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Articles 1 - 30 of 67
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger
From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger
CMC Senior Theses
Regime change may be sought in two primary ways, absent a turn to internal or external violence: through nonviolent resistance, from within, and sanctions, from abroad. This paper is about how those two pathways are intertwined. I challenge two different strands of the existing literature. First, I show that Liou et al. (2022)'s finding that sanctions increase the predicted probability of nonviolent resistance movement progress is subject to substantial upward bias from country heterogeneity. Incorporating country fixed effects, I show that sanctions, on average, have no statistically significant effect on resistance outcomes. Second, I challenge Chenoweth and Stephan (2008)'s argument …
Effects Of External Debt On Inflation In The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz), Collins Anosike
Effects Of External Debt On Inflation In The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz), Collins Anosike
Journal of Global Awareness
This research examined the effect of external public debt on inflation in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) using annual data from 1960 to 2022. The study selected the six member countries of WAMZ, namely: Gambia, Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Ghana, to examine their economic well-being, growth performance, external debt, and inflation over a 63-year period. This study is unique because it examines three periods, namely: pre-WAMZ (1960 to 2000); during WAMZ (2001 to 2022); and the entire period (1960 to 2022), extends previous studies by using updated data, and then shows the long-run positive effect of external …
Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray
Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray
Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences
The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …
The Hidden Logic Behind Migration And Success, Elsa Russom
The Hidden Logic Behind Migration And Success, Elsa Russom
Master's Projects and Capstones
This research paper explores the hidden drivers of financial success among Eritrean migrants navigating uncertainty, displacement, and limited institutional access. Drawing on original survey data collected from diaspora communities across East African host countries, I apply a mixed-methods framework combining ordinal and binary logistic regression, random forest classification, bootstrapping, and Bayesian causal mediation; to identify the structural and cultural variables most predictive of financial stability. The findings reveal that participation in Ekub, a traditional rotating savings association, and engagement in communal support systems are the strongest predictors of financial success, outperforming conventional factors such as age, education, or employment status. …
Elected To Die: The Effect Of Municipal Assassinations On Remittances In Mexico, Victor M. Mendez Robles
Elected To Die: The Effect Of Municipal Assassinations On Remittances In Mexico, Victor M. Mendez Robles
Latin American Studies Honors Projects
This paper looks at localized violence in Mexico through both a qualitative and quantitative approach. Looking at some motivating factors behind violence against political institutions at the municipal level in Mexico. In addition, this paper looks at the relationship between assassinations of municipal mayors in Mexico to see if their assassination leads to changes in remittances in those municipalities in the following periods. This paper uses various difference in difference models to come to its conclusion. There is suggestive evidence of a relationship between remittance growth in municipalities in the periods following an assassination of a mayor currently in office.
Food Self-Sufficiency And Building-Integrated Urban Agriculture: Lessons From Singapore, Tomoki Fujii, Christoph Waibel, Xinyi Du, Zhongming Shi
Food Self-Sufficiency And Building-Integrated Urban Agriculture: Lessons From Singapore, Tomoki Fujii, Christoph Waibel, Xinyi Du, Zhongming Shi
Research Collection School Of Economics
Singapore aims to achieve 30 percent food self-sufficiency by 2030, known as the 30-by-30 target, and this paper reviews Singapore’s changing landscape for urban agriculture and its recent progress towards the 30-by-30 goal, highlighting key challenges such as land constraints, high production costs, and resource limitations. Building-integrated agriculture (BIA), which utilizes building surfaces such as rooftops, façades, and balconies for food production within urban environments, is examined as a potential way to increase self-sufficiency through a simulation. Despite the BIA’s potential, practical issues—including regulatory concerns and infrastructure limitations—must be addressed before it can be implemented at scale. Insights from Singapore’s …
Gauging Growth Risk In An International Financial Centre: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow
Gauging Growth Risk In An International Financial Centre: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper applies the growth-at-risk framework proposed by Adrian et al. (2019) to Singapore, an international financial centre whereby financial shocks are intermediated away quickly. We gauge near-term risks around growth projections taken from the survey of professional forecasters by accounting for financial stress in both local and global financial markets, as well as worldwide economic uncertainty. The conditioning variables are first linked to future growth through quantile regressions, and the estimated quantiles are fitted with skew t-distributions to produce full predictive distributions. Scenario analysis reveals that greater local financial strain tends to widen the uncertainty of growth outlook, higher …
Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi
Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi
Research Collection School Of Economics
Price bubbles in multiple assets are sometimes nearly coincident in occurrence. Such near-coincidence is strongly suggestive of co-movement in the associated asset prices and is likely driven by certain factors that are latent in the financial or economic system with common effects across several markets. Can we detect the presence of such common factors at the early stages of their emergence? To answer this question, we build a factor model that includes I(1), mildly explosive, and stationary factors to capture normal, exuberant, and collapsing phases in such phenomena. The I(1) factor models the primary driving force of market fundamentals. The …
Economic Forecasting In A Pandemic: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy
Economic Forecasting In A Pandemic: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive performance and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the COVID-19 pandemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we use a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting records for GDP growth and CPI inflation for the period 2000Q1–2021Q4. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure duringthe two crises and explore various explanations for it, such as leader-following and herding behaviour. Then, using percentile-based summary measures of probability distribution …
Inflation Dynamics And Expectations In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Inflation Dynamics And Expectations In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Inflation dynamics in Singapore have primarily been shaped by foreign factors, including global inflationary pressures and external macroeconomic shocks. More recently, the normalisation phase of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis has led to domestic price pressures from pent-up demand and supply-chain disruptions. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has resulted in a hike in the global prices of food, energy, and industrial commodities. Using inflation forecasts from the MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters as our measure of inflation expectations, we show that short-term inflation expectations have shifted up recently. Moreover, greater disagreement amongst survey respondents in the more recent surveys suggests individual …
Cities In A Pandemic: Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng, Li Jing, Zhenlin Yang
Cities In A Pandemic: Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng, Li Jing, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies the impact of urban density, city government efficiency, and medical resources on COVID-19 infection and death outcomes in China. We adopt a simultaneous spatial dynamic panel data model to account for (i) the simultaneity of infection and death outcomes, (ii) the spatial pattern of the transmission, (iii) the intertemporal dynamics of the disease, and (iv) the unobserved city-specific and time-specific effects. We find that, while population density increases the level of infections, government efficiency significantly mitigates the negative impact of urban density. We also find that the availability of medical resources improves public health outcomes conditional on …
An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Covid-19 On Trade: Evidence From A Small Island African Economy, Z Khan Jaffur, V Tandrayen-Ragoobur, B Seetanah
An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Covid-19 On Trade: Evidence From A Small Island African Economy, Z Khan Jaffur, V Tandrayen-Ragoobur, B Seetanah
Journal of African Trade
This study investigates the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures on the trade system of Mauritius for the period January 2010 to June 2021. As the pandemic spread across the globe due to high interconnectedness across countries, authorities has also established stringent health containment measures in the form of restrictions on people and businesses to slow the propagation of the virus. Being a small island economy highly dependent on international trade, Mauritius also faced the brunt of the pandemic which disrupted its economic activities and trade flows with its main trading partners. COVID-19 incidence and lockdown …
The Mangrove Walks: An Econometric Analysis Of Climate Migration Drivers From Coastal Bangladesh And Their Geopolitical Impacts, Kendall Scott Byers
The Mangrove Walks: An Econometric Analysis Of Climate Migration Drivers From Coastal Bangladesh And Their Geopolitical Impacts, Kendall Scott Byers
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
Coastal Bangladesh is subject to extreme climate change forces upon poor, rural populations. The aim of this thesis is to determine the strength of environmental drivers of migration and discern whether planned or catastrophic migration predominates in the polder areas of Bangladesh. I use regression analysis on a 1,025 household, 2016 IRRI/IWMI analysis of Polder 28/1, 28/2, and 30 within Satkhira district to determine factor correlations with migration. Progressive salinization is the strongest environmental driver, while flooding decreases migration through trapping household capital investment. Religion has the greatest correlation with migration. Hindus migrate less frequently, but do so with more …
Effectiveness Of Foreign Aid In Poverty Reduction In Africa: The Role Of Fiscal Policy, Iwegbu Onyebuchi, Risikat O. S. Dauda
Effectiveness Of Foreign Aid In Poverty Reduction In Africa: The Role Of Fiscal Policy, Iwegbu Onyebuchi, Risikat O. S. Dauda
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines foreign aid effectiveness in poverty reduction in Africa with focus on the role of regional fiscal policy on education and health. The study employs panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation technique and covers the period 1980-2017. The results reveal that foreign aid augmented with effective fiscal policy on education significantly improves the income level in all the regions except Central Africa, and consumption in the Western and Central regions. When augmented with effective fiscal policy on health foreign aid enhances households’ income in West and Central Africa and consumption in West and Southern regions. Furthermore, foreign …
Opportunity Calls: The Moral Economy During Existential Economic Transition In The Ural Mountains And Appalachia, 1991 - 2008, Nora Springer
Opportunity Calls: The Moral Economy During Existential Economic Transition In The Ural Mountains And Appalachia, 1991 - 2008, Nora Springer
Of Life and History
It is often assumed that economists and businessmen act outside of moral constraints, even in times of existential economic crisis. The econometrics of Chubais and Gaidar, as well as the accounting of Deloitte, have all been used to characterize engineers of transition as cold, academic, and removed from reality. However, in both Appalachia and the Urals, mathematics about what will make a profit is inextricable from moral questions of what should make a profit. The goals of economic transition, and ideology about what economic transition should mean, were baked into the calculations of both transitions. Further, the data used to …
Declining Discount Rates In Singapore's Market For Privately Developed Apartments, Eric Fesselmeyer, Haoming Liu, Alberto Salvo
Declining Discount Rates In Singapore's Market For Privately Developed Apartments, Eric Fesselmeyer, Haoming Liu, Alberto Salvo
Research Collection College of Integrative Studies
Singapore's market for new privately developed apartments exhibits wide quasi-experimental variation in ownership tenure. We develop an empirical model in which prices are decomposed into the utility of housing services and a factor that shifts with asset tenure and the discount rate schedule, which we discipline to vary smoothly over time. We estimate discount rates that decline over time and, to accommodate the observed price differences, fall to 0.5-1.5% p.a. by year 400. The finding that households making sizable transactions do not entirely discount benefits accruing centuries from today is relevant, with the appropriate risk adjustment, for evaluating climate-change investments.
Infrastructure In India's Internal War: A District-Level Analysis Of The Naxalite-Maoist Conflict, Krunal Desai
Infrastructure In India's Internal War: A District-Level Analysis Of The Naxalite-Maoist Conflict, Krunal Desai
Undergraduate Economic Review
Since the last few decades of economic liberalization, India has been experiencing a civil conflict threat by communist insurgents known as Naxalites. Because this group desires to separate themselves from the state through violent means, they began occupying themselves in some of the least developed districts in India. Coincidentally, because of low human development, the Government of India created an infrastructure program known as the Backwards Regions Grant Fund (BRGF) that targets a selected set of districts that lack basic infrastructures such as roads, sanitation facilities, and electrical grids. This study aims to question the notion that government assistance should …
Entrepreneurship In Singapore, Jungho Lee
Entrepreneurship In Singapore, Jungho Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
Singapore has completed its catch-up growth phase and needs to find a new growth engine. Entrepreneurship can contribute to a nation’s productivity growth. The purpose of this chapter is twofold. First, a theoretical framework is presented, along with empirical evidence, to understand government interventions aimed at boosting entrepreneurship. Second, using the framework, the chapter discusses whether Singapore’s current policies are suitable for helping entrepreneurship. The theory demonstrates four reasons why government intervention is needed: (1) resource misallocation, (2) positive externality, (3) entrepreneurial human capital, and (4) tax and default policies. Singapore’s government has implemented various policies that potentially fix market …
Universal Minimum Wage Is Not Suitable For Singapore, Zhengxiao Wu
Universal Minimum Wage Is Not Suitable For Singapore, Zhengxiao Wu
Research Collection School Of Economics
In a commentary, SMU Senior Lecturer of Statistics Wu Zhengxiao examined the concept of a universal minimum wage, and discussed how it is not suitable for Singapore.
Colonial Legacies And Institutional Legitimacy: Explaining Variation In State-Level Informal Economy Size, Makayla Barker
Colonial Legacies And Institutional Legitimacy: Explaining Variation In State-Level Informal Economy Size, Makayla Barker
Political Science Honors Projects
Abstract: Why are some states’ economies more formal than others? This question has critical significance for policy-makers who endeavor to tap into the reservoir of tax revenue and entrepreneurship that informal economies contain. More importantly, large informal economies inhibit public good provision and perpetuate the impoverishment, marginaliza- tion, and political instability of select communities. Despite major variation in the size of informal economies across states, most scholarship on the informal economy concentrates only on the causes and consequences of the phenomenon, while neglecting to address its variation. This thesis builds on a canon of scholarship surrounding colonial legacies, new- institutional …
Understanding The Characteristics Of Remittance Recipients In Venezuela: A Country In Economic Crisis, Nicole A. Degla
Understanding The Characteristics Of Remittance Recipients In Venezuela: A Country In Economic Crisis, Nicole A. Degla
Undergraduate Economic Review
This essay analyzes household surveys from the World Bank Global Financial Inclusion Database for the years 2011, 2014, and 2017, as a means to distinguish individual level characteristics of remittance recipients in Venezuela. Remittances are defined as “crossborder, person-to-person payments of relatively low value. The transfers are typically recurrent payments by migrant workers to their relatives in their home countries (World Bank, 2015). Through the use of a linear probability model and probit regressions, I examine the variables age, gender, education level, and income quintile. Results of the analysis find that age has a statistically significant negative effect on the …
Empowering Female Entrepreneurs Through Mentorship In Medellin, Colombia: Results From The Field, Theresa Solenski
Empowering Female Entrepreneurs Through Mentorship In Medellin, Colombia: Results From The Field, Theresa Solenski
Master's Theses
Utilizing the power of local knowledge and peer networking, this study attempts to quantify the impacts of mentorship among female micro-entrepreneurs in Medellin, Colombia on empowerment. Developing countries such as Colombia have disproportionately high rates of unprofitable micro-businesses, many of which are managed by women. Internal constraints, such as disempowerment, play a central role in perpetuating poverty. We implement a 6-month mentoring intervention by pairing 18 successful entrepreneurs with 52 disadvantaged female, micro-entrepreneurs in Medellin, Colombia to measure the additional benefit of localized knowledge to micro-borrowers. Using a process of random assignment, I measure the change in female empowerment, measured …
Are Menstrual Cycles A Biological Determinant Of Well-Being Amongst Sierra Leonean Schoolchildren?, Ashwini Shridhar
Are Menstrual Cycles A Biological Determinant Of Well-Being Amongst Sierra Leonean Schoolchildren?, Ashwini Shridhar
Master's Theses
The influence of hormones and biology on behavior is a topic that is rife with controversy, especially when it comes to sexual hormones. There is even more murkiness when it comes to the topic of menstruation and knowledge about women’s menstrual cycles. Recent research on this topic have seen a link between the hormonal fluctuations during menstrual cycles and various behavioral implications on competition, cooperation, and risk behavior. This study tries to expand existing knowledge by examining whether there is a link between hormonal fluctuations during menstrual cycles and risk preferential behavior using economic experiments in the largely understudied context …
Given Today's New Wave Of Protectionsim, Is Antitrust Law The Last Hope For Preserving A Free Global Economy Or Another Nail In Free Trade's Coffin?, Allison Murray
Loyola of Los Angeles International and Comparative Law Review
No abstract provided.
A Comparative Analysis On Output Gap - Inflation Relation: The New Keynesian Approach, Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe
A Comparative Analysis On Output Gap - Inflation Relation: The New Keynesian Approach, Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe
Masters Theses
The thrust of this research paper is to examine the inflation information that is contained in the output gap using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve framework. As informed by the model, the study also sets to investigate inflation persistence and the influence of forward inertia on the current inflation. This paper follows the Gali and Monacelli (2005) of the small open-economy type of model. However, the current study differs by introducing external factors (trade and real exchange rate) not only on the hybrid model, also on the backward, forward and the hybrid restricted models for time-series data (1971-2017) of all …
Do Climate Shocks Affect Smallholder Farmers’ Conservation Practices? Evidence From Peru, Heleene Tambet
Do Climate Shocks Affect Smallholder Farmers’ Conservation Practices? Evidence From Peru, Heleene Tambet
Master's Theses
Peruvian agriculture is estimated to be subject to the greatest impacts of climate change in South America. Resulting shifts in rainfall patterns and extreme temperature realizations impose more frequent abnormal weather shocks on farmers and their production decisions. I study the impact of such shocks on agricultural practice choices of farmers growing two main staples, maize and potato; namely, I analyze adoption of practices reducing soil degradation, practices aimed towards water conservation, and application of inorganic fertilizer. I utilize unique cross-sectional data from Peru National Agricultural Survey over the years 2014 to 2016 in conjunction with long-term climate data, and …
Investigating The Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment On Domestic Investment In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Case Study Of Kenya And South Africa, George Anaman
Masters Theses
In the progression towards economic growth, countries consider investment as a critical feature in raising productivity levels by boosting technological progress and reducing the unemployment rate. In recent years, the government of South Africa and Kenya have both enacted policies to entice Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the view of creating more jobs and bolstering the economy. However, in the bid to attract these foreign investors, FDI may either end up complementing or stifling local investments over time. From this perspective, the objective of the study is to investigate the impact of FDI on Domestic Investments in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) …
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
Diebold–Yilmaz spillover indexes are computed for weekly return volatilities based on daily benchmark stock indexes of the US, the UK, and 10 Asian countries. We found (i) the strengthening of overall volatility spillovers is not a temporary surge but persisted after the crisis; (ii) the susceptibility of individual Asian stock markets to inward volatility transfers is linked to its degree of openness; and (iii) the Asian bourses are becoming more important emitters of financial shocks since the crisis. Rolling regressions on volatility linkages reveal the relative dominance of the US over the Japanese and Chinese bourses, and the level of …
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Diebold-Yilmaz spilloverindexes are computed for weekly return volatilities based on daily benchmarkstock indexes of US, UK and ten Asian countries. We found (i) the strengthening ofoverall volatility spillovers is not a temporary surge but persisted after thecrisis; (ii) the susceptibility ofindividual Asian stock markets to inward volatility transfers is linked to itsdegree of openness; and (iii) the Asian bourses are becoming more importantemitters of financial shocks since the crisis. Rolling regressions on volatilitylinkages reveal the relative dominance of the US over the Japanese and Chinesebourses, and the level of influence on Asian stock markets from the Chinesebourse has risen to …
Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions, Alix Naugler
Undergraduate Honors Theses
The nationalistic rhetoric adopted by the newly-elected president’s administration along with the public’s climaxing anti-immigrant hysteria has recently forced Mexican immigration intervention to the top of the U.S. agenda. Misconceptions regarding Mexicans’ role in stealing jobs, threatening cultural and ethnic traditions, and straining public welfare, educational, and healthcare resources have spurred a fear among the American people. This politically-fabricated “schizophrenia” has ceased the political and economic collaboration between the two nations and has resulted in the unilateral militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border. In this evaluation of the U.S. government’s immigration policies, the proposed economic theories related to Mexicans’ motivations in …