial parameters can be quite biased and hence the standard inferences for the regression coefficients (based on t-ratios) can be seriously affected. This issue, however, has not been addressed. The QMLEs of the spatial parameters can be bias-corrected based on the general method of Yang (2015b, J. of Econometrics 186, 178-200). In this paper, we demonstrate that by simply replacing the QMLEs of the spatial parameters by their bias-corrected versions, the usual t-ratios for the regression coefficients …

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Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects And Multiple Structural Breaks, Degui Li, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su Nov 2015

Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects And Multiple Structural Breaks, Degui Li, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider estimation of common structural breaks in panel data models with unobservable interactive fixed effects. We introduce a penalized principal component (PPC) estimation procedure with an adaptive group fused LASSO to detect the multiple structural breaks in the models. Under some mild conditions, we show that with probability approaching one the proposed method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and consistently estimate the common break dates. Furthermore, we estimate the regression coefficients through the post-LASSO method and establish the asymptotic distribution theory for the resulting estimators. The developed methodology and theory are applicable to …

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Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu Nov 2015

Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles in real time. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real-time data. Use of these methods over long historical periods presents a more serious econometric challenge due to the complexity of the nonlinear structure and break mechanisms that are inherent in multiple-bubble phenomena within the same sample period. To meet this challenge, this article develops a new recursive flexible window method that is better suited for practical implementation with long …

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A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Jun Yu Nov 2015

A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new Bayesian test statistic is proposed to test a point null hypothesis based on a quadratic loss. The proposed test statistic may be regarded as the Bayesian version of the Lagrange multiplier test. Its asymptotic distribution is obtained based on a set of regular conditions and follows a chi-squared distribution when the null hypothesis is correct. The new statistic has several important advantages that make it appealing in practical applications. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffrey-Lindley's paradox. Third, it always takes a non-negative value and is relatively easy to compute, even for models …

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The Effect Of New York City Sports Outcomes On The Stock Market, Nir Levy Oct 2015

The Effect Of New York City Sports Outcomes On The Stock Market, Nir Levy

Undergraduate Economic Review

This thesis investigates whether sports outcomes for New York City based teams affect the daily returns, volatility or trading volume of major stock indexes in the United States. I research whether events that affect local mood in a major financial center can influence national stock indexes by swaying the sentiment of workers in the financial sector. By performing an event study I found evidence that returns are abnormally high following championships won by New York City professional sports teams. Returns are abnormally low and volume is abnormally high following elimination from a championship round.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2015, Leonard Lardaro Oct 2015

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2015, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Model Selection In The Presence Of Incidental Parameters, Yeonseok Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips Oct 2015

Model Selection In The Presence Of Incidental Parameters, Yeonseok Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers model selection in panels where incidental parameters are present. Primary interest centers on selecting a model that best approximates the underlying structure involving parameters that are common within the panel. It is well known that conventional model selection procedures are often inconsistent in panel models and this can be so even without nuisance parameters. Modifications are then needed to achieve consistency. New model selection information criteria are developed here that use either the Kullback-Leibler information criterion based on the profile likelihood or the Bayes factor based on the integrated likelihood with a bias-reducing prior. These model selection …

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Bias-Correction For Weibull Common Shape Estimation, Yan Shen, Zhenlin Yang Oct 2015

Bias-Correction For Weibull Common Shape Estimation, Yan Shen, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A general method for correcting the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the common shape parameter of Weibull populations, allowing a general right censorship, is proposed in this paper. Extensive simulation results show that the new method is very effective in correcting the bias of the MLE, regardless of censoring mechanism, sample size, censoring proportion and number of populations involved. The method can be extended to more complicated Weibull models.

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Poverty Decomposition By Regression: An Application To Tanzania, Tomoki Fujii Oct 2015

Poverty Decomposition By Regression: An Application To Tanzania, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a poverty decomposition method that is based on a consumption regression model. Because this method uses an integral of the partial derivatives of a poverty measure with respect to time, the resulting poverty decomposition satisfies time-reversion consistency and sub-period additivity. Unlike the existing poverty decomposition methods, it allows us to ascribe the observed change in poverty to various covariates of interest collected at a disaggregate level. This method is applied to two datasets from Tanzania to assess, among others, the short- and long-term impacts of infrastructure and market access on poverty.

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Tug-Of-War In The Laboratory, Cary Deck, Roman M. Sheremeta Sep 2015

Tug-Of-War In The Laboratory, Cary Deck, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

Tug-of-war is a multi-battle contest often used to describe extended interactions in economics, management, political science, and other disciplines. While there has been some theoretical work, there is scant empirical evidence regarding behavior in a tug-of-war game. To the best of our knowledge, this paper provides the first experimental study of the tug-of-war. The results show notable deviations of behavior from theory. In the first battle of the tug-of-war, subjects exert fewer resources, while in the follow-up battles, they exert more resources than predicted. Also, contrary to the theoretical prediction, resource expenditures tend to increase in the duration of the …

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Measure Of Location-Based Estimators In Simple Linear Regression, Xijia Liu, Daniel P. A. Preve Sep 2015

Measure Of Location-Based Estimators In Simple Linear Regression, Xijia Liu, Daniel P. A. Preve

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider certain measure of location-based estimators (MLBEs) for the slope parameter in a linear regression model with a single stochastic regressor. The median-unbiased MLBEs are interesting as they can be robust to heavy-tailed samples and, hence, preferable to the ordinary least squares estimator (LSE). Two different cases are considered as we investigate the statistical properties of the MLBEs. In the first case, the regressor and error are assumed to follow a symmetric stable distribution. In the second, other types of regressions, with potentially contaminated errors, are considered. For both cases the consistency and exact finite-sample distributions …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2015, Leonard Lardaro Sep 2015

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2015, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Testing For Spatial Lag And Spatial Error Dependence In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model Using Double Length Artificial Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu Sep 2015

Testing For Spatial Lag And Spatial Error Dependence In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model Using Double Length Artificial Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper revisits the joint and conditional Lagrange Multiplier tests derived by Debarsy and Ertur (2010) for a fixed effects spatial lag regression model with spatial auto-regressive error, and derives these tests using artificial Double Length Regressions (DLR). These DLR tests and their corresponding LM tests are compared using an empirical example and a Monte Carlo simulation.

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Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang Sep 2015

Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study a partially linear dynamic panel data model with fixed effects, where either exogenous or endogenous variables or both enter the linear part, and the lagged dependent variable together with some other exogenous variables enter the nonparametric part. Two types of estimation methods are proposed for the first-differenced model. One is composed of a semiparametric GMM estimator for the finite dimensional parameter and a local polynomial estimator for the infinite dimensional parameter m based on the empirical solutions to Fredholm integral equations of the second kind, and the other is a sieve IV estimate of the …

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Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su Sep 2015

Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider model averaging for quantile regressions (QR) when all models under investigation are potentially misspecified and the number of parameters is diverging with the sample size. To allow for the dependence between the error terms and regressors in the QR models, we propose a jackknife model averaging (JMA) estimator which selects the weights by minimizing a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion function and demonstrate its asymptotic optimality in terms of minimizing the out-of-sample final prediction error. We conduct simulations to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of our estimator and compare it with other model selection and averaging methods. We …

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Bias In The Estimation Of Mean Reversion In Continuous-Time Levy Processes, Yong Bao, Aman Ullah, Yun Wang, Jun Yu Sep 2015

Bias In The Estimation Of Mean Reversion In Continuous-Time Levy Processes, Yong Bao, Aman Ullah, Yun Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the approximate bias of the ordinary least squares estimator of the mean reversion parameter in continuous-time Levy processes. Several cases are considered, depending on whether the long-run mean is known or unknown and whether the initial condition is fixed or random. The approximate bias is used to construct a bias corrected estimator. The performance of the approximate bias and the bias corrected estimator is examined using simulated data.

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How Does The Stock Market Value The Renewable Energy Sector: A Public Announcement Analysis And Test Of The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Jack Crampton Aug 2015

How Does The Stock Market Value The Renewable Energy Sector: A Public Announcement Analysis And Test Of The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Jack Crampton

Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics at Colby

This study analyzes the market reaction to public announcements in the stock market. The efficient market hypothesis is put to test and similar studies are reexamined in the context of the renewable energy sector. Through fixed effects models, we can assess the validity to the efficient market hypothesis and assess how the market values the clean energy sector.

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The Zen Of Charity Giving In China: An Understanding Of The Chinese Philanthropic Sector And Recommendations On Moving Towards Sustainability, Li Zheng Aug 2015

The Zen Of Charity Giving In China: An Understanding Of The Chinese Philanthropic Sector And Recommendations On Moving Towards Sustainability, Li Zheng

Capstone Collection

China has shifted from a centrally planned to a market based economy in 1978. Since then, the country has experienced rapid economic growth and social development. With a more liberal economic environment, the voice of civil society becomes stronger, which incentives the emergence of philanthropy and charitable giving. As a result, the government has begun to encourage private donation and development of foundations, while watching carefully and constraining its activities. By analyzing both qualitative and quantitative data, this paper explores and evaluates the effectiveness of this emerging sector. The paper further advocates for improving current charity law and developing a …

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