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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Proposition 47 And Crime: A Difference In Differences Analysis Of Incarceration Rates And Crime Using Border Counties, Brian J. Fischer May 2018

Proposition 47 And Crime: A Difference In Differences Analysis Of Incarceration Rates And Crime Using Border Counties, Brian J. Fischer

Theses and Dissertations

California passed Proposition 47 by vote and changed the way the state punishes drug and theft. I find an increase in crime using a difference in differences model by computing the change in thefts with the change in inmates. This effect sides with anecdotal claims and disagrees with empirical studies.

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Examining The Impact Of Education On Diabetes Rates, Mackenzie Bogiages May 2018

Examining The Impact Of Education On Diabetes Rates, Mackenzie Bogiages

Undergraduate Economic Review

Diabetes rates are a problem of growing concern in the U.S. Over 30 million people in the U.S. have been diagnosed with diabetes, and over 90 percent of that group has the largely preventable type 2 diabetes. In order to thwart the disease that costs the U.S. $245 billion a year, the populations most susceptible to diabetes need to be identified and educated. Using data from MEPS, education and several other factors have been identified and their relationships with diabetes have been analyzed to target at risk populations and outline tactics to educate those in dire need of preventative care.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2018, Leonard Lardaro May 2018

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2018, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Impact Of Online Shopping On Shopping Malls, Xaioxing Yan May 2018

Impact Of Online Shopping On Shopping Malls, Xaioxing Yan

Applied Economics Theses

The growth of e-retail has been a major discussion in the shopping characteristics of contemporary society. This has been a major concern as people strive to relate the exponential growth of online shopping to the recent decline in the growth of shopping malls. Various studies have significantly investigated the growth of online shopping and have always mentioned the impact of online shopping on shopping malls to be a negative one. This study focuses on testing that hypothesis. By exploring the possible relationship between certain factors such as the number of shopping malls and the percentage increase in online shopping retail, …

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Does Debt Matter?, Luhan Li May 2018

Does Debt Matter?, Luhan Li

Applied Economics Theses

National debt is a popular topic, since people have a lot of different views on national debt. For example, many people think that there is a positive relationship between national debt and GDP per capita. In other words, the national debt has also increased with the growth of GDP per capita. However, some people feel that there is an inverse relationship between them, so much so that the topic has been discussed. Based on my interest in this topic, I decided to discuss this question. This paper will discuss their influence and importance by analyzing national debt, GDP per capita, …

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The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Price Of Gold, Yunhao Sun May 2018

The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Price Of Gold, Yunhao Sun

Applied Economics Theses

My thesis is that macro factors have been important to the change of the gold price, but have had a differential impact in three factors: Gross Global Product (GGP), real interest rate, and U.S. dollar index (USDI). I estimated the 1st difference of the gold model to determine the impact of macro factors on the price of gold per quarter. The model was estimated using the OLS approach the sample size was 148. I make use of data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic data. The result was that 1st difference model had statistically insignificant coefficients. …

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Literacy Rates Analysis: An International Comparison, Macarena Arce May 2018

Literacy Rates Analysis: An International Comparison, Macarena Arce

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper attempts to provide a more complete reckoning of the economics of literacy rates around the world. It consists on a literature review about the economic benefits and costs of literacy rates and then it shows two econometrics models that attempt to predict literacy rates based on GDP, government expenditure, and several other independent variables.

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Political Accountability And Determinants Of Governance Under Principal-Agent Theory, Matthew Bluem May 2018

Political Accountability And Determinants Of Governance Under Principal-Agent Theory, Matthew Bluem

Dissertations

This study examines the theory that quality of governance is largely dependent upon political accountability, and that the effect of political accountability on governance varies based on three main determinants: level of democracy, level of information available to the public, and diversification of the economy (Adserà et al. 2003). With quality of governance, represented by the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI), as the dependent variable, this study considers how these three independent variables, and several control variables, affect governance quality. Incorporating data from 2010 – 2015 for 143 countries in both cross-sectional OLS and fixed effects panel regression analysis, …

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Race And Gun Violence In The United States: A Case Study Of Policy Reform In Missouri, Morgan C. Williams Jr May 2018

Race And Gun Violence In The United States: A Case Study Of Policy Reform In Missouri, Morgan C. Williams Jr

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Gun violence remains an important contributor to racial differences in mortality within the United States. Despite the existence of these significant racial disparities in firearm homicide victimization, the relationship between gun control policy and racial disparities in homicide remains largely unexplored within the empirical crime literature. Previous research suggests that access to secondary firearm markets serves as a salient contributor to local gun violence with the regulation of private firearm sales falling exclusively within state-level jurisdiction. The role of state-level background check requirements for private firearm sales in reducing gun violence remains controversial in both the empirical literature and gun …

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A Dynamic Network Perspective On The Latent Group Structure Of Cryptocurrencies, Li Guo, Yubo Tao, Wolfgang Karl Hardle May 2018

A Dynamic Network Perspective On The Latent Group Structure Of Cryptocurrencies, Li Guo, Yubo Tao, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study the latent group structure in cryptocurrencies market by forming a dynamic return inferred network with coin attributions. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method to detect the communities in dynamic network framework and prove its uniform consistency along the horizons. Applying our new method, we show the return inferred network structure and coin attributions, including algorithms and proof types, jointly determine the market segmentation. Based on the network model, we propose a novel "hard-to-value" measure using the centrality scores. Further analysis reveals that the group with a lower centrality score exhibits stronger short-term return …

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Aiding To Repair: An Analysis On The Impact Of Foreign Aid In Rwanda After The 1994 Genocide, Mary Atta-Dakwa Apr 2018

Aiding To Repair: An Analysis On The Impact Of Foreign Aid In Rwanda After The 1994 Genocide, Mary Atta-Dakwa

International Relations Honors Papers

Between April 1994 to July 1994, about 1 million Hutus and Tutsis were murdered in the Rwandan genocide. The genocide not only severely declined the population of Rwandans, but largely impacted its infrastructure, government, and economy. After the genocide, about $15 billion US dollars was sent to provide humanitarian aid. Post-genocide Rwanda has seen a significant growth in its economy; however, speculators may question if the economic growth is attributed to the foreign aid it received after the 1994 genocide. This paper seeks to examine the impact of foreign aid on post-war reconstruction on Rwanda as a case study.

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Impulsive Behavior In Competition: Testing Theories Of Overbidding In Rent-Seeking Contests, Roman M. Sheremeta Apr 2018

Impulsive Behavior In Competition: Testing Theories Of Overbidding In Rent-Seeking Contests, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

Contests are commonly used in the workplace to motivate workers, determine promotion, and assign bonuses. Although contests can be very effective at eliciting high effort, they can also lead to inefficient effort expenditure (overbidding). Researchers have proposed various theories to explain overbidding in contents, including mistakes, systematic biases, the utility of winning, and relative payoff maximization. Using an eight-part experiment, we test and find significant support for the existing theories. Also, we discover some new explanations based on cognitive ability and impulsive behavior. Out of all explanations examined, we find that impulsivity is the most important factor explaining overbidding in …

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New York Camp Econometrics Xiii Program, Center For Policy Research Apr 2018

New York Camp Econometrics Xiii Program, Center For Policy Research

Camp Econometrics-Programs

No abstract provided.

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Essays On Estimation For Nonlinear Spatial Models, Xiaoyu Zhou Apr 2018

Essays On Estimation For Nonlinear Spatial Models, Xiaoyu Zhou

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three essays that contribute to the literature on the estimation of nonlinear spatial panel models. Chapter 2 investigates the performance of both the spatial autocorrelation probit model (SAR) and the spatial error correlation probit model (SEM) with the consideration of temporal effects under the panel data framework. The recursive importance sampling (RIS) method is adopted to compute the integral of the multivariate normal distributed error terms. Chapter 3 estimates a panel probit model with individual fixed effects. A spatial error process and conditional heteroskedasticity in an exponential form is considered. We derive the analytical solution for …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2018, Leonard Lardaro Apr 2018

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- April 2018, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Accuracy Using High Frequency Data, Jia Li, Andrew J. Patton Apr 2018

Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Accuracy Using High Frequency Data, Jia Li, Andrew J. Patton

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a general framework that enables many existing inference methods for predictive accuracy to be used in applications that involve forecasts of latent target variables. Such applications include the forecasting of volatility, correlation, beta, quadratic variation, jump variation, and other functionals of an underlying continuous-time process. We provide primitive conditions under which a “negligibility” result holds, and thus the asymptotic size of standard predictive accuracy tests, implemented using a high-frequency proxy for the latent variable, is controlled. An extensive simulation study verifies that the asymptotic results apply in a range of empirically relevant applications, and an empirical application …

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Determination Of Different Types Of Fixed Effects In Three-Dimensional Panels, Xun Lu, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su Apr 2018

Determination Of Different Types Of Fixed Effects In Three-Dimensional Panels, Xun Lu, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a jackknife method to determine the type of fixed effects in three-dimensional panel data models. We show that with probability approaching 1, the method can select the correct type of fixed effects in the presence of only weak serial or cross-sectional dependence among the error terms. In the presence of strong serial correlation, we propose a modified jackknife method and justify its selection consistency. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the excellent finite sample performance of our method. Applications to two datasets in macroeconomics and international trade reveal the usefulness of our method.

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Left-Wing And Right-Wing Terrorism In The United States, Alex Rant, Paul Jones, Nathanael Robinson Mar 2018

Left-Wing And Right-Wing Terrorism In The United States, Alex Rant, Paul Jones, Nathanael Robinson

Seaver College Research And Scholarly Achievement Symposium

This paper assesses whether there is causality between Left-Wing and Right-Wing Terrorist attacks in the United States. A Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) Model is estimated for the two variables. A Granger Causality test and Impulse Response Functions are examined to understand the relationship between the two variables. Both terrorist attacks appear to Granger Cause each other, but an analysis of the Impulse Response Functions reveals that Right-Wing Terrorism yields a stronger response from Left-Wing groups than Left-Wing terrorism does from Right-Wing groups. Nonetheless, there are strong elements of causality and response between the two groups.

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Air Force Officer Attrition: An Ecconometric Analysis, Jacob T. Elliot Mar 2018

Air Force Officer Attrition: An Ecconometric Analysis, Jacob T. Elliot

Theses and Dissertations

Many organizations are concerned, and struggle, with personnel management. Training personnel is expensive, so there is a high emphasis on understanding why and anticipating when individuals leave an organization. The military is no exception. Moreover, the military is strictly hierarchical and must grow all its leaders, making retention all the more vital. Intuition holds that there is a relationship between the economic environment and personnel attrition rates in the military (e.g. when the economy is bad, attrition is low). This study investigates that relationship in a more formal manner. Specifically, this study conducts an econometric analysis of U.S. Air Force …

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Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy De Silva Mar 2018

Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy De Silva

Undergraduate Economic Review

Over the past couple of decades, the number of volatility indices has increased rapidly. Although the dynamics of realized volatility spillover have been studied extensively, very few studies exist that examine the spillover between these implied volatility indices. By using DAG-based structural vector autoregression, this paper provides evidence that implied volatility spillover differs from realized volatility spillover. Through solving the well-known VAR identification problem for these indices, this paper finds that Asia, more specifically Hong Kong, plays a central role in implied volatility spillover during and after the 2008 financial crisis.

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Your Money Or Your Time? Experimental Evidence On Overbidding In All-Pay Auctions, Adriana Breaban, Charles N. Noussair, Andreea Victoria Popescu Mar 2018

Your Money Or Your Time? Experimental Evidence On Overbidding In All-Pay Auctions, Adriana Breaban, Charles N. Noussair, Andreea Victoria Popescu

ESI Working Papers

Competition for a prize frequently takes the form of dedicating time toward winning a contest. Those who spend the most time become more likely to obtain the prize. We model this competition as an all-pay auction under incomplete information, and report an experiment in which expenditures and rewards are in terms of time. In the experiment, subjects must stay in the laboratory doing nothing for an initially prespecified length of time. However, they can bid, in terms of time, to leave early. The auction has an allpay structure so that if an individual does not submit the highest bid within …

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Entrepreneurship Education Empowers Youth To Change Their Lives, Marianna Brashear, Jason Riddle Mar 2018

Entrepreneurship Education Empowers Youth To Change Their Lives, Marianna Brashear, Jason Riddle

National Youth Advocacy & Resilience Conference

The Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) aims at equipping Title 1 schools with free, hands-on, engaging materials that any teacher can facilitate either individually or in a classroom setting with no background in entrepreneurship necessary. These versatile lessons, courses, and workshops teach the entrepreneurial mindset optimizing opportunities for grades 8-12 students no matter which life/career path they choose.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2018, Leonard Lardaro Mar 2018

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- March 2018, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Extremal Quantile Regressions For Selection Models And The Black-White Wage Gap, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Arnaud Maurel, Yichong Zhang Mar 2018

Extremal Quantile Regressions For Selection Models And The Black-White Wage Gap, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Arnaud Maurel, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation of a semiparametric sample selection model without instrument or large support regressor. Identification relies on the independence between the covariates and selection, for arbitrarily large values of the outcome. We propose a simple estimator based on extremal quantile regression and establish its asymptotic normality by extending previous results on extremal quantile regressions to allow for selection. Finally, we apply our method to estimate the black-white wage gap among males from the NLSY79 and NLSY97. We find that premarket factors such as AFQT and family background play a key role in explaining the black-white wage gap.

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Experimental Evidence On The Cyclicality Of Investment, Cortney S. Rodet, Andrew Smyth Feb 2018

Experimental Evidence On The Cyclicality Of Investment, Cortney S. Rodet, Andrew Smyth

ESI Working Papers

We report laboratory experiments investigating the cyclicality of investment. In our setting, optimal investment is counter-cyclical because investment costs fall following market downturns. However, we do not observe counter-cyclical investment. Instead, heuristic investment models where firms invest a fixed percentage of their liquidity, or a fixed percentage of anticipated market demand, better fit our data on average than does optimal investment. We also report a control treatment without cost changes and a treatment with asymmetric investment liquidity. Both of these extensions support our main result.

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Indefinitely Repeated Contests: An Experimental Study, Philip Brookins, Dmitry Ryvkin, Andrew Smyth Feb 2018

Indefinitely Repeated Contests: An Experimental Study, Philip Brookins, Dmitry Ryvkin, Andrew Smyth

ESI Working Papers

We experimentally explore indefinitely repeated contests. Theory predicts more cooperation, in the form of lower expenditures, in indefinitely repeated contests with a longer expected time horizon, yet our data do not support this prediction. Theory also predicts more cooperation in indefinitely repeated contests compared to finitely repeated contests of the same expected length, but we find no significant difference empirically. When controlling for risk and gender, we actually find significantly higher long-run expenditure in some indefinite contests relative to finite contests. Finally, theory predicts no difference in cooperation across indefinitely repeated winner-take-all and proportional-prize contests. We find significantly less cooperation …

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Is There Really A Foreign Language Premium In Canada?: Evaluating The Foreign Language Effect On Canadian Wages, Peter C. Ki Feb 2018

Is There Really A Foreign Language Premium In Canada?: Evaluating The Foreign Language Effect On Canadian Wages, Peter C. Ki

Undergraduate Economic Review

Given the debates on whether knowing a foreign language has a positive or negative effect on wages, there is little or no research conducted on how it fares in Canada, despite extensive studies on French and English. Using the Public Use Microdata Files of the 2011 National Household Survey by Statistics Canada, I find a 2.84% wage penalty for Canadians who know a foreign language and an even greater penalty for Canadians who use these languages at work. I proceed to decompose the results by language and occupation to find varying results. I also attempt to use a religion proxy …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2018, Leonard Lardaro Feb 2018

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2018, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Integrated Deviance Information Criterion For Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng Feb 2018

Integrated Deviance Information Criterion For Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison, especially after Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate candidate models. This paper studies the problem of using DIC to compare latent variable models after the models are estimated by MCMC together with the data augmentation technique. Our contributions are twofold. First, we show that when MCMC is used with data augmentation, it undermines theoretical underpinnings of DIC. As a result, by treating latent variables as parameters, the widely used way of constructing DIC based on the conditional likelihood, although facilitating computation, should not be used. …

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Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita Feb 2018

Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation develops three new econometric models using Bayesian state space representation model in order to apply to macroeconomics and international finance. It consists of 3 chapters. Chapter 1 develops a Markov mixture model of macroeconomic fundamentals to analyze the short-run dynamics of foreign exchange rates. In our model, foreign exchange rates are simultaneously determined by three parities: the interest rate parity, the inflation rate parity, and the equity return rate parity. Using four exchange rates: the U.S. dollar price of the British pound, the German mark, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar, the findings are: (1) Our model …

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