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Articles 331 - 360 of 2833
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Hiv Estimation Using Population Based Surveys With Non-Response: A Partial Identification Approach, Oyelola A Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung, Siyu Li
Hiv Estimation Using Population Based Surveys With Non-Response: A Partial Identification Approach, Oyelola A Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung, Siyu Li
Research Collection School Of Economics
HIV estimation using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) is lim-ited by the presence of non-response and test refusals. Conventional adjustments such as imputation require the data to be missing at random. Methods that use instrumental variables allow the possibility that prevalence is different between the respondents and non-respondents, but their performance depends critically on the validity of the instru-ment. Using Manski’s partial identification approach, we form instrumental variable bounds for HIV prevalence from a pool of candidate instruments. Our method does not require all candidate instruments to be valid. We use a simulation study to evaluate and …
Truth By Consensus: A Theoretical And Empirical Investigation, Gabriele Camera, Rod Garratt, Cyril Monnet
Truth By Consensus: A Theoretical And Empirical Investigation, Gabriele Camera, Rod Garratt, Cyril Monnet
ESI Working Papers
Truthful reporting about publicly observed events cannot be guaranteed by a consensus process. This fact, which we establish theoretically and verify empirically, holds true even if some individuals are compelled to tell the truth, regardless of economic incentives. In an experiment, subjects routinely misreported a commonly known event when they could monetarily gain from it. Relying on majority consensus did not help uncover the truth, especially if complying with the majority granted small personal monetary gains. This highlights the difficulties in relying on shared consensus protocols to agree on specific events, and the importance of institutions with trusted, impartial observers.
Estimating The Stability Of Okun's Law, Xinrui (Crystal) Wang, Samuel Schreyer
Estimating The Stability Of Okun's Law, Xinrui (Crystal) Wang, Samuel Schreyer
SACAD: Scholarly Activities
This study focuses on employing the gap version of Okun's Law, conducting regression analysis between the output gap and the unemployment gap to assess their effectiveness and long-term stability, and also estimates the significant relationship between the output gap and the unemployment gap. This study also compares the output gap dynamics during economic contractions and expansions.
Does Dollarization Have An Impact On Economic Growth?, Jorge Robinson
Does Dollarization Have An Impact On Economic Growth?, Jorge Robinson
Research Day
Many developing and undeveloped countries, grappling with issues such as hyperinflation, corruption, high unemployment rates, poverty, and financial instability, often view dollarization as a potential solution. Dollarization involves adopting the US currency as the official or parallel currency, a strategy observed in countries like El Salvador, Ecuador, and Zimbabwe. The purpose of this research is to compare the impact of dollarization on real gross domestic product (RGDP) to that of countries that did not adopt dollarization. My results indicate that dollarization does indeed affect economic growth. These findings demonstrate that dollarized countries experience a higher percentage change in RGDP compared …
Ambiguity, Cognitive Reflection, And Strategic Complexity Across Auctions, Cary Deck, Paan Jindapon, Tigran Melkonyan, Mark Schneider
Ambiguity, Cognitive Reflection, And Strategic Complexity Across Auctions, Cary Deck, Paan Jindapon, Tigran Melkonyan, Mark Schneider
ESI Working Papers
This paper bridges large but separate literatures on decision-making under ambiguity, the dual system framework of behavioral economics, and market design. We characterize behavior under ambiguity arising from dual system preferences. Rational System 2 satisfies the subjective expected utility axioms while behavioral System 1 satisfies the obvious dominance axiom from mechanism design. Our axioms provide a novel foundation for the popular NEO-EU ambiguity model and allow for source dependent ambiguity perceptions. Our approach also provides an explanation as to how behavioral differences arise between obviously strategy-proof mechanisms (e.g. English auctions) and other mechanisms. Empirically, we find ambiguity perceptions are lower …
Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Yiren Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Yiren Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers a linear panel model with interactive fixed effects and unobserved individual and time heterogeneities that are captured by some latent group structures and an unknown structural break, respectively. To enhance realism, the model may have different numbers of groups and/or different group memberships before and after the break. With preliminary nuclear norm regularized estimation followed by row- and column-wise linear regressions, we estimate the break point based on the idea of binary segmentation and the latent group structures together with the number of groups before and after the break by sequential testing K-means algorithm simultaneously. It is …
Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren
Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren
Research Collection School Of Economics
Betas from return regressions are commonly used to measure systematic financial market risks. "Good" beta measurements are essential for a range of empirical inquiries in finance and macroeconomics. We introduce a novel econometric framework for the nonparametric estimation of time-varying betas with high-frequency data. The "local Gaussian" property of the generic continuous-time benchmark model enables optimal "finite-sample" inference in a well-defined sense. It also affords more reliable inference in empirically realistic settings compared to conventional large-sample approaches. Two applications pertaining to the tracking performance of leveraged ETFs and an intraday event study illustrate the practical usefulness of the new procedures.
Testing The Dimensionality Of Policy Shocks, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, Qiushi Zhang
Testing The Dimensionality Of Policy Shocks, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, Qiushi Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a nonparametric test for deciding the dimensionality of a policy shock as manifest in the abnormal change in asset returns' stochastic covariance matrix, following the release of a macroeconomic announcement. We use high-frequency data in local windows before and after the event to estimate the covariance jump matrix, and then test its rank. We find a one-factor structure in the covariance jump matrix of the yield curve resulting from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shocks prior to the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The dimensionality of policy shocks increased afterwards due to the use of unconventional monetary policy tools.
Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yuefei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips
Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yuefei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Considerable evidence in past research shows size distortion in standard tests for zero autocorrelation or zero cross-correlation when time series are not independent identically distributed random variables, pointing to the need for more robust procedures. Recent tests for serial correlation and cross-correlation in Dalla, Giraitis, and Phillips (2022) provide a more robust approach, allowing for heteroskedasticity and dependence in uncorrelated data under restrictions that require a smooth, slowly-evolving deterministic heteroskedasticity process. The present work removes those restrictions and validates the robust testing methodology for a wider class of innovations and regression residuals allowing for heteroscedastic uncorrelated and non-stationary data settings. …
High Frequency Principal Component Analysis Based On Correlation Matrix That Is Robust To Jumps, Microstructure Noise And Asynchronous Observation Times, Dachuan Chen
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper developed the high frequency estimation for the principal component analysis (PCA) based on correlation matrix. This estimation methodology is robust to jumps, microstructure noise and asynchronous observation times simultaneously, which is enabled by the newly proposed Truncated and Smoothed Two-Scales Realized Volatility (Truncated S-TSRV) estimator. The general framework of our methodology is constructed based on the estimation of realized spectral functions with respect to the spot correlation matrix. A new asymptotic representation for the element-wise estimation error of the spot correlation matrix estimate has been derived, resulting in a new bias correction term which is much more complex …
Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C B Phillips, Yichong Zhang
Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C B Phillips, Yichong Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). Standard multiplier bootstrap inference fails to capture the negative dependence of observations within each pair and is therefore conservative. Analytical inference involves estimating multiple functional quantities that require several tuning parameters. Instead, this paper proposes two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate the limit distribution of the original QTE estimator and lessen the burden of tuning parameter choice. Most especially, the inverse propensity score weighted multiplier bootstrap can be implemented without knowledge of pair identities.
Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh
Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
We reinvigorate nowcasting models considering structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It emphasizes the need to understand the heterogeneous impact of shocks on agriculture, industry, and services sectors in an emerging market economy (e.g., India). Our findings advocate a bottom-up approach that tracks sectors separately rather than a headline number. Our results suggest including digital-activity index and supply-side disruption index in the post-pandemic period could improve nowcast performance. Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is used to combine data series based on their availability. Among bridging methods, the averaging method is preferred due to its simplicity and flexibility.
Cognitive Abilities And Individual Earnings In Hybrid Continuous Double Auctions, Yan Peng, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, S. Sarah Zhang
Cognitive Abilities And Individual Earnings In Hybrid Continuous Double Auctions, Yan Peng, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, S. Sarah Zhang
ESI Working Papers
There is growing evidence that human cognitive abilities strongly influence individual trader financial performance. Much of this evidence has been established in experimental asset markets whose participants are exclusively human traders. However, algorithmic trading has reshaped financial markets, raising the issue of whether these assessments on the impact of cognititive abilities still hold in these settings, particularly in markets with low latency algorithmic traders. Extending previous findings in experimental asset markets, we examine how individual cognitive abilities—reaction time, trader intuition (Theory of Mind), and cognitive reflection—affect human earnings in induced demand and supply markets with and without algorithmic traders of …
Possible Role Of The One-Half Heuristic In Overconfidence Research, Vojtěch Zíka
Possible Role Of The One-Half Heuristic In Overconfidence Research, Vojtěch Zíka
ESI Working Papers
Overconfidence research often involves estimating performance within a fixed range. Recent studies suggest that overprecision is affected by central tendency bias, the tendency to estimate near the center of a perceived distribution. This paper examines whether a similar pattern influences the other two overconfidence types, overestimation and overplacement. In a laboratory experiment (N = 120), participants estimated their own and the average performance over five rounds of ten Rock–Paper–Scissors games. Each round earned for up to 40 points, but average performance varied across three treatments, with means of 16.6, 20, and 23.3 points. The main question was whether this manipulation …
Horizontal Economic Inequality And Mass Atrocity Risk: A Large-Sample Empirical Inquiry, Charles H. Anderton, Roxane A. Anderton
Horizontal Economic Inequality And Mass Atrocity Risk: A Large-Sample Empirical Inquiry, Charles H. Anderton, Roxane A. Anderton
Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal
Our research question is: Does inter-group horizontal economic inequality elevate state-perpetrated mass atrocity risk? Theoretical perspectives in genocide studies show how economic and other forms of discrimination against ethnic or religious groups can elevate the risk of government violence against them. Among the approximately five dozen large-sample empirical studies of mass atrocity risk, only a few consider the effects of economic discrimination. Moreover, no large-sample empirical studies, to the best of our knowledge, test hypotheses related to how inter-group horizontal economic inequalities (as distinct from vertical economic inequalities based on GINI coefficients or quantile income or wealth measures) affect mass …
How Does Passive Investing Effect The Informational Efficiency Of Prices?, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, Yan Peng, David Porter, Jason Shachat
How Does Passive Investing Effect The Informational Efficiency Of Prices?, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, Yan Peng, David Porter, Jason Shachat
ESI Working Papers
We investigate the causal effects of passive investing on informational efficiency and market quality metrics by developing a novel laboratory experiment that introduces Index trackers with exogenous passive investment flows. We find that, while improving liquidity, Index tracking hurts informational efficiency, confirming our main hypothesis. Furthermore, we observe violations of the law of one price, leading to widespread and persistent arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, our research uncovers that Active traders, particularly those with private information about asset values and high cognitive ability, reap benefits from the introduction of Index tracking.
Assessing The Recreational Charter Fishing Market In Florida: A Hedonic Price Analysis, Mehrnoosh Asadi, Pallab Mozumder, Mahadev G. Bhat
Assessing The Recreational Charter Fishing Market In Florida: A Hedonic Price Analysis, Mehrnoosh Asadi, Pallab Mozumder, Mahadev G. Bhat
Economics Faculty Publications
In this study we analyze the effect of a wide range of factors on the variation of recreational fishing trip prices in Florida. We collected extensive data from recreational fishing websites maintained by guides and outfitters and used different empirical methods for quantifying the relationship between trip price and various trip characteristics. The Hedonic Price model was used to estimate the implicit prices of freshwater and saltwater fishing trip characteristics. The results suggest that freshwater and saltwater anglers significantly value the lodging feature included in the fishing trip package. Moreover, saltwater anglers had a higher willingness to pay to catch …
Essays In Macroeconomics And Finance, Archil Dvalishvili
Essays In Macroeconomics And Finance, Archil Dvalishvili
Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects
Chapter 1: (A Quantitative Analysis of Interest on Reserves and Reserve Requirements) - I construct a medium scale DSGE model with financial frictions both on the demand (entrepreneurs) and supply (banks) sides of credit to study the costs and benefits of fixed/time-varying minimum reserve requirements and interest paid by the Fed on reserves.The results can be summarized as follows: (1) An optimal time-varying minimum reserve requirement generates substantial welfare gain when compared with a fixed minimum reserve requirement when no interest is paid on reserves. (2) Paying interest on reserves is substantially welfare inferior to a policy with no interest …
Representation And Bracketing In Repeated Games, Mouli Modak
Representation And Bracketing In Repeated Games, Mouli Modak
ESI Working Papers
In this experimental paper, the author investigates the framing effect of different representations of multiple strategic settings or games on a player’s strategic behavior. Two representations of the same environment are employed, wherein a player engages in two infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games. In the first representation (termed Split), the stage games are shown separately. In contrast, the second representation (termed Linked) displays a combined stage game. The choice bracketing, distinguishing between Narrow and Broad bracketing, is considered a potential cause behind any disparity in behavior between the two representations. The Split representation does not necessitate broad bracketing, whereas the …
How Personalized Networks Can Limit Free Riding: A Multi-Group Version Of The Public Goods Game, Aaron S. Berman, Laurence R. Iannaccone, Mouli Modak
How Personalized Networks Can Limit Free Riding: A Multi-Group Version Of The Public Goods Game, Aaron S. Berman, Laurence R. Iannaccone, Mouli Modak
ESI Working Papers
People belong to many different groups, and few belong to the same network of groups. Moreover, people routinely reduce their involvement in dysfunctional groups while increasing involvement in those they find more attractive. The net effect can be an increase in overall cooperation and the partial isolation of free-riders, even if free-riders are never punished, excluded, or recognized. We formalize and test this conjecture with an agent-based social simulation and a multi-good extension of the standard repeated public goods game. Our initial results from three treatments suggest that the multi-group setting indeed raises overall cooperation and dampens the impact of …
Personal Lies, Gary Charness, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara
Personal Lies, Gary Charness, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara
ESI Working Papers
Using the mind game, we provide experimental evidence that people are more likely to lie when they disclose non-personal information (e.g., reporting a number they thought of) compared with personal information (e.g., reporting the last digit of their birth year). Our findings suggest that the type of information is an important factor for lying behavior.
Experimental Research On Contests, Subhashish M. Chowdhury, Dan Kovenock, Anwesha Mukherjee
Experimental Research On Contests, Subhashish M. Chowdhury, Dan Kovenock, Anwesha Mukherjee
ESI Working Papers
Contests are situations in which agents compete by irreversibly expending costly resources in an attempt to win a prize. Due to their applications in conflict, rent-seeking, organizational incentives, sports, litigation, and political campaigns, contests are widely applied in the social sciences. In this survey we summarize some main results and recent developments of experimental studies in contest theory. We also point out their broader applications in the social sciences.
Horse Owner Preferences For Equine Veterinary Services, Olivia Gibson
Horse Owner Preferences For Equine Veterinary Services, Olivia Gibson
Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics
The decline in the number of equine veterinarians creates significant challenges for the future of equine veterinary medicine. One crucial aspect of this issue is how the financial health of equine veterinary practices might be improved. Examining how horse owners respond to changes in the prices of veterinary services allows practices to determine whether adjusting prices can improve practices’ financial standing. Using an online stated preference survey completed by 4,992 horse owners in the U.S., this study investigates horse owner preferences for equine veterinary services. First, horse owners’ utilization of equine veterinary services and willingness to adapt to the changes …
Differential Impacts Of Weather Anomalies On Household Energy Expenditure Shares: A Comparison Of Clustered Panel Analysis Methods, Jordan Champion
Differential Impacts Of Weather Anomalies On Household Energy Expenditure Shares: A Comparison Of Clustered Panel Analysis Methods, Jordan Champion
Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics
Recent emphasis on environmental justice has highlighted deficiencies in our energy system that produce disparities in accessibility and affordability for the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, the realities of a gradually warming climate and the onset of a global energy crisis (IEA 2022) have coincidently contributed to spikes in both energy prices and demand. These implications threaten to further exacerbate existing disparities for income-constrained and vulnerable populations, enhancing their risk of falling into prolonged insecurity. To ensure our transition to a just, sustainable future, we must first ensure equitable access to affordable and reliable energy for everyone. Combining household-level panel and state-level …
Parents, Paths, And Paychecks: Examining Intergenerational Occupational Mobility And Career Choices, Swapnil Landge
Parents, Paths, And Paychecks: Examining Intergenerational Occupational Mobility And Career Choices, Swapnil Landge
Publications and Research
This paper examines the influence of fathers’ and mothers’ occupations on their children’s occupational outcomes, using a self-selection model to analyze intergenerational career mobility. By constructing and analyzing transition matrices, I estimate the extent of positive and negative self-selection for sons and daughters when they follow either their father’s or mother’s occupation. The results reveal distinct patterns for sons and daughters. Sons who follow their father’s occupation tend to avoid negative self-selection, particularly in higher-paying fields such as Professional Occupations and Technicians and Related Support Occupations, where negative self-selection is minimal. Conversely, sons following their mother’s occupation face higher rates …
Performance And Policy Indexes In Carbon Pricing Efficacy: A Cross-Country Analysis Of Policy Impact (2012-2020), Ke (Zoky) Zhou
Performance And Policy Indexes In Carbon Pricing Efficacy: A Cross-Country Analysis Of Policy Impact (2012-2020), Ke (Zoky) Zhou
Honors Theses
Climate change poses a significant threat to global ecosystems and human societies, driven largely by CO2 emissions from various economic activities. This macroeconomic cross-country study empirically assesses the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing CO2 emissions across three periods: 2012-2017, 2015-2019, and 2015-2020. Building on the foundational research by Best et al. (2020), the analysis extends to more recent data, capturing the evolving impacts of carbon pricing amid changing global economic and policy landscapes. A key advancement in this research is the creation and integration of two comprehensive indexes—a performance index and a policy index—constructed from 14 environmental performance or …
Green Bonds, Green Returns: The Impact Of Green Bond Issuances On Financial Performance In The U.S. Energy Sector, Adora Lei
Honors Theses
This paper investigates the impact of green bond issuances on the financial performance of U.S. energy firms, the largest greenhouse gas-emitting sector. To explore the incentives for adopting green projects among firms with the most significant margin for improvement, I focus on Gross Profit Margin (GPM) and the Tobin’s Q Ratio as key indicators of profitability and valuation. Using a dataset of 462 companies, I analyze green and conventional corporate bond issuances from 2010 onwards in the context of their financial reports. The findings reveal that green bonds positively influence long-term valuation, with Tobin’s Q showing significant increases from the …
Write Things Right: How To Communicate Most Effectively About Climate Change, Lara Beckius
Write Things Right: How To Communicate Most Effectively About Climate Change, Lara Beckius
Economics Honors Papers
As the climate change crisis worsens, it is more important than ever that communicators understand the role that specific messaging plays in the formation of public opinion and the overall strength of the call for action. This study seeks to determine the most effective methods of communicating climate change-induced environmental issues to the general public to raise awareness of the issue and encourage solution-focused behavioral change. A review of current climate change communication techniques reveals that it is up to communicators to understand the limitations of their chosen media and the most effective tactics for communicating the complex issue with …
Effects Of The Homegrown Player Rule In The English Premier League: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Squad Composition, Market Values, And Wages, Jiho "Brian" Jun
Effects Of The Homegrown Player Rule In The English Premier League: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Squad Composition, Market Values, And Wages, Jiho "Brian" Jun
Pitzer Senior Theses
This paper uses theoretical frameworks from economics and sports management to investigate the transformative effects of the Homegrown Player Rule on English Premier League squad dynamics, market valuations, and wage structures. The study examines the evolution of homegrown player distribution across clubs from the rule’s implementation in 2010 to the most recent season in 2023. My analysis of market values and wages finds no evidence that the rule leads to possible market value and wage rate disparities between homegrown and non-homegrown players. Subsequent research shows evidence of a decrease in the real wage rate of homegrown players over time, contrasting …
Industrial Hemp Production And Potential Risks In Kentucky, Hoyeon Jeong
Industrial Hemp Production And Potential Risks In Kentucky, Hoyeon Jeong
Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics
Since the Agricultural Improvement Act of 2014 and 2018 legalized Industrial Hemp (Cannabis Sativa. L), interest in grain, fiber, and floral hemp production has seen growing pains. As an emerging crop, there is a research gap in the impact of weather and agronomic conditions on hemp production including THC (Delta 9 Tetrahydrocannabinol) and pollen drift as risks in hemp cultivation. The first essay aims to measure the impact of weather and agronomic factors on hemp grain, fiber, and floral yields in Kentucky using a yield-weather model with information on field locations. The results show that heat conditions during the growing …