Econometrics Commons^™

Apr Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Folder cover labeled “APF paper, EEA March 15–17, 2002 Boston: non linear dynamics and the pseudo-production function notes, workfiles, EViews programs.” (2002, March 15–17). Unpublished folder cover [File folder].

• McCombie, J. (2002, March 25). Email to Anwar Shaikh regarding a conference and a possible publication. Unpublished email correspondence.

• Handwritten notes titled “perfect fitting aggregate prod. functions.” (2002, March 16). Unpublished handwritten notes [Manuscript]. (A. Shaikh, PhD, author).

• Handwritten notes titled “an approximation problem.” (2002, March 21). Unpublished handwritten notes [Manuscript]. (A. Shaikh, PhD, author).

• Handwritten notes reflecting on McCombie and Fisher’s views …

Forecasting Volatility In The New Zealand Stock Market, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study evaluates the performance of nine alternative models for predicting stock price volatility using daily New Zealand data. The competing models contain both simple models such as the random walk and smoothing models and complex models such as ARCH-type models and a stochastic volatility model. Four different measures are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The main results are the following: (1) the stochastic volatility model provides the best performance among all the candidates; (2) ARCH-type models can perform well or badly depending on the form chosen: the performance of the GARCH(3,2) model, the best model within the ARCH …

Clinical Significance Of Molecular Expression Profiles Of Hürthle Cell Tumors Of The Thyroid Gland Analyzed Via Tissue Microarrays, A. Hoos, A. Stojadinovic, B. Singh, M. Dudas, Denis H. Y. Leung, A. Shaha

Research Collection School Of Economics

Hürthle cell tumors are rare thyroid neoplasms for which disease biology is poorly understood and diagnosis of carcinoma can be challenging. The aim of the study was to characterize molecular expression profiles of Hürthle cell tumors and to determine the clinical significance of identified phenotypes. Paraffin-embedded tissue cores of normal thyroid (n = 18), and histopathologically well-defined Hürthle cell adenomas (n = 27), Hürthle cell tumors of unknown malignant behavior (n = 7), and minimally (n = 14) and widely (n = 21) invasive Hürthle cell carcinomas were arrayed in triplicate on tissue microarrays. Expression profiles of p53, mdm-2, p21, …

Monitoring Process Variability With Symmetric Control Limits, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Control charts for monitoring process variability, such as the R-chart and S-chart, do not have symmetric probability limits as the distribution of the sample variability is not normal. Hence, the usual zone rules can not be applied although it is still desirable to be able to use the information from more than one point in decision making. In this paper, a modified S-chart based on an optimal normalizing transformation of the sample variance is first introduced. The new chart is shown to have approximate symmetric probability limits and hence can be interpreted in the same way as that of a …

Empirical Characteristic Function In Time Series Estimation, J. Knight, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Policymakers seeking to design efficient and smoothly functioning pension systems for their aging workforces are beginning to acknowledge the key importance of administrative expenses when formulating rules for pension plan structure and fee disclosure requirements. This study explores the links between retirement plan offerings and pension expenses for a wide range of private and public sector pension plan types, using an invaluable new data set on two thousand Australian pension funds. Our analysis indicates how pension plan design can strongly influence plan expenses and consequently eventual retirement security.

A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model With Time-Varying Correlations, Yiu Kuen Tse, Albert K.C. Tsui

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this article we propose a new multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model with time-varying correlations. We adopt the vech representation based on the conditional variances and the conditional correlations. Whereas each conditional-variance term is assumed to follow a univariate GARCH formulation, the conditional-correlation matrix is postulated to follow an autoregressive moving average type of analog. Our new model retains the intuition and interpretation of the univariate GARCH model and yet satisfies the positive-definite condition as found in the constant-correlation and Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner models We report some Monte Carlo results on the finite-sample distributions of the maximum likelihood estimate of …

Neyman's Smooth Test And Its Applications In Econometrics, Anil K. Bera, Aurobindo Ghosh

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

A Small-Sample Overlapping Variance-Ratio Test, Yiu Kuen Tse, K. W. Ng, Xibin Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The null distribution of the overlapping variance-ratio (OVR) test of the random-walk hypothesis is known to be downward biased and skewed to the right in small samples. As shown by Lo and MacKinlay (1989), the test under-rejects the null on the left tail seriously when the sample size is small. This unfortunate property adversely affects the applicability of the OVR test to macroeconomic time series, which usually have rather small samples. In this paper we propose a modified overlapping variance-ratio statistic and derive its exact mean under the normality assumption. We propose to approximate the small-sample distribution of the modified …

The Relationship Between Stock Returns And Inflation In Malaysia, Soke Ling Mau

Student Works (2000-2009)

This study starts out with an introductory chapter covering the relationship between nominal and real stock returns with inflation in a general view. Economists are still puzzled on the positive and negative relationship between stock returns and inflation as many empirical results suggest varied conclusions. The second chapter is the literature review, which consists of a few well-known authors with their own theories and hypotheses. The core 3 discussion in this chapter refers to the classical view on stock returns and inflation in 1930 and post -Keynesian view on stock returns and inflation from 1970 till 2001. Chapter Three focuses …

Granger-Causality Between Monetary Aggregates And Sectoral Production In Malaysia, Kay Choy Wan

Student Works (2000-2009)

The main purpose of this study is to empirically assess the distributional impact of financial variables using Malaysian quarterly data. The rationale for pursuing this objective is to identify the possible transmission channels of the financial variables with respect to the sectoral production and its underlying causal. The study employing the methodology of Azali and Habibullah (2000) in using the MWALD test for testing Granger non-causality (Toda Yamamoto, 199 5) was constructed using Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR). The Augmented Dickey­Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) unit root test procedures Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration test and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) …

The Relationship Between Selected Economic Indicators And The Malaysian Stock Index Futures, Irwaan Iskandar Abrahim

Student Works (2000-2009)

This research examines the relationship between selected economics indicators and Malaysian Stock Index Futures. It also focusses on the relevancy of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in a developing derivatives market in South East Asia, namely the Malaysian Stock Index Futures market. The relationship analysis between selected economic indicators and Malaysian Stock Index Futures may give better understanding the degree our derivatives market grasp economics factors in determining market change and movements. In an efficient market, the relevant signal to be used in trading is the futures price. The relative forecasting power of futures price is applied with the various …

The Impact Of Bond Ratings On Equity Market : Malaysian Experience, P. Raman Ponnusamy

Student Works (2000-2009)

This research will examine the impact of bond ratings on market efficiency and stock returns. The study covered rating announcements from 1996 to 2001. Four types of rating announcements were covered namely initial announcement, reaffirmation, upgrades and downgrades. Each rating is categorized into investment grade and speculative grade. The mean adjusted model was used to determine the abnormal returns. The findings showed insignificant movement in abnormal returns for all type of ratings and also the sub-category of speculative and investment grades. The result also revealed that the market is efficient in semi-strong form as far as Malaysian market is concerned. …

Does The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold For Malaysia?, Beebee Rosida Nohur

Student Works (2000-2009)

This paper examines the export-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia over the last 30 years using current techniques in econometric analysis of non-stationary time series. In order to avoid model misspecification, this study employs a multivariate framework. The basic objective of this study is to provide further empirical evidence on the merits of export-oriented strategies. The principal results emerging from our research are: Firstly, all the data series exhibit an autoregressive scheme of order one, that is they are I( 1) series and that exports, investment to output ratio, terms of trade and GDP in real terms are cointegrated. This implies …

Prognostic Impact Of P53 Status, Tls-Chop Fusion Transcript Structure, And Histological Grade In Myxoid Liposarcoma: A Molecular And Clinicopathologic Study Of 82 Cases, C. R. Antonescu, S. J. Tschernyavsky, R. Decuseara, Denis H. Y. Leung, J. M. Woodruff, M. F. Brennan, J. A. Bridge, J. R. Neff, J. R. Goldblum, M. Ladanyi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Purpose: A specific TLS-CHOP fusion gene resulting from the t(12;16) is present in at least 95% of myxoid liposarcomas (MLS). Three common forms of the TLS-CHOP fusion have been described, differing by the presence or absence of TLS exons 6-8 in the fusion product. Type 5-2 (also known as type II) consists of TLS exons 1-5 fused to CHOP exon 2; type 7-2 (also known as type I) also includes TLS exons 6 and 7 in the fusion, whereas type 8-2 (also known as type III) fuses TLS exons 1-8 to CHOP exon 2. We sought to determine the impact …

How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.

Women Involvement In Food Crop Production, Processing And Marketing In Nigeria, Abiola O., Omoabugan O. B.

Bullion

The paper examines the extent of involvement of women in food crop production, processing and marketing in a typical African locality. Appropriate statistical techniques were employed in the data analyses. The findings show that women are greatly involved in the production, processing and marketing of food crops, especially cassava, which is one of the staple foods in sub-Saharan Africa.

Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the short term interest rate. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation method proposed by Nowman (1997). An empirical application to U.S. and British interest rates is given.

Neyman's Smooth Test And Its Use In Econometrics, Anil K. Bera, Aurobindo Ghosh

Research Collection School Of Economics

The following essay is a reappraisal of the role of the smooth test proposed by Neyman (1937) in the context of current applications in econometrics. We revisit the derivation of the smooth test and put it into the perspective of the existing literature on tests based on probability integral transforms suggested by early pioneers such as R.A.Fisher (1930, 1932) and Karl Pearson (1933, 1934) and the other tests for goodness-of-fit. Our discussion touches data-driven and other methods of testing and inference on the order of the smooth test and the motivation and choice of orthogonal polynomials used by Neyman and …

Validation Of Tissue Microarrays For Immunohistochemical Profiling Of Cancer Specimens Using The Example Of Human Fibroblastic Tumors, Axel Hoos, M. J. Urist, A. Stojadinovic, S. Mastorides, M. Dudas, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Tissue microarrays allow high-throughput molecular profiling of cancer specimens by immunohistochemistry. Phenotype information of sections from arrayed biopsies on a multitissue block needs to be representative of full sections, as protein expression varies throughout the entire tumor specimen. To validate the use of tissue microarrays for immunophenotyping, we studied a group of 59 fibroblastic tumors with variable protein expression patterns by immunohistochemistry for Ki-67, p53, and the retinoblastoma protein (pRB). Data on full tissue sections were compared to the results of one, two, and three 0.6-mm core biopsies per tumor on a tissue array. Ki-67 and p53 staining was read …

Mapping The Discipline Of The Olympic Games: An Author Cocitation Analysis, Peter Warning, Rosie Ching, Kristine Toohey

Research Collection School Of Economics

The authors conducted an author cocitation analysis on prominent authors writing about the Olympics during the 1990s. Author cocitation is an established bibliometric technique that can be used to measure the relative similarities of topics written about by the cited authors. This enables a visual representation of the “intellectual space” of the discipline, in this case the Olympics, to be created for the period under review. So core and peripheral research areas are identified, along with their major contributors. The representation appears as a two-dimensional cluster-enhanced map. Subject expertise was then applied to the results to place labels on the …

Optimal Designs For Evaluating A Series Of Treatments, Denis H. Y. Leung, You Gan Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification …

Nipa Accounts, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection contains:

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2001, June 6). Structure of NIPA accounts [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Programming in EViews [Handwritten notes].

Tutism Tutorial Eco 208s, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection contains:

• Tutsim commands and block syntax: Block syntax index and function group index [Guide]. (n.d.).

• Goodwin model file and graph [Computer printout]. (1986, October 3).

• Goodwin, R. M. (1967). A growth cycle. In C. H. Feinstein (Ed.), Socialism, capitalism and economic growth: Essays presented to Maurice Dobb (pp. 165–170). Cambridge University Press.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1986, October). Goodwin wage-employment cycle model [Handwritten notes].

• Hirsch, M. W., & Smale, S. (1974). Differential equations, dynamical systems, and linear algebra [Book excerpts]. Academic Press.

• Growth and cycles [Course outline and syllabus for Economics 208]. …

A Bayesian Decision Approach For Sample Size Determination In Phase Ii Trials, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Stallard (1998, Biometrics54, 279–294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics50, 337–349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or …

Statistical Methods For Clinical Studies In The Presence Of Surrogate End Points, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

The use of surrogate end points has become increasingly common in medical and biological research. This is primarily because, in many studies, the primary end point of interest is too expensive or too difficult to obtain. There is now a large volume of statistical methods for analysing studies with surrogate end point data. However, to our knowledge, there has not been a comprehensive review of these methods to date. This paper reviews some existing methods and summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of each method. It also discusses the assumptions that are made by each method and critiques how likely these …

Ral And Labor Wage Curve, Misc. Papers, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Asymmetries in U.K. wage share and employment rate, 1855-1999 [Annotated research paper on Goodwin growth-cycle asymmetries]. (2001).
• Screpanti, E. (1998, December). Wages, employment and militancy: A simple model and some empirical tests [Working paper]. Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia Politica, Universita degli Studi di Siena.

How Accurate Are Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses In Large Var Models?, Lutz Kilian, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the finite-sample accuracy and average length of pointwise confidence intervals for impulse responses in vector autoregressive models with many variables and many lags. Our results complement existing simulation evidence based on much simpler bivariate models.

Bugs For A Bayesian Analysis Of Stochastic Volatility Models, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper reviews the general Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in stochastic volatility models with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. The main purpose is to illustrate the ease with which the Bayesian stochastic volatility model can now be studied routinely via BUGS (Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling), a recently developed, user-friendly, and freely available software package. It is an ideal software tool for the exploratory phase of model building as any modifications of a model including changes of priors and sampling error distributions are readily realized with only minor changes of the code. However, due to the single move …

A Monte Carlo Investigation Of Some Tests For Stochastic Dominance, Yiu Kuen Tse, Xibin Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper compares the performance of several tests for stochastic dominance up to order three using Monte Carlo methods. The tests considered are the Davidson and Duclos (2000) test, the Anderson test (1996) and the Kaur, Rao and Singh (1994) test. We find that the Davidson-Duclos test appears to be the best. The Kaur-Rao-Singh test is overly conservative and does not compare favorably against the Davidson-Duclos and Anderson tests in terms of power.

A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Data Bank: A Real-Time Data Set For Macroeconomists, Dean D. Croushore, Tom Stark

Economics Faculty Publications

Economic policies are set and forecasts are made based on data that policymakers and forecasters have available to them. But such data are often revised — at times significantly. As a result, when policies and forecasts are viewed from the perspective of today's data, they may not seem sensible. Recognizing this problem, the Research Department at the Philadelphia Fed created a real-time data set so that economists today have the same data that were available to policymakers and forecasters in the past. In this article, Dean Croushore and Tom Stark tell how the data set was constructed, show how large …