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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Assessing Healthcare Access Among Overweight And Obese Individuals In Türkiye Using Latent Variable Modeling, Banu Beyaz Sipahi Aug 2026

Assessing Healthcare Access Among Overweight And Obese Individuals In Türkiye Using Latent Variable Modeling, Banu Beyaz Sipahi

Makara Journal of Health Research

Background: Overweight and obesity are critical determinants of healthcare access, yet evidence on how the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped these dynamics in Türkiye remains limited. This study investigates whether the early post-pandemic recovery period altered healthcare access patterns for individuals with excess weight.

Methods: Using nationally representative microdata from the 2014, 2016, 2019, and 2022 Turkish Health Surveys, we constructed a latent Healthcare Access Index based on six indicators of unmet care needs. Probit models were estimated to assess associations between BMI categories and healthcare access, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. The 2022 wave serves as the early …


Usability Of Bitcoin As Currency In Türkiye: Fourier Shin Approach, İsmail Cem Özkurt, Deniz Özyakışır, Yunus Kutval Jul 2026

Usability Of Bitcoin As Currency In Türkiye: Fourier Shin Approach, İsmail Cem Özkurt, Deniz Özyakışır, Yunus Kutval

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This paper seeks to assess the feasibility of utilizing Bitcoin as a currency within Türkiye. To achieve this, the research analyzes long-term cointegration relationships between Bitcoin and both the US Dollar and Euro, employing monthly data from November 2017 to February 2025 and utilizing the Fourier Shin cointegration test. The results of the cointegration tests, bolstered by Fourier series analysis, reveal significant long-term cointegration relationships between Bitcoin and both the USD and Euro. The DOLS analysis indicates that a 1% rise in Bitcoin leads to a 14% decrease in the USD price and a 17% increase in the Euro. These …


Mengukur Capaian Dan Identifikasi Konvergensi Pembangunan Infrastruktur Antarprovinsi Di Indonesia, Ressa Isnaini Arumnisaa', Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih Jul 2026

Mengukur Capaian Dan Identifikasi Konvergensi Pembangunan Infrastruktur Antarprovinsi Di Indonesia, Ressa Isnaini Arumnisaa', Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Indonesia’s economic challenges are characterized by stagnant economic growth and regional development disparities. This study analyzes the achievement and convergence of infrastructure development across provinces in Indonesia during 2011–2021 through the construction of an Infrastructure Development Index (IPI). The study employs panel data from 33 provinces, using factor analysis to construct the IPI and the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD-GMM) to examine convergence and its determinants. The results show that many provinces still have IDI scores below the national average. Furthermore, the FD-GMM model shows that σ-convergence and β-convergence occur in Indonesia. In addition, GRDP per capita, inflation, …


Evaluasi Dampak Digitalisasi Regional Terhadap Pembangunan Berkelanjutan Di Indonesia, Tomi Setiawan, Muhammad Farras Samith, Shifwah Murran Nashifa Jul 2026

Evaluasi Dampak Digitalisasi Regional Terhadap Pembangunan Berkelanjutan Di Indonesia, Tomi Setiawan, Muhammad Farras Samith, Shifwah Murran Nashifa

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Digitalization has become a key pillar in driving economic, social, and governance transformation in Indonesia. However, it is necessary to verify whether digitalization has supported sustainable development goals. This study evaluates the impact of digitalization on sustainability dimensions at the district/city level in Indonesia using the Propensity Score Matching (PSM). The results show that digitalization has a significant negative impact on environmental quality. Conversely, the impact on the economy and social welfare is not statistically significant, indicating that the benefits of digitalization are not evenly distributed and tend to be concentrated among groups that already have digital access and capabilities.


Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Nikel: Kuasi-Eksperimen Di Sulawesi, Siddiq Robbani, Uka Wikarya Jan 2026

Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Nikel: Kuasi-Eksperimen Di Sulawesi, Siddiq Robbani, Uka Wikarya

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Studi ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan larangan ekspor bijih nikel (2014–2016) dan pembangunan smelter (2009–2021) terhadap PDRB per kapita dan konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita menggunakan data panel seimbang dari 81 kabupaten/kota di Sulawesi periode 2006–2021. Dampak kausal dan efek spillover dianalisis menggunakan metode Difference-in-Difference (DiD) dan Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan kebijakan larangan ekspor tidak berdampak pada kedua variabel. Pembangunan smelter justru berdampak negatif terhadap PDRB per kapita, tetapi menghasilkan efek spillover positif pada PDRBperkapita daerah tetangga dan efek spillover negatif terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita di daerah non-smelter.


The Moderating Effect Of Income Inequality On The Income–Emissions Relationship In G20 Countries, Zahra Rizky Fadilah, Budiasih Budiasih Dec 2025

The Moderating Effect Of Income Inequality On The Income–Emissions Relationship In G20 Countries, Zahra Rizky Fadilah, Budiasih Budiasih

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study analyzes the moderating effect of income inequality on the income–emissions relationship in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. Findings indicate that the relationship is inverted U-shaped in middle-income G20 countries, but monotonically increasing in high-income G20 countries. Interestingly, income inequality moderates this relationship only in the latter group. These findings suggest that middle-income G20 countries should focus on raising income per capita to mitigate environmental degradation, while their high-income counterparts need to prioritize reducing income inequality to effectively decouple income from emissions.


The Effect Of Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, And Energy Use On Co₂ Emissions In Indonesia: An Ardl Analysis, Raihan Ahmad Mustofa, Mariam Kamila, Rininta Nurrachmi, Syifa Shafnastiara Oct 2025

The Effect Of Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, And Energy Use On Co₂ Emissions In Indonesia: An Ardl Analysis, Raihan Ahmad Mustofa, Mariam Kamila, Rininta Nurrachmi, Syifa Shafnastiara

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract This study examines the dynamic relationship between renewable energy consumption, total energy use, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions in Indonesia over the period 1990–2021 using an ARDL approach. The results show a stable long-run relationship with quick adjustment after shocks. In the long run, energy consumption is associated with higher CO₂ emissions, reflecting the continued dominance of fossil fuels. Renewable energy helps reduce emissions in the short term, but its long-term impact remains statistically insignificant. GDP does not show a significant effect, suggesting that meaningful decarbonization will require a more intensive shift in the energy mix.

Keywords: ARDL, renewable …


Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Insentif Fiskal Terhadap Tingkat Komponen Dalam Negeri (Tkdn) Industri Manufaktur Di Indonesia, Muhammad Muhammad, Riyanto Riyanto Sep 2025

Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Insentif Fiskal Terhadap Tingkat Komponen Dalam Negeri (Tkdn) Industri Manufaktur Di Indonesia, Muhammad Muhammad, Riyanto Riyanto

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Over the last decade, the manufacturing sector's contribution to Indonesia's economy has declined. In 2010, it was 29.10% of GDP, but by 2022, it had dropped to 19.14%. Employment in the sector also fell, from 14.91% of the workforce in 2010 to 13.80% in 2022. To reverse this trend, the government introduced a policy to boost the Domestic Component Level (DCL) in manufacturing. By offering fiscal incentives to industries meeting certain DCL targets, the government aims to drive economic growth and job creation. A study using BPS data from 2008-2019 shows that this policy raised DCL by 23.5%.


Pengaruh Demokrasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Daerah Di Indonesia, Jayanti Kusumaningrum Utomo, Widyono Soetjipto Jul 2025

Pengaruh Demokrasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Daerah Di Indonesia, Jayanti Kusumaningrum Utomo, Widyono Soetjipto

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This study observes that previous research on the relationship between democracy and economic growth has produced ambiguous outcomes. The aim of this paper is to estimate the relationship between democracy and regional economic growth in Indonesia. Using a fixed effects model with 374 provincial-level observations, the results indicate a statistically significant and positive relationship between democracy and regional economic growth in Indonesia.


Pengaruh Vaksinasi Covid-19 Terhadap Kesehatan Dan Kondisi Ekonomi Masyarakat Di Indonesia, Ayu Lestari, Fauziah Zen Jul 2025

Pengaruh Vaksinasi Covid-19 Terhadap Kesehatan Dan Kondisi Ekonomi Masyarakat Di Indonesia, Ayu Lestari, Fauziah Zen

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

The COVID-19 vaccination is considered crucial for controlling the pandemic and accelerating economic recovery. However, empirical evidence on the impact of vaccination on health and the economy at the district/city level in Indonesia remains limited. This study aims to analyze the impact of vaccination on health outcomes and economic conditions. The methodology used is a fixed effect model with monthly panel data on vaccination and health outcomes (positivity rate and recovery), as well as annual data on per capita expenditure in 514 districts/cities from January 2021 to December 2022. The results show that the first dose of vaccination significantly reduces …


Determinants Of Catastrophic Health Expenditure Of Households In Indonesia, Rafa Fayza Afrizal, Novira Hasya, Faticha Putri Harda, Wildan Avif Alfathin, Vanissa Nur Latifah, Maxent Rael Nainggolan, Fadillah Rahmah Jaelani, Estro Dariatno Sihaloho Jun 2025

Determinants Of Catastrophic Health Expenditure Of Households In Indonesia, Rafa Fayza Afrizal, Novira Hasya, Faticha Putri Harda, Wildan Avif Alfathin, Vanissa Nur Latifah, Maxent Rael Nainggolan, Fadillah Rahmah Jaelani, Estro Dariatno Sihaloho

Jurnal Ekonomi Kesehatan Indonesia

The need for healthcare services due to illness is unpredictable, thus burdening patients economically and posing a risk of catastrophic events. The percentage of households with catastrophic health expenditures is defined as out-of-pocket payments exceeding 10% of the household’s capacity to pay for healthcare. Increasing catastrophic expenditure costs can further deteriorate the household’s financial condition. This study analyzes the determinants of catastrophic health expenditures in Indonesian households. A total of 12,892 household samples from the cross-sectional Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) wave 5 (2014) were used in this study. Using a logistic regression model, this study aims to identify various …


Status Sosial Ekonomi Dan Pengeluaran Oop Kesehatan Penyandang Disabilitas, Maxent Rg Nainggolan, Riki Relaksana Jun 2025

Status Sosial Ekonomi Dan Pengeluaran Oop Kesehatan Penyandang Disabilitas, Maxent Rg Nainggolan, Riki Relaksana

Jurnal Ekonomi Kesehatan Indonesia

In 2020, the number of persons with disabilities in Indonesia reached 22.97 million. One of the main challenges this population faces is the high burden of health expenditures, particularly those that are urgent and unpredictable. This study aims to analyze the influence of socioeconomic status on out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures among households with persons with disabilities in Indonesia. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data from the 2022 National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), utilizing the core module (KOR) and the household expenditure module (KP). Data were analyzed using the two-part regression model to identify the determinants of OOP health spending. …


Environmental-Friendly Consumption: Measuring The Impact Of Lifestyle On Household Carbon Emissions, Faisal Madjid Alyasa, Adam Hawari, Afif Akbar Syawala, Estro Dariatno Dariatno Sihaloho Jun 2025

Environmental-Friendly Consumption: Measuring The Impact Of Lifestyle On Household Carbon Emissions, Faisal Madjid Alyasa, Adam Hawari, Afif Akbar Syawala, Estro Dariatno Dariatno Sihaloho

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

In 2060, Indonesia aims for a clean, emissions-free society. However, achieving this goal requires understanding how lifestyle choices affect household carbon emissions. This study, based on data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey 2014, examines the impact of different diets (plant-based, vegetarian, Mediterranean, full meat-based, and mixed) on carbon emissions. Using Ordinary Least Square Panel Data Regression, the research finds that plant-based and vegetarian diets have a lower carbon footprint compared to mixed and full meat-based diets. The findings suggest that transitioning to more environmentally friendly consumption patterns can help reduce carbon emissions and benefit the environment.


Eksplorasi Dinamika Antara Internet Dan Kemiskinan Multidimensional Di Indonesia: Pendekatan Kuasi-Eksperimental, Kleovan Nathanael Gunawan Jan 2025

Eksplorasi Dinamika Antara Internet Dan Kemiskinan Multidimensional Di Indonesia: Pendekatan Kuasi-Eksperimental, Kleovan Nathanael Gunawan

Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

Poverty is a dynamic, diverse, and multidimensional concept. Its definition has evolved over time, moving from a monetary focus to a multidimensional perspective. Although poverty reduction has long been a critical issue, few studies have examined the role of the internet in addressing multidimensional poverty. To bridge this gap in the literature, this study explores the impact of internet access on multidimensional poverty in Indonesia, using data from the 2023 Susenas survey. Based on Propensity Score Matching results, evidence shows that internet access negatively affects multidimensional poverty. This research underscores the importance of internet access, highlighting the need for policies …


Total Factor Productivity Industri Mikro Dan Kecil Di Kawasan Timur Indonesia, Marella Dea Manganti, Budyanra Budyanra Jan 2025

Total Factor Productivity Industri Mikro Dan Kecil Di Kawasan Timur Indonesia, Marella Dea Manganti, Budyanra Budyanra

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

The Micro and Small Industries (MSIs) sector, part of non-oil and gas processing industry, is a key driver of the Indonesia’s economy. However, in Eastern Indonesia (EI), the number of industries and workers in the MSIs sector does not match the level of output, unlike in Western Indonesia, where the industry is more stable and aligned. This difference is mainly due to variations in technological progress, known as Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This study analyzes TFP in the MSIs sector across provinces in EI from 2013 to 2022 using panel data regression. Results show that South Sulawesi has the highest …


External Financing, Governance, And Infrastructure Development: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, Afees Oluwashina Noah, Oladipo Olalekan David Dec 2024

External Financing, Governance, And Infrastructure Development: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, Afees Oluwashina Noah, Oladipo Olalekan David

CSID Journal of Infrastructure Development

Infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) requires diversified financing strategies to address a significant funding shortfall that cannot be met by domestic resources alone. This research evaluates the contributions of external financing—namely Official Development Assistance (ODA), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI)—in complementing domestic efforts to advance infrastructure in SSA. It examines their influence, alongside governance, on the development of physical and social infrastructure components. Employing methodologies such as Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) across 43 SSA economies from 2000 to 2022, the analysis reveals that FDI substantially enhances physical …


How Can Monetary Policy And Digitalization Enhance Economic Productivity Among Oic Members?, Basri Basri, Muhammad Akbar Ramadhani Nov 2024

How Can Monetary Policy And Digitalization Enhance Economic Productivity Among Oic Members?, Basri Basri, Muhammad Akbar Ramadhani

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

Studi ini bertujuan untuk menentukan dampak suku bunga, jumlah uang beredar, dan pengembangan TIK terhadap PDB per kapita dengan menggunakan pendekatan panel heterogen dinamis (panel ARDL) pooled mean group (PMG). Temuan kami menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter memainkan peran penting bagi pendapatan per kapita di seluruh negara OKI pada tingkat pendapatan yang berbeda. Bagi OKI secara keseluruhan, suku bunga memiliki dampak positif dalam jangka panjang tetapi tidak berpengaruh dalam jangka pendek. Bagi sebagian besar LMIC dan UMIC, kenaikan suku bunga cenderung meningkatkan pendapatan per kapita, sedangkan bagi sebagian besar negara LIC, hubungannya negatif. Jumlah uang beredar memiliki dampak negatif terhadap pendapatan …


Pengaruh Larangan Ekspor Karang Hias Terhadap Kondisi Terumbu Karang Di Indonesia, Fitrian Dwi Cahyo, Muhammad Halley Yudhistira Oct 2024

Pengaruh Larangan Ekspor Karang Hias Terhadap Kondisi Terumbu Karang Di Indonesia, Fitrian Dwi Cahyo, Muhammad Halley Yudhistira

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Indonesia has the largest coral population in the world, contributed as the world’s second largest ornamental corals exporter after Japan. Coral trade sparked the issues of habitat destruction, illegal trade, and coral health problems has prompted the government to banning of ornamental coral export. This study aims to find an empirical evidence does the policies mentioned above affect the condition of coral reefs in Indonesia. The author uses the Fixed-Effect Model on the Difference in Difference regression equation whose result show that export banning of ornamental corals does not significantly affect the condition of coral reefs in Indonesia.


The Effect Of Crime On Tourism In Indonesia, Muhammad Farhan, Hera Susanti Jul 2024

The Effect Of Crime On Tourism In Indonesia, Muhammad Farhan, Hera Susanti

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

Tourism sector is widely known as one of economic sectors that can be the engine of economic growth in an effort to reduce poverty in a country. However, growth in the tourism sector can be influenced by safety factors. Tourists tend to avoid tourism destination areas with high crime rates in order to avoid becoming victims of crime. This study aims to analyze the effect of crime on the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia by using four proxies of crime, which are total crime rate, property crime rate, violent crime rate, and fraud crime rate. This study utilizes a …


The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And The Stock Market Cycle: An Empirical Study In Vietnam, Nhung Thuy Tran Jul 2024

The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And The Stock Market Cycle: An Empirical Study In Vietnam, Nhung Thuy Tran

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The study examines the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle in Vietnam. Using data from 2007 to 2022 and employing a VAR model, we estimate the impact of monetary policy factors on stock market cycle variables. The findings confirm a two-way causal relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle. However, the influence of cyclical fluctuations on the monetary policy transmission mechanism is weak, exhibits a lag, and predominantly occurs in the medium and long term. These results indicate that Vietnam's monetary policy requires time to absorb financial shocks and adjust to economic conditions. The study …


Unraveling The Effects Of Transfer Pricing Documentation Regulation: Indonesia’ Evidence, Anggari Dwi Saputra Dec 2023

Unraveling The Effects Of Transfer Pricing Documentation Regulation: Indonesia’ Evidence, Anggari Dwi Saputra

Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Indonesia

To counter tax avoidance using transfer mispricing practices, Indonesia introduced a transfer pricing documentation policy. This policy requires taxpayers to be transparent with their transfer pricing decisions. Treating the implementation of this policy as a shock to the taxpayers, this paper examines how the transfer pricing documentation policy affects a firm's tax avoidance behaviour by employing regression discontinuity design and difference-in-difference. Immediately after introducing the policy, a regression discontinuity analysis results indicate a 0.9 percentage point increase in tax/sales among taxpayers obligated to prepare transfer pricing documentation. A 0.3 to 0.7 percentage point increase in the tax/sales of the treatment …


The Effect Of Export-Related Measures On Indonesian Export Of Palm, Cpo, And Its Derivative Products, Edy Krismanto Sipayung, Christina Ruth Elisabeth Dec 2023

The Effect Of Export-Related Measures On Indonesian Export Of Palm, Cpo, And Its Derivative Products, Edy Krismanto Sipayung, Christina Ruth Elisabeth

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigated the effect of Export-Related Measures (ERMs) imposed by the Government of Indonesia on the export volume and value of palm, Crude Palm Oil (CPO), and its derivatives products utilizing the export data of Indonesia to 194 destination countries in the 2011–2020 period. This study combined the dataset of ERMs from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database and relevant Indonesian regulations. The results reveal that ERMs have a positive and significant effect on both the export volume and value of Indonesian palm, CPO, and its derivatives products. The price-raising effect or costs of ERMs …


Exchange Rate Responses And Volatility Spillover Effects During The Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia, Panky Tri Febiyansah Dec 2023

Exchange Rate Responses And Volatility Spillover Effects During The Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia, Panky Tri Febiyansah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper aims to assess the impact of the confirmed COVID-19 cases, the timing of the outbreak, and physical measures on the returns and spillover effects of exchange rate in Indonesia. The model will be tested by the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) process and the spillover volatility index. The study discovers that the confirmed cases, outbreak news, and the implementation of large-scale social restrictions simultaneously contribute to a leverage effect on the volatility of a direct quote of Indonesian Rupiah to Australian Dollar, Euro, US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, and Great British Pound. To a certain extent, the heatwave …


Regresi Ambang Untuk Mendalami Pengaruh Nonlinier Kekuatan Pasar Terhadap Pinjaman Bank Di Asean-5, Mahjus Ekananda Jul 2023

Regresi Ambang Untuk Mendalami Pengaruh Nonlinier Kekuatan Pasar Terhadap Pinjaman Bank Di Asean-5, Mahjus Ekananda

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Credit distribution has developed rapidly in the ASEAN region and it is largely dominated by the banking sector compared to other financial institutions. This study explores the effects of various changes to the GDP growth regime, firm size, and monetary policy. The objects of this research are commercial banks in ASEAN-5 from year 2010 to 2019. This study utilises the threshold regression method and a single proxy to measure market power. Results of this study found that monetary policy and market forces affect productive credit. Changes in impact that occur are mostly due to different behavior between banks in response …


Assessing The Impact Of Financial Obstacles On Manufacturing Firm's Capacity Utilization: Bayesian Approach, Arab Dahir Hassan, Razim Ozcan Jan 2023

Assessing The Impact Of Financial Obstacles On Manufacturing Firm's Capacity Utilization: Bayesian Approach, Arab Dahir Hassan, Razim Ozcan

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study aims to investigate the relationship between financial obstacles and the capacity utilization of manufacturing firms. This study departs from previous studies in the literature by employing Bayesian linear regression analysis. The results demonstrate that financial constraints have a considerable negative effect on the capacity utilization of manufacturing enterprises, but access to credit lines has a positive effect. The sample consists of 1,494 private manufacturing firms in 31 Europe & Central Asian countries. Financial obstacles were perceived as the major impediment to business operations by 65% of the enterprises in the survey. Furthermore, 52% of enterprises in the sample …


Vector Autoregression Analysis Of The Relationship Between Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, And Exchange Rate To The Jakarta Islamic Index, Ajeng Qurrota A'Yun, Nur Fatwa Jan 2022

Vector Autoregression Analysis Of The Relationship Between Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, And Exchange Rate To The Jakarta Islamic Index, Ajeng Qurrota A'Yun, Nur Fatwa

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

ABSTRACT

The Indonesian Sharia Capital Market is an interesting thing to study because based on the 2019 Global Islamic Finance Report (GIFR) report, Indonesia is ranked first in the Global Sharia Financial Market. The Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) is the sharia stock index that was first launched on the Indonesian capital market on July 3, 2000 and only consisted of the 30 most liquid Islamic shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study will try to uncover how the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia by using Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and using monthly secondary data from 2012-2019. VAR …