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2010

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Articles 1 - 30 of 172

Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Estimating A Small-Scale Macroeconometric Model (Ssmm) For Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Approach, Charlse N.O Mordi, Michael A. Adebiyi Dec 2010

Estimating A Small-Scale Macroeconometric Model (Ssmm) For Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Approach, Charlse N.O Mordi, Michael A. Adebiyi

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper attempts to develop a small scale macroeconometric model for the Nigerian economy using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) methodology. Particular attention is paid to using impulse responses to explain the dynamic properties of the model. This model incorporates expectation as an anchor in the forward-looking monetary policy objective of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). It captures most of the channels through which policymakers believe monetary policy can influence a small open economy with a managed floating exchange rate. The model was taken to the data by means of Bayesian estimation with the following major findings. First, although …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — December 2010, Leonard Lardaro Dec 2010

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — December 2010, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis Dec 2010

Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper uses a DSGE-VAR model to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and asks if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate with a Taylor rule inflation-targeting mechanism that uses the short term interest rate instead of the exchange rate as the benchmark monetary policy instrument. Our simulation results show that the use of a more flexible exchange rate system will reduce volatility in inflation and investment but consumption volatility will increase. Overall, there are neither signi…cant welfare gains or losses in the regime shift. Given the highly open and trade …

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Testing Structural Change In Partially Linear Models, Liangjun Su, Halbert White Dec 2010

Testing Structural Change In Partially Linear Models, Liangjun Su, Halbert White

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider two tests of structural change for partially linear time-series models. The first tests for structural change in the parametric component, based on the cumulative sums of gradients from a single semiparametric regression. The second tests for structural change in the parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously, based on the cumulative sums of weighted residuals from the same semiparametric regression. We derive the limiting distributions of both tests under the null hypothesis of no structural change and for sequences of local alternatives. We show that the tests are generally not asymptotically pivotal under the null but may be free of …

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Clearing House And Counterparty Default Risk In Derivatives Market, Poonam Mehra Nov 2010

Clearing House And Counterparty Default Risk In Derivatives Market, Poonam Mehra

Poonam Singh Mehra

No abstract provided.

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Institutional Structure And Decision Making In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Nov 2010

Institutional Structure And Decision Making In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The study here presented reviews the institutional structure of the Sudanese government. Truly, though it is stigmatized as totalitarian, the structure is phenotypically perfect. Ministry of Ministries council is supposed to cater for analyzing data concerning ministries performance, drawing strategic planning, executing them through ministries and conduct the follow-ups. Department of decision-making was created and packages for data collection and analyses were improvised. However, all these structures seem skeletal as the final decisions structurally seem to be lost between the Presidency Institution and the executive institutions. An introduced flowing chart indicates that the cycle of all decisions end up at …

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The International Society And The Sudanese National Disintegration, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Nov 2010

The International Society And The Sudanese National Disintegration, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The political crisis of Sudan is amplified everyday with the expansion of civil conflict from Darfur to Southern Kordofan state. The inevitable secession of Southern Sudan is threatened by the chronic crisis of Abyei pocket between the north and the south that saw open war between the two opponents; the Sudanese army and Popular Liberation of Sudan. Nevertheless, the Attorney General of the International Criminal Court, Ocambo vocalizes more concerns of humanitarian sufferings and war crimes that he claims to be continuing despite of peaceful negotiations. Such situation seems irrational with the de facto state of war that currently prevails …

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The Impact Of Tribal Structure On The Economic Parameters And Conflicts Between North And South Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Nov 2010

The Impact Of Tribal Structure On The Economic Parameters And Conflicts Between North And South Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The crisis of Greater Darfur Region of Sudan extends to other regions as the South Sudan prepares for secession next July 2011. In the past eight years Sudan's crisis in Darfur was amplified by global news media all over the world. Civil conflict erupted, developed into armed rebellions and open uncontrolled war that enveloped the whole region. The current inflamed undecided and unmarked future borders between the south and north are also facing growing tensions. In this current paper we present some information on what we see as the seeds of conflicts with complicated tribal structures in both sides and …

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Spatial Econometrics And Spillover Effects In Panel Data: Evidence From The Swiss Cantons' Expenditure, Anjeza Kadilli Nov 2010

Spatial Econometrics And Spillover Effects In Panel Data: Evidence From The Swiss Cantons' Expenditure, Anjeza Kadilli

Anjeza Kadilli

No abstract provided.

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Fend For Sudan Unity, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Nov 2010

Fend For Sudan Unity, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Sudan is unified as a country by many bonds that are also reasons for it disintegration. From the year 2005 where Nivasha Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the North and South parts, to 2011 the efforts of dividing the country were evident. From 2005, many analysts, tried to warn of the coming consequences of the Southern part secession. There were calls for improvements of the current regime's totalitarianism, open the doors for democracy, sharing people in power and decision making and amending human standards and freedom. However, all calls fell on deaf ears. The Darfur crisis accelerated and the regime clutch …

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Energy And Economic Growth: A State-Level Analysis, Nathanael D. Peach Nov 2010

Energy And Economic Growth: A State-Level Analysis, Nathanael D. Peach

Faculty Publications - College of Business

No abstract provided.

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International Trade, Structural Deformations And Hegemony In Islamic And Arabic Countries, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed, Dr. Mohamed A. Osman Nov 2010

International Trade, Structural Deformations And Hegemony In Islamic And Arabic Countries, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed, Dr. Mohamed A. Osman

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Contemporary world economic situation seems gloomy with the shadows of recession in many big economies. There attempts to rectify that situation with domestic restructuring and improvements in social parameters. However, it is imperative that holistic approaches should be reviewed whereas part of them are helping developing economies to improve productivity and expand their exports and imports. The books reviews issues of international trade as presented in theories and de facto applications. Historical backgrounds are analyzed to emphasize their impacts on the present situations. Within the parameters discussed are crusades and ensuing colonization. All these foot prints are still engraved in …

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State Institutionalization, Governance And Decision Making In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Nov 2010

State Institutionalization, Governance And Decision Making In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The study here presented reviews the institutional structure of the Sudanese government. Truly, though it is stigmatized as totalitarian, the structure is phenotypically perfect. Ministry of Ministries council is supposed to cater for analyzing data concerning ministries performance, drawing strategic planning, executing them through ministries and conduct the follow-ups. Department of decision-making was created and packages for data collection and analyses were improvised. However, all these structures seem skeletal as the final decisions structurally seem to be lost between the Presidency Institution and the executive institutions. An introduced flowing chart indicates that the cycle of all decisions end up at …

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The Drivers And Dynamics Of Illicit Financial Flows From India: 1948-2008, Dev Kar Nov 2010

The Drivers And Dynamics Of Illicit Financial Flows From India: 1948-2008, Dev Kar

Dev Kar

No abstract provided.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2010, Leonard Lardaro Nov 2010

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2010, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu Nov 2010

Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact finite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on devian information criterion …

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Banks' Reserves Restrictions And Macroeconomic Parameters Of Sudanese Economy (2007-2009), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Oct 2010

Banks' Reserves Restrictions And Macroeconomic Parameters Of Sudanese Economy (2007-2009), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The paper analyzes the impacts of Islamic and conventional Banks reserves' restrictions in Sudan. Comprehensively, those restrictions are necessary for health banks, performance and the viability of the macroeconomic performance in any country. The selected period of the analysis (2007-2009) is vital to study impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on the Sudanese economy. The paper introduces available data on banks institutions, macroeconomic policies and the central Bank of Sudan considering its part on controlling money supply and demand besides drawing policies for banks behaviors. It is conceivable from my conclusions here that there are conflicts between conventional and Islamic …

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Men In Black: The Impact Of New Contracts On Football Referees’ Performances, Babatunde Buraimo, Alex Bryson, Rob Simmons Oct 2010

Men In Black: The Impact Of New Contracts On Football Referees’ Performances, Babatunde Buraimo, Alex Bryson, Rob Simmons

Dr Babatunde Buraimo

No abstract provided.

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New York Camp Econometrics V Program, Center For Policy Research Oct 2010

New York Camp Econometrics V Program, Center For Policy Research

Camp Econometrics-Programs

No abstract provided.

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Border Metropolitan Water Forecast Accuracy, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr. Oct 2010

Border Metropolitan Water Forecast Accuracy, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr.

Border Region Modeling Project

Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research due to infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary “grey literature.” This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive …

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A Conversation With Eric Ghysels, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Oct 2010

A Conversation With Eric Ghysels, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Eric Ghysels is the Bernstein Distinguished Professor of Economics and Professor of Finance at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. In 2008, Eric Ghysels and Robert Engle (2003 Nobel co-Laureate in Economic Science with Clive Granger) founded the Society for Financial Econometrics (SoFiE), establishing a global network of academics and practitioners dedicated to the fast-growing field of financial econometrics. In June 2010, Eric visited the Centre for Financial Econometrics (CoFiE) and the Sim Kee Boon Institute (SKBI) of Financial Economics at Singapore Management University. During his visit we conversed with him about SoFiE and the growing toolroom of financial …

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Smoothing Local-To-Moderate Unit Root Theory, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos, Liudas Giraitis Oct 2010

Smoothing Local-To-Moderate Unit Root Theory, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos, Liudas Giraitis

Research Collection School Of Economics

A limit theory is established for autoregressive time series that smooths the transition between local and moderate deviations from unity and provides a transitional form that links conventional unit root distributions and the standard normal. Edgeworth expansions of the limit theory are given. These expansions show that the limit theory that holds for values of the autoregressive coefficient that are closer to stationarity than local (i.e. deviations of the form rho = 1 + c/n, where n is the sample size and c < 0) holds up to the second order. Similar expansions around the limiting Cauchy density are provided for the mildly explosive case. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — October 2010, Leonard Lardaro Oct 2010

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — October 2010, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Estimating The Garch Diffusion: Simulated Maximum Likelihood In Continuous Time, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug Oct 2010

Estimating The Garch Diffusion: Simulated Maximum Likelihood In Continuous Time, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new algorithm is developed to provide a simulated maximum likelihood estimation of the GARCH diffusion model of Nelson (1990) based on return data only. The method combines two accurate approximation procedures, namely, the polynomial expansion of Ait-Sahalia (2008) to approximate the transition probability density of return and volatility, and the Efficient Importance Sampler (EIS) of Richard and Zhang (2007) to integrate out the volatility. The first and second order terms in the polynomial expansion are used to generate a base-line importance density for an EIS algorithm. The higher order terms are included when evaluating the importance weights. Monte Carlo …

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Bias In Estimating Multivariate And Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Oct 2010

Bias In Estimating Multivariate And Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Multivariate continuous time models are now widely used in economics and finance. Empirical applications typically rely on some process of discretization so that the system may be estimated with discrete data. This paper introduces a framework for discretizing linear multivariate continuous time systems that includes the commonly used Euler and trapezoidal approximations as special cases and leads to a general class of estimators for the mean reversion matrix. Asymptotic distributions and bias formulae are obtained for estimates of the mean reversion parameter. Explicit expressions are given for the discretization bias and its relationship to estimation bias in both multivariate and …

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Measurement And High Finance, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels Oct 2010

Measurement And High Finance, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels

Research Collection School Of Economics

Turbulence in the world of banking and finance over the last two years has riveted media attention on the financial industry, exposing practices, products and risks in the industry to widespread public scrutiny. Questions continue to be asked about the management and regulation of an industry whose performance is now seen to affect the world’s financial health and its prospects as much as it does national savings and individual retirement funds.

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Simulation-Based Estimation Methods For Financial Time Series Models, Jun Yu Oct 2010

Simulation-Based Estimation Methods For Financial Time Series Models, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper overviews some recent advances on simulatio n-based methods of estimating time series models and asset pricing models that are widely used in finance. The simulation based methods have proven to be particularly useful when the likelihood function and moments do not have tractable forms and hence the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the generalized method of moments (GMM) are difficult to use. They can also be useful for improving the finite sample performance of the traditional methods when financial time series are highly persistent and when the quantity of interest is a highly nonlinear function of system parameters.The …

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Bias-Corrected Estimation For Spatial Autocorrelation, Zhenlin Yang Oct 2010

Bias-Corrected Estimation For Spatial Autocorrelation, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The biasedness issue arising from the maximum likelihood estimation of the spatial autoregressive model (SAR) is further investigated under a broader set-up than that in Bao and Ullah (2007a). A major difficulty in analytically evaluating the expectations of ratios of quadratic forms is overcome by a simple bootstrap procedure. With that, the corrections on bias and variance of the spatial estimator can easily be made up to third-order, and once this is done, the estimators of other model parameters become nearly unbiased. Compared with the analytical approach, the new approach is much simpler, and can easily be extended to other …

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Standardized Lm Tests For Spatial Error Dependence In Linear Or Panel Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Zhenlin Yang Oct 2010

Standardized Lm Tests For Spatial Error Dependence In Linear Or Panel Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The robustness of the LM tests for spatial error dependence of Burridge (1980) for the linear regression model and Anselin (1988) for the panel regression model are examined. While both tests are asymptotic ally robust against distributional misspecification, their finite sample behavior can be sensitive to the spatial layout. To overcome this shortcoming, standardized LM tests are suggested. Monte Carlo results show that the new tests possess good finite sample properties. An important observation made throughout this study is that the LM tests for spatial dependence need to be both mean- and variance-adjusted for good finite sample performance to be …

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Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu Oct 2010

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Hypothesis testing using Bayes factors (BFs) is known to suffer from several problems in the context of latent variable models. The first problem is computational. Another problem is that BFs are not well defined under the improper prior. In this paper, a new Bayesian method, based on decision theory and the EM algorithm, is introduced to test a point hypothesis in latent variable models. The new statistic is a by-product of the Bayesian MCMC output and, hence, easy to compute. It is shown that the new statistic is appropriately defined under improper priors because the method employs a continuous loss …

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