Statistics and Probability Commons^™

How Many Are Out There? A Novel Approach For Open And Closed Systems, Zia Rehman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

We propose a ratio estimator to determine population estimates using capture-recapture sampling. It's different than traditional approaches in the following ways: (1) Ordering of recaptures: Currently data sets do not take into account the "ordering" of the recaptures, although this crucial information is available to them at no cost. (2) Dependence of trials and cluster sampling: Our model explicitly considers trials to be dependent and improves existing literature which assumes independence. (3) Rate of convergence: The percentage sampled has an inverse relationship with population size, for a chosen degree of accuracy. (4) Asymptotic Attainment of Minimum Variance (Open Systems: (=population …

Measuring Circuit Splits: A Cautionary Note, Aaron-Andrew P. Bruhl

Faculty Publications

A number of researchers have recently published new measures of the Supreme Court’s behavior in resolving conflicts in the lower courts. These new measures represent an improvement over prior, cruder approaches, but it turns out that measuring the Court’s resolutions of conflicts is surprisingly difficult. The aim of this methodological comment is to describe those difficulties and to establish several conclusions that follow from them. First, the new measures of the Court’s behavior are certainly imprecise and may reflect biased samples. Second, using the Supreme Court Database, which some studies rely on to assemble a dataset of cases resolving conflicts, …

Methods For Integrative Analysis Of Genomic Data, Paul Manser

Theses and Dissertations

In recent years, the development of new genomic technologies has allowed for the investigation of many regulatory epigenetic marks besides expression levels, on a genome-wide scale. As the price for these technologies continues to decrease, study sizes will not only increase, but several different assays are beginning to be used for the same samples. It is therefore desirable to develop statistical methods to integrate multiple data types that can handle the increased computational burden of incorporating large data sets. Furthermore, it is important to develop sound quality control and normalization methods as technical errors can compound when integrating multiple genomic …

Applications Of Bayesian Nonparametrics To Reliability And Survival Data, Li Li

Theses and Dissertations

Reliability and survival data are widely encountered across many common settings. Subjects under investigation often include machines, bioassays, patients, etc.; their reliability or survival distribution, and its association with covariate processes, are commonly of interest. Within this dissertation, the first two chapters focus on reliability data where repairable systems fail and get interventions, e.g. repairs in the event process. It begins with a nonparametric test for the commonly assumed ''good as old'' assumption for minimal repair models and then a semi-parametric regression model is introduced for reliability data using Kijima's effective age. The third chapter focuses on survival data observed …

Methods For Clustering Mixed Data, Jeanmarie L. Hendrickson

Theses and Dissertations

We give a brief introduction to cluster analysis and then propose and discuss a few methods for clustering mixed data. In particular, a model-based clustering method for mixed data based on Everitt's (1988) work is described, and we use a simulated annealing method to estimate the parameters for Everitt's model. A penalized log likelihood with the simulated annealing method is proposed as a remedy for the parameter estimates being drawn to extremes. Everitt's approach and the proposed method are compared based on their performance in clustering simulated data. We then use the penalized log likelihood method on a heart disease …

Bayesian Analysis Of Continuous Curve Functions, Wen Cheng

Theses and Dissertations

We consider Bayesian analysis of continuous curve functions in 1D, 2D and 3D spaces. A fundamental feature of the analysis is that it is invariant under a simultaneous warping/re-parameterization of all target curves, as well as translation, rotation and scale of each individual if necessary. We introduce Bayesian models based on a special curve representation named Square Root Velocity Function (SRVF) introduced by Srivastava et al. (2011, IEEE PAMI). A Gaussian process model for the SRVFs of curves is proposed, and suitable prior models such as the Dirichlet distribution are employed for modeling the warping function as a cumulative distribution …

A Bayesian Model Of Fertility Decisions In Relationship To Female Labor Force Participation, Rebecca C. Wardrop

Senior Independent Study Theses

Due to the increasing number of women in the labor force, opportunity costs associated with labor force participation are becoming an important factor in fertility decisions. Further, these decisions are assumed to be dynamic as the opportunity costs change as a woman progresses through her career. A Bayesian statistical model , which allows the distribution of the likelihood of having children to be updated as information is gathered, lends itself to the dynamicity of the decision-making process. A generalized model for fertility decisions in terms of labor force participation is created. I also discuss potentials for implementation and furthering the …

Latent Variable Models Given Incompletely Observed Surrogate Outcomes And Covariates, Chunfeng Ren

Theses and Dissertations

Latent variable models (LVMs) are commonly used in the scenario where the outcome of the main interest is an unobservable measure, associated with multiple observed surrogate outcomes, and affected by potential risk factors. This thesis develops an approach of efficient handling missing surrogate outcomes and covariates in two- and three-level latent variable models. However, corresponding statistical methodologies and computational software are lacking efficiently analyzing the LVMs given surrogate outcomes and covariates subject to missingness in the LVMs. We analyze the two-level LVMs for longitudinal data from the National Growth of Health Study where surrogate outcomes and covariates are subject to …

The Total Picture: Multiple Chemical Exposures To Pregnant Women In The Us – An Nhanes Study Of Data From 2003 Through 2010, Teri Cabana

Theses and Dissertations

INTRODUCTION: Chemical exposures to US pregnant women have been shown to have adverse health impacts on both mother and fetus. A prior paper revealed that US pregnant women in 2003-2004 had widespread exposure to multiple chemicals. The goal of this research is to examine how environmental chemical exposures to US pregnant women have changed from 2003 to 2010 and to look further at the extent of simultaneous exposure to multiple chemicals in US pregnant women using biomonitoring data available through NHANES (the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey). METHODS: Using available NHANES data from the following cycles (2003-2004, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, …

Modelling And Analysis On Noisy Financial Time Series, Jinsong Leng

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Building the prediction model(s) from the historical time series has attracted many researchers in last few decades. For example, the traders of hedge funds and experts in agriculture are demanding the precise models to make the prediction of the possible trends and cycles. Even though many statistical or machine learning (ML) models have been proposed, however, there are no universal solutions available to resolve such particular prob-lem. In this paper, the powerful forward-backward non-linear filter and wavelet-based denoising method are introduced to remove the high level of noise embedded in financial time series. With the filtered time series, the statistical …

A Monte Carlo Study: The Consequences Of The Misspecification Of The Level-1 Error Structure, Merlande Petit-Bois

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Single-case interventions allow for the repeated measurement of a case or participant across multiple time points, to assess the treatment¡͞s effect on one specific case or participant. The basic interrupted time series design includes two phases: baseline and treatment. Raudenbush and Byrk (2002) demonstrated that a meta-analysis of large group designs can be seen as a special case of multi-level analysis with participants (level-one) nested within studies (level-two). Raw data from a set of single case design studies have a similar structure. Van den Noortgate and Onghena (2003) illustrated the use of a two-level model to analyze data in primary …

Hierarchical Graphical Bayesian Models In Psychology, Guillermo Campitelli, Guillermo Macbeth

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

The improvement of graphical methods in psychological research can promote their use and a better comprehension of their expressive power. The application of hierarchical Bayesian graphical models has recently become more frequent in psychological research. The aim of this contribution is to introduce suggestions for the improvement of hierarchical Bayesian graphical models in psychology. This novel set of suggestions stems from the description and comparison between two main approaches concerned with the use of plate notation and distribution pictograms. It is concluded that the combination of relevant aspects of both models might improve the use of powerful hierarchical Bayesian graphical …

Risk Factors For Physical Violence Against Partners In The U.S., K. Daniel O'Leary, Nathan L. Tintle, Evelyn Bromet

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

Objective: To examine unique and relative predictive values of demographic, social learning, developmental, psychopathology, and dyadic variables as risk factors for perpetration of intimate partner physical aggression in a national sample of married or cohabiting individuals. Method: Men (n = 798) and women (n = 770) were selected from the public use data file of the 2003 National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R) which used a multistage cluster sampling design. Results: Eight percent of women and 5% of men reported perpetrating physical aggression in the past year. Based on multivariable regression analyses, among men, the unique risk factors for perpetrating physical …

In Defense Of Defense: A Statistical Look At Roster Construction, Coaching Strategy, And Team Defense In The National Basketball Association, Luke Ronald Peterson

Honors Program Theses

The three major organized sports featured in the United States – baseball, basketball, and football – cover the spectrum of analytic probability. Baseball, with its basic two parts, pitcher and batter, lies at the easy or low end of the analytic spectrum and so it was the first sport to be studied. From early baseball cards first appearing in the 1890s to The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstracts of the 1980s to the SABRmetrics of today, baseball coaches and fans everywhere are adding a page on analytic probability to their playbooks. Football lies at the high or difficult end of …

Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts For Monitoring The Process Generalized Variance, Anna Khamitova

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

The exponentially weighted moving average chart based on the sample generalized variance is studied under the independent multivariate normal model for the vector of quality measurements. The performance of the chart is based on an analysis of the chart's initial and steady-state run length distributions. The three methods that are commonly used to determinate run length distribution, simulation, the integral equation method, and the Markov chain approximation are discussed. The integral equation and Markov chain approaches are analytical methods that require a nu- merical method for determining the probability density and cumulative distribution functions describing the distribution of the sample …

Statistical Analysis Of Unreplicated Factorial Designs Using Contrasts, Meixi Yang

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Factorial designs can have a large number of treatments due to the number of factors and the number of levels of each factor. The number of experimental units required for a researcher to conduct a $k$ factorial experiment is at least the number of treatments. For such an experiment, the total number of experimental units will also depend on the number of replicates for each treatment. The more experimental units used in a study the more the cost to the researcher. The minimum cost is associated with the case in which there is one experimental unit per treatment. That is, …

Generalized Weibull And Inverse Weibull Distributions With Applications, Valeriia Sherina

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

In this thesis, new classes of Weibull and inverse Weibull distributions including the generalized new modified Weibull (GNMW), gamma-generalized inverse Weibull (GGIW), the weighted proportional inverse Weibull (WPIW) and inverse new modified Weibull (INMW) distributions are introduced. The GNMW contains several sub-models including the new modified Weibull (NMW), generalized modified Weibull (GMW), modified Weibull (MW), Weibull (W) and exponential (E) distributions, just to mention a few. The class of WPIW distributions contains several models such as: length-biased, hazard and reverse hazard proportional inverse Weibull, proportional inverse Weibull, inverse Weibull, inverse exponential, inverse Rayleigh, and Frechet distributions as special cases. Included …

An Exploration Of “Non-Economic” Damages In Civil Jury Awards, Herbert M. Kritzer, Guangya Liu, Neil Vidmar

Faculty Scholarship

Using three primary data sources plus three supplemental sources discussed in an appendix, this paper examines how well non-economic damages could be predicted by economic damages and at how the ratio of non-economic damages to economic damages changed as the magnitude of the economic damages awarded by juries increased. We found a mixture of consistent and inconsistent patterns across our various datasets. One fairly consistent pattern was the tendency for the ratio of non-economic to economic damages to decline as the amount of economic damages increased. Moreover, the variability of the ratio also tended to decline as the amount of …

Primary Care-Based Educational Interventions To Decrease Risk Factors For Metabolic Syndrome For Adults With Major Psychotic And/Or Affective Disorders: A Systematic Review, Cynthia Nover, Sarah S. Jackson

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background

Individuals with major psychotic and/or affective disorders are at increased risk for developing metabolic syndrome due to lifestyle- and treatment-related factors. Numerous pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions have been tested in inpatient and outpatient mental health settings to decrease these risk factors. This review focuses on primary care-based non-pharmacological (educational or behavioral) interventions to decrease metabolic syndrome risk factors in adults with major psychotic and/or affective disorders.

Methods

The authors conducted database searches of PsychINFO, MEDLINE and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, as well as manual searches and gray literature searches to identify included studies.

Results

The authors were …

Efficient And Long-Time Accurate Second-Order Methods For The Stokes-Darcy System, Wenbin Chen, Max Gunzburger, Dong Sun, Xiaoming Wan

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

We propose and study two second order in time implicit-explicit methods for the coupled Stokes-Darcy system that governs flows in karst aquifers and other subsurface flow systems. the first method is a combination of a second-order backward differentiation formula and the second order Gear's extrapolation approach. the second is a combination of the second-order Adams-Moulton and second-order Adams-Bashforth methods. Both algorithms only require the solution of decoupled Stokes and Darcy problems at each time-step. Hence, these schemes are very efficient and can be easily implemented using legacy codes. We establish the unconditional and uniform in time stability for both schemes. …