Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Forecasting Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility, Gregory H. Bauer, Keith Vorkink

Faculty Publications

We present a new matrix-logarithm model of the realized covariance matrix of stock returns. The model uses latent factors which are functions of lagged volatility, lagged returns and other forecasting variables. The model has several advantages: it is parsimonious; it does not require imposing parameter restrictions; and, it results in a positive-definite estimated covariance matrix. We apply the model to the covariance matrix of size-sorted stock returns and find that two factors are sufficient to capture most of the dynamics.

Why Did U.S. Banks Invest In Highly-Rated Securitization Tranches?, Isil Erel, Taylor Nadauld, René M. Stulz

Faculty Publications

We estimate holdings of highly-rated tranches of mortgage securitizations of American deposit-taking banks ahead of the credit crisis and evaluate hypotheses that have been advanced to explain these holdings. We find that holdings of highly-rated tranches were economically trivial for the typical bank, but banks with greater holdings performed more poorly during the crisis. Though univariate comparisons show that banks with large trading books had greater holdings, the holdings of highly-rated tranches are not higher for banks with large trading books in regressions that control for bank size. The ratio of highly-rated tranches holdings to assets increases with bank assets, …

Style-Related Comovement: Fundamentals Or Labels?, Brian H. Boyer

Faculty Publications

I find that economically meaningless index labels cause stock returns to covary in excess of fundamentals. S&P/Barra follow a simple mechanical procedure to define their Value and Growth indices. In doing so, they reclassify some stocks from Value to Growth even after their book-to-market ratios have risen, and vice versa. Such stocks begin to covary more with the index they join and less with the index they leave. Backdated constituent data from Barra reveal no such label-related shifts in comovement during the 10 years prior to the actual introduction of the indices in 1992.

Behavioral Economics Perspectives On Public Sector Pension Plans, John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian

Faculty Publications

We describe the pension plan features of the states and the largest cities and counties in the U.S. Unlike in the private sector, defined benefit (DB) pensions are still the norm in the public sector. However, a few jurisdictions have shifted towards defined contribution (DC) plans as their primary savings plan, and fiscal pressures are likely to generate more movement in this direction. Holding fixed a public employee‘s work and salary history, we show that DB retirement income replacement ratios vary greatly across jurisdictions. This creates large variation in workers‘ need to save for retirement in other accounts. There is …

Using Implementation Intentions Prompts To Enhance Influenza Vaccination Rates, Katherine L. Milkman, John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian

Faculty Publications

We evaluate the results of a field experiment designed to measure the effect of prompts to form implementation intentions on realized behavioral outcomes. The outcome of interest is influenza vaccination receipt at free on-site clinics offered by a large firm to its employees. All employees eligible for study participation received reminder mailings that listed the times and locations of the relevant vaccination clinics. Mailings to employees randomly assigned to the treatment conditions additionally included a prompt to write down either (1) the date the employee planned to be vaccinated or (2) the date and time the employee planned to be …

Consumer Financial Protection, John Y. Campbell, Howell E. Jackson, Brigitte C. Madrian, Peter Tufano

Faculty Publications

Over the past 65 years, fi nancial innovation has presented U.S. households with an ever-widening set of fifi nancial options from an expanding set of fifi rms and accompanied by a sometimes dizzying amount of information. At the same time, consumer fifi nance has increasingly become a “do-it-yourself ” activity (Ryan, Trumbull, and Tufano, 2010). Households are expected to make decisions about pension plan contributions and payouts, to choose from a wide array of credit instruments to fund everything from home purchase to short-term cash needs, and more generally to assume a greater level of responsibility for their fifi nancial …

The Impact Of Continuing Education Modules On The Moral Obligations And Responsibilities Of Financial Advisors, Sandy Modell

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Increased life expectancies and a significant reduction in the number of corporate pension plans nationwide have made the prospects of retirement a challenge for many of us. The burden of funding retirement will move from the corporation or government to the individual. Those individuals with limited financial experience will most likely need the guidance of a financial advisor. Can we trust and rely upon them? Following the 2004 late trading scandal and the 2008 financial meltdown, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") implemented Continuing Education requirements at the advisor level. The intent was to improve the quality and integrity of …

Essays On Hedge Fund Replication: Methodological Assessment And Development Of The Factor Approach, Nonlinear Modeling And Policy Perspectives, Guillaume Weisang

2011

This dissertation is concerned with hedge fund replication, a subject of a practical and theoretical importance, both from an investment and a risk management point of view. One of our goals is to extend known methodologies in order to enhance our understanding of an industry that is known for its secrecy and its lack of transparency. A second goal is to contribute to the quantitative finance literature with improved techniques for hedge fund replication. Hedge fund replication (HFR) is approached from the methodological as well as from practical and regulatory perspectives. The first two chapters provide the motivation and the …

The Effect Of The Introduction Of A Clearinghouse On Trading Costs: The New York Stock Exchange In The 1890s, Sara Reed

CMC Senior Theses

As one of the oldest and most innovative financial institutions, a clearinghouse efficiently clears and settles payments for equity transactions as well as other securities. However, this paper will only be concerned with common and preferred equity securities. The purpose of a clearinghouse is to reduce counterparty risk. It acts as an intermediary between two parties, so that the risk of one party failing to honor its contractual obligation is diminished. It reduces settlement risk through netting, the process of eliminating offsetting transactions, thus decreasing the amount of cash flow. I examine the impact of the New York Stock Exchange …

Quantifying The Variance Risk Premium In Vix Options, Reed M. Hogan

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis uses synthetically created variance swaps on VIX futures to quantify the variance risk premium in VIX options. The results of this methodology suggest that the average premium is -3.26%, meaning that the realized variance on VIX futures is on average less than the variance implied by the swap rate. This premium does not vary with time or the level of the swap rate as much as premiums in other asset classes. A negative risk premium should mean that VIX option strategies that are net credit should be profitable. This thesis tests two simple net credit strategies with puts …

Analyzing The Effects Of Credit Rating Changes, The Recent Financial Crisis And Other Variables On Firms' Debt Levels, Sean M. Wasserman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper utilizes a sample of firms over the years 2000–2009 to test the effects of credit rating changes, the financial crisis, interest rates, and other variables on short-term, long-term, and total debt levels on the balance sheet. Each independent variable was created using a one year lag in order to run the regressions. The values of these variables from the previous year are being analyzed to see if they can predict debt levels for the following year. The results of this paper suggest that levels of long-term and total debt are somewhat reliant on and are positively correlated with …

Determinants Of Corporate Cash Holdings, Yun Lai (William) Li

CMC Senior Theses

The paper explores the driving forces behind corporate cash holdings by analyzing past literature and extending this research to the behavior of firms after the 2008 recession. I look at the cash to assets and net debt to assets ratios from October 1980 to October 2011 to obtain an understanding of the past and current state of cash holdings. A comprehensive literature review is done on agency costs and transactional motives to give the reader an overview of the costs and benefits of holding cash. This provides the foundation for the precautionary motives for companies today to keep cash as …

The Success Of Long-Short Equity Strategies Versus Traditional Equity Strategies & Market Returns, Lauren J. Buchanan

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the performance of long-short equity trading strategies from January 1990 to December 2010. This study combines two financial screens that will yield candidates for both long and short positions for each month during the aforementioned time period. Two long-short strategies are tested: (1) perfectly-hedged, or equal allocation to long and short positions, and (2) net-long. The results of this thesis reveal that if a long-short equity manager is able to successfully determine what companies are overvalued and undervalued and actively rebalance their portfolio, perfectly-hedged and net-long strategies can generate superior risk-adjusted alpha.

Performance Of The Indian Banking Industry Over The Last Ten Years, Saumya Lohia

CMC Senior Theses

This paper analyzes the performance of Indian banks over the period of the last ten years. It uses the CAMEL Framework to determine the performance of public and private banks in India. The paper also conducts an empirical analysis to determine the share price performance of Indian banks relative to the share price performance of banks in Hong Kong, Europe and the US. This paper finds that private banks perform better than public banks overall based on the CAMEL Framework. In addition it also finds that the Indian banks share price performance is dependent on the share price performance of …

Life Planning For Nfl Players, Ryan Pedersen

CMC Senior Theses

With players in the National Football League (NFL) making what seems to be the most money out of any entry-level position, it might come as a shock to many people to hear that so many players end up in financial distress afterwards.  Sports Illustrated has put this number at 78% of players filing for bankruptcy or are in serious financial trouble within only two years of leaving the league (Torre).

The problems that the players run into are their short careers, which average 3 ½ years, their poor financial decisions and their very optimistic approach to life.  The 3 ½ …

Effect Of Lockup Agreements On Buyout Backed Initial Public Offerings, Grant B. Heffernan

CMC Senior Theses

Using a sample of 279 buyout backed firms, I examined the effect of lockup agreements on the firm’s stock returns. I found there to be a negative .8 percent cumulative abnormal return for the three-day period surrounding lockup expiration. Consistent with my hypothesis the CAR for the three-day period surrounding lockup expiration was less negative for buyout backed IPOs compared to venture capital backed IPOs. In addition, I found there to be an abnormal 24.24 percent increase in trading volume for the three days surrounding lockup expiration.

Imf Conditionality, Fiscal Policy, And Income Inequality In Latin America, Nicholas Egger-Bovet

CMC Senior Theses

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the leading international economic crisis manager, but the effects of its loans and conditionality reach far beyond overarching macroeconomic indicators. This paper will examine the consequences of IMF fiscal policy conditions on income inequality and poverty by examining cases in Latin America, and specifically Mexico during the 1980s. The role that internal politics within borrowing countries plays is also closely examined. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for the IMF to ensure the most equitable and effective means of overcoming balance of payments crises.

Take Me Out Of The Ball Game: The Efficacy Of Public Subsidies In The Success Of Professional Sports Stadiums, Jonah Chodosh

CMC Senior Theses

This paper weights the relative advantages of multiple factors that lead to the success of professional sports stadiums in major markets, though a discussion of the arguments for and against public subsidies towards these projects. Using a logit statistical model, the paper determines that the two factors determining the highest likelihood of venue success include multiple tenants and access to mass transit. The analysis demonstrates that public subsidies towards stadiums don’t generate sufficient economic returns, and that successful stadiums can be created without using taxpayer funds.

The Persistence Of Pricing Differentials In Dual-Listed Companies In Hong Kong And China, Justin Spitzer

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past two decades a number of Chinese companies have issued shares on both the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and on one of the Chinese stock exchanges. The Hong Kong-listed H-shares of Chinese dual-listed companies have traded at a persistent discount rate relative to the China-listed A-shares. As these shares represent the same ownership rights and cash flows, the shares should theoretically trade at the same price. The price differential between H-shares and A-shares should decrease as international markets continue to converge. The paper analyzes the persistence of the discount rates and the effects of both market and investor …

The Never Ending Attraction Of The Ponzi Scheme, Pearl Jacobs, Linda Schain

Criminal Justice Faculty Publications

In the 1920’s, Charles Ponzi engaged in a notorious money making scheme. This scheme had been tried before but no one prior to Charles Ponzi had managed to swindle millions of dollars out of unsuspecting people. Thus, the scheme bears his name. In December 2008, Bernard Madoff, a major Ponzi schemer, was exposed. He managed to con investors out of over $65 billion over a thirty year period. Madoff was a highly respected financial expert. The investors were mostly well educated and supposedly financially savvy. How did this happen? This paper will examine some theories which may help explain both …