Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

An Integrated Analytics Model For Evaluating Strategic Investments Under Volatile Conditions, Atul Chandra, R. Hartley

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Strategic projects are exposed to multiple uncertainties within a competitive environment that result in trade-off between two decisions, early investment that pre-empts competitors versus delay to allow resolution of uncertainties. Unlike the binary net present value (NPV) based decision to invest or abandon now, our multiple volatility real option games approach (MVR games) frames strategic investment decisions as a dynamic process for future options. It is a decision tree framework that computes and analyses strategic net present value (SNPV) using four MVR games modules and decision making. SNPV combines NPV with two offsetting real option and strategic values. Real option …

Queuing Uncertainty Of Limit Orders, Bart Yueshen Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Limit orders submitted around the same time are subject to random latencies and will be queued accordingly. In equilibrium, end-of-queue limit orders always lose money—the liquidity supply appears excessive. The model generates empirical predictions regarding such “overshooting” liquidity: (i) new limit orders appear fleeting—clustered submissions are followed by immediate cancellations, (ii) the resulting cancel-to-add count ratio reflects adverse selection, and (iii) the cancel-to-add size ratio measures high-frequency market-making activity. Welfare can be hurt by the overshooting liquidity if it induces excessive speculation. Overall, the model contributes to a more comprehensive understanding and better utilization of order book data.

Settlement Manipulation In Prediction Markets, David Dai, Ruizhe Jia, Shihao Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Prediction markets increasingly list contracts settling on an asset price that holders can move by trading the underlying. We build a model showing that such contracts transfer wealth from prediction-market liquidity traders to manipulators and harm price discovery in the underlying, even as it becomes more liquid. After the launch of Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin contract, settlement-time spot order flow spikes, causing large price reversals after settlement. Manipulators capture a large amount of profit, mostly from retail. Manipulation is largely absent in the fifteen-minute contracts: lengthening the contract horizon removes it, providing the market-design remedy our model and evidence support.

Credit Card Analysis, Di Wu

Open Educational Resources

A credit card business unit at a bank is facing a retention problem. More customers are leaving the bank's credit card services, and the retention manager wants to identify which customers are most likely to churn so the bank can intervene before the account is lost.

The bank has customer demographic, relationship, and transaction data for more than 10,000 credit card customers. The data includes age, gender, education, income category, card category, months on book, customer inactivity, contact frequency, credit limit, revolving balance, transaction amount, transaction count, and whether the customer attrited.

You are a business analyst on the bank's …

Investment Decision Making, Muhammad Yaseen, Di Wu

Open Educational Resources

A newly established commercial bank, founded in 2021, has accumulated excess capital reserves. The bank is evaluating long-term investment options to deploy this capital in a way that balances growth and risk. The investment committee is considering two primary strategies: investing in a diversified technology-focused ETF, QQQ, or investing directly in selected individual technology stocks.

The bank's senior management wants capital growth, but it also needs to manage risk exposure. A bank cannot treat an investment decision only as a search for the highest return. It must also consider volatility, concentration risk, liquidity, downside periods, and whether the strategy fits …

Ai-Augmented Financial Advisors: Comparing Ai And Human Analyst Investment Recommendations In Agreement, Performance, And Firm Size Effects, Crystal Chen

Honors College Theses

This study examines the level of agreement and performance between artificial intelligence (AI) generated investment recommendations and human analyst recommendations across U.S. publicly traded firms. Using a sample of twelve companies categorized by firm size (large, mid, and small), the study collects buy, hold, or sell recommendations from generative AI systems and human analysts. Agreement between AI-to-AI and AI-to-human recommendations is measured using Cohen’s Kappa agreement. Portfolio performance is evaluated by constructing equal-weighted portfolios for each recommendation source and size category. Risk-adjusted returns are measured using the Sharpe ratio over 1-, 2-, and 3-month periods. Furthermore, the study tests whether …

Generating A Bond Option Binomial Tree Model In Excel, Tom Arnold, C. Mitchell Conover, Joseph Farizo, Nancy Tran

Finance Faculty Publications

We demonstrate how to adjust the Katolay, Williams, and Fabozzi (1993) binomial tree model for pricing option-embedded bonds to have separate binomial trees for the forward rate process and for the component bond prices (actual bond prices or derived from a yield curve).  This reduces computational complexity at a given node within a single binomial tree.  Further, the calibration method is performed on “spine” values for the forward rate binomial tree, which is more consistent with the actual forward rates that are utilized as initial values in the calibration process.  The entire model is produced in Excel and uses new …

Assessing Youtube Finance Influencers: Guidance Or Hype For Generation Z?, Alyse Alfred

DU Undergraduate Research Journal Archive

This study evaluates the content of YouTube finance influencers (finfluencers) to assess whether they provide overly promotional advice or can help improve the low financial literacy of Generation Z. A total of 407 videos sampled using the nine knowledge areas tested in the TIAA Institute Personal Finance Index (P-Fin Index) were analyzed using Structural Topic Modeling (STM). Eight topics were observed in the videos, ranging from general literacy to emergency planning. Comparing the observed topics to the P-Fin Index categories showed that finfluencers address six of the nine key areas of financial literacy, with gaps in the coverage of long-term …

Do Complex Models Matter? Evidence From Multiclass Machine Learning Models In Credit Outlook Prediction, Rashmi Malhotra, Davinder K. Malhotra, Robert Nydick, Nathan Coates

College of Business Faculty Papers

This research explores whether boosting model complexity enhances the forecasting of corporate financial outlook in a multiclass credit outlook setup. Instead of viewing distress as simply a yes-or-no result, companies are divided into negative, neutral, and positive outlook categories to better reflect shifting credit conditions. The study evaluates a parametric baseline against several nonlinear classifiers—including ensemble, kernel-based, and similarity-driven approaches—while applying a consistent validation process and statistical testing. On average, nonlinear models outperform the linear specification in terms of out-of-sample accuracy and provide more homogeneous classification across the three outlook categories. Importantly, they substantially improve the identification of firms with …

Measuring Stock Market Inefficiency Using A Multilayer Composite Efficiency Index: A Case Of The Egyptian Exchange, Patrick K. Owido, Hiroki Sayama

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Financial markets play a critical role in resource allocation. Their performance depends on the decisions of millions of independent investors constantly reacting to one another. Their informational efficiency remains a subject of debate across economic systems. When informational efficiency is present at the weak form, historical price information should not consistently predict future returns. Several empirical tests of this hypothesis often focus on the behavior of aggregate market indices, and use individual efficiency proxies such as autocorrelation, GARCH-type volatility, or entropy-based measures to measure efficiency. This has often yielded mixed results, particularly in emerging markets. Here we show that testing …

The Impact Of Sustainable Responsible Investment On The Environmental And Financial Performance Of Listed Companies (In The Context Of European Regulatory Framework), Leila Kamara

Engaged Management ReView

Although socially responsible investment (SRI) first emerged in the United States in the 1970s, its influence is now global and booming. The most striking illustration is the increase of signatories to the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI): The number of signatories surged from around 100 in 2006 to more than 5,000 in 2025 (Peillex & Comyns, 2020), confirming that SRI is now central to investment strategies. The landscape of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investment has seen the emergence of new stakeholders, including data providers. However, persistent limitations regarding data transparency, accessibility, and comparability have prevented investors from …

The Impact Of Sovereign Wealth Funds On Emerging Markets: A Behavioral Analysis Of Investment Decisions And Market Reactions, Grant A. Mosshart

Senior Honors Theses

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are increasingly influential in emerging markets, yet the behavioral drivers behind their investments remain underexplored. In this paper, an analysis of SWF capital’s impact on economic development and the psychological factors, such as optimism bias and herding, that shape these decisions is examined. Utilizing a mixed-methods comparative study, the research analyzes Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Singapore’s Temasek Holdings. Event study analysis reveals a divergent impact: the PIF’s high-profile developmental commitment to India generated a positive 5-day Cumulative Abnormal Return of +2.05%, confirming a macro-level “seal of approval” signaling effect. By contrast, Temasek’s commercially …

Decision-Making In Early-Stage Startups: How Venture Capitalists And Angel Investors Evaluate Uncertainty, Andrew M. Pence

Dissertations

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine how venture capitalists (VCs) and angel investors (AIs) make investment decisions regarding early-stage startups. Using an Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA) framework—consisting of three core components: phenomenology, hermeneutics, and idiography—this study draws upon three decision-making models: the Rational Actor Model (RAM), the Heuristics and Biases model (H&B), and the Naturalistic Decision-Making model (NDM) to explore what motivates VCs and AIs to choose, for instance, “Company A over Company B.” Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 experienced venture investors to examine how they evaluate risk, assess founders and teams, and navigate the persistent uncertainty …

Economic Perspectives On Medical Training: A Specialty-Level Break-Even Analysis For Wayne Trained Physicians, Michael Niculcea, Joseph Kunnappilly, Isaak Miller, Connor Genschaw, Biola Makinde-Odusola

Medical Student Research Symposium

Title:

Economic Perspectives on Medical Training: A Specialty-Level Break-Even Analysis for Wayne Trained Physicians

Michael Niculcea, Joseph Kunnappilly, Isaak Miller, Connor Genschaw, Biola Makinde-Odusola

Background:

U.S. medical students graduate with high educational debt, yet financial literacy remains overlooked in medical school curricula. Trainees enter residency with a limited understanding of how specialty and loan repayment strategies affect long-term finances. Break-even analysis, which identifies when total revenue exactly offsets total costs, can help students at Wayne State University School of Medicine (WSUSOM) better visualize the factors shaping their financial futures.

Methods:

This analysis assumes 4 years of medical school financed entirely …

Key Determinants Of Diamond Value, Tobey Brill, Alexander Dobrovolskyi, Rayland Labayog

Undergraduate Economics Working Paper Series

This paper intends to examine the determinants of diamond pricing using a hedonic regression framework. Using the diamonds dataset from Wickham (2016), we analyze the four C’s, also known as carat weight, cut, color, and clarity. We also wanted to go deeper into this topic and look into the depth and table to see how it impacts diamond pricing. Results have displayed that carat weight greatly influences a diamond’s price, while characteristics such as clarity, color, and cut exert positive effects. Estimates were found to be statistically significant. Our findings confirm and reassure the idea that hedonic pricing accurately captures …

Simple Determinants Of Commercial Bank Failures, Matthrew Qi

Undergraduate Economics Working Paper Series

This study investigates the internal and macroeconomic determinants of commercial banking failures in the United States spanning 1959 to 2025. Using a logit model and a four-quarter lag, two models are estimated: a comprehensive model (1985–2025) and an extended panel model (1960–2025). Empirical results reveal internal CAMELS metrics are primary determinants of survival; profitability and capital adequacy defends against failures, while asset quality deterioration and management inefficiencies accelerates failure. The “too big to fail” paradigm is empirically validated. Contractionary monetary policy and labor market stress increase failure probabilities. Real GDP growth exhibits a role shift predicting commercial bank failures.

Las Vegas Casino Revenue In An Expanding Gambling Market, Kaden A. Villa-Real

Undergraduate Economics Working Paper Series

This study examines whether expanding gambling substitutes disrupt the Las Vegas gambling industry using quarterly data from 2014 through 2025. Las Vegas casino revenue is used as the benchmark to gauge the health of Las Vegas, adjusted to Quarter 1 2014 dollars and using an OLS regression model. The results imply that online sports betting is a poor substitute for Las Vegas revenue, while online gambling shows a positive and statistically significant relationship with revenue. The findings indicate that Las Vegas is resilient despite the introduction of more competition and gambling alternatives within an industry it has traditionally known to …

Gambling Behaviors: How Do Gambling Losses Affect Future Wagers?, Ashley Talavera, Hannah Lopez Ibarra, Roman Rozbitskyy

Undergraduate Economics Working Paper Series

This study looks at how previous gambling losses affect future betting behavior in online cryptocurrency gambling markets. Using roughly 50,000 real betting observations from Bustabit, the paper tests whether gamblers become more aggressive after losses or instead pull back and bet more cautiously. Using both OLS and Fixed Effects regression models, the results show that players generally reduce their wager sizes following losses rather than engage in strong loss-chasing behavior. After controlling for individual player tendencies, the Fixed Effects models show statistically significant decreases in future bet sizes after losses, suggesting that caution and loss aversion may play a larger …

Crowding In Private Capital For Climate Adaptation In India, Shreya Bajaj

Master in Public Policy Theses

Reports show that India is highly vulnerable to climate change. Mitigation efforts alone cannot address these risks, and adaptation remains essential. Yet while much of the existing literature documents the adaptation finance gap, it offers less practical guidance on where private capital can realistically be used and what institutional arrangements are needed to make it work. This paper tries to address that gap in the Indian context.

This paper examines three adaptation finance use cases through which private capital could support climate adaptation and resilience in India: parametric disaster risk transfer, pooled municipal finance, and water fund. For each issue, …

A Just Reimagining Of The Loss & Damage Fund, Sarah Cheung

Master in Public Policy Theses

The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), established at COP28 in 2023, represents a historic diplomatic breakthrough in multilateral climate finance, yet its design reflects the compromises necessary to secure political agreement rather than a just institutional architecture. This thesis evaluates the FRLD and two prominent reform proposals—the Bridgetown Initiative 3.0 and Esther Duflo's Grand Bargain—against a novel framework that provides a more precise way to evaluate the “justness” of different arrangements. This framework encompasses three dimensions: compensatory, distributive, and procedural justice. [JS1] A dimension of justice is achieved in a two-fold manner; first, through rhetorical commitments in …