Econometrics Commons^™

Resilience And The U.S. Labor Market: A Cross-Scale Analysis On The Role Of Industrial Diversity And Specialization, Christian D. Sprague

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines how the effects of industrial diversity and specialization vary across geographical scales and classification levels. The notion of a robust institutional design, in conjunction with a regional resilience framework, is used to model how diversity and modularity affect unemployment through-out economic cycles. We use fixed effects models on employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau in all available U.S. counties from 1998-2015. Key results suggest the optimal structure of industrial composition varies across scale, namely, that fine levels of industrial diversity are beneficial at higher levels of geographical scale (regions), whereas a broad …

Nonstationary Panels With Unobserved Heterogeneity, Wenxin Huang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation develops several econometric techniques to address the unobserved heterogeneity in nonstationary panels, namely identifying latent group structures in cointegrated panels, studying nonstationary panels with both cross-sectional dependence and latent group structures, and estimating panel error-correction model with unobserved dynamic common factors.

Chapter 1 considers a panel cointegration model with latent group structures that allows for heterogeneous long-run relations across groups. We extend Su et al. (2013) classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) method to the nonstationary panels and allow for the presence of endogeneity in both the stationary and nonstationary regressors in the model. In addition, we allow the dimension of the …

Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models With Correlated Random Effects, Liyao Li, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, M-estimation and inference methods are developed for spatial dynamic panel data models with correlated random effects, based on short panels. The unobserved individual-specific effects are assumed to be correlated with the observed time-varying regressors linearly or in a linearizable way, giving the so-called correlated random effects model, which allows the estimation of effects of time-invariant regressors. The unbiased estimating functions are obtained by adjusting the conditional quasi-scores given the initial observations, leading to M-estimators that are consistent, asymptotically normal, and free from the initial conditions except the process starting time. By decomposing the estimating functions into sums …

Unified M-Estimation Of Fixed-Effects Spatial Dynamic Models With Short Panels, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is well known that quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of dynamic panel data (DPD) models with short panels depends on the assumptions on the initial values, and a wrong treatment of them will result in inconsistency and serious bias. The same issues apply to spatial DPD (SDPD) models with short panels. In this paper, a unified Mestimation method is proposed for estimating the fixed-effects SDPD models containing three major types of spatial effects, namely spatial lag, spatial error and space-time lag. The method is free from the specification of the distribution of the initial observations and robust against nonnormality …

Bootstrap Lm Tests For Higher-Order Spatial Effects In Spatial Linear Regression Models, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper first extends the methodology of Yang (J Econom 185:33-59, 2015) to allow for non-normality and/or unknown heteroskedasticity in obtaining asymptotically refined critical values for the LM-type tests through bootstrap. Bootstrap refinements in critical values require the LM test statistics to be asymptotically pivotal under the null hypothesis, and for this we provide a set of general methods for constructing LM and robust LM tests. We then give detailed treatments for two general higher-order spatial linear regression models: namely the model and the model, by providing a complete set of non-normality robust LM and bootstrap LM tests for higher-order …

Financial Bubble Implosion And Reverse Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Expansion and collapse are two key features of a financial asset bubble. Bubble expansionmay be modeled using a mildly explosive process. Bubble implosion may take several differentforms depending on the nature of the collapse and therefore requires some flexibility in modeling.This paper first strengthens the theoretical foundation of the real time bubble monitoringstrategy proposed in Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b, PSY) by developing analytics and studyingthe performance characteristics of the testing algorithm under alternative forms of bubbleimplosion which capture various return paths to market normalcy. Second, we propose a newreverse sample use of the PSY procedure for detecting crises and …

Pretrial Release And Failure-To-Appear In Mclean County, Il, Jonathan Monsma

Student Research – Stevenson Center

Actuarial risk assessment tools increasingly have been employed in jurisdictions across the U.S. to assist courts in the decision of whether someone charged with a crime should be detained or released prior to their trial. These tools should be continually monitored and researched by independent 3^rd parties to ensure that these powerful tools are being administered properly and used in the most proficient way as to provide socially optimal results. McLean County, Illinois began using the Public Safety Assessment-Court^TM (PSA-Court or simply PSA) risk assessment tool beginning in 2016. This study culls data from the McLean County Jail …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2018, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Boundary Limit Theory For Functional Local To Unity Regression, Anna Bykhovskaya, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article studies functional local unit root models (FLURs) in which the autoregressive coefficient may vary with time in the vicinity of unity. We extend conventional local to unity (LUR) models by allowing the localizing coefficient to be a function which characterizes departures from unity that may occur within the sample in both stationary and explosive directions. Such models enhance the flexibility of the LUR framework by including break point, trending, and multidirectional departures from unit autoregressive coefficients. We study the behavior of this model as the localizing function diverges, thereby determining the impact on the time series and on …

Asymptotics And Bootstrap For Random-Effects Panel Data Transformation Models, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article investigates the asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimators for random-effects panel data transformation models where both the response and (some of) the covariates are subject to transformations for inducing normality, flexible functional form, homoskedasticity, and simple model structure. We develop a QML-type procedure for model estimation and inference. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the QML estimators, and propose a simple bootstrap procedure that leads to a robust estimate of the variance-covariance (VC) matrix. Monte Carlo results reveal that the QML estimators perform well in finite samples, and that the gains by using the robust …

Diagnostic Tests For Homoskedasticity In Spatial Cross-Sectional Or Panel Models, Badi H. Baltagi, Alain Pirotte, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose tests for homoskedasticity in spatial econometric models, based on joint or concentrated score functions and an Outer-Product-of-Martingale-Difference (OPMD) estimate of the variance of the joint or concentrated score functions. Versions of these tests robust against non-normality are also given. Asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are formally examined using a cross-section model and a panel model with fixed effects. Monte Carlo results show that the proposed tests based on the concentrated score function have good finite sample properties. Finally, the generality of the proposed approach in constructing tests for homoskedasticity is further demonstrated using a spatial dynamic panel …

New Distribution Theory For The Estimation Of Structural Break Point In Mean, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Based on the Girsanov theorem, this paper obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break point in a continuous time model. The exact distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal, indicating that the estimator is biased. These two properties are also found in the finite sample distribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of structural break point in the discrete time model, suggesting the classical long-span asymptotic theory is inadequate. The paper then builds a continuous time approximation to the discrete time model and develops an in-fill asymptotic theory for the LS estimator. The in-fill asymptotic distribution is …

Equilibrium Wage Rigidity In Directed Search, Gabriele Camera, Jaehong Kim

ESI Working Papers

Matching frictions and downward wage rigidity emerge as equilibrium phenomena in a twosided labor market where firms sustain variable wage adjustment costs. Firms post wages to attract workers and matches are endogenous. Reducing the wage relative to the wage previously posted is costly to the firm, where the cost is proportional to the size of the proposed cut. Shocks to the firm’s profitability may yield an equilibrium wage above what the firm would offer absent proportional adjustment costs. Wage cuts can be partial or full, immediate or delayed, and are non-linear in the shock size. Importantly, wages are sticky even …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2018, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

The Heterogeneous Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Employment Across States, Wuyi Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the relationship between the minimum wage and the employment rate in the US using the framework of a panel structure model. The approach allows the minimum wage, along with some other controls, to have heterogeneous effects on employment across states which are classified into a group structure. The effects on employment are the same within each group but differ across different groups. The number of groups and the group membership of each state are both unknown a priori. The approach employs the C-Lasso technique, a recently developed classification method that consistently estimates group structure and leads to …

Dispersion And Uncertainty In Density Forecasts: Evidence From Surveys Of Professional Forecasters, You Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies patterns of dispersion in density forecasts as reported in surveys of professional forecasters. We pay special attention to the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We also consider the relationship between survey design and forecaster behavior. The last chapter describes future research exploring the characteristics of forecaster expectations using probability integral transforms.

As a starting point, chapter one gives a summary of the literature that tries to answer, using data from survey of forecasters, the following three key questions: Why do forecasters disagree? What do density …

Three Essays On Panel Structure Models, Wuyi Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In panel structure models, individuals can be classified into different groups with the slope parameters being homogeneous within the same group but heterogeneous across groups, both the number of groups and each individual’s group membership are unknown. This dissertation proposes some methods to identify the panel structure models under different specifications, namely, developing a Lasso-type Panel-CARDS method in the linear panel, constructing two sequential binary segmentation algorithms in the nonlinear panel, and using K-means algorithm in the spatial panel.

Chapter 2 studies the estimation of a linear panel data model with latent structures. To identify the unknown group structure of …

The Political Framing Of Public Policies: An Analysis Of Act 10 In Wisconsin, David Brooker

Lawrence University Honors Projects

Political framing of public policy is typically different than the actual effects of the policy. In the case of Act 10 there was an extremely negative perception from teachers in the state of Wisconsin especially when it came to their salaries despite little empirical difference in salaries. Wisconsin’s Act 10, which altered the state’s public-sector collective bargaining laws, provides a natural experiment to test the political framing of public policy. A survey was conducted of teachers across the state of Wisconsin to determine their opinions regarding Act 10 and salary data from Wisconsin and Missouri were collected for comparison. It …

The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, Jonathan Liu

Undergraduate Economic Review

The aim of this study is to examine the economic impacts of a U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Canada, Mexico and the United States. The shocks simulate scenarios in which the U.S instates penalizing tariff rates on NAFTA countries, a trade war between NAFTA members and a tariff reset to the WTO MFN rates. The effects of these tariff structures are analyzed under the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on macroeconomic variables and welfare. The findings show that, in all iterations, Mexico’s economy takes a substantial hit, America’s …

Essays In Development Economics, Manini Ojha

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three empirical essays in development economics. In the first essay, I examine the impact of a health insurance scheme called the Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY), launched in 2008 in India, on schooling decisions and gender differences in education. At the outset, it is not entirely obvious as to whether health insurance would benefit education or have a detrimental impact. Healthier children could either mean greater future economic returns from schooling or greater value as child labour. More specifically, the questions I seek to answer are twofold: (1) Does access to a health insurance scheme designed …

Empirical Essays In Household Economics, Hao Li

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation is consist of three empirical studies in economics. The first part empirically examines the effect of universal pre-k on labor force participation of fertility age women in Oklahoma. I investigate the policy effect from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. I apply the synthetic control method (SCM) to the Current Population Survey (CPS) data to identify the causal relationship between universal pre-k and female labor outcomes. I find that universal pre-k increases labor supply of women aged 25 to 45 in Oklahoma. The second empirical study focuses on how the birth outcomes of US children respond to exposure to …

Empirical Essays On Corruption, Sanchari Choudhury

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on explaining causal relationships between corruption and various economic and political policies and institutions like governmental decentralization in countries, membership to an international organization like the World Trade Organization (WTO), and federal regulatory constraints of industries in the United States. While identifying causality in issues concerning corruption and these above-mentioned factors is crucial, attaining it credibly is not straightforward. Measurement error and/or unobserved heterogeneity make a causal analysis challenging. This dissertation, therefore, attempts to apply state-of-the-art econometric techniques to circumvent the empirical issues underlying such studies and identify the causal link. Alongside the applications, this work strives …

Patriarchal Norms, Bargaining, And Gendered Attitudes On Intimate Partner Violence, Anna Eckenrode

Master's Theses

How do the underlying mechanisms of social norms and bargaining power relate to the acceptance of intimate partner violence within households? How do short run and long run determinants of gender norms affect attitudes toward IPV? This study begins to decompose the dynamics of the acceptance of IPV within couples using data from the Demographic Health Survey, as well as examine the relationship in the context of patriarchal societies using data from the Ethnographic Atlas. I find that females are more accepting than males of intimate partner violence, and females becoming more educated is associated with her being less accepting …

The Causal Impact Of Cleft Lip And Palate Surgery On Psychological Wellbeing, Sam Manning

Master's Theses

Cleft lip and/or cleft palate (CL/P) are birth conditions in which a newborn has an opening in the roof of their mouth or a slit in their upper lip. Left untreated, CL/P can lead to speech impediments and an unsightly orofacial deformity. However, a sequence of simple, common surgical procedures can restore function with minimal scarring. To date, the psychological effects of being born with CL/P have been investigated in the literature, but the restorative impact of CL/P surgery on psychological wellbeing has not been rigorously evaluated. This study uses a quasi-experimental approach to estimate the impact of being born …

Do Climate Shocks Affect Smallholder Farmers’ Conservation Practices? Evidence From Peru, Heleene Tambet

Master's Theses

Peruvian agriculture is estimated to be subject to the greatest impacts of climate change in South America. Resulting shifts in rainfall patterns and extreme temperature realizations impose more frequent abnormal weather shocks on farmers and their production decisions. I study the impact of such shocks on agricultural practice choices of farmers growing two main staples, maize and potato; namely, I analyze adoption of practices reducing soil degradation, practices aimed towards water conservation, and application of inorganic fertilizer. I utilize unique cross-sectional data from Peru National Agricultural Survey over the years 2014 to 2016 in conjunction with long-term climate data, and …

The Impact Of Goal Settings And Self-Help Groups To Support Small Businesses: Experimental Evidence Using Female Entrepreneurs In Abuja Nigeria., Nneoma Nwobilor

Master's Theses

Approximately 57% of women in Nigeria from age 15-64 are involved in some form of employment, but there are still 17 million unemployed women (World Bank, 2016). Most of these women are involved in informal entrepreneurship due to external constraints. According to the World Bank, women who have no access to schooling are forced to find informal work to provide for themselves and their families. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of goal settings and support groups on small businesses among female small-scale business owners in Abuja Nigeria. The research conducted uses the experimental design created by the Family …

Using Monetary Incentives To Support Female Entrepreneurship: An Experimental Test Of Monetary Incentives In Abuja, Nigeria, Imuetinyan Aiguwurhuo

Master's Theses

Gender gaps in entrepreneurship are a major problem everywhere, but especially in developing countries like Nigeria. Women across the world face high levels of discrimination and abuse. The process of empowering women in a society has the potential to boost economic growth and development. Inspired by the success of the Family Independence Initiative (FII), we designed a field experiment to estimate the impact of using monetary incentives to motivate female entrepreneurs in achieving their goals in collaboration with the National Center for Women Development (NCWD) in Abuja, Nigeria. Our results suggest that being in a peer support group, setting a …

Female Risk Aversion: Experimental Evidence From Myanmar, O Mandalay

Master's Theses

Present literature shows that the risk tolerance of females is generally lower than that of males, but in some circumstances, it can exceed – when concerning the welfare of the offspring, for example. Many experiments and data suggest that the dynamics of female risk tolerance depend on context and type of rewards involved as well as cultural norms. In our experiment, holding the culture and the context fixed, we found that females took less risk than males. Our experiment was conducted in Myanmar using a lottery selection method to measure risk over five consecutive rounds. We found 1) female risk …

Transitions From Higher Education To The Labor Market: Merit Aid, Time To Degree Signals, And Major Choice, Christopher P. Erwin

Economics ETDs

Human capital production is central to economic wellbeing from a national perspective: it improves productivity, spurs technological innovation, and promotes sustainable economic growth over time. Equally important, investments in human capital are central to economic wellbeing at the individual level. College graduates tend to earn more money, are more employable, are better able to manage economic downturns, and have even been shown to have better health. Moreover, for many students, the college experience is an important lesson in living independently, developing social and professional networks, and generally taking on more responsibility in one’s life. It has been said that pursuing …

The Impact Of Region Of Origin On Industry Of Choice, Anna Williams

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

America’s population is constantly growing not just in numbers, but in diversity as well. Immigration, while a controversial issue, is a topic that affects every American. While there have been a multitude of studies done about migrants, few have looked at region of origin as a primary factor in economic decisions regarding migration. How much impact does their home country have on their occupational choices? Using microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) from 2001 to 2016, this multinomial logit regression equation calculates the impact of certain regions of origin on choosing jobs in Manufacturing, Construction, Professional Services, and Other …