Econometrics Commons^™

Crop Yield Shocks And Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa: Subnational Evidence From Satellite-Based Yield Predictions, Benson I. Adomako

Master's Theses

This paper examines whether crop yields affect violent conflict at the subnational level across seven Sub-Saharan African countries: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania, over the period 2010 to 2024. A central identification challenge is that observed yields are endogenous to conflict: armed violence disrupts planting, cultivation, and harvest. To address this, I train a machine learning model on observed maize yield and satellite and environmental features to generate predicted yields for 1,338 second-level administrative districts annually. These predictions serve as the key regressor in a two-way fixed-effects panel with district and year fixed effects. I find …

Spatial Analysis Of Maize Yields And Household Dietary Diversity In Sub-Saharan Africa: Causal Evidence From A Machine Learning Instrument, Addi Joof

Master's Theses

MAIZE YIELDS AND HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: EVIDENCE ON THE CAUSAL EFFECT FROM A MACHINE LEARNING INSTRUMENT

Addi Joof, University of San Francisco, May 2026

This paper provides estimates of the effect of maize yield on household dietary diversity across seven Sub-Saharan African countries, using data from 36,474 maize-growing households in the Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) panels for the period 2008--2021. OLS estimates which include district and country-by-wave fixed effects yield a positive and significant coefficient of 0.070 (SE = 0.006, p < 0.001), implying that a 10 percent increase in maize yield raises the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) by approximately 0.007 food groups. Because self-reported yields are subject to classical measurement error and unobserved household characteristics confound the OLS estimate, we construct an instrumental variable using a Random Forest model trained on satellite-derived agro-environmental features including the Enhanced Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Growing Degree Days, precipitation, and soil moisture obtained from Google Earth Engine at the GPS-coordinate-by-year level. Our preferred 2SLS specification, which adds region fixed effects to absorb persistent sub-national geographic variation, returns a positive point estimate of 0.217 (SE = 0.206; 95% CI: -0.19 to +0.63, p = 0.294) larger than OLS and consistent with downward attenuation bias, but imprecisely estimated and statistically indistinguishable from zero at conventional levels. We interpret the OLS estimate of 0.070 as a credible lower bound on the true effect, with the IV evidence pointing to a moderately larger but uncertain magnitude. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a declining gradient across consumption quintiles the effect is strongest among the poorest households (Q1: 0.055, p < 0.01) and diminishes with wealth (Q5: 0.015, not significant) while showing no gradient across market-integration levels. These patterns are consistent with own-consumption, rather than market income from surplus sales, as the primary pathway from yield to dietary diversity. OLS estimates are positive and significant in five of six estimable countries. The findings suggest that maize yield improvements can serve as a nutrition co-investment, particularly for subsistence-oriented smallholders, though the available data do not permit a sharp causal quantification of the effect size.

Keywords: dietary diversity, maize yields, instrumental variables, Sub-Saharan Africa, LSMS-ISA, satellite …

Fueling Reactions: Three Empirical Essays On Behavioral Responses, Economic Shocks, And Energy Markets, Euclides Coelho De Medeiros Correia

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines how shocks in energy and commodity markets propagate through local economies and reshape human behavior, spanning three empirical essays that connect energy markets to electoral behavior, commodity price dynamics, and criminal violence.

Boundaries Of Inequality: The Political Economy Of Redlining And Modern Mortgage Credit, Kyle Guo

Harvey M. Applebaum ’59 Award

This paper investigates the legacy of historical redlining on contemporary access to mortgage credit across three distinct urban policy environments: Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Manhattan. I find that while historical redlining is associated with a statistically significant negative effect on mortgage approval rates, the magnitude of this direct effect is relatively small. In comparison, applicant race, particularly for Black applicants, is a stronger predictor of mortgage approval rates across cities and models. This study utilizes 1930s Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) residential security maps and Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data from 2007 to 2017, and uses ordinary least squares (OLS) …

Centralization Vs. Decentralization: First Evidence From The Laboratory, Gabriele Camera, Gary Charness, Nir Chemaya

ESI Working Papers

The future architecture of financial systems is a subject of contention, with centralized and decentralized governance proponents. Here we ask: would the architecture affect the quality of decision-making? We propose a game where financial network participants demarcate the ownership of claims to income. This governance task can be decentralized (shared authority), centralized (single authority), or hybrid (alternating authority). Without communication all architectures supported poor outcomes. With communication, decentralization ensured good governance and maximum profits, while centralization did not—lowering communication’s potency in promoting socially optimal decisions. This indicates there is scope for decentralization in innovating financial institutions.

Empirical Results From The Eliminations Of Municipal Minimum Parking Requirements, David A. Griffith

Honors Theses

Minimum Parking Requirements (MPR) are municipal zoning ordinances mandating a set number of off-street parking spaces for new developments. Since the 1950s, MPR has been the near-universal way American municipalities supply parking, though growing criticisms since the late 1990s have targeted the policy for distorting development patterns, imposing high costs, and subsidizing personal vehicle use. Beginning in the early 2010s and increasingly in the early 2020s, cities and counties across the United States have moved to reform or eliminate MPR. This paper is the first empirical study of the economic effects of these removals. Using a two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences OLS …

When Wedding Bells Stop Ringing: An Economic Analysis Of The U.S. Fertility Crisis, Mia Sideris

Business and Economics Honors Papers

Fertility in the U.S. has been in steady decline since the Great Recession. Surveyed opinions suggest this trend stems less from changing attitudes in ideal family size, and more from tangible barriers preventing people from having as many children as they desire. This paper explores several economic and social pressures that may have contributed to this discrepancy, with an emphasis on marriage. Marriage is considered to be the infrastructure that enables childbearing by minimizing both monetary and time costs. Using fixed effects and random forest regression, we estimate the impact of these measures and their relative importance on fertility decisions. …

The Impatience Of Winning: An Analysis Of Time Discounting, Predictive Modeling, And The Nba Draft, Alec R. Plante

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This paper examines whether NBA draft decisions can be better explained by incorporating non-geometric time discounting into a model of general manager decision making. Using a dataset of 285 NBA draft prospects over a 12-year period, the impact of college statistics on Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is determined, and these impact values are then used to create a “predicted” VORP for the first 4 seasons of each player’s career: a projection of what a general manager might think of a prospect’s future value given their college statistics. Following this, geometric and hyperbolic time discounting models are applied to estimate …

Manipulation Or Monetization?: The Rise Of Stock Buybacks And Their Effects On Firm Valuation And Investment, Thomas H. Serrano

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Abstract:

This thesis uses basic econometrics to examine the relationship between stock buybacks, firm valuation, and investment among publicly traded firms from 2000-2024. Using firm-level data pulled from Compustat North America and a fixed-effect multivariate regression, it evaluates whether buybacks are associated with higher valuation and stronger productive investment as defined in the paper. The results show that buybacks are positively associated with firm valuation the first year that they occur, but the relationship disappears when they are lagged for a year. Furthermore, the analysis does not find strong statistical evidence that repurchases are associated with changes in investment, or …

The Effects Of Private Equity Ownership Of Acute Care Hospitals On Patient Experience, Abigail M. Huffman

Theses and Dissertations

In 10 years, private-equity firms' share of hospitals has grown from 2-3% to 8%.  Using data from two sources: the Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) patient surveys and the Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP), I demonstrate a causal effect of private-equity ownership on patient satisfaction using difference-in-difference methods.

The Effect Of Prenatal Substance Use Policies On Women's Well-Being, Zukruf Alam

Theses and Dissertations

This paper examines the effects of punitive and priority treatment policies relating to the use of illicit substances during pregnancy on women's health and health-related behavior. Punitive interventions criminalize substance use during pregnancy, which can even lead to termination of parental rights. In contrast, priority treatment policies support pregnant women and grant them priority access to substance use disorder treatment programs. I use staggered difference-in-differences methods and data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data from 2004 to 2018 to estimate the impact of prenatal substance use policies on women's mental health, physical health, self-reported poor health, and cigarette …

Air Pollution And Self-Reported Health Outcomes In The United States, Alina Dervisevic

Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the relationship between short-term PM2.5 exposure and self-reported health outcomes among U.S. adults using BRFSS data from 2000 to 2012 linked to county-level pollution and weather data. Results show that PM2.5 exposure is associated with worse mental health and gender specific behavioral responses.

Essays On High-Frequency Dynamics Of Asset Prices, Yuhong Zhu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies econometric inference for high-frequency financial data, with a focus on detecting nonstandard drift and volatility dynamics in continuous-time models.

The first chapter proposes a new framework for uniform inference on explosive drift in high-frequency data, where conventional Gaussian approximations can fail due to the non-Gaussian behavior of short-window spot statistics. Under fixed-window asymptotics, these statistics are coupled with dependent t variables, and their maximum converges to a Fréchet distribution. We establish an anti-clustering condition for dependent t-statistics under overlapping windows and develop a feasible coupling-based test. Simulation results demonstrate better size control, and the empirical findings suggest …

Improving Estimation Efficiency Via Regression-Adjustment In Covariate-Adaptive Randomizations With Imperfect Compliance, Liang Jiang, Oliver B. Linton, Haihan Tang, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study how to improve efficiency via regression adjustments with additional covariates under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) when subject compliance is imperfect. We first establish the semiparametric efficiency bound for the local average treatment effect (LATE) under CARs. Second, we develop a general regression-adjusted LATE estimator which allows for parametric, nonparametric, and regularized adjustments. Even when the adjustments are misspecified, our proposed estimator is still consistent and asymptotically normal, and their inference method still achieves the exact asymptotic size under the null. When the adjustments are correctly specified, our estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. Third, we derive the optimal linear …

From The Ground To The Stars: How Research And Development In Aerospace Plays A Massive Role, Bryan Sohan

Honors College Theses

Aerospace technology is a long-standing field of innovation, yet it has experienced renewed momentum in recent years due to increased public and private investment. This study analyzes how changes in budget allocations to aerospace-related firms and government organizations influence the pace and scope of technological development within the aerospace sector. By examining historical trends in aerospace innovation alongside recent funding initiatives and policy decisions, this research evaluates the relationship between financial investment and technological advancement. This analysis focuses on Hypothesis 1 (H1): that higher aerospace R&D expenditure is positively correlated with innovation output. Using a two-period state-level panel (FY2021 and …

Money And State Politics: State Legislature Partisan Dynamics And Ideology Outcomes Following Citizens United V. Fec, Jillian E. Pastore

Bates College Journal of Political Studies

What effect has Citizens United v. FEC had on state-level partisanship and the policy outcomes that follow from it? Scholarship on the influence of corporate and union spending in political campaigns has largely centered on federal elections. In this paper, I extend the analysis to the state level, leveraging the fact that Citizens United created a natural experiment across the states. Prior to the Supreme Court ruling, roughly half of the states prohibited corporate and union independent expenditures in state elections (including for governor, state senate, state house, and state supreme court races). The Citizens United decision effectively nullified these …

Supporting Those Who Serve: The Impact Of Peer Support On Law Enforcement Suicide, Emily N. Warren

Honors College Theses

Individuals working in law enforcement face daily stressors that far exceed those experienced by the general population. This elevated exposure to stress has been associated with increased rates of mental health disorders and suicide among law enforcement officers. In response, peer support programs have gained recent attention, with new state and federal legislation promoting peer support as a strategy to address the mental health crisis within law enforcement. This paper examines the impact of statewide peer support programs on law enforcement suicide rates through statistical analysis. A difference-in-differences analysis is used to compare state-level law enforcement suicide rates before and …

Quantifying Overconsumption In The United States: A Multiple Linear Regression Analysis, Morgan Davis

Honors Projects

This study examines overconsumption in the United States by analyzing how socioeconomic factors influence household spending relative to income. Overconsumption is defined as elevated discretionary spending relative to income, with a focus on categories such as apparel, entertainment, and food away from home. Using 2024 Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) data, three multiple linear regression models were created to evaluate predictors of overall consumption, discretionary consumption, and apparel spending as proportions of income.

Results show that income is the most significant predictor across all models, with higher-income households consistently spending a smaller share of their income. Age and household size also …

Fixed Effects Estimation Of Spatial Panel Model With Missing Responses: An Application To Us State Tax Competition, Xiaoyu Meng, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider estimation and inferences for general spatial panel data models with randomly missing observations on responses. It allows for unobserved spatiotemporal heterogeneity, time-varying endogenous and contextual spatial interactions, time-varying cross-sectional error dependence, and serial correlation. A general M-estimation method is proposed for model estimation and a novel corrected plug-in method is proposed for model inference. Both take into account the estimation of fixed effects. Asymptotic properties of the proposed methods are studied, and finite sample properties are investigated. An empirical application is given using U.S. state tax competition data. The proposed methods apply to matrix exponential spatial specification and …

Genuinely Unbalanced Spatial Panel Data Models: Fixed Effects M-Estimation And Inference, Xiaoyu Meng, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider spatial panel data models with genuine unbalancedness arising from the non-presence of some spatial units in certain time periods. General M-estimation methods are proposed for model estimation, which take into account the estimation of the incidental fixed effects parameters and allow for spatiotemporal heteroskedasticity and high-order time-varying spatial effects. Corrected plug-in methods are proposed for standard error estimation. The proposed estimation and inference methods are rigorously studied for their asymptotic properties and finite sample performance. An application to China’s provincial FDI inflows shows that properly accounting for genuine unbalancedness uncovers significant positive spatial spillovers that are masked when …

Protection Vs. Progression: A Macroeconomic Approach To Military Expenditure Direct Effects On Social Outcomes Using Ihdi Measures, Connor Graham

Global Tides

This study examines whether military expenditure reduces inequality-adjusted human development and how national governance quality moderates these effects. Using panel data covering 121 countries from 2010-2023, two-way fixed effects models are employed to estimate the relationship between military spending and the Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). Three key findings emerge from the analysis based on the resulting data. First, a one percentage point increase in military spending reduces IHDI by 0.0012-0.0015 points. Second, the effects prove seven times larger in developed countries than in developing ones, which runs contrary to expectations and prior literature. Lastly, political stability emerged as a …

Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul

Center for Policy Research

This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the …

Time Invariant Variables In The Mundlak And Hausman-Taylor Panel Data Models, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper shows that the classic augmented Mundlak (1978) regression yields the between estimator for time-invariant variables. It is well known that the estimates of the time varying variables yield the fixed effects estimates. While the latter are consistent for this correlated random effects model, the between estimates are not. The between estimator is consistent only when the Hausman (1978) test does not reject the null based on between versus fixed effects. An alternative modified Hausman and Taylor (1981) estimator is proposed. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to compare various estimators under a correlated random effects as well as a …

Two Special Spatial Weight Matrices And Their Effects On Estimation And Testing In Spatial Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper collects in one place some of the consequences of using two special spatial weight matrices in the spatial econometrics literature. The two weight matrices considered are the equal weight spatial matrix and the complete bipartite network. In particular, we summarize the effects of these special weight matrices on the statistical properties of commonly used spatial estimators as well as commonly used tests for spatial dependence.

On The Origins Of Modern East Asia: Knowledge And The Economic Transformation Of Japan And China In The Late 19th Century, Debin Ma, Jared Rubin, Weiwen Yin

ESI Working Papers

This paper revisits the old thesis of the contrasting paths of modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of knowledge acquisition (propositional vs. prescriptive) and political centralization as the key drivers behind these contrasting paths. Our model and historical data highlight how the introduction of these elements contributed to Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West and Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative and quantitative data, sheds new light on the importance of knowledge acquisition in enabling developing countries to reach the world’s …

High Dimensional Regression Coefficient Test With High Frequency Data, Dachuan Chen, Long Feng, Per A. Myklang, Lan Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper presents the first study on high-dimensional regression coefficient tests with high-frequency financial data. These tests allow the number of regressors to be larger than the number of observations within each estimation block and can grow to infinity in asymptotics. In this paper, the sum-type test and max-type test have been proposed, where the former is suitable for the dense alternative (many small betas) and the latter is suitable for the sparse alternative (a very small number of large betas). By showing the asymptotic independence between the sum-type test and max-type test, the paper proposes a third test – …

Bespoke Realized Volatility: Tailored Measures Of Risk For Volatility Prediction, Andrew John Patton, Haozhe Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Standard realized volatility (RV) measures estimate the latent volatility of an asset price using high frequency data with no reference to how or where the estimate will subsequently be used. This paper presents methods for “tailoring” the estimate of volatility to the application in which it will be used. For example, if the volatility measure will be used in a specific parametric forecasting model, it may be possible to exploit that knowledge to construct a better measure of volatility. We use methods from machine learning to estimate optimal “bespoke” RVs for heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) and GARCH-X forecasting applications. We apply …

National Income And Marxian Categories, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). National income accounts and Marxian categories [Unpublished manuscript].

Math Appendix, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Mathematical appendix outlining use-value, value, direct prices, prices of production, and the iteration procedure [Unpublished manuscript]. Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

Behavioural And Socioeconomic Drivers Underlying Solar Adoption In Egypt’S Cairo And Giza: A Micro-Level Perspective, Maha Elhini, Hoda Hassaballa, Rasha Hammam

Economics

Although Egypt falls within the solar belt, solar energy use on the household level remains very sparse. This research examines the factors driving and hindering households’ willingness to shift from fossil fuels to solar energy. The study evaluates the socioeconomic determinants of households’ willingness to adopt photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, based on a random distribution of 301 questionnaires in Cairo and Giza – two of Egypt’s most densely populated governorates. Two models were used─ a Logistic Model and a Structural Equations Model (SEM) that regresses the willingness to install PV panels on household characteristics. For a deeper analysis of how …