Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

National And Regional Bank Deposits And Their Relationship To The Stock Market, Joseph Zhong

CMC Senior Theses

Institutional investors started using bank deposits as a Leading Economic Indicator to predict stock market returns. I find that bank deposits lead stock market returns by 2 weeks at the national level. Examining the mechanism through which bank deposits affect stock market returns, existing literature postulates the Bank Deposit Lending Channel: increased bank deposits increase financial liquidity, powering and leading stock market returns. I do not find evidence for the Bank Deposit Lending Channel. In my regional analysis, I find that bank deposit behavior differs drastically between US regions. In general, regional bank deposits still lead stock market returns. In …

Startup Equity To Stock Exchange: Key Drivers In Venture-Backed Ipo Journeys, Aryaman Shiv Khosla

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates the components that shape the probability of a venture capital (VC) backed company’s ability to transition from private to public markets through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The study employs logistic regression models to analyze firm-specific and funding-related determinants of IPO likelihood. Key predictors in this study include total VC funding, number of VC rounds, average deal size growth, size of first round, average days between rounds, company age, number of employees, and primary industry sector. The findings reveal that higher total funding increases IPO likelihood, highlighting the critical role of robust capital access in fueling growth …

A Multiple Perspective Analysis On Urban Poverty In Developing Nations: A Case Study On Nigeria, Colonial Implications, And Modern-Day Outcomes, Julian Rivera-Williams

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will dissect urbanization and poverty in Nigeria as a case study of the challenges of underdevelopment and the lingering effects of colonialism in Africa. To draw a complete understanding of challenges faced by developing nations facing systemic underdevelopment, high poverty, and low productivity– nations like Nigeria, my research will uncover colonial impacts and post-colonial policies that initiated urban poverty and underdevelopment outcomes we see today. The purpose of my thesis is to encompass existing fragmented academia on the causes and consequences of underdevelopment and connect historical implications to current impacts of global development today including the influence of …

Better Than Blume: An Approach To Forecasting Future Stock Betas With Linear Bayesian Models And Sample-Wide Priors, Kian Shah

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of stock beta forecasts by comparing the widely used Blume adjusted beta to four Bayesian regression models I developed. Stock beta, an essential measure of systematic risk, plays a crucial role in portfolio management and valuation; however, raw betas lack forecasting capabilities. While various attempts have been made to develop alternative beta forecasting models, the Blume adjustment remains the most commonly used. To evaluate this, I created four Bayesian models utilizing a single, sample-wide set of priors, simplifying the computational requirements compared to stock-specific priors. The analysis is based on daily return data for …

Uncovering Earnings Management In The U.S. Tech Industry: Strategies To Meet Or Just Beat Analyst Eps Expectations, Morgan Schilling

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates earnings management practices within the U.S. tech industry, focusing on firms that meet or just beat analyst EPS expectations. I specifically built off the Stubben (2010) model that used discretionary revenue to identify potential mismanagement across multiple industries. The modified model incorporates deferred revenue as well as accounts receivable to identify revenue recognition practices in an industry where subscription based revenue is highly relevant. I hypothesize that tech firms with aggressive revenue recognition strategies, particularly those with higher levels of accounts receivable, are more likely to engage in earnings management in order to meet EPS targets. A …

Unlocking Value Or Signaling Trouble? Exploring The Determinants Of Immediate Market Reactions To Underwater Employee Option Exchanges, Riley Lai

CMC Senior Theses

Whether employee option exchanges are an effective process to ensure a firm’s future outlook is vital for companies to consider. Evaluating the impact of these exchanges on firm value and shareholder wealth can provide insights for companies to align employee incentives with shareholder interests. This paper seeks to determine a definitive correlation between employee option exchange announcements and positive or negative abnormal returns over the announcement window. The focus is on the regulatory environment post-Section 409A, a provision in the Internal Revenue Code that prohibits the issuance of in-the-money employee stock options. This paper fills a significant gap in the …

The Public Face Of Private Credit: Performance Dynamics In Business Development Companies, Russell Kuan

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the performance dynamics of public Business Development Companies (BDCs) – a unique and growing component of the private credit market that bridges public and private financing. Publicly traded BDCs provide critical capital to underserved middle-market firms, while giving investors access to private credit opportunities. Using a hand-pulled dataset derived from 10-K filings and supplemental sources, this research identifies the key financial and operational factors driving BDC performance, with a focus on senior secured loan allocations, portfolio yield, and leverage strategies. The findings reveal that portfolio yield and senior secured loan allocations are significant predictors of total returns …

Altman Z-Score Relationship With Stock Price Performance After Layoff Announcements, Natalie Phillips

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the broader implications of such workforce reductions, historically prevalent in corporate environments since the advent of "new capitalism" in the late 20th century. Characterized by intense global competition, deregulation, and technological advancements, this era saw a surge in corporate downsizing as a means to enhance efficiency and competitiveness. Despite the strategic intentions, layoffs often signal underlying organizational challenges, prompting critical inquiry into their short- and long-term impacts on firm performance and investor sentiment. Central to this study is the exploration of whether a firm's Altman Z-Score, a metric predicting bankruptcy risk, influences stock price reactions following layoff …

Forecasting Equity Betas Using Option-Implied Moments, Ivan Kolesnikov

CMC Senior Theses

Traditional beta estimates are constructed from historical stock‑and‑market returns and therefore adjust only as fast as realized data accrue. This thesis investigates whether the forward‑looking information embedded in equity‑option prices can enhance beta forecasts. Using near‑end‑of‑day quotes for 236 S&P 500 firms between 2007 and 2024, I extract risk‑neutral variance and skewness, construct five alternative beta estimators (historical, option‑implied, and three hybrids), and evaluate them against realized betas over six‑, twelve‑, and twenty‑four‑month windows. Rolling‑OLS beta remains the most accurate benchmark at short horizons, yet option‑implied moments add economically and statistically significant value when systematic exposure is expected to change …

The Pricing Of Forecast-Based Earnings Uncertainty In Equity Markets, Brenda G. Galvan

CMC Senior Theses

This paper constructs a firm-level measure of earnings forecast uncertainty by adapting the macroeconomic methodology of Jurado et al. (2015) to micro-level financial statement data from Compustat and CRSP. Using a two-stage estimation procedure, I first forecast the scaled year-over-year changes in earnings, defined as the change in income before extraordinary items normalized by firm sales,based on lagged firm fundamentals. I then model the squared forecast errors to extract the unpredictable component of earnings variation, generating a forward-looking, firm-specific measure of ex-ante uncertainty. Empirically, I examine whether this forecast uncertainty measure is priced in equity markets by regressing future stock …

The Effect Of The Tcja And Cares Act On Charitable Contributions And The Financial Health Of The Nonprofit Sector, Nathanio A. Bright

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act of 2020 on charitable contributions and nonprofit financial health. The standard deduction increase introduced by the TCJA disincentivized middle to low-income earners from making contributions. In March 2020, Congress temporarily increased the AGI limit on charitable deductions while simultaneously offering an above-the-line deduction for all U.S. taxpayers. While earlier studies have analyzed the effect of the TCJA in disincentivizing charitable contributions, no study has examined the moderating effect of the TCJA and CARES Act in affecting contributions …

Optimizing Bitcoin Allocation: Predictability Of Bitcoin Portfolio Weights Through Macroeconomic Variables, Kirby Baynes

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether Bitcoin is a beneficial asset in a diversified, mean-variance optimized portfolio and whether its portfolio weights can be reliably predicted using macroeconomic variables. Using data from December 2013 to February 2025, the analysis applies rolling-window portfolio optimization and OLS regressions with Newey-West standard errors to test the relationship between Bitcoin allocations and a set of macroeconomic indicators. Results show that Bitcoin receives non-zero weights across portfolios and that its optimal allocation is sensitive to variables such as changes in the Credit Spread and Yield Curve. These variables were statistically significant in several models and produced meaningful …

Scaling Social Impact Bonds In The United States: Barriers, Incentives, And Policy Solutions, Angelique M. Rivanis

CMC Senior Theses

Social Impact Bonds (SIBs) are a form of outcomes-based financing that fund social programs by shifting financial risk from the government to private investors. While SIBs have gained international traction, their long-term viability in the United States depends on structural reforms. This thesis examines two completed U.S. SIB projects, Rikers Island in New York and the Just-in-Reach project in Los Angeles, through an analysis of their design, implementation, and outcomes. While both projects focus on criminal justice, they provide context about the scalability of SIBs across multiple social policy areas.The three primary constraints are high transaction costs, limited investor interest, …

High-Yield Or Nothing? Investor Preferences For Riskier Bonds In Thailand, Thamon Chongkwanyuen

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

This study investigates the determinants of investor demand for high-yield corporate bonds in Thailand's primary market between 2014 and 2024, focusing on whether investors exhibit reach-for-yield behavior and how they respond to past issuance patterns. Utilizing panel regression, with the Take-Up Ratio serving as the key measure of investor participation, the findings reveal that investor behavior is highly conditional. In normal or tightening monetary periods, high nominal yields and credit spreads are generally associated with lower subscription rates, suggesting investors interpret elevated returns as a signal of greater credit risk. However, this risk aversion is reversed during accommodative monetary conditions …

Accounting Aspects Of Appraisals, Raymond A. Weber

Bachelors’ Theses

The purpose of this thesis is to explain the application of appraisals to the following specific accounting problems: 1. The Establishment of Plant Accounts 2.The Determination of Invested Capital 3. The Distribution of Departmental Investment

It is important to keep accurate property records in every line of industry; yet property accounts are subject to many inaccuracies, and their correct maintenance offers many perplexing problems to the accountant. This thesis is, therefore, an attempt to point out some of the more common errors which creep into property records, and to show how appraisals may be applied to correct these errors. Particular …

Investing In The Age Of Generative Ai: A Gpt-Based Sentiment Analysis Approach, Xianrong Zheng

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

Generative AI, which ushers a new age of AI, comes with huge economic potential. To capitalize the AI boom, investors are interested in trading AI stocks. AI chatbots, which can identify and classify the sentiment from financial news, can be leveraged for investment. So, this paper proposes a GPT-based sentiment analysis approach for trading AI stocks. Also, natural experiments are conducted to evaluate its effectiveness. Initial results show that the approach achieves a good rate of return.

Hitting The Jackpot: What Drives Casino Hotel Stock Returns’ Predictability?, Thach Pham, Deepa Bannigidadmath, Edmund Goh, Anna Golab

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Forecasting casino hotel stock prices are strategically important to key stakeholders making investment decisions. However, there is a paucity of studies that have examined the impact of macro-economic variables, sector-specific variables and firm-specific variables on casino stock returns. This research fills a research gap by examining the predictability of Australian casino hotel stock returns. The forecasting of casino hotel stock prices was modelled using econometric panel predictive regression analysis through the efficacy of 26 predictors comprising macroeconomic variables, sector-specific variables, and firm-specific variables as predictors. All eight casinos listed on the Australia Stock Exchange (ASX) were included in our sample. …

2025 Finance Calendar, Amanda Christensen, Melanie Jewkes, Andrea Schmutz, Vincenza Vicari-Bentley, Kelan Combe, Rochelle Allen, Lauren Olsen, Jenny Weller

All Current Publications

The 2025 Financial Calendar outlines small monthly steps to improve your finances over the year.

Amending Regulation D'S Accredited-Investor Definition To Allow Natural Persons To Opt Out Of Unwanted Regulatory Protections, John L. Orcutt

Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law

No abstract provided.

Consumer Financial Data And Non-Horizontal Mergers, Linda Jeng, Jon Frost, Elisabeth Noble, Chris Brummer

Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law

This Article explores the potential competitive implications of non-horizontal mergers where they involve extensive consumer data, including consumer financial data. As data become increasingly central to firm strategy, mergers between data-rich firms, while potentially leading to positive outcomes, can also create market power in ways not entirely accounted for by traditional antitrust theory. The Article considers some of these implications. It introduces new metrics for valuing data sets held by merging firms that could help competition authorities evaluate market impacts more effectively. The Article then suggests potential tools to mitigate anti-competitive effects of data-rich mergers. It advocates for further research …