Macroeconomics Commons^™

The Effect Of Financial Inclusion On Food Security: Evidence From Developing And Developed Countries, Yasmin Yasmin, Sekar Utami Setiastuti

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigates the global impact of financial inclusion on food security, with a focus on both developing and developed countries. The study constructs a financial inclusion index using the Sarma method and secondary data sourced from IMF and World Bank databases. System GMM is employed as the estimation method due to its effectiveness in addressing endogeneity issues and its efficient and consistent use of instruments. The analysis reveals that financial inclusion has a positive and statistically significant effect on food security across all research sub-samples. In addition, the study incorporates interaction variables between financial inclusion and the COVID-19 pandemic …

Market For Patents, Monopoly, And Misallocation, Shang-Jin Wei, Jianhuan Xu, Ge Yin, Xiaobo Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper studies a possible “dark side” of patent trade in enhancing the market power of monopolists. We explore the different effects of China’s 2008 tax reform on patent innovations and sales across industries. In particular, although easier patent trade leads to more patent creation, the new patents are disproportionately connected to existing monopolists and are more likely to be acquired by them. Using an endogenous growth model with patent trade, we show that subsidizing patent trade could skew investors’ research to appeal to the monopolists, increase the latter’s monopoly power, and reduce social welfare. An optimal subsidy policy for …

Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This note examines the effects of price-controlled perishable food items on inflation in Fiji. We study year-on-year changes in headline inflation and disaggregate measures of inflation in the form of food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables against three perishable food items used daily by Fijian households, namely, potatoes, onion, and garlic over the period 2019:01-2022:08. We also follow Narayan et al (2023), allowing for the lags and leads framework in examining Fiji’s inflation. Our results show that the leads and lags model explain 22%, 27% and 65% of headline, food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables inflation rates, respectively, over the …

Structure Of Indiana’S Manufacturing Sector During And After The Great Recession: A Spatial Perspective, Arun K. Srinivasan, Kathleen G. Arano, Janardhanan A. Alse

Midwest Social Sciences Journal

The trend in manufacturing employment is on a downward trajectory nationally, further exacerbated by short-term fluctuations. Indiana mirrors this trend, and as such, we explore the structure of the manufacturing sector using a spatial and snapshot approach during and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Using two measures: (1) average firm size and (2) gap in percent of local manufacturing employment, we explain the dynamics at specific periods, viz., 2007 at the beginning of the Recession, 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession, 2014 at a point in recovery from the Great Recession, and 2016 at the endpoint for …

Will The Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 Targets Be Met?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

EARLY THIS YEAR, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. signed the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 (PDP). The document contains hundreds of targets. Some of the key targets to be attained by 2028 are as follows (in fact, the Plan provides yearly targets):

1.) an annual growth rate of 6.5-8% (since 2024); 2.) a gross national income per capita of $6,044-$6,571 (50% higher than that in 2023); 3.) inflation between 2%-4% (from 2.5%-4.5% in 2023); 4.) a government fiscal deficit of 3% (from 6.1% in 2023); 5.) a debt-to-GDP ratio of 48%-53% (from 60%-62% in 2023); 6.) an unemployment rate of 4%-5% (from …

Minimum Exchange Rate And A Negative Interest Rate: The Swiss National Bank’S Unconventional Monetary Policy During Eurozone Volatility, Wally Bargeron

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Monetary policy is one of the most important tools that a government has to influence its economy. This means the ability for a country to determine their own monetary policy is important to that country’s autonomy. Switzerland has consistently based its decisions on what would afford it the highest level of autonomy, including the decision not to join the European Union and subsequently the decision to retain their own currency.

The Swiss National Bank retains the mandate to keep price levels (inflation) stable, but it is challenged by an appreciating currency. Because the Swiss Franc is a safe-haven currency, money …

Treasury Buybacks, The Fed's Portfolio, And Local Supply, Ethan Struby, Michael F. Connolly

Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The U.S. Department of Treasury has announced plans to revive its buyback program after more than two decades. We estimate the effects of the 2000-2002 Treasury Buyback program on Treasury returns and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio. The reduction in supply from the buybacks had significant effects on both the bonds purchased by the buybacks and bonds with similar remaining maturity. Changes in supply contributed about 90 basis points to price returns over the course of the program -- nearly 1/5 of the overall change in prices. At a higher frequency, prices of purchased bonds and …

How Global Value Chains Affect Economic Output And Unemployment: An Empirical Evidence From Asean Countries, Sri Juli Asdiyanti Samuda

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper examines the effects of Global Value Chains on economic output and unemployment in ten ASEAN countries from 1999 to 2018. This study provides estimation using the system GMM and panel causality test to determine the effect of GVC thoroughly. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of global value chains on economic output in ASEAN countries. However, the findings also show that global value chains increase unemployment during the observation period. Heterogenous panel non-causality findings suggest that economic output does not affect the level of participation of GVC, but unemployment affects the level of participation in ten …

Principles Of Macroeconomics (Online), Murat Doral

KSU Distinguished Course Repository

This course is an introduction to the formal study of macroeconomics. Macroeconomics involves the study of the economy as a whole. Topics that are covered include national income determination, the general price level, interest rates, unemployment, and fiscal and monetary policies.

Grameen Method Of Microfinance As A Poverty-Alleviation Tool: Short And Long-Term Effects On Women’S Empowerment In Egypt, Zeina M. Shalaby

The Undergraduate Research Journal

Many people suffer from poverty globally, and economic tools used to combat it have varied from one country to another with some enacting noticeable change. The topic of micro-credit attracted attention after the Grameen Bank’s microfinance method was recognized for decreasing poverty in rural Bangladesh by granting loans to women almost exclusively. This paper explores the application of the Grameen method of microfinance in Egypt by reviewing the specific conditions surrounding women’s poverty in Egypt and the economic and social outcomes of past Grameen microfinance efforts in Egypt. While the Grameen method of microfinance successfully improved well-being indicators and economic …

Striving Toward Bitcoin Price Stability: Second-Layer Money And The Case For Real Bills, Scrip & Notes, Eduardo Blasco, Carlos García De Enterría

Journal of New Finance

Monetary systems comprise various layers of real and financial assets arranged hierarchically. Due to its properties, Bitcoin is a suitable asset to become the base money of a monetary system once its price has stabilized and people see it more like a medium of exchange than an investment. We review Bitcoin’s characteristics and explain their effect on its intra- and inter-temporal liquidity. We argue that Bitcoin will lower its bid-ask spread once users adopt financial assets convertible to Bitcoin. We propose the use of three financial assets working as Bitcoin derivatives to reduce Bitcoin’s demand shocks and lower its volatility: …

Local Labor Markets Exposure To Artificial Intelligence, Greg Call

Dissertations

As more evidence builds that artificial intelligence (AI) is a new general-purpose technology driving a fourth industrial revolution, scholars have begun to consider its potential impact on labor markets. The current debate among researchers is centered on whether AI will ultimately produce net new job gains or losses and what type of workers will benefit or be displaced. While no consensus has developed yet within the literature on AI’s predicted net employment impact, a majority of studies are forecasting that a skill-biased technological change will occur.

This exploratory study contributes to the current literature by operationalizing Webb’s objective patent-based AI …

Inflation: Causes And Consequences, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

First of all, let me thank Tariq Ikram and Hassan Tariq for providing me this opportunity to share my thoughts with you this morning and I’m very impressed by the presentations of the panel who are specialists in their own fields. So I won’t repeat very much what we heard this morning in the first session and also from my fellow panelists but I would pick up on the point which Atif left at the end. People don’t realize that beginning of the inflation in Pakistan is not solely externally induced through the pandemic, the supply disruptions, the price hikes, …

Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Price bubbles in multiple assets are sometimes nearly coincident in occurrence. Such near-coincidence is strongly suggestive of co-movement in the associated asset prices and is likely driven by certain factors that are latent in the financial or economic system with common effects across several markets. Can we detect the presence of such common factors at the early stages of their emergence? To answer this question, we build a factor model that includes I(1), mildly explosive, and stationary factors to capture normal, exuberant, and collapsing phases in such phenomena. The I(1) factor models the primary driving force of market fundamentals. The …

Democratic Facades, Authoritarian Penchants: Post-Communist Monetary Restructuring In The Baltic States, Jokubas Salyga

Political Science Faculty Publications

This paper argues that the paths taken by Estonia and Latvia in their departure from the rouble zone are illustrative of authoritarian neoliberal governance. By challenging the widely assumed simultaneity of ‘democratic’ and ‘market’ revolutions, it critiques institutionalist literature on Baltic exchange-rate regimes and sheds light on the various methods employed to curtail democratic political discourse and participation. The paper delves into the origins of the Baltic neoliberal historical blocs and identifies the social forces that influenced the development of monetary reform initiatives. It then explores the construction of exchange-rate systems through the lens of power struggles within the state …

Regresi Ambang Untuk Mendalami Pengaruh Nonlinier Kekuatan Pasar Terhadap Pinjaman Bank Di Asean-5, Mahjus Ekananda

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Credit distribution has developed rapidly in the ASEAN region and it is largely dominated by the banking sector compared to other financial institutions. This study explores the effects of various changes to the GDP growth regime, firm size, and monetary policy. The objects of this research are commercial banks in ASEAN-5 from year 2010 to 2019. This study utilises the threshold regression method and a single proxy to measure market power. Results of this study found that monetary policy and market forces affect productive credit. Changes in impact that occur are mostly due to different behavior between banks in response …

Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks

Journal of New Finance

Several euro area economies are likely to experience a stagflation in 2023. This situation is characterized by a combination of economic stagnation, i.e., GDP growth falling below its potential growth rate, and a pronounced increase in inflation as was last observed during the 1970s’ oil crisis. A stagflation presents the European Central Bank with a dilemma. Should it further tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to align euro area inflation (expectations) with its target of two per cent p.a. in the medium term? Or should the ECB re-adopt a more accommodative stance so as to stimulate economic growth in …

Revisiting The Exchange Rate Pass- Through To Domestic Prices In Egypt, Ahmed Abdelhamid

Theses and Dissertations

Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) refers to the extent to which the movements in the exchange rate influence domestic prices. This study revisits the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt using quarter data from 2006 to 2022. The study employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to estimate the degree of ERPT. The findings suggest that ERPT in Egypt is incomplete, meaning that changes in the exchange rate do not fully pass through to consumer prices. The study also investigates the role of the money supply in absorbing the shocks in the nominal exchange rate. The study has important implications for policymakers …

Quality Of Growth And Poverty In Low Income Countries: The Role Of Manufacturing, Raul V. Fabella, Sarah Lynne S. Daway-Ducanes, Geoffrey Ducanes

Economics Department Faculty Publications

Both the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which ended in 2015, and its replacement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations which will end in 2030, target the eradication of poverty. The 2020 Covid pandemic has seriously worsened poverty incidence in many low income countries, and recovering lost ground is paramount. As low income economies try to establish a new normal, they need to aim not only for higher overall economic growth but also for a higher quality of economic growth for improved inclusion outcome. Higher quality means more inclusion per unit growth. We discuss how for the same …

The Economic Analysis Of Conflicts And Peace In Autocratic And Democratic Regimes In Africa, Oluwole Owoye

Journal of African Conflicts and Peace Studies

This paper uses conceptual economics to explain how conflicts and peacebuilding are linked to economic growth/development in Africa. Both conflicts and peace have contagion effects in many countries worldwide, and in some cases, conflicts have morphed into regional and international problems. Conceptually, the monotonicity of conflicts and peace functions are invariant with respect to autocratic and democratic forms of governance in Africa. One of the main assertions of this study is that whether or not we have stable autocratic and/or democratic forms of governance, protracted conflicts have negative impact on sustainable economic growth in Africa. In addition, we found that …