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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

In-Fill Asymptotic Theory For Structural Break Point In Autoregression: A Unified Theory, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu May 2017

In-Fill Asymptotic Theory For Structural Break Point In Autoregression: A Unified Theory, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimatorof structural break point in the OrnsteinñUhlenbeck process when a continuousrecord is available. The exact distribution is asymmetric, tri-modal, dependenton the initial condition. These three properties are also found in the önite sampledistribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of structural break point inautoregressive (AR) models. Motivated by these observations, the paper then developsan in-öll asymptotic theory for the LS estimator of structural break point inthe AR(1) coe¢ cient. The in-öll asymptotic distribution is also asymmetric, trimodal,dependent on the initial condition, and delivers excellent approximationsto the önite sample distribution. Unlike …

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On Time-Varying Factor Models: Estimation And Testing, Liangjun Su, Xia Wang May 2017

On Time-Varying Factor Models: Estimation And Testing, Liangjun Su, Xia Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Conventional factor models assume that factor loadings are fixed over a long horizon of time, which appears overly restrictive and unrealistic in applications. In this paper, we introduce a time-varying factor model where factor loadings are allowed to change smoothly over time. We propose a local version of the principal component method to estimate the latent factors and time-varying factor loadings simultaneously. We establish the limiting distributions of the estimated factors and factor loadings in the standard large N and large T framework. We also propose a BIC-type information criterion to determine the number of factors, which can be used …

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A Specification Test Based On The Mcmc Output, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng May 2017

A Specification Test Based On The Mcmc Output, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

A test statistic is proposed to assess themodel specification after the model is estimated by Bayesian MCMC methods. Thenew test is motivated from the power enhancement technique of Fan, Liao and Yao(2015). It combines a component (J1) that tests anull point hypothesis in an expanded model and a power enhancement component (J0) obtained from the null model. It is shown that J0 converges to zero when the null model is correctly specified anddiverges when the null model is misspecified. Also shown is that J1 is asymptotically X2-distributed, suggesting that theproposed test is asymptotically pivotal, when the null model is correctlyspecified. …

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Improved Likelihood Inferences For Weibull Regression Model, Yan Shen, Zhenlin Yang May 2017

Improved Likelihood Inferences For Weibull Regression Model, Yan Shen, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A general procedure is developed for bias-correcting the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the parameters of Weibull regression model with either complete or right-censored data. Following the bias correction, variance corrections and hence improved t-ratios for model parameters are presented. Potentially improved t-ratios for other reliability-related quantities are also discussed. Simulation results show that the proposed method is effective in correcting the bias of the MLEs, and the resulted t-ratios generally improve over the regular t-ratios.

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Robust Jump Regressions, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen May 2017

Robust Jump Regressions, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop robust inference methods for studying linear dependence between the jumps of discretely observed processes at high frequency. Unlike classical linear regressions, jump regressions are determined by a small number of jumps occurring over a fixed time interval and the rest of the components of the processes around the jump times. The latter are the continuous martingale parts of the processes as well as observation noise. By sampling more frequently the role of these components, which are hidden in the observed price, shrinks asymptotically. The robustness of our inference procedure is with respect to outliers, which are of particular …

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Gender, Punishment, And Cooperation: Men Hurt Others To Advance Their Interests, Terence C. Burnham May 2017

Gender, Punishment, And Cooperation: Men Hurt Others To Advance Their Interests, Terence C. Burnham

ESI Working Papers

A laboratory experiment that reports on gender, cooperation, and punishment in two repeated public goods game using high-powered punishment. In a repeated public goods game with punishment, no statistically significant differences between men and women are reported. In a modified game that adds an explicit payoff for relative performance, men punish more than women, men obtain higher rank, and punishment by males decreases payoffs for both men and for women. These results contribute to the debate about the origins and maintenance of cooperation.

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The Retirement Strategy Of Supreme Court Justices: An Economic Approach, Kayla M. Joyce Apr 2017

The Retirement Strategy Of Supreme Court Justices: An Economic Approach, Kayla M. Joyce

Honors Scholar Theses

Previous research has identified strategic behavior in the nomination, confirmation, and retirement processes of the Supreme Court, each independently. This paper analyzes the interaction between the justices, the president, and the Senate in these processes. I constructed a game theoretic model to consider the nomination and approval process of Supreme Court justices and the change in dynamics that might result from an impending election. I hypothesize that sitting justices take into account the party affiliations of the president and the Senate when they are deciding whether it is the optimal time to retire to achieve their own strategic objectives. The …

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Does Where You Grow Up Affect Your Chances Of Being Drafted Into The Nfl?, Walker Head Apr 2017

Does Where You Grow Up Affect Your Chances Of Being Drafted Into The Nfl?, Walker Head

Georgia College Student Research Events

The minimum rookie salary in the National Football League (NFL) is $450,000. First round picks often sign multi-year contracts worth more than $10 million. Players from some states are much more likely to receive college scholarships and eventually be drafted into the NFL, but it is not clear if this is a causal relationship. Utilizing data from Rivals and the NFL, I attempt to determine if where a player grew up has an impact on his chances of being drafted to play professional football. I focus on the top eight states, as it relates to percentage of recruits and my …

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Do Farm Subsidies Affect Crop Diversification?, Chadwick O'Neal Apr 2017

Do Farm Subsidies Affect Crop Diversification?, Chadwick O'Neal

Georgia College Student Research Events

The United States spends $20 billion each year on farm subsidies. Farmers face increased risk and income variation when their crop portfolio is less diversified. It’s possible for farm subsidies to decrease diversification if they are focused on specific crops. Utilizing state level subsidy and agricultural data from the Environmental Working Group, I used econometric analysis to estimate the effect of farm subsidies on crop diversification. I used the number of acres planted from the 15 top most subsidized and grown crops in the United States to derive my dependent variable, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI). The HHI is a market …

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Does Race Impact Judicial Outcomes?, Kameron L. Griffin Apr 2017

Does Race Impact Judicial Outcomes?, Kameron L. Griffin

Georgia College Student Research Events

Over the past decade, many arguments over racial disparity have become the center of worldwide media attention. While many studies have gathered and revealed a consensus of the existence of racial inequality in mass incarceration rates and the criminal justice system, few have investigated the role that race plays in determining severity of punishment. Utilizing Waves 1, 3 and 4 of the Add-Health cross-sectional data set, this paper will estimate and examine the effect being in a minority has on judicial decisions in criminal court. By using traditional OLS procedure in STATA, I estimated the impact that race has on …

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Does An Adoptee’S Race Affect The Probability Of An Interracial Adoption?, Timothy C. Yates Apr 2017

Does An Adoptee’S Race Affect The Probability Of An Interracial Adoption?, Timothy C. Yates

Georgia College Student Research Events

I estimate the effect an adoptee’s race has on their chance of interracial adoption. I use data provided by the 2007 National Survey of Adoptive Parents for the linear regression, one of the only sources of individual data on adopted children. The study tests the idea that adopting outside of one’s race provides greater utility to the adopter since it is perceived as more altruistic relative to adopting within one’s race. For the purpose of the study, any circumstance where at least one adoptive parent differs in race from the adoptee is considered an interracial adoption. Ultimately, the results indicate …

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Does The Effect Of Driving Distance On Pga/Lpga Tour Earnings Differ Across Genders?, Conner R. Albright Apr 2017

Does The Effect Of Driving Distance On Pga/Lpga Tour Earnings Differ Across Genders?, Conner R. Albright

Georgia College Student Research Events

Since the early 21st century, the game of golf has seen a shift in importance of touch and finesse towards power and distance. Though many studies have observed the effects of individual golf statistics on earnings, none have examined if these effects fluctuate between genders. The purpose of my study is to show male and female professional golfers the effects of hitting the ball far and if their practice time might be better off spent practicing other areas of the game. By using player statistics from the 2015 PGA and LPGA cross sectional data set, this paper will examine if …

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New York Camp Econometrics Xii Program, Center For Policy Research Apr 2017

New York Camp Econometrics Xii Program, Center For Policy Research

Camp Econometrics-Programs

No abstract provided.

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Profitable Horizontal Mergers Without Efficiencies Can Increase Consumer Surplus, Charles J. Thomas Apr 2017

Profitable Horizontal Mergers Without Efficiencies Can Increase Consumer Surplus, Charles J. Thomas

ESI Working Papers

In a simple model I show consumer surplus can increase after competing sellers consummate a profitable merger that generates no cost savings. This finding contrasts sharply with the conventional wisdom that horizontal mergers without efficiencies must enhance sellers’ market power to be profitable, thereby harming buyers. The model fits industries in which individual buyers conduct distinct procurement contests for which sellers incur costs to participate, say to assess their product’s fit with the buyer’s preferences. Mergers benefit buyers by inducing stronger contest-level entry, echoing common claims from merging parties that their merger is beneficial because it creates a stronger competitor.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2017, Leonard Lardaro Apr 2017

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Term Structure Of Interest Rates, David Angelo Apr 2017

Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Term Structure Of Interest Rates, David Angelo

Honors Senior Capstone Projects

The goal of this paper is to understand the term structure of interest rates. The term structure of interest rates shows how interest rates on the same assets with different maturities change. The term structure is displayed in what is known as a yield curve. While it is typically upward sloping, the yield curve shifts and changes slope as the economy changes. Looking at the history of yield curve can help predict different phases of the economy over time. During the recent financial crisis, a form of monetary policy, known as quantitative easing (QE), was used to lower long term …

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Fertility And Female Labor Force Participation: The Role Of Legal Access To Contraceptives, Chaney Skadsen Apr 2017

Fertility And Female Labor Force Participation: The Role Of Legal Access To Contraceptives, Chaney Skadsen

Student Research – Stevenson Center

Around the world there has been a global trend of falling fertility rates and increasing female labor force participation rates, simultaneously. The negative association between the two provides impetus to investigate whether fertility acts as an obstruction to the labor market for women and the possibility of incompatibility between motherhood and employee. I find that fertility only acts as an inhibiter to the labor force for women when instrumented with legal access to sterilization as a form of contraception among the other three forms tested. Therefore, when permanent forms of contraceptives are legal and available it allows for more women …

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Granger Causality And Structural Causality In Cross-Section And Panel Data, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su, Halbert White Apr 2017

Granger Causality And Structural Causality In Cross-Section And Panel Data, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su, Halbert White

Research Collection School Of Economics

Granger noncausality in distribution is fundamentally a probabilistic conditional independence notion that can be applied not only to time series data but also to cross-section and panel data. In this paper, we provide a natural definition of structural causality in cross-section and panel data and forge a direct link between Granger (G-) causality and structural causality under a key conditional exogeneity assumption. To put it simply, when structural effects are well defined and identifiable, G-non-causality follows from structural noncausality, and with suitable conditions (e.g., separability or monotonicity), structural causality also implies G-causality. This justifies using tests of G-non-causality to test …

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Asymptotic Theory For Estimating Drift Parameters In The Fractional Vasicek Model, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu Apr 2017

Asymptotic Theory For Estimating Drift Parameters In The Fractional Vasicek Model, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the asymptotic theory for estimators of two parameters in the drift function in the fractional Vasicek model when a continuous record of observations is available. The fractional Vasicek model is assumed to be driven by the fractional Brownian motion with a known Hurst parameter greater than or equal to one half. It is shown that the asymptotic theory for the persistent parameter depends critically on its sign, corresponding asymptotically to the stationary case, the explosive case, and the null recurrent case. In all three cases, the least squares method is considered. When the persistent parameter is positive, …

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The Ideological Roots Of Institutional Change, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin Apr 2017

The Ideological Roots Of Institutional Change, Murat Iyigun, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Why do some societies fail to adopt more efficient institutions in response to changing economic conditions? And why do such conditions sometimes generate ideological backlashes and at other times lead to transformative sociopolitical movements? We propose an explanation that highlights the interplay--or lack thereof--between new technologies, ideologies, and institutions. When new technologies emerge, uncertainty results from a lack of understanding how the technology will fit with prevailing ideologies and institutions. This uncertainty discourages investment in institutions and the cultural capital necessary to take advantage of new technologies. Accordingly, increased uncertainty during times of rapid technological change may generate an ideological …

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The Cultural Transmission Of Trust Norms: Evidence From A Lab In The Field On A Natural Experiment, Jared Rubin, Elira Karaja Apr 2017

The Cultural Transmission Of Trust Norms: Evidence From A Lab In The Field On A Natural Experiment, Jared Rubin, Elira Karaja

ESI Working Papers

We conduct trust games in three villages in a northeastern Romanian commune. From 1775-1919, these villages were arbitrarily assigned to opposite sides of the Habsburg and Ottoman/Russian border despite being located seven kilometers apart. Russian and Ottoman Öscal institutions were more rapacious than Habsburg institutions, which may have eroded trust of outsiders (relative to co-villagers). Our design permits us to rigorously test this conjecture, and more generally, whether historically institutionalized cultural norms are transmitted intergenerationally. We Önd that participants on the Ottoman/Russian side are indeed less likely to trust outsiders but more likely to trust co-villagers.

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Deception And Reception: The Behavior Of Information Providers And Users, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields Mar 2017

Deception And Reception: The Behavior Of Information Providers And Users, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

We investigate the behavior of information providers (underwriters) and users (investors) in a controlled laboratory experiment where underwriters have incentives to deceive and investors have incentives to avoid deception. Participants play simultaneously as underwriters and investors in one-shot information transmission games. The results of our experiment show a significant proportion of both deceptive and non-deceptive underwriters. Despite the presence of deceptive underwriters, investors are receptive to underwriters’ reports, gleaning information content, albeit overly optimistic. Within our sample, deception by underwriters and reception by investors are the most profitable strategies. Moreover, participants who send deceptive reports to investors, but at the …

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Monitoring Institutions In Indefinitely Repeated Games, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari Mar 2017

Monitoring Institutions In Indefinitely Repeated Games, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Does monitoring past conduct facilitate intertemporal cooperation? We designed an experiment characterized by strategic uncertainty and multiple equilibria where coordinating on the efficient outcome is a challenge. Participants, interacting anonymously in a group, could pay a cost either to obtain information about their counterparts, or to create a freely available public record of individual conduct. Both monitoring institutions were actively employed. However, groups were unable to attain higher levels of cooperation compared to a treatment without monitoring. Information about past conduct alone thus appears to be ineffective in overcoming coordination challenges.

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Targeted Campaign Competition, Loyal Voters, And Supermajorities, Pierre C. Boyer, Kai A. Konrad, Brian Roberson Mar 2017

Targeted Campaign Competition, Loyal Voters, And Supermajorities, Pierre C. Boyer, Kai A. Konrad, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

We consider campaign competition in which candidates compete for votes among a continuum of voters by engaging in persuasive efforts that are targetable. Each individual voter is persuaded by campaign effort and votes for the candidate who targets more persuasive effort to this voter. Each candidate chooses a level of total campaign effort and allocates their effort among the set of voters. We completely characterize equilibrium for the majoritarian objective game and compare that to the vote-share maximizing game. If the candidates are symmetric ex ante, both types of electoral competition dissipate the rents from once in expectation. However, the …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2017, Leonard Lardaro Mar 2017

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Savings, Net Foreign Assets And Current Accounts Dynamics In Subsaharan Africa, A. I. Adeleke, W. Ohemeng, K. Ofori-Boateng Mar 2017

Savings, Net Foreign Assets And Current Accounts Dynamics In Subsaharan Africa, A. I. Adeleke, W. Ohemeng, K. Ofori-Boateng

Economic and Financial Review

A profile of the current account balance in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) shows that many countries in the region have consistently experienced current account deficits, dwindling savings and diminishing net foreign assets. These macroeconomic variables convey important information to economic agents about the health of a nation. The relationships among these three important variables in terms of short-run and long-run dynamics are cloudy in the literature. Therefore, this study examined the long-run and short-run dynamics of savings, net foreign assets and current account balance in subSaharan Africa. Utilising panel econometric techniques with annual data from 38 countries in SSA for the …

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Determination Of Optimal Foreign Exchange Reserves For Nigeria, M. Tule, E. Egbuna,, S. Abdusalam, A. Oduyemi Mar 2017

Determination Of Optimal Foreign Exchange Reserves For Nigeria, M. Tule, E. Egbuna,, S. Abdusalam, A. Oduyemi

Economic and Financial Review

The study examined the optimal level of international reserves for Nigeria that is capable of absorbing a shock similar to that experienced during the 2007/2009 Global economic crisis. Using, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation techniques and normalised Johansen cointegrated equation, and setting the maximum and minimum output losses for the entire period, the study found a positive relationship between the odds of default on sovereign debt and fiscal deficit to GDP ratio, short-term debt to reserves ratio and volatility in portfolio investments. In minimising the Bank's cost of holding reserves, the study found that the Nigerian …

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Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi Mar 2017

Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi

Economic and Financial Review

The declining output growth observed from the second quarter of 2014, which led to calls for a more expansionary monetary policy despite rising inflationary pressure, necessitated a reassessment of the impact of interest rate on real output growth in Nigeria. Using a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model and quarterly data from 2000:Q4 to 2015:Q3, the effect of monetary policy transmission (interest rate dynamics) on real output performance was estimated. Although results of the simulation analysis were somewhat mixed, those of the impulse response functions indicated that positive shocks to monetary policy rate (MPR) produced a negative and small impact on …

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Econometric Reviews Honors Esfandiar Maasoumi, Peter C. B. Phillips, Aman Ullah Mar 2017

Econometric Reviews Honors Esfandiar Maasoumi, Peter C. B. Phillips, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

This Special Issue of Econometric Reviews (ER) is a tribute to Esfandiar Maasoumi for his longstanding contributions to the econometrics profession as an outstanding researcher, a revered teacher and supervisor, and a journal editor of three decades, all of which manifests his extraordinary devotion to the discipline of econometrics and to its growing community of students and scholars. Essie, as he is universally known to his friends, colleagues, and the international community, took on the editorship of ER in 1987. At that point, as (very) senior members of the profession will remember, the journal had a paperback cover, no formal …

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Reduced Forms And Weak Instrumentation, Peter C. B. Phillips Mar 2017

Reduced Forms And Weak Instrumentation, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops exact finite sample and asymptotic distributions for a class of reduced form estimators and predictors, allowing for the presence of unidentified or weakly identified structural equations. Weak instrument asymptotic theory is developed directly from finite sample results, unifying earlier findings and showing the usefulness of structural information in making predictions from reduced form systems in applications. Asymptotic results are reported for predictions from models with many weak instruments. Of particular interest is the finding that, in unidentified and weakly identified structural models, partially restricted reduced form predictors have considerably smaller forecast mean square errors than unrestricted reduced …

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