When Are Analyst Recommendation Changes Influential?,
2011
Singapore Management University
When Are Analyst Recommendation Changes Influential?, Roger Loh, Rene M. Stulz
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The existing literature measures the contribution of analyst recommendation changes using average stock-price reactions. With such an approach, recommendation changes can have a significant impact even if no recommendation has a visible stock-price impact. Instead, we call a recommendation change influential only if it affects the stock price of the affected firm visibly. We show that only 12% of recommendation changes are influential. Recommendation changes are more likely to be influential if they are from leader, star, previously influential analysts, issued away from consensus, accompanied by earnings forecasts, and issued on growth, small, high institutional ownership, or high forecast dispersion …
Out-Of-Sample Industry Return Predictability: Evidence From A Large Number Of Predictors,
2011
Saint Louis University
Out-Of-Sample Industry Return Predictability: Evidence From A Large Number Of Predictors, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We uncover extensive evidence of out-of-sample return predictability for industry portfolios based on a principal component approach that incorporates information from a large number of predictors. Moreover, we find substantial differences in the degree of return predictability across industries. To understand these differences, we propose a decomposition of out-of-sample industry return predictability into beta and alpha shares, where the former corresponds to a conditional beta pricing model. A conditional version of the popular Fama-French three-factor model accounts for nearly all out-of-sample industry return predictability, with exposures to time-varying market and size risk premiums especially important for explaining differences in return …
The Performance Of Venture Capital Funds And Vc-Backed Ipos: An Evidence From China,
2011
Singapore Management University
The Performance Of Venture Capital Funds And Vc-Backed Ipos: An Evidence From China, Weng Hong Lou
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
This study is divided into three parts based on the listed companies on the Small and Medium Enterprise Board on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China. The first part is to study the investment performance of Venture Capital Funds. I found that the investment return in terms of investment multiple and annual rate of return is better than those in the US market, and also the VC investment portfolios outperform the public equity market. Furthermore, I compare the performance of non VC-backed IPOs and non VC-backed IPOs by using the Buy-and Hold Abnormal Return and Wealth Relatives. Both measurements show …
Monthly Seasonality In Emerging Market: Evidence From Bangladesh,
2011
East West University
Monthly Seasonality In Emerging Market: Evidence From Bangladesh, Lutfur Rahman, Abu S. Amin
WCBT Faculty Publications
The presence of the seasonal anomaly in stock returns has been reported extensively in finance literature. This paper examines the presence of monthly anomaly in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the premier stock exchange of Bangladesh. Data used in the study include daily closing prices of DSE indices such as DSE all share prices index (DSI), DSE general index (DGEN) and DSE 20 index for a period of 01.01.2001-30.06.2010. Several hypotheses have been formulated; those hypotheses have been tested and dummy variable regression was used in the study. The result indicates that May and June returns are positive and statistically significant. …
Radicalization And The Use Of Social Media,
2011
Henley-Putnam
Radicalization And The Use Of Social Media, Robin L. Thompson
Journal of Strategic Security
The use of social media tools by individuals and organizations to radicalize individuals for political and social change has become increasingly popular as the Internet penetrates more of the world and mobile computing devices are more accessible. To establish a construct for radicalization,the power and reach of social media will be described so there is common understanding of what social media is and how it is utilized by various individuals and groups. The second section will answer the question of why social media applications are the perfect platform for the radical voice. Finally, the use of social media and its …
Murder And Martial Justice: Spying And Retribution In Wwii America. By Meredith Lentz Adams (Kent, Ohio: The Kent State University Press, 2011),
2011
Colonel (ret.), U.S. Air Force Office of Special Investigations
Murder And Martial Justice: Spying And Retribution In Wwii America. By Meredith Lentz Adams (Kent, Ohio: The Kent State University Press, 2011), Millard E. Moon Ed.D.
Journal of Strategic Security
No abstract provided.
Rethinking Radicalization,
2011
University of South Florida
Rethinking Radicalization, Randy Borum
Journal of Strategic Security
No abstract provided.
Radicalization Into Violent Extremism I: A Review Of Social Science Theories,
2011
University of South Florida
Radicalization Into Violent Extremism I: A Review Of Social Science Theories, Randy Borum
Journal of Strategic Security
In discourse about countering terrorism, the term "radicalization" is widely used, but remains poorly defined. To focus narrowly on ideological radicalization risks implying that radical beliefs are a proxy—or at least a necessary precursor—for terrorism, though we know this not to be true.Different pathways and mechanisms of terrorism involvement operate in different ways for different people at different points in time and perhaps in different contexts. This article explores the problems in defining radicalization and radicalism, and suggests that radicalization—and more specifically, involvement in terrorism—might best be viewed as a set of diverse processes. It goes on to review several …
Radicalization Into Violent Extremism Ii: A Review Of Conceptual Models And Empirical Research,
2011
University of South Florida
Radicalization Into Violent Extremism Ii: A Review Of Conceptual Models And Empirical Research, Randy Borum
Journal of Strategic Security
Over the past decade, analysts have proposed several frameworks to explain the process of radicalization into violent extremism (RVE). These frameworks are based primarily on rational, conceptual models which are neither guided by theory nor derived from systematic research. This article reviews recent (post-9/11) conceptual models of the radicalization process and recent (post-9/11) empirical studies of RVE. It emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between ideological radicalization and terrorism involvement, though both issues deserve further empirical inquiry.Finally, it summarizes some recent RVE-related research efforts, identifies seven things that social science researchers and operational personnel still need to know about violent radicalization, …
Disarming Youth Combatants: Mitigating Youth Radicalization And Violent Extremism,
2011
Coventry University
Disarming Youth Combatants: Mitigating Youth Radicalization And Violent Extremism, Alpaslan Özerdem, Sukanya Podder
Journal of Strategic Security
In the complex of motivating variables that define the push and pull factors behind recruitment and participation in civil conflict, "radicalization"—or "violent extremism"—is not conceived as a very strong motive, as is the case with studies on terrorism. As part of disarming youth combatants,the linkages between reintegration outcomes and possible rerecruitment into radical and extremist violence must be better understood to mitigate such risks. In our analysis, the policies guiding reintegration of child soldiers and youth should be better attuned to the relationship between recruitment motivations and reintegration outcomes, and must be approached from a political lens rather than a …
Radical Islamism And Migrant Integration In Denmark: An Empirical Inquiry,
2011
Metropolitan University College, Copenhagen
Radical Islamism And Migrant Integration In Denmark: An Empirical Inquiry, Marco Goli, Shahamak Rezaei
Journal of Strategic Security
It has been suggested that alienation and failed integration may be causes of "Homegrown Radical Islamism" in Western societies. Western countries often expect that migrants and their descendants residing there as citizens will embrace or support common democratic ideals as a predicate for—or consequence of—their societal integration. Conventional wisdom suggests: "The more you associate yourself with the cherished and established goals and means, the more you will disassociate yourself from Radical Islamism," and vice versa. We believe that, quite surprisingly, an empirical test of this idea is lacking. Based on a nationally representative sample of 1,113 youth (ages 15–30) in …
Radicalism Within The Context Of Social Movements: Processes And Types,
2011
University of California, Irvine
Radicalism Within The Context Of Social Movements: Processes And Types, Remy Cross, David A. Snow
Journal of Strategic Security
Drawing on work within the study of social movements and on conversion processes that is relevant to understanding radicalization, as well as on our own relevant research experiences and findings, especially on radicalism in right-wing and left-wing movements, we focus attention on the elements and dynamics of social movements, both intra-movement and extra-movement, that facilitate the grassroots development and maintenance of radical identities and enhance or diminish the prospect of engagement in radical action. In particular, we note the importance of free spaces to associate apart from the reach of control agents and adversaries,the development of affinity groups and a …
Four Lessons From The Study Of Fundamentalism And Psychology Of Religion,
2011
University of Cambridge
Four Lessons From The Study Of Fundamentalism And Psychology Of Religion, Sara Savage
Journal of Strategic Security
What lessons can the study of fundamentalism and the psychology of religion teach the newer field of Radicalization and Involvement in Violent Extremism (RIVE)? Four lessons and an intervention are offered in this article: (1) Religion is a robust human experience and cultural product that adopts a defensive shape when its worldview is threatened. (2) This does not mean that all "fundamentalisms" or radical versions of religion are somehow linked or perform similar functions; rather, they reflect the limited human repertoire to threat, yet within different cultural and historical contexts. (3) Causal explanations on the level of the individual are …
Gangs, Terrorism, And Radicalization,
2011
Arizona State University
Gangs, Terrorism, And Radicalization, Scott Decker, David Pyrooz
Journal of Strategic Security
What can street gangs tell us about radicalization and extremist groups? At first glance, these two groups seem to push the boundaries of comparison. In this article, we examine the important similarities and differences across criminal, deviant, and extremist groups. Drawing from research on street gangs, this article explores issues such as levels of explanation,organizational structure, group process, and the increasingly important role of technology and the Internet in the context of radicalization. There are points of convergence across these groups, but it is important to understand the differences between these groups. This review finds little evidence to support the …
The Development Of British Defence Policy: Blair, Brown And Beyond. By David Brown, Ed. (Burlington, Vt: Ashgate Publishing Company, 2010),
2011
Henley-Putnam University
The Development Of British Defence Policy: Blair, Brown And Beyond. By David Brown, Ed. (Burlington, Vt: Ashgate Publishing Company, 2010), Edward M. Roche
Journal of Strategic Security
No abstract provided.
Friction: How Radicalization Happens To Them And Us. By Clark Mccauley And Sophia Moskalenko (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011),
2011
NASA Counterintelligence Office
Friction: How Radicalization Happens To Them And Us. By Clark Mccauley And Sophia Moskalenko (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011), Robin L. Thompson
Journal of Strategic Security
No abstract provided.
Cover & Front Matter,
2011
University of South Florida
Congressional Insider Trading: An Analysis Of The Personal Common Stock Transactions Of U.S. Senators,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
Congressional Insider Trading: An Analysis Of The Personal Common Stock Transactions Of U.S. Senators, Scott T. Yingling
CMC Senior Theses
I have examined the common stock investments made by members of the U.S. Senate between 2006 and 2009. I find that the average stock portfolio in the Senate exhibits one and two year cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of -0.15 % and 0.43%, respectively. This suggests that members of the Senate are not trading on insider knowledge as indicated by one previous researcher who calculated a one year CAR of 25%. However, my findings are in line with another previous researcher who found a one year CAR of about -2% and concluded that Congressmen are not trading on inside information. I …
Markowitz Meets Talmud: A Combination Of Sophisticated And Naive Diversification Strategies,
2011
Singapore Management University
Markowitz Meets Talmud: A Combination Of Sophisticated And Naive Diversification Strategies, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The modern portfolio theory pioneered by Markowitz (1952) is widely used in practice and extensively taught to MBAs. However, the estimated Markowitz portfolio rule and most of its extensions not only underperform the naive 1/N rule (that invests equally across N assets) in simulations, but also lose money on a risk-adjusted basis in many real data sets. In this paper, we propose an optimal combination of the naive 1/N rule with one of the four sophisticated strategies—the Markowitz rule, the Jorion (1986) rule, the MacKinlay and Pástor (2000) rule, and the Kan and Zhou (2007) rule—as a way to improve …
Would Price Limits Have Made Any Difference To The 'Flash Crash' On May 6, 2010,
2011
Singapore Management University
Would Price Limits Have Made Any Difference To The 'Flash Crash' On May 6, 2010, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh
Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems
On May 6, 2010, the U.S. equity markets experienced a brief but highly unusual drop in prices across a number of stocks and indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (see Figure 1) fell by approximately 9% in a matter of minutes, and several stocks were traded down sharply before recovering a short time later. The authors contend that the events of May 6, 2010 exhibit patterns consistent with the type of "flash crash" observed in their earlier study (2010). This paper describes the results of nine different simulations created by using a large-scale computer model to reconstruct the critical elements …
