Econometrics Commons^™

Utilizing Extreme Value Theory To Uncover Yield Distributions From Farm And County Level Historical Corn Yields, Gerald H. Van Tassell

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Yield risk represents a major portion of the financial risk facing corn producers and is found in the left tail of the yield distribution. Traditional methods for generating yield distributions fall into two categories: parametric and non-parametric. The shape and behavior of the tail of parametric yield distributions are determined by distributional assumptions. Non-parametric distributions fail to account for the possibility of as yet unseen extreme events, often referred to as “Black Swans”. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) rectifies these issues by providing an empirical, parametric estimate of the risk of extreme events, regardless of the underlying distribution of corn yields. …

Essays On Cryptocurrency Assets, Minwoo Song

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 - Herd Instinct in the Digital Currency Markets: In this chapter, We establish that the actions of influential opinion leaders in the digital currency markets and potential investors following their lead drive abnormal cryptocurrency returns. We develop a psychological and behavioral factor, named the herd behavior index, that detects the herd instinct of the investors in cryptocurrency markets and captures anomalies in cryptocurrency returns. Our finding shows that the herd behavior index can explain the variation in cryptocurrency returns. Moreover, there exists a time-series relationship between abnormal returns and the investors’ herd instinct, and the herd behavior index …

Ideology And Economic Change, Jared Rubin, Debin Ma

ESI Working Papers

This paper revisits the old theses of the contrasting paths to modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of ideology and ideological change—Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West pitted against Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism—as the key driver behind these contrasting paths. Our framework and historical narrative highlight the contrast between Tokugawa Japan’s feudal, decentralized political regime and Qing China’s centralized bureaucratic system as a key determinant driving the differential patterns of ideological realignment. We argue that the 1894-95 Japanese naval victory over China could not be justified under the …

Moral Content Diminishes Preference Falsification, Maxine Bonneau, Tanya O'Garra, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

We examine how the moral (or neutral) content of an issue influences the tendency to falsify attitudes, given varying social and monetary incentives to engage in such ‘preference falsification’. We conduct an incentivized two stage online experimental study where, in a prior first stage, attitude strength over moral and neutral issues is elicited. Then, in the second stage participants in groups of ten were asked to express their preferences regarding the moral or neutral issues for each possible combination of supporters and opposers in their group, each associated with varying monetary payoffs. More than half of the participants falsify their …

Value Added Tax Rate Variation, Import Demand And Sectoral Output In Nigeria, Joshua K. Nomkuha, Aondoawase Asooso, Philip T. Abachi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study employs computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effect of increase in value added tax (VAT), from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, on import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria. The study uses 2020 as the base year for the data analysis. The results show that increase in VAT affects import demand negatively, based on import penetration ratios, with mixed effect across six sectors. The implication of the result is that the VAT policy discourage consumption of foreign products, and constitute excess burden to consumers of such products in Nigeria. The results further reveal that …

Trade Liberalization, Non-Oil Export And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Jerome T. Andohol, Terhemen Tarzoor, Dennis T. Nomor

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the impact of trade liberalization and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilizes an autoregressive distributed lag model and found the combined effect of trade liberalization and non-oil exports to be positive and statistical significant. While trade liberalization alone may have negative consequences, its synergy with a robust non-oil export can drive sustainable economic growth. The study recommends that strategies to enhance non-oil exports should be encouraged to support the effectiveness of trade liberalization in promoting growth.

The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transmission In Nigeria: Evidence From The Monetary Policy Rate And The Cash Reserve Ratio, Abdulrahman A. Nadani, Auwal Isah

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) as policy instruments in Nigeria. A structural VAR model is employed to simulate two distinct models measuring shocks from the MPR and the CRR using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2023. Findings show that contractionary monetary policy impulses using MPR and the CRR contract output and credit to the private sector, inflation remains largely positive in the two models, known as the “price puzzle”, but the puzzle is more persistent in the MPR equation. Moreover, shock to MPR strongly influences short-term interest …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzes the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of Nigerian stock market. The study uses a number of models that include autoregressive distributed lag, vector auto regression, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Findings show that reported cases of COVID-19 have causal effect on daily returns of the Nigerian stock market. The results also show that Nigerian stocks are good for portfolio diversification. The results of variance decomposition confirm the declining importance of COVID-19 cases and deaths as the pandemic slows down. Further results show that, for the duration of the …

Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Financial Inclusion And Development In Nigeria, Okwanya Innocent, Taiwo A. Olusegun, Aimua E. Peace

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on financial inclusion and development in Nigeria. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and impulse response function (IRF) to determine the extent and response of financial inclusion and development to fiscal policy changes in Nigeria. The study derives a financial inclusion index from three core indicators: access, usage and quality of financial services, while financial development is measured as the ratio of money supply to GDP (M2/GDP). The results show that government expenditure has a significant positive effect on financial inclusion and development, while tax revenue exerts a negative …

Trade Imbalance, Heavy Goods, And Pollution, Jungho Lee, Shang-Jin Wei, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a new welfare effect of trade surplus. Guided by insight from several fields in economics, we provide evidence that an increase in a country's trade surplus alters the unit shipping costs for its trade and the composition of its imports in ways that induce more pollution in the country in equilibrium. This new form of welfare loss of trade imbalance has not been accounted for in the existing international economics literature

Capital Flows And Corruption On Southeast And East Asia’S Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis, Tithvitou Teng

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the role of capital flows both from internal and external sources on economic growth, as well as the main social obstacle factor to growth, corruption. The paper attains this by conducting panel data analysis for Southeast and East Asian countries from 2005-2022. Sources of capital flows are divided into external sources, i.e. foreign direct investment (FDI) and personal remittance, and internal sources, i.e. domestic bank credit and stock market capitalization. The results show that corruption hinders economic growth and only some sources of capital have a positive impact on the economy while the effect of other sources …

Hosting Mega Events Impact On Gdp Growth: A Panel Data Analysis, Silas Pearce

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the impact of hosting “mega events” such as the Olympics on a country’s GDP growth. The study incorporates information on the country’s factors of economic development. Spillovers will be modeled through the state of the global economy by using controls such as countries that did not host mega events. The results show that countries that host the Olympics do not see any extra GDP growth than those that did not host an event.

A Panel Data Analysis Of The Effect Of Corruption And Macroeconomic Factors On Inequality And Poverty In Latin America, Annie Mcdonald

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates how a country’s income inequality and poverty are affected by corruption, and other economic indicators. The study’s purpose is to find which countries harbor corruption that causes more inequality and poverty and if high or low levels of macroeconomic factors, like unemployment for example, cause an increase in inequality/poverty as well. The panel data will include 11 countries located in Latin America and it will cover a ten-year period (2012-2021). After running six regressions, the results showed there were some differences from other papers. It was found that certain countries exhibit unique challenges that contribute to their …

Economic Peaks, An Analysis Of Financial & Real Estate Speculations In The Top 5 U.S Cities, Nicholas M. Basley

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Economic Peaks conducts a comprehensive analysis of financial and real estate speculations in the United States, more specifically the top five cities per population in the United States. This study spans the period from 2000 to 2023, utilizing time series data to reveal economic trends and identify potential structural breaks during recession periods. By employing advanced statistical methods, the research aims to discern distinctive patterns in the housing and financial markets of each of the major cities, unveiling the presence of unsustainable price appreciation and the factors contributing to its emergence. This study seeks to offer valuable insights into the …

An Empirical Analysis Of The Status Of Income Inequality New England In 2022, Aidan Wilkinson

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the status of income inequality within the New England states in 2022. The empirical analysis conducted within this paper uses a similar model within Fadi Fawaz et al. for high income countries to analyze and predict the Gini coefficient within the six New England States. More specifically, the model that is tested analyzes monthly unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, welfare spending, and the top 1% wealth distribution. The results show that Rhode Island and Maine Gini indexes could only be described by the top 1% wealth distribution and welfare spending, respectively. We also find that …

Hdi And Standard Of Living: A Panel Data Analysis Of Latin America, Matthew Susich

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the correlation between the Human Development Index and other significant measures of standard of living. The study incorporates data for upper- and middle-income countries in Latin America (Mexico, Costa Rica, Columbia, Peru, Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay, Guatemala, Jamaica, Belize, and Bolivia) surrounding standard of living, including GDP per capita, public spending on education, public spending on health, GNI per capita, unemployment, infant mortality, and inflation. The conclusions from this study are drawn from regression analysis and tests of correlation between the Human Development Index and alternative measures of standard of living. The results show that unemployment and infant …

Hitting The Books: An Empirical Analysis Of The Effect Of Education Expenditure On Gdp Per Capita And Economic Growth, Matt Simmons

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the link between education spending in Mexico and Central American countries and illegal immigration to the United States. Despite challenges like poverty and governance issues, these nations experience significant migration to the U.S., underscoring the need for deeper insights. Analyzing economic motivations and migration costs, the study emphasizes education expenditure's role in economic growth. Through empirical analysis, it highlights the importance of addressing root causes and offers policy recommendations. Overall, this research contributes to understanding the intricate relationship between education, immigration, and economic development.

How Unsdgs Are Reflected In Folklore, Jacob Mann

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals in a country and the prevalence of those goals in that country’s folklore. The study incorporates folklore collected into an aspect-based sentiment analyzer to examine the prevalence of, and attitude towards various aspects of the text. A combination of ConceptNet and the widely available Natural Language Toolkit is implemented to retrieve polarity scores related to key aspects of the texts. The results indicate that there are correlations between the attitude towards a theme in folklore, and the attitudes towards that theme in a country. JEL

Shifting The Ice: Analyzing The Impact Of The 2013 Nhl Cba To The Competitive Balance Of The League, Ryan Lacy

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates whether the 2013 National Hockey League (NHL) Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which hardened the existing salary cap, increased team revenue sharing, and instituted additional restrictions on player contracts, results in a more competitively balanced league. The study incorporates an OLS regression and Quantile regression to examine the impact of the 2013 CBA on the competitive balance of the league. The results show that the changes allow for a dispersion of talent, specifically offensive talent, and demonstrated a positive relationship between spending and points obtained by teams in the top 25% of the league. Conversely, teams that did …

The Causes All Time High Chronic Homelessness: A Panel Analysis, Robert Knight

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates what economic indicators affect the rate of homelessness in the United States. By combining both the personal issues of the homeless people themselves along with economic structural issues in U.S. this study finds what the largest determinants of chronic homelessness. The study includes variables such as median house prices from the Case Shiller Index, the poverty rate, unemployment rate, health care expenditures per capita and demographics to find what causes a higher homeless rate. The data used to determine the conclusions will be pulled from twenty different major U.S. metropolitan cities to showcase how different economic variables …

Time Series Analysis Of The Impact Of Climate Change On The Rocky Mountain Ski Industry, Charlotte Christo

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the correlation between climate change and the ski industry. This study will incorporate the annual snowfall and mean temperature and annual visitations to American ski resorts. The model studied will investigate if the rising temperatures affect snow fall totals in popular ski areas as well the visitor amounts per season. This model will be used to run a multiple regression that will account for various controls including the distribution of snow fall throughout the season.

Does Money Really Buy Success? Empirical Analysis Of Money Spent Effect On English Premier League Team’S Performances/Success: A Panel Data Analysis, Barnaby Brandon

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between the wages of English Premier League teams and their success. This study incorporates information from the league regarding each team’s spending and the performance of each of these teams every year. Each team has a specific spending structure based on the magnitude of the club and ability of the players. The research will look at all teams that have stayed in the premier league for the past 10 years as some teams come in and out of the Premier League with the relegation and promotion system. The results will show whether having higher …

The Role Of Institutional Quality Factors On Inequality In Upper-Middle Income Countries In Latin America, Alexia Brandao

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the influence that institutional quality factors have on the power or spread of inequality across low-income countries, as opposed to high income countries. As such, an empirical study and analysis will be conducted to measure the impact of the following institutional quality factors: control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, regulatory quality, rule of law, and voice and accountability. Specifically, cross-sectional or panel data from the World Bank will be utilized to look at upper-middle income nations in Latin America. The factors will be simultaneously measured against the Gini Coefficient. These countries include …

Beyond The Arc: Investigating The Impact Of 3-Point Shots On Nba Revenue: An Empirical Analysis, Cameron Bolduc

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the impact of Stephen Curry’s revolution of the three-point shot and its impact on NBA’s revenues. The study will incorporate the five years prior to Stephen Curry’s back-to-back MVP’s and the five years after those MVP’s. The model will examine three-point makes and percentage per game, along with a player’s effective field goal percentage, as well as playoff wins and attendance in home games. The study’s results showed that in the five years after Stephen Curry changed the game and won his MVPs, the three-point shot was a big driver in a team’s revenue. These results do …

Broken Asset Bubbles: The Factors Affect Japan's Economy From Prosperity To Decline, Mark Yang

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Japan was in the most prosperous period of the economy in the 1980s, during which the GDP growth rate of Japan was high-speed, and the economic scale of Japan was second only to the United States in the world. Japan became the second largest economy in the world. But the boom was the unsustainable illusion of a bubble economy of rising house and stock prices. In the early 1990s, the collapse of Japanese real estate and stock market prices severely affected the Japanese economy, leaving many banks and companies heavily indebted. Japan's economy fell into a decade-long stagnation known as …

A Cross-Section Analysis Of Factors Affecting Interstate 11 Migration In The United States, Kasey Thomas

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the factors influencing interstate migration in the United States of America. This study incorporates political affiliations and income and property tax policy into an existing migration determinants model. This is done to examine the influence of policy or potential future policies on an individual’s decision-making in addition to household factors. The greatest factors influencing an individual's decision to move are the average January temperature, the income tax rate, and the number of hazardous waster sites in the state.

The Causal Nexus Between Government Expenditure On Education And Individual Savings Behavior In Argentina, Amanda Spielman

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of interdependence between education and savings by looking at the relationship between a country’s government expenditure on education and the saving rate. Public education expenditure has been studied as an explanatory variable for economic growth, but similar studies determining its impact on household savings behavior are lacking. This research looks to determine Granger Causality using the Vector Error Correction Model between this measure of the quality of education and savings rate for Argentina. The results show bidirectional causality between the savings rate and government expenditure on education, as well as unidirectional causality with government expenditure …

What Gives? Trust, Risk, Altruism, And Reciprocity Across 76 Countries, Sherwin Mosavat

Master's Theses

Abstract:

The decades-long literature pertaining to gender-specific preferences lies at the intersection of economics and psychology with a primary focus on the correlation between economic development and gender-specific preferences. Better understanding of this correlation has helped researchers understand how individuals make decisions for their education, finances, and occupation. Falk & Hermle (2018) assess the correlation between GDP and various gender-specific preferences including trust, risk, altruism, and reciprocity. In order to better understand the relationship between economic development and gender-specific preferences, I expand on the Falk & Hermle 2018 framework by introducing new macroeconomic, prosocial, and cultural variables as additional explanatory …

Analysis Of Inequality In Household Internet Utilization And Policy Implications, Shanisara Chamwong, Thoedsak Chomtohsuwan, Narissara Charoenphandhu

Journal of Demography

This research investigates the pervasive inequality in household internet access and use that contributes to the digital divide. As the internet becomes an integral part of daily life, variations in access and use carry significant implications for social and economic opportunities. A quantitative approach is applied, analyzing data from The National Statistical Office of Thailand to capture a comprehensive understanding of inequality in household internet access and use, as measured by the Gini coefficient. Five aspects of internet access and use are considered as the determinants of inequality, including internet connectivity, internet affordability, internet quality, device availability, and flexibility and …