Survival Analysis Commons^™

The Rocket: Analyzing Rtp (Return To Player), Payoff Distribution And Player Behavior In Crash Games, Mikhail M. Sher, Robert Haywood Scott Iii, Jonathan A. Daigle

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Rocket is a crash game developed by DraftKings, an American publicly traded online casino, sports betting and fantasy sports company. DraftKings Rocket is a game played with a rising rocket. Players must exit the rocket at any point before the rocket crashes. In that case they receive the payoff in accordance to the multiplier of their exit point. If the rocket crashes before the player bails, player’s payoff is 0 (and they lose their bet).

The game boasts an unprecedented 97% RTP (Return to Player). For comparison, Atlantic City casino slots typically have a 91-92% RTP, while Vegas casino …

Empirical Likelihood Ratio Tests For Homogeneity Of Distributions Of Component Lifetimes From System Lifetime Data With Known System Structures, Jingjing Qu

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

In system reliability, practitioners may be interested in testing the homogeneity of the component lifetime distributions based on system lifetimes from multiple data sources for various reasons, such as identifying the component supplier that provides the most reliable components.

In the first part of the dissertation, we develop distribution-free hypothesis testing procedures for the homogeneity of the component lifetime distributions based on system lifetime data when the system structures are known. Several nonparametric testing statistics based on the empirical likelihood method are proposed for testing the homogeneity of two or more component lifetime distributions. The computational approaches to obtain the …

A New Generalized Gamma-Weibull Distribution And Its Applications, Nihimat Iyebuhola Aleshinloye, Samuel Adewale Aderoju, Alfred Adewole Abiodun, Bako Lukmon Taiwo

Al-Bahir Journal for Engineering and Pure Sciences

In this paper, a New Generalized Gamma-Weibull (NGGW) distribution is developed by compounding Weibull and generalized gamma distribution. Some mathematical properties such as moments, Rényi entropy and order statistics are derived and discussed. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is used to estimate the model parameters. The proposed model is applied to two real-life datasets to illustrate its performance and flexibility as compared to some other competing distributions. The results obtained show that the new distribution fits each of the data better than the other competing distributions.

Forecasting Remission Time Of A Treatment Method For Leukemia As An Application To Statistical Inference Approach, Mahmoud Mansour, Rashad El-Sagheer, Ahmed Galal Attia, Beha S. El-Desouky Prof.

Basic Science Engineering

In this paper, Weibull-Linear Exponential distribution (WLED) has been investigated whether being it is a well-fit distribution to a clinical real data. These data represent the duration of remission achieved by a certain drug used in the treatment of leukemia for a group of patients. The statistical inference approach is used to estimate the parameters of the WLED through the set of the fitted data. The estimated parameters are utilized to evaluate the survival and hazard functions and hence assessing the treatment method through forecasting the duration of remission times of patients. A two-sample prediction approach has been applied to …

Striving For Appropriate Antibiotic Use: A Biomarker Initiative, And Outcomes Associated With Azithromycin Exposure, Amanda Gusovsky

Theses and Dissertations--Pharmacy

The introduction of antibiotics into clinical practice is considered the greatest medical breakthrough of the 20^thcentury. However, the use of antibiotics can contribute to the development of resistance. In the United States (U.S.), approximately 2.8 million people are infected with antibiotic-resistant bacteria each year, and more than 35,000 people die as a result. Moreover, some antibiotics are known to cause cardiac side effects including QT prolongation, hypotension, and ventricular arrythmias. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines appropriate antibiotic use as the effort to use “the right antibiotic, at the right dose, for the right …

Regression Modeling Of Complex Survival Data Based On Pseudo-Observations, Rong Rong

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a clinically meaningful summary measure in studies with survival outcomes. Statistical methods have been developed for regression analysis of RMST to investigate impacts of covariates on RMST, which is a useful alternative to the Cox regression analysis. However, existing methods for regression modeling of RMST are not applicable to left-truncated right-censored data that arise frequently in prevalent cohort studies, for which the sampling bias due to left truncation and informative censoring induced by the prevalent sampling scheme must be properly addressed. Meanwhile, statistical methods have been developed for regression modeling of the cumulative …

Dynamic Prediction For Alternating Recurrent Events Using A Semiparametric Joint Frailty Model, Jaehyeon Yun

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

Alternating recurrent events data arise commonly in health research; examples include hospital admissions and discharges of diabetes patients; exacerbations and remissions of chronic bronchitis; and quitting and restarting smoking. Recent work has involved formulating and estimating joint models for the recurrent event times considering non-negligible event durations. However, prediction models for transition between recurrent events are lacking. We consider the development and evaluation of methods for predicting future events within these models. Specifically, we propose a tool for dynamically predicting transition between alternating recurrent events in real time. Under a flexible joint frailty model, we derive the predictive probability of …

Statistical Methods For Personalized Treatment Selection And Survival Data Analysis Based On Observational Data With High-Dimensional Covariates., Don Ramesh Dinendra Sudaraka Tholkage

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Due to the wide availability of functional data from multiple disciplines, the studies of functional data analysis have become popular in the recent literature. However, the related development in censored survival data has been relatively sparse. In Chapter 2, we consider the problem of analyzing time-to-event data in the presence of functional predictors. We develop a conditional generalized Kaplan Meier (KM) estimator that incorporates functional predictors using kernel weights and rigorously establishes its asymptotic properties. In addition, we propose to select the optimal bandwidth based on a time-dependent Brier score. We then carry out extensive numerical studies to examine the …

New Developments On The Estimability And The Estimation Of Phase-Type Actuarial Models, Cong Nie

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis studies the estimability and the estimation methods for two models based on Markov processes: the phase-type aging model (PTAM), which models the human aging process, and the discrete multivariate phase-type model (DMPTM), which can be used to model multivariate insurance claim processes.

The principal contributions of this thesis can be categorized into two areas. First, an objective measure of estimability is proposed to quantify estimability in the context of statistical models. Existing methods for assessing estimability require the subjective specification of thresholds, which potentially limits their usefulness. Unlike these methods, the proposed measure of estimability is objective. In …

Statistical Modeling Of Longitudinal Medical Cost Data, Shikun Wang

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

Projecting the future cancer care cost is critical in health economics research and policy making. An indispensable step is to estimate cost trajectories from an incident cohort of cancer patients using longitudinal medical cost data, accounting for terminal events such as death, and right censoring due to loss of follow-up. Since the cost of cancer care and survival are correlated, a scientifically meaningful quantity for inference in this context is the mean cost trajectory conditional on survival. Many standard approaches for longitudinal and survival analysis are not valid for the problem. The research for my Ph.D. dissertation consists of three …

Factors Affecting Time To Recovery: A Covid-19 Survival Analysis, Fernanda Montoya

Honors Capstones

This project is focused on the recovery rates of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 after different clinical trial drug treatments. Data for the clinical trial studied was obtained from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for the primary purpose of a survival analysis on patient time to recovery under a placebo and therapeutic drug treatment. Specifically, patients in this clinical trial were randomly selected to receive remdesivir, an antiviral drug, in combination with a placebo or baricitinib, a janus kinase inhibitor drug. Cox PH models were used to identify how the different treatment drugs affect time to recovery and …

Flexible Modelling Of Time-Dependent Covariate Effects With Correlated Competing Risks: Application To Hereditary Breast And Ovarian Cancer Families, Seungwoo Lee

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis aims to develop a flexible approach for modelling time-dependent covariate effects on event risk using B-splines in the presence of correlated competing risks. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated via simulation in terms of the bias and precision of the estimation of the parameters and penetrance functions. In addition, we extended the concordance index to account for time-dependent effects and competing events simultaneously and demonstrated its inference procedures. We applied our proposed methods to data rising from the BRCA1 mutation families from the breast cancer family registry to evaluate the time-dependent effects of mammographic screening and …

Examining Failures Of Kc-135s Using Survival Analysis, Vanessa I. R. Unseth

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force manages an inventory of 396 KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft. With mission capability rates falling and total non-mission capability supply rates increasing, it is necessary to take a deeper look at recurrent failures. The study applies non-parametric and semi-parametric survival models to a dataset retrieved from LIMS-EV to look at the duration(s) until failure for the KC-135. Results of non-parametric models show cumulative failure rates increase as sorties or flight hours increase. In addition, semi-parametric models or Cox proportional hazards models with frailty confirm that locations or air bases are not associated with recurrent failures.

Predicting Tf33-Pw-100a Engine Failures Due To Oil Issues Using Survival Analyses, Anna M. Davis

Theses and Dissertations

In 2007, the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Sustainment pushed for the need to transition to a Condition Based Maintenance Plus (CBM ) initiative for weapon systems in the U.S. Department of Defense. The CBM initiative can help increase aircraft availability (AA) for the United States Air Force. There are many reasons where AA can be affected but one such issue is engine availability primarily due to oil issues. Within the CBM perspective, this study examines the risk of a jet engine failure due to an oil issue and attempts to predict an engines time until next …

Addressing Bias In Non-Experimental Studies Assessing Treatment Outcomes In Prostate Cancer, David E. Guy

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

We evaluated the ability of matching techniques to balance baseline characteristics between treatment groups using non-experimental data. We identified a set of balance diagnostics that assessed key differences in baseline covariates with potential for confounding. These diagnostics were used in a novel systematic approach to developing and evaluating models for use in propensity score matching that optimized balance and data retention. We then compared the performance of propensity score and coarsened exact matching strategies in optimizing balance and data retention, using non-experimental data from a pan-Canadian prostate cancer database. Both matching techniques balanced baseline covariates adequately and retained approximately 70% …

Extension Of The Two-Step Approach For Informative Dropout In Survival Analysis, Cristina Murray-Krezan

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in children is known to result in poor growth and quality of life, and frequently results in kidney failure. The Chronic Kidney Disease in Children study (CKiD) is a prospective cohort study enrolling children ages 1 to 16 to assess health outcomes in children with CKD including the effects of declining glomerular filtration rate and the resulting consequences of growth failure on morbidity. Quantification of the magnitude of the risk for decreased kidney function and, ultimately, failure has been achieved through a variety of studies, often including cohort studies such as the CKiD study. Longitudinal studies …

Asymptotic Results For Empirical Processes In Informative Model Of Random Censorship From Both Sides, Abdurakhim Abdushukurov, Dilshod Mansurov

Bulletin of National University of Uzbekistan: Mathematics and Natural Sciences

In the paper, the empirical process in informative model of random censorship from both sides is investigated. For it, the limit Gaussian process with mean zero is founded. Under investigating of empirical process, the characterization properties of the considered informative model is used. The properties of the semiparametric estimator by using methods of numerical modeling are discussed.

An Examination Of Civilian Retention In The United States Air Force, William F. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

The backbone of the United States Air Force is undoubtedly the large civilian workforce that supplements the great work that is accomplished. Many research studies have been conducted on officer and enlisted personnel to ensure that the career fields are properly developed and managed to meet the ever growing demands of the military's varied missions, but no recent studies have focused on the civilian workforce. Striking a balance between new and experienced employees is paramount to success given the ever-changing economic and political landscapes where we find ourselves. The first part of the research uses logistic regression to determine the …

An Examination Into Retention Behavior Of Air Force Female Officers, Jessica M. Astudillo

Theses and Dissertations

Female retention rates in the US military have been considerably lower than that of their male counterparts for numerous years. In the Air Force, women represent 14 percent of officer ranks from O-5 level and above. Comparatively, the overall rate of women officers in service is 20 percent. Understanding the negative factors associated with the attrition rate of this group can help the Air Force leverage positive change. It may also influence adjustments that will increase the number of women serving, and improve diversity throughout both the officer and enlisted ranks. In this study, logistic regression and survival analysis are …

Optimizing Critical Values And Combining Axes For Multi-Axial Neck Injury Criteria, Ethan J. Gaston

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force employs ejection seats in its high-performance aircraft. While these systems are intended to ensure aircrew safety, the ejection process subjects the aircrew to potentially injurious forces. System validation includes evaluation of forces against a standard which is linked to the probability of injury. The Muti-Axial Neck Injury Criteria (MANIC) was developed to account for forces in all six degrees of freedom. Unfortunately, the MANIC is applied to each of the three linear input directions separately and applies different criterion values for each direction. These three separate criteria create a lack of clarity regarding acceptable neck loading, leading …