Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons^™

Behavioral Finance And Its Impact On Investing, Jordan Fieger

Senior Honors Theses

The field of behavioral finance has seen incredible growth over the past half century as it has explored the effect that cognitive psychological biases can have on investors’ financial decisions. Behavioral finance stands in stark contrast to the efficient market hypothesis, as it attributes market inefficiencies to investors who are not perfectly rational human beings. It offers a solution to the observed 3.5% gap that active equity investors miss out on in the market compared to passive index funds, which it attributes to their emotions and psychological biases. These common human biases can be grouped into five major categories: heuristics, …

Performance Control And Risk Calibration In The Black-Litterman Model, Chyng Wen Tee, Shirley Huang, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School of Business

The authors show that risk aversion and prior estimation error input parameters of the Black-Litterman model that are arbitrarily fixed in existing practices should instead be carefully calibrated because they are related to the Sharpe performance ratio and Value at Risk or tail risk of the active portfolio. A related important insight is that these parameters are not entirely exogenous but are connected closely to the portfolio manager's inputs of subjective expected returns, as well as the degree of confidence over these subjective beliefs. The value of τ is closer to zero if the manager believes the initial estimates based …

Sustainable Portfolios To Maximize Alpha, Douglas Stephen Carey

Honors Theses

There has been a new movement for investment funds to align with investor morals. They are known as Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) funds, and have become a strong focus for asset management firms. Currently these funds have a negative stigma because most investors believe that due to added constraints on these portfolios, they will not be able to outperform non-sustainable portfolios. This is why the sustainable investment portfolios will be created. The portfolios undergo two focuses. The first portfolio employs a negative screening, which means that the portfolio will exclude specific industries that are deemed unsustainable. The other portfolio …

The Subprime Mortgage Collapse And Its Effects On The Economy, Joseph Krmpotich

Senior Honors Theses

The subprime mortgage crisis occurred due to a number of factors. Included in these factors were the issuance of subprime loans, the securitization of mortgages in the investment banking system, and the deregulation and ultimate failure of the shadow banking system. These causes were evident in both historical trends in the stock market as well as the macroeconomic data leading into the crash. They were perpetuated by investors, mortgage brokers, and banks taking on an abnormal amount of risk in the early 2000s for both psychological and behavioral reasons. These causes, while less than obvious at the time, have, with …

Counterfeiting The Naira Notes: Issues, Trends And Measurements., Kingsley Imandojemu

Bullion

Currency counterfeiting is o worldwide phenomenon of great importance to currency management and monetary policy execution. This has resulted in transatlantic corporation and synergy in combating the malaise in addition to the efforts of the monetary authorities towards ensuring that banknotes are not susceptible to counterfeiting. Notwithstanding the zero currency counterfeit stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the menace remain unabated. The paper through the lens of available literature, identified issues and trends that undermine the effort of the Central Bank of Nigeria geared towards ensuring that banknotes are not susceptible to counterfeiting and also developed methodological framework for …

Sensation-Seeking Hedge Funds, Stephen Brown, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a novel dataset of hedge fund manager automobile purchases, we show that, motivated by sensation seeking, hedge fund managers often take risk for personal and non-pecuniary reasons. In line with the sensation seeking view, managers who own powerful sports cars take on more investment risk but do not deliver higher returns, resulting in lower Sharpe ratios. Moreover, funds managed by performance car owners exhibit higher operational risk and are more likely to fail. Performance car owners demonstrate other attributes associated with sensation seeking, such as a preference for lottery-like stocks, unconventional strategies, and active trading.

International Volatility Risk And Chinese Stock Return Predictability, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Yangshu Liu, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the predictive ability of international volatility risks for the daily Chinese stock market returns. We employ the innovations in implied volatility indexes of seven major international markets as our international volatility risk proxies. We find that international volatility risks are negatively associated with contemporaneous Chinese daily overnight stock returns, while positively forecast next-day Chinese daytime stock returns. The US volatility risk (ΔVIX) is particularly powerful in forecasting Chinese stock returns, and plays a dominant role relative to the other six international volatility measures. ΔVIX's forecasting power remains strong after controlling for Chinese domestic volatility and is robust …

Playing Fast And Furious In The Stock Market, Singapore Management University

Research@SMU: Connecting the Dots

Surprising insights into the role of high frequency traders and short sellers revealed by Professor Ekkehart Boehmer’s research.

See the papers:

• Short selling and the price discovery process
• Which shorts are informed?
• The competitive landscape of high-frequency trading firms
• The Good News in Short Interest

How Hedge Funds Beat The Market, Singapore Management University

Research@SMU: Connecting the Dots

From epic tales spun around investment legends Ray Dalio and George Soros, to the secretive, high-octane world of Wall Street, the hedge fund has attained a worldwide notoriety for being an opaque, unwieldy beast. Professor Melvyn Teo studies what makes them tick.

See the papers:

• The geography of hedge funds
• The liquidity risk of liquid hedge funds; The liquidity risk of liquid hedge funds
• Limited attention, marital events and hedge funds

The Impact Of Monetary Policy On The Equity Market, Simin Hojat, Mohammad Sharifzadeh

International Journal of Applied Management and Technology

The problem is that prior studies examining the impact of monetary policy instruments on the equity market have produced mixed results. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of changes in money supply (M2), federal funds rate (FFR), and federal funds futures on the expected rate of returns of publicly traded companies. We developed and tested a multifactor capital asset pricing model and applied regression methodologies suitable for panel data analysis to analyze the data. The multiple regression results showed positive moderation effect of M2, and negative moderation and mediation effects of FFR and federal funds futures …

The Archway Investment Fund, Annual Report 2017, Bryant University, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

The Archway Investment Fund, led by professor Asli Ascioglu, is a series of two classes, consisting of a semester focused on Securities Analysis, and a semester of Portfolio Management. The students begin as Securities Analysts, where they gain a foundational knowledge for investment management and financial analysis.

Stock Returns And Industrial Production: A Sectoral Analysis, Griffin Lazarus

CMC Senior Theses

This paper analyzes the relationship between stock returns and future industrial production growth rates from 1926-1940. It replicates the work of Fama (1990) and Schwert (1990) with the intent to see if the relationship continues to hold using sector data. Furthermore, this paper focuses on the 1926-1940 sample period to explore how the relationship is affected by the stock market crash of 1929. It is expected that the relation will be weak for the industry sectors experiencing strong growth prior to the crash. The results indicate that the relationship between stock returns and future industrial production growth rates persists on …

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.

Ipo Ready? Illuminating The Dark Box Of Private Equity, Tyler Gregory Cornellier

Honors Theses and Capstones

The use of public equity data can help combat the challenges private equity funds currently face regarding data availability. The goal is to create a model to provide guidance to both investors and entrepreneurs in the decision-making process. The data gathered would provide insight on how close a private company is to a successful Initial Public Offering (IPO). The idea is that a model, showing the average financial metrics of companies within certain industries during an IPO, can provide new perceptiveness as to how the private company is performing.

The Risk-Return Characteristics And Diversification Benefits Of Fine Wine Investment, Tania Salomon

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis evaluates the risk-return characteristics and diversification benefits of fine wine investment. It compares the historical performance of wine to that of equity, fixed income, real estate, and commodities. I calculate the correlation, volatility, and expected returns of these assets to examine whether adding wine to a portfolio increases its risk-adjusted return. I do this through the Markowitz portfolio optimization technique. The findings suggest that wine has a low correlation with traditional assets, providing diversification benefits. My results also show that adding wine to a portfolio increases its risk-adjusted return only when there is an allocation constraint of 0 …

Portfolio Risk-Return Analysis: The Case Of The Automotive Industry In The Czech Republic, Florin Aliu, Drahomira Pavelkova, Bruce Dehning

Accounting Faculty Articles and Research

Risk has always been the concern of managers and shareholders as a part of decision-making processes. Managers tend to control unsystematic risk mostly while trying to minimize the exposure to systematic (market) risk. The paper aims to assess the risk level and risk-return tradeoffs for the companies operating in Czech automotive industry. A diversification formula and calculation of returns using return-on-equity were employed on the yearly basis from 2005 till 2014. The returns and risk calculations were conducted on the portfolio of auto manufacturers, followed by the portfolio of auto suppliers, while the third one was performed for suppliers and …

Using Accounting Information To Forecast Market Performance, Tyler Atanasov

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This study examines how accounting information can be used to forecast market performance of stocks. We used the specific accounting information of earnings-to-price and book-to-market value ratios, in relation to a stocks 5-year holding period return to determine market performance. The most current, quarterly data with a longer sample period than previous studies was used. First, portfolios of stocks were formed based on the value of each stocks ratio. Next, univariate tests were then run on each ratio’s portfolios to determine if there was statistical significance in the differences among the portfolios returns. Lastly, we determined that investors could earn …

Capital Structure And Profitability Of Firms In The Corporate Sector Of Pakistan, Sana Tauseef, Heman Das Lohano

Business Review

We examine the impact of debt ratios on returns on equity based on panel data for 179 companies from the non-financial corporate sector of Pakistan for the years 2000 to 2015. The least squares fixed effects estimator reveals that the debt ratio has a significant positive effect on return on equity up to an optimal debt level of 40 percent beyond which it has a significant negative effect.

Realizing Edgar: Eliminating Information Asymmetries Through Artificial Intelligence Analysis Of Sec Filings, Ryan H. Giarusso

Honors Program Theses

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) maintains a publicly-accessible database of all required filings of all publicly traded companies. Known as EDGAR (Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval), this database contains documents ranging from annual reports of major companies to personal disclosures of senior managers. However, the common user and particularly the retail investor are overwhelmed by the deluge of information, not empowered. EDGAR as it currently functions entrenches the information asymmetry between these retail investors and the large financial institutions with which they often trade. With substantial research staffs and budgets coupled to an industry standard of “playing …

Do Credit Ratings Matter? An Examination Of The Relationship Between Sovereign Ratings And Capital Flows Pre And Post Financial Crisis, Greg Violante

Economics Department Student Scholarship

This paper examines the relationship between sovereign credit ratings and international capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs). More specifically, it analyzes how ratings impact capital flows (FDI and portfolio investment) before and after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. This study breaks the data into two samples, pre-crisis (1995-2006), and the post crisis (2007-2015). After using a System GMM method for 20 EMEs, the paper compares the pre- and post- financial crisis credit rating coefficients. The results indicate that the ratings have become more impactful overtime, for both FDI and portfolio investment, although the coefficients are not statistically different. Interestingly however, …