Econometrics Commons^™

Capacity Utiliz + Hick Adj, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2005, April 14). Capacity utiliz and Hick adj [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2002, September). Aanotes (File: cointusgdpkstock1jamee.wf1) [Typed notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

Simulation-Based Two-Step Estimation With Endogenous Regressors, Kamhon Kan, Chihwa Kao

Center for Policy Research

This paper considers models with latent/discrete endogenous regressors and presents a simulation-based two-step (STS) estimator. The endogeneity is corrected by adopting a simulation-based control function approach. The first step consists of simulating the residuals of the reduced-form equation for endogenous regressors. The second step is a regression model (linear, latent or discrete) with the simulated residual as an additional regressor. In this paper we develop the asymptotic theory for the STS estimator and its rate of convergence.

On The Estimation And Inference Of A Panel Cointegration Model With Cross-Sectional Dependence, Jushan Bai, Chihwa Kao

Center for Policy Research

Most of the existing literature on panel data cointegration assumes cross-sectional independence, an assumption that is difficult to satisfy. This paper studies panel cointegration under cross-sectional dependence, which is characterized by a factor structure. We derive the limiting distribution of a fully modified estimator for the panel cointegrating coefficients. We also propose a continuous-updated fully modified (CUP-FM) estimator). Monte Carlo results show that the CUP-FM estimator has better small sample properties than the two-step FM (2S-FM) and OLS estimators.

Simultaneous Equations In Ordered Discrete Responses With Regressor-Dependent Thresholds, Myoung-Jae Lee, A. Kimhi

Research Collection School Of Economics

The parameters of ordered discrete response (ODR) models are identified only up to a positive scale. In this paper, we examine the identification issue for simultaneous equations with ODR, where the well-known identification problem in simultaneous equations of recovering structural-form parameters from reduced-form parameters is compounded with the ODR identification problem. We allow the thresholds in ODR to be regressor dependent as well as constant; the former is particularly challenging because threshold parameters get mixed with regression parameters, adding one more dimension to the identification problem. We also explore a cross-equation restriction on threshold differences, under which the structural form …

A Bootstrap Test For Conditional Symmetry, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a simple consistent non-parametric test of conditional symmetry based on the principle of characteristic functions. The test statistic is shown to be asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis of conditional symmetry and consistent against any conditional asymmetric distributions. We also study the power against local alternatives, propose a bootstrap version of the test, and conduct a small Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the test.

Comment: A Selective Overview Of Nonparametric Methods In Financial Econometrics, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

These comments concentrate on two issues arising from Fan’s overview. The first concerns the importance of finite sample estimation bias relative to the specification and discretization biases that are emphasized in Fan’s discussion. Past research and simulations given here both reveal that finite sample effects can be more important than the other two effects when judged from either statistical or economic viewpoints. Second, we draw attention to a very different nonparametric technique that is based on computing an empirical version of the quadratic variation process. This technique is not mentioned by Fan but has many advantages and has accordingly attracted …

An Analytical Framework Of Science Parks And Technology Districts With An Application To Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Ted Feichin Tschang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper analyzes the question: What does it take for science parks and technology districts to evolve and grow? We propose an analytical framework to examine the gestation, evolution, and sustainability of science parks and related but broader regional phenomena such as technology districts. The framework comprises three aspects of a science park's development: growth mechanisms, level of technological capabilities, and nature of its integration with national or global markets. The main growth mechanisms we identify are government-led infrastructure provision, agglomeration effects, and continual self-renewal through the creation of new businesses. We apply this framework to analyze Singapore's science park …

Empirical Investment Functions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August). Empirical investment functions [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2005, June 12). ECM regression output for LNYJPN, 1969–2000 [Regression output]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2005, June 12). ADL regression output for LNYJPN, 1969–2000 [Regression output]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August 15). Empirical fixed investment functions [Handwritten notes discussing expectation models and empirical results for U.S. manufacturing]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August 10). gk vs. u for manufacturing, 1926–1985 [Graph]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August 11). gk (scaled) vs. Ut for manufacturing [Graph]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, August 7). Empirical …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2004, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

On Measuring Influence In Non-Binary Voting Games, Vincent Chua, C. H. Ueng

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this note, we demonstrate using two simple examples that generalization of the Banzhaf measure of voter influence to non-binary voting games that requires as starting position a voter’s membership in a winning coalition is likely to incompletely reflect the influence a voter has on the outcome of a game. Generalization of the Banzhaf measure that takes into consideration all possible pivot moves of a voter including those moves originating from a losing coalition will, on the other hand, result in a measure that is proportional to the Penrose measure only in the ternary case.

L S Penrose's Limit Theorem: Tests By Simulation, Pao-Li Chang, Vincent Chua, Moshe Machover

Research Collection School Of Economics

LS Penrose’s limit theorem (PLT) – which is implicit in Penrose [5, p. 72] and for which he gave no rigorous proof – says that, in simple weighted voting games, if the number of voters increases indefinitely while existing voters retain their weights and the relative quota is pegged, then – under certain conditions – the ratio between the voting powers of any two voters converges to the ratio between their weights. Lindner and Machover [3] prove some special cases of PLT; and conjecture that the theorem holds, under rather general conditions, for large classes of weighted voting games, various …

Analytically Calibrated Box-Cox Percentile Limits For Duration And Event-Time Models, Zhenlin Yang, Albert K.C. Tsui

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a unified approach to constructing confidence limits for a future percentile duration or event-time. The construction is based on an analytical calibration of the Box-Cox-type “plug-in” percentile limits (PL). The performance of the calibrated Box-Cox PL is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments. Comparisons are made with PLs that are specifically designed for a particular distribution such as Weibull and lognormal. Excellent performances of the calibrated Box-Cox PL are observed. Simulation based on other popular duration models such as gamma and inverse Gaussian reveal that the proposed PL is robust against distributional assumptions and that it performs much …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2004, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation And Model Comparison, Jun Yu, Renate Meyer

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we show that fully likelihood-based estimation and comparison of multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models can be easily performed via a freely available Bayesian software called WinBUGS. Moreover, we introduce to the literature several new specifications which are natural extensions to certain existing models, one of which allows for time varying correlation coefficients. Ideas are illustrated by fitting, to a bivariate time series data of weekly exchange rates, nine multivariate SV models, including the specifications with Granger causality in volatility, time varying correlations, heavy-tailed error distributions, additive factor structure, and multiplicative factor structure. Empirical results suggest that the …

Asymmetric Response Of Volatility: Evidence From Stochastic Volatility Models And Realized Volatility, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the asymmetric response of equity volatility to return shocks. We generalize the news impact function (NIF), originally introduced by Engle and Ng (1993) to study asymmetric volatility under the ARCH-type models, to be applicable to both stochastic volatility (SV) and ARCH-type models. Based on the generalized concept, we provide a unified framework to examine asymmetric properties of volatility. A new asymmetric volatility model, which nests both ARCH and SV models and at the same time allows for a more flexible NIF, is proposed. Empirical results based on daily index return data support the classical asymmetric SV model …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2004, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Trans-Normal Distribution: A Flexible Model For Duration And Event-Time Data, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new family of distributions, called the trans-normal distribution is introduced. Its basic properties are presented. A closely related family of distributions called tran-t distribution is also given along with its basic properties. Trans-normal regression is used as an illustration on the usefullness of the new distribution.

Constructing A Coincident Index Of Business Cycles Without Assuming A One-Factor Model, Roberto S. Mariano, Yasutomo Murasawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Stock-Watson coincident index and its subsequent extensions assume a static linear one-factor structure for the component indicators. Such assumption is restrictive in practice, however, with as few as four indicators. In fact, such assumption is unnecessary if one defines a coincident index as an estimate of latent monthly real GDP. This paper considers VAR and factor models for latent monthly real GDP and other coincident indicators, and estimates the models using the observable mixed-frequency series. For US data, Schwartz’s Bayesian information criterion selects a two-factor model. The smoothed estimate of latent monthly real GDP is the proposed index.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2004, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Tests Of Transformation In Nonlinear Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Gemai Chen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper presents three versions of the Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests of transformation in nonlinear regression: (i) LM test based on expected information, (ii) LM test based on Hessian, and (iii) the LM test based on gradient. All three tests can be easily implemented through a nonlinear least squares procedure. Simulation results show that, in terms of finite sample performance, the LM test based on expected information is the best, followed by the LM test based on Hessian and then the LM test based on gradient. The LM test based on gradient can perform rather poorly. An example is given …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2004, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2004, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Estimation Of Hyperbolic Diffusion Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method, Yiu Kuen Tse, Xibin Zhang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a Bayesian method to estimate the hyperbolic diffusion model. The approach is based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the likelihood of the discretized process as the approximate posterior likelihood. We demonstrate that the MCMC method Provides a useful tool in analysing hyperbolic diffusions. In particular, quantities of posterior distributions obtained from the MCMC outputs can be used for statistical inference. The MCMC method based on the Milstein scheme is unsatisfactory. Our simulation study shows that the hyperbolic diffusion exhibits many of the stylized facts about asset returns documented in the discrete-time …

Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between leading indicators representing expectations, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is first demonstrated by Granger causality tests. The VAR model is then used to derive the dynamic paths …

Monotonicity Conditions And Inequality Imputation For Sample-Selection And Non-Response Problems, Myoung-Jae Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

Under a sample selection or non-response problem, where a response variable y is observed only when a condition δ = 1 is met, the identified mean E(y|δ = 1) is not equal to the desired mean E(y). But the monotonicity condition E(y|δ = 1) ≤ E(y|δ = 0) yields an informative bound E(y|δ = 1) ≤ E(y), which is enough for certain inferences. For example, in a majority voting with δ being the vote-turnout, it is enough to know if E(y) > 0.5 or not, for which E(y|δ = 1) > 0.5 is sufficient under the monotonicity. The main question is then …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2004, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper is concerned with specification for modelling financial leverage effect in the context of stochastic volatility (SV) models. Two alternative specifications co-exist in the literature. One is the Euler approximation to the well known continuous time SV model with leverage effect and the other is the discrete time SV model of Jacquier, Polson and Rossi (2004, Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming). Using a Gaussian nonlinear state space form with uncorrelated measurement and transition errors, I show that it is easy to interpret the leverage effect in the conventional model whereas it is not clear how to obtain the leverage effect …

Multiple Testing To Establish Superiority/Equivalence Of A New Treatment Compared With K Standard Treatments For Unbalanced Designs, Koon Shing Kwong, Siu Hung Cheung, Wai-Sum Chan

Research Collection School Of Economics

In clinical studies, multiple superiority/equivalence testing procedures can be applied to classify a new treatment as superior, equivalent (same therapeutic effect), or inferior to each set of standard treatments. Previous stepwise approaches (Dunnett and Tamhane, 1997, Statistics in Medicine 16, 2489–2506; Kwong, 2001, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 97, 359–366) are only appropriate for balanced designs. Unfortunately, the construction of similar tests for unbalanced designs is far more complex, with two major difficulties: (i) the ordering of test statistics for superiority may not be the same as the ordering of test statistics for equivalence; and (ii) the correlation structure …

Expectations Formation And Forecasting Of Vehicle Demand: An Empirical Study Of The Vehicle Quota Auctions In Singapore, Sing-Fat Chu, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the expectations formation and forecasting of vehicle demand in Singapore under the vehicle quota system. Under the system, a car buyer must first bid for a vehicle license in monthly auctions in order to purchase a new car. We construct an econometric model to test the hypothesis that past bid distributions of the license auctions contain information that car buyers can use to update their expectations about the intensity of market demand, forecast the license premiums and formulate their bidding strategies in future auctions. Our empirical analysis indicates that past bid distributions have a good degree of …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- May 2004, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.