Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Volume Information In Nikkei And Topix Futures Transactions, Chyng Wen Tee, Christopher Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

According to the Kyle (1985) model of informed trading, information in trade size is likely to effect a permanent price impact, as opposed to bid-ask bounce, which mainly captures transitory price fluctuation. However, two prominent structural models in the literature do not include trade size in their framework. In this paper, we present a nesting relationship of major structural models and formulate a generalized model that includes all relevant trade variables. A new measure to quantify the amount of information in the order flow is proposed. Using this price impact measure, our empirical analysis shows that it is indeed the …

An Economic Regression Model To Predict Market Movements, Timothy A. Smith, Andrew Hawkins

Publications

In finance, multiple linear regression models are frequently used to determine the value of an asset based on its underlying traits. We built a regression model to predict the value of the S&P 500 based on economic indicators of gross domestic product, money supply, produce price and consumer price indices. Correlation between the error in this regression model and the S&P’s volatility index (VIX) provides an efficient way to predict when large changes in the price of the S&P 500 may occur. As the true value of the S&P 500 deviates from the predicted value, obtained by the regression model, …

Industry Interdependencies And Cross-Industry Return Predictability, David E. Rapach, Jack Strauss, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We use the adaptive LASSO from the statistical learning literature to identify economically connected industries in a general framework that accommodates complex industry interdependencies. Our results show that lagged returns of interdependent industries are significant predictors of individual industry returns, consistent with gradual information diffusion across industries. Using network analysis, we find that industries with the most extensive predictive power are key central nodes in the production network of the U.S. economy. Further linking cross-return predictability to the real economy, lagged employment growth for the interdependent industries predicts individual industry employment growth. We also compute out-of-sample industry return forecasts based …

Emergence Of Fintech And The Lasic Principles, David K. C. Lee, Ernie G. S. Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Financial technology (FinTech) has been receiving much attention lately. For instance, global investments in FinTech ventures (covering sectors from remittances, loans to payments) have grown 3 times from US$ 4.05 billion in 2013 to US$ 12.21 billion in 2014 (Accenture, 2015). Although the development of FinTech is still in early stages, they will define and shape the future of the financial industry. Even though there are large amounts of funds entering the market, not all FinTech ventures will be successful; various factors (both internal and external) are crucial. We identify some of these factors which we term the LASIC (Low …

Financing Terrorism: A Look At The Past, Present, And Future Of Defunding Terror Organizations, Mitchell Wasmund

University Honors Program

Terrorism is a major problem facing governments across the globe in the 21st century. Terror organizations, domestic and international, are complex and vary in structure as well as how they are financed. By using various governmental and journalistic resources, this paper will examine four different terror organizations in how they are operated and financed. It will focus on what are the current practices by law enforcement officials to stop the sources of terror organizations’ funds. This paper will also examine future areas of concern related to where terror organizations will receive their financing in the future. The impacts of economic …

Nyse To Stop "Stop Orders", Steven D. Dolvin

All Chapters

On August 24, many stocks fell by large percentages, only to recover shortly thereafter. Investors with standing stop-loss orders likely didn't fair well. And, in fact, many are blaming these orders for the volatility. The NYSE plans to eliminate stop orders, but brokerage firms can still facilitate these for their customers, as long as the final order is sent at market. See article here, Bloomberg.

Lower Minimum Investment, Steven D. Dolvin

All Chapters

Charles Schwab cut the initial minimum investment from $2,500 to $100 for most of the mutual funds on its Mutual Fund OneSource platform, which charges no transaction fees. At the same time, it cut the minimum for subsequent investments from $500 to $1. See article here, Financial Advisor Magazine.

2015 Q3 Market Pulse Report, Craig R. Everett

Pepperdine Market Pulse Report

The quarterly IBBA and M&A Source Market Pulse Survey was created to gain an accurate understanding of the market conditions for businesses being sold in Main Street (values $0-$2MM) and the lower middle market (values $2MM -$50MM). The national survey was conducted with the intent of providing a valuable resource to business owners and their advisors. The IBBA and M&A Source present the Market Pulse Survey with the support of the Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project and the Graziado School of Business and Management at Pepperdine University.

2015 Q4 Private Capital Access Index Report, Craig R. Everett

Pepperdine Private Capital Access Report

The Pepperdine Private Capital Access Index (PCA) is a quarterly indicator produced by the Graziadio School of Business and Management at Pepperdine University, and with the support of Dun & Bradstreet. The index is designed to measure the demand for, activity, and health of the private capital markets. The purpose of the PCA Index is to gauge the demand of small and mediumsized businesses for financing needs, the level of accessibility of private capital, and the transparency and efficiency of private financing markets.

Behavioral Finance: Its History And Its Future, Robert Christopher Hammond

Selected Honors Theses

The field of behavioral finance has attempted to explain a litany of biases, heuristics, and

inefficiencies present in financial markets since its creation in the 1980’s. This paper is structured as a comprehensive literature review of behavioral finance, and includes both the seminal works as well as more recent papers. The various subtopics of behavioral finance will also be analyzed, which include loss aversion, corporate finance, and momentum/contrarian investing. Finally, this paper will draw unique conclusions across behavioral finance and hypothesize about what topics within behavioral finance are likely to yield the most interesting research in the near future.

New Approach To Density Estimation And Application To Value-At-Risk, Kian Guan Lim, Hao Cheng, Nelson K. L. Yap

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The key contribution in this paper is to provide a new approach in estimating the physical distribution of the underlying asset return by using a quadratic Radon-Nikodym derivative function. The latter function transforms a fitted Variance Gamma risk-neutral distribution that is obtained from traded option prices. The generality of the VG distribution helps to avoid unnecessary mis-specification bias. The estimated empirical distribution is then used to find the risk measure of VaR. We show that possible underestimation of VaR risk using existing methods is largely not due to VaR itself but perhaps due to mis-specification errors which we minimize in …

A Risk- And Complexity-Rating Framework For Investment Products, Benedict S. K. Koh, Francis Koh, David K. C. Lee, Kian Guan Lim, David Ng, Kok Fai Phoon

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Many investors who bought such investments as Lehman Brothers’ minibonds did not understand the products’ complicated features. This fact suggests that if the inherent risk and complexity of products’ structure are not clearly understood by investors, they will be unable to make informed decisions. Some practitioners have recently attempted to calibrate product complexity. The authors propose a framework for classifying investment product risk and complexity separately with a list of factors that contribute to these attributes. They demonstrate the framework’s simplicity and usefulness in helping investors make informed decisions, showing that it can be used to calibrate a variety of …

Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real-Time Detectors, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article provides the limit theory of real-time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (PWY; International Economic Review 52 [2011], 201-26) and in a companion paper by the present authors (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2015; PSY; International Economic Review 56 [2015a], 1099-1134. Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolve as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal market behavior as well as exuberance and collapse. Both the PWY and PSY estimates rely on recursive right-tailed unit root tests (each with a different recursive …

Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles in real time. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real-time data. Use of these methods over long historical periods presents a more serious econometric challenge due to the complexity of the nonlinear structure and break mechanisms that are inherent in multiple-bubble phenomena within the same sample period. To meet this challenge, this article develops a new recursive flexible window method that is better suited for practical implementation with long …

On The Edge Of Disruption, David K. C. Lee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The financial system is on the verge of massive disruption. Innovative competitors operating on sleek business models and offering new alternative services are entering at the bottom of the market, where gross margins are low and latent demand is high. As these new entrants scale and progress through higher market segments, they will erode incumbent pricing power.

The Bright Side Of Political Uncertainty: The Case Of R&D, Julian Atanassov, Brandon Julio, Tiecheng Leng

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the relationship between political uncertainty and R&D investment by exploiting the timing of U.S. gubernatorial elections as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in uncertainty. In contrast to the literature documenting negative effects of political uncertainty on real investment, we find that uncertainty over government policy encourages firm-level R&D. Firms increase R&D investments by an average of 4.6% in election years relative to non-election years. The uncertainty effect is stronger in hotly contested elections, in politically sensitive and hard-to-innovate industries, and in firms subject to higher growth options and greater product market competition. Our findings suggest that, as …

Competition Of The Informed: Does The Presence Of Short Sellers Affect Insider Selling?, Massimo Massa, Wenlan Qian, Weibiao Xu, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how the presence of short sellers affects the incentives of the insiders to trade on negative information. We show it induces insiders to sell more (shares from their existing stakes) and trade faster to preempt the potential competition from short sellers. An experiment and instrumental variable analysis confirm this causal relationship. The effects are stronger for "opportunistic" (i.e., more informed) insider trades and when short sellers' attention is high. Return predictability of insider sales only occurs in stocks with high short-selling potential, suggesting that short sellers indirectly enhance the speed of information dissemination by accelerating trading by insiders. …

The Impact Of High-Order Risk Attitudes On Bank's Loan Policy, Yuchen Luo

Lingnan Theses

It is well known that prudence plays an important role in the process of decision making under uncertainties. However, how prudence affects a bank's decision on extending fixed rate or variable rate loan has not yet been fully examined. In this dissertation, I use definition of second-order expectation dependence to further identify conditions for the risk prudent (imprudent) bank under state-dependent framework to refrain from extending fixed rate loans. Furthermore, using a set of actual data, I apply a recent developed inference procedure for testing positive expectation dependence to demonstrate the significance of my work in empirical applications. In the …

Scholarly Pursuits: Business Insights From Driehaus Faculty Research

Business Exchange

Lessons in Marketing from the "Obama Model"; Lack of Self-Awareness at Work Hurts Team Performance; Award-Winning Research Sheds Light on Shareholder Activism

An Expanding Financial Sector: Continuity And Change Among Dhikur Groups In Lower Mustang, Anna Misenti

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The Thakali people of lower Mustang have a long history of economic success fostered through community systems that function due to cooperation, but are also characterized by competition. One of these traditional systems is dhikur , a system of rotating credit composed of approximately twenty members. This study examines the roles of traditional savings and credit institutions within communities in lower Mustang in the context of the emergence of private financial institutions in Jomsom over the last ten years. My research displayed the strength of these community based organizations in the face of a private financial sector where organizational requirements …