Macroeconomics Commons^™

Legal Setbacks, Disbursement Sudden Stops, And Fiscal Stimulus: An Empirical Characterization Of A Recent Philippine Characterization Of A Recent Philippine Fiscal Experience, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Mariel Monica R. Sauler

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

No abstract provided.

Macroeconomic Determinants Of Stock Market Development In Sample African Economies, Ehab Ayoub

Theses and Dissertations

This research paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic determinants as independent variables and different measures of stock market development as dependent variables across selected emerging economies in Africa for the period of 2002 to 2021, with a quarterly frequency using time series analysis. The independent variables used are Core Inflation, Deposit Rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), FX Rate against USD, Domestic Credit, Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP), Exports, Imports, External Debt, and Foreign Reserves. We use these variables as our main determinants of measuring economic growth. With regards to stock market development, we use four proxy measures as our benchmark, …

Economic Forecasting In Singapore: The Covid-19 Experience, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

This Special Feature considers how accurately professional forecasters have predicted GDP growth and inflation in Singapore, especially during rare events such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. It also illustrates the value of forecast probability distributions in inferring forecasters’ uncertainty when making predictions, and the degree of consensus between projections from different forecasters. The authors find that one-year ahead forecast errors for GDP growth and inflation increased during the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic. While professional forecasters did not appear to have followed the Government’s forecasts when predicting growth during the GFC, they may have exhibited ”leader-following” behaviour …

Modeling And Forecasting Inflation Rate In Nigeria: A Comparison Of Regression With Arima Errors And Arima Method, Barthelomew I. Ugwuanyi

Bullion

The paper aimed to determine the most appropriate method for forecasting inflation rate in Nigeria between Regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. This study uses annual data for the period 1990-2021 from World Bank. One response variable and three predictor variables are adopted. The best ARIMA method was selected from the competing ARIMA methods using Akaike Information Criterion Corrected (AICC), while the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are used to select the best forecast method between the two methods of interest. The result of this …

Assessment Of Fuel Prices As Determinants Of Inflation In Nigeria: A Vecm Approach, Adekunle B. Alexander Dr., Pelumi A. Abdulmalik

Bullion

This study examines the effect of petroleum price on the direction of inflation in Nigeria - whether or not movement in prices of other goods and services responds to increase in pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS) otherwise known as petrol in Nigeria. The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality tests to estimate the long-run relationship between petro! price and inflation as well as direction of causality for the 1991- 2021 period. Data for the study were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and World Bank data indicators covering inflation, pump-price of …

High-Dimensional Vars With Common Factors, Ke Miao, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies high-dimensional vector autoregressions (VARs) augmented with common factors that allow for strong cross-sectional dependence. Models of this type provide a convenient mechanism for accommodating the interconnectedness and temporal co-variability that are often present in large dimensional systems. We propose an ℓ1-nuclear-norm regularized estimator and derive the non-asymptotic upper bounds for the estimation errors as well as large sample asymptotics for the estimates. A singular value thresholding procedure is used to determine the correct number of factors with probability approaching one. Both the LASSO estimator and the conservative LASSO estimator are employed to improve estimation precision. The conservative …

On Income Inequality And Poverty In Egypt: Is Prosperity Immoral?, Mohamed Karim Lotfy Abdelkhalek

Theses and Dissertations

There are varying perspectives on, and divergent solutions to, the phenomena of income inequality and poverty. There seems to be polarizing views on both of these sensitive topics. One side of the argument believes income inequality should in itself be mitigated through redistribution measures, while the other argues that this should not be the focus of policy makers, as it deters them from facing the more pressing issue facing society – which is absolute poverty. The relationship between income inequality, poverty, and citizen well-being in Egypt is one that warrants further research, and this paper aims to fill this lacuna. …

Rising Interest Rates: What They Mean For You And The Economy, Timothy Meyer

Cornhusker Economics

Discusses rising interest rates what they mean for agricultural workers and the economy.

Asymmetric Effects In Geopolitical Risk And Foreign Reserves Accumulation Among Brics Countries, Kwame O. Asomaning

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Over the past decade, the rise of Geopolitical Risk (GPR) has had a significant effect on macro financial variables, prompting central banks to accumulate reserves as a "war chest" to protect their economies from the detrimental effects of such shocks. This study examines the asymmetries in the long run, short run, and locational asymmetric effects on foreign reserves in the BRICS countries, using both the Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) and Quantile ARDL (QARDL) models over the period 2000Q1–2021Q4. The results of the NARDL model suggest that GPR has long-run asymmetric effects for BRICS, while in the short run, all countries display …

Evolving Marketization, Societal Trends, And Indicators In Chile And The Andean Region, Cristian Andres Sepulveda, Clifford J. Shultz, Mark Peterson

Markets, Globalization & Development Review

The effects of marketization on Chile and the broader Andean Region are profound and systemic. Key indicators reveal trends toward economic growth, improved social conditions, and sustainable development. The marketization of the Andean Region, however, is a complex and evolving process. We report on recent developments, which necessitate some reflection on trends and prognoses. In particular, while marketization has led to better education, increased social mobility, and enhanced well-being, one of the most important challenges facing countries in the region is ensuring that the benefits of marketization are shared equitably among all members of society. Priorities include further improvements in …

A Novel Parking Management In Smart City Vehicular Datacenters, Syed Rizvi, Susan Zehra, Steven Olariu

College of Sciences Posters

Researchers have shown that most vehicles spend the majority of their time parked in parking garages, lots, or driveways. During this time, their computing resources are unused and untapped. This has led to substantial interest in Vehicular Cloud, an area of research in which each vehicle acts as a computation node. The main difference between traditional cloud computing and vehicular cloud computing is the availability of nodes. In traditional clouds, nodes are available 24/7, while in vehicular clouds, nodes (vehicles) are only available while parked in parking lots. This creates a dynamic environment as vehicles enter and exit parking garages …

Loose Pamphlets, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• The global financial system after the meltdown. Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, & Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies. 2009. New York. [Unpublished conference materials].
• Stability with growth: macroeconomics, liberalization and development. Ocampo, J. A., Stiglitz, J. E., Spiegel, S., Ffrench-Davis, R., & Nayyar, D. 2006. Oxford University Press.
• The predator state: how conservatives abandoned the free market and why liberals should too. Galbraith, J. K. 2008. Free Press.
• Balancing acts: technology, finance and the American future. Galbraith, J. K. 1989. Basic Books.
• Created unequal: the crisis in American pay. Galbraith, J. K. 1998. …

Three Essays On Macroeconomic Shocks, Chase Coleman

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation looks at the role that various macroeconomic shocks have on the economy through the lens of both macro- and micro-economic perspectives. In the macro realm, I examine the importance of how researchers measure shocks; functional shocks reveal information latent in scalar shocks. From the micro point of view, I examine the impact of a change in national tax policy.

In Chapter 2, I analyze the effect of monetary policy shocks on household consumption. Measuring shocks as shifts in the entire term structure of interest rates reveals a heterogeneous response of households to conventional and unconventional policies. I find …

Impact Of Goods And Money Market Indicators On Stock Market Index In Nigeria, Adamu Hassan, Mika'‘Ilu Abubakar

Bullion

This study examines the influence of goods and money

market indicators on the performance of the Nigerian

stock market index from 1985 to 2021 using

Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The findings

demonstrate that goods market indicators such as

domestic savings and government spending have a

strong positive effect on the performance of the stock

market index, but domestic investment has a negative

influence on the performance of the stock market index.

This is because majority of the investors in goods market

are financially excluded and have no access to formal

financial system. The results of the money market reveal

that …

Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is applied to model the dynamics of the long-term swap yield. The findings reinforce and extend John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that in advanced countries, as well as emerging market economies such as China, …

Marx's Last Theorem, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2012). Wicksell effect is monotonic. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2012). Ratio of complex numbers. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2016). Classical theory of price-matrix algebra. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2017). Zambelli - one curve was.... Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2015). Fitting a curve to the observed values and relation of fitted curve to corresponding probability distributions. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2020). Empirical distribution function of eigenvalues = edf. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2015). Eigenvalue distribution & means. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, A. (2015). Weibull & eigenvalue distribution. Unpublished manuscript. …

An Analysis Of Demand-Pull Inflation In The United States Post-Pandemic, Isabella A. Moynihan

Honors Theses

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a global shutdown of the economy resulting from both demand and supply shocks. Also, the significant decline in output and employment in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic led to a fast reaction from the government in the form of large fiscal rescue packages. At the end of 2021, the acceleration of inflation, which had been dormant for more than four decades, became the main topic of macroeconomic debates. The debate has revolved around the influence of cost-push versus demand-pull causes of inflation. The dominant view in the United States has been that inflation resulted …

The Labor Share In The Post-1980 Economy: An Analysis Of The Contributing Factors, Mia Bellucci

Honors Theses

During the Neoliberal period, which roughly began in the early 1980s in the U.S., there was a substantial slowdown in the growth rate of real hourly compensation, while productivity had continued to grow. The last two decades of the Neoliberal period (2000 – 2020) also experienced somewhat of a substantial decline in the labor share. In recent decades, there has been a growing amount of literature attempting to explain the major factors that have contributed to these recent labor market developments. This study provides a means of investigating the changes in the labor share and its components (i.e., real hourly …

A Qualitative Study On The Financial Education Of Young Black Men, Sue M. May

University of the Pacific Theses and Dissertations

Financial literacy awareness is low among young adults, and financial literacy among Black college students is significantly lower than in other groups (Singh, 2018). However, there is little to no research on why financial literacy is so low among young Black men between 18 and 25. Few studies specifically show how financial literacy and decision-making may be related to their family economics and socialization for young Black men. Using Critical Race Theory and Family Financial Socialization theoretical frameworks, this dissertation project examined a sample of seven young self-identified Black men ages 24 to 25 years old in Northern California Bay …

Religion And Economic Growth: Evidence From U.S. Counties, Luke Petach, Aiden Powell

Faculty Scholarship

This paper examines the impact of religious participation on regional economic growth. Using data on GDP growth for United States counties from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Regional Economic Accounts and data on county-level religious participation from the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA), this paper estimates the impact of religiosity on growth using two-way fixed-effects Barro regressions for the period 2000 to 2020. In our preferred specification, a ten percentage-point increase in the county religious adherent share reduces the 10-year compound annual growth rate of per-capita GDP by 0.14 percentage points (a 19% reduction relative to the sample …