Econometrics Commons^™

State Level Comparison Of Factors Contributing To Rising Inpatient Hospital Costs, Jeff Fontaine

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

No abstract provided.

The Economic Benefits Of Education As A Return To Gdp Per Capita, Jonathan Brown

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines many different factors of education, including the levels of education received, the expenditures per student as well as for each level of education, and the measurement of unemployed with said levels of education as to how it affects the levels of GDP per capita. What is consistent across each regression is that in fact, the average years of education received by the population will most closely have a beneficial effect on the levels of GDP per capita. What these regressions also show are tendencies to look more towards the future rather than the past. When considering unemployment, …

Are Educated Women Less Likely To Get Married?, Qian Jiang

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

In the past, there are some research indicate that highly educated women marry less. Because women tend to face the success penalty, however, a new analysis of U.S. census data indicates that--despite cultural messages to the contrary--the success gap, in which better educated women marry less, is actually shrinking. Using 2008 Current Population Survey, this paper utilized Probit regression to analyze how increase of women's educational attainment can influenced marriage and other aspects such as financial well-being. In addition, this study tries to estimate the best levels of education for women to be more likely to married.

The Effect Of Tax-Burdens On Foreign Direct Investment: A Cross-Sectional Look At Developing Economies, Kevin Hauver

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the effect that certain aspects of the tax burden have on foreign direct investment in developing economies. Using data from 35 select countries, the paper uses an OLS regression model to determine the impact that various taxes, both on individuals and corporations, can have on FDI. The paper concludes that corporate tax rates are not a statistically significant factor for determining FDI inflows into a host country, but that indirect tax rates are. This is likely due to the use of ‘enterprise zones’, which offer favorable indirect tax rates to companies that choose to operate in a …

The Impacts Of Energy Efficiency And Consumption On Gdp In The Euro Area, Justin T. Getts

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper analyzes the aggregate data of the Euro Area to determine how GDP per unit of energy is affected by the use of common energy sources. Time series data from 1980 to 2005 is used to show the change in how energy is used compared to the growth of GDP. It is revealed in this paper that the consumption of efficient forms of energy is highly correlated to GDP growth and the use of inefficient energy sources leads to less growth.

The Effect Of Crime Rates On Home Prices: A Hedonic Study, John Paul Goncalves

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The hedonic regression model in this study is from a Florida based study that has been applied on a national level. The results of this research will indicate the most significant variables which support the overall effect on the price of a home. The emphasis of this study is to examine the overall impact of crime rates on average home prices in America’s state capitals.

An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Home Foreclosure On The Crime Rate: Evidence In Atlanta, Ga, Luis G. Acevedo

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Over the past 28 years the United States has seen its share of prosperity and hard times. At times there have been significant increases in the number of subprime mortgages issued in the United States. Studies have shown that the number of foreclosures is highly correlated to the number of subprime loans issued. Another main issue that seems to occur with the abundance of loans and the spike in foreclosures is that crime rates tend to also increase during these times. The two major crimes that will be taken into account are violent crime and property crimes. I use foreclosure, …

Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Borderplex Bridge Traffic, Marcycruz De Leon, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Brian W. Kelley

Departmental Papers (E & F)

Budget constraints are forcing many governments to consider implementing tolls as a means for financing bridge and road expenditures. Newly available time series data make it possible to analyze the impacts of toll variations and international business cycle fluctuations on cross-border bridge traffic between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez. Parameter estimation is carried out using a linear transfer function ARIMA methodology. Price elasticities of demand are similar to those reported for other regional economies, but out-of-sample forecasting results are mixed.

Can Parallel Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?, John F. Roberts

Honors Theses

Commodity price uncertainty imposes large costs on society. On the macro level, it results in sudden and unexpected shifts in current account imbalances and real GDP volatility, while on the micro level, it leads to allocation inefficiencies. Accurate price forecasts have the potential to remove some of this uncertainty and allow for a more efficient distribution of resources, and thus, an increase in social welfare. Despite the obvious gains to be had from accurate commodity price forecasts, few models have been able to deliver these results. Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2008) were the first to find a promising link between …

Do Good Things Come Out After Recessions? The Productivity-Business Cycle Interaction, Michael M. Alba, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

For the past two decades, the Philippines has endured a wave of recessions, events that technically represent fluctuations in economic activity. While some of these recessions have been shallow, resulting in minor deviations from where our economy should be, some have been deep and devastating like the ones that occurred during the last years of the Marcos regime.

Bonds, Stocks Or Dollars? Do Voters Care About Capital Markets In Brazil And Mexico, Tony Petros Spanakos, Lucio Remuzat Renno Jr.

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

How does vote intention in presidential elections vary according to the economic conditions of a country, especially indicators of the financial market? Does the state of the economy, both its fundamentals as well as capital market, affect variation in candidates’ percentage of vote intention in national polls? This paper tests how economic indicators influence vote intention in presidential elections in two emerging markets: Brazil and Mexico. The presidential elections of 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006 in Brazil and 2000 and 2006 in Mexico are analyzed using all poll returns for each electoral period and corresponding economic data. The paper finds …

Semiparametric Cointegrating Rank Selection, Xu Cheng, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Some convenient limit properties of usual information criteria are given for cointegrating rank selection. Allowing for a non-parametric short memory component and using a reduced rank regression with only a single lag, standard information criteria are shown to be weakly consistent in the choice of cointegrating rank provided the penalty coefficient C(n) -> infinity and C(n)/n -> 0 as n -> 8. The limit distribution of the AIC criterion, which is inconsistent, is also obtained. The analysis provides a general limit theory for semiparametric reduced rank regression under weakly dependent errors. The method does not require the specification of a …

Asymptotics And Bootstrap For Transformed Panel Data Regressions, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for transformed random effects models where both the response and (some of) the covariates are subject to transformations for inducing normality, flexible functional form, homoscedasticity, and simple model structure. We develop a quasi maximum likelihood-type procedure for model estimation and inference. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates, and propose a simple bootstrap procedure that leads to a robust estimate of the variance-covariance matrix. Monte Carlo results reveal that these estimates perform well in finite samples, and that the gains by using bootstrap procedure for inference …

Capital Stock Revisions Theory Data, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• No bias in current price stock due to quality adjustment, an unpublished set of handwritten research notes and mathematical tables prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on May 30, 2009.
• Measurement of capital, a manuscript file folder label inscribed with the identification code NA-23-64, prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on June 5, 2026.
• Mathematical formulation of capital stock chain indexes and valuation identities, an unpublished set of handwritten equations and index number derivations prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

Semiparametric Prevalence Estimation From A Two-Phase Survey, Denis H. Y. Leung, J Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies a semi-parametric method for estimating the prevalence of a binary outcome using a two-phase survey. The motivation for a two-phase survey is, due to time, money and ethical considerations, it is impossible to carry out comprehensive evaluation on all subjects in a large random sample of the population. Rather, a relatively inexpensive "screening test" is given to all subjects in the random sample and only individuals more likely to have a positive outcome (cases) will be selected for a further "gold standard" test to verify the outcome. Therefore, individuals with verified outcome form a non-random sample from …

Markov Switching Var Model Of Speculative Pressure: An Application To The Asian Financial Crisis, Gregorio Iii Alfredo Vargas

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Markov switching models with time-varying transition probabilities address the limitations of the earlier methods in the early warning system literature on currency crises. Most of the Markov switching models in the literature are largely based on univariate models of exchange rate fluctuations. In this thesis, the components of the index of speculative pressure are modeled using the Markov Switching VAR with time-varying transition probabilities of Martinez Peria (2002). Two approaches, both of which are derived from this model, are taken to determine the probability of a currency crisis: the probability of a turbulent regime and the expected value of the …

Multivariate Garch Models For The Greater China Stock Markets, Xiaojun Song

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper reviews the commonly used multivariate GARCH models and uses the daily data of the four Greater China region stock markets, namely Hongkong, Shanghai,Shenzhen, and Singapore, and data of Japan as one ex-ogenous variable to investigate the volatility and shocks spillover behavior and to establish the market linkage among the four markets. We find that the volatility spillover between Shanghai and Shenzhen is obvious and correlation contagion is detected. Conditional variance and conditional correlations are time varying and dynamic which conforms to the arguments in most of the literature. Shanghai and Shenzhen present a very high correlation level during …

A Robust Lm Test For Spatial Error Components, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper presents a modified LM test of spatial error components, which is shown to be robust against distributional misspecifications and spatial layouts. The proposed test differs from the LM test of Anselin (2001) by a term in the denominators of the test statistics. This term disappears when either the errors are normal, or the variance of the diagonal elements of the product of spatial weights matrix and its transpose is zero or approaches to zero as sample size goes large. When neither is true, as is often the case in practice, the effect of this term can be significant …

A Centered Index Of Spatial Concentration: Axiomatic Approach With An Application To Population And Capital Cities, Filipe R. Campante, Quoc-Anh Do

Research Collection School Of Economics

We construct an axiomatic index of spatial concentration around a center or capital point of interest, a concept with wide applicability from urban economics, economic geography and trade, to political economy and industrial organization. We propose basic axioms (decomposability and monotonicity) and refinement axioms (order preservation, convexity, and local monotonicity) for how the index should respond to changes in the underlying distribution. We obtain a unique class of functions satisfying all these properties, defined over any n-dimensional Euclidian space: the sum of a decreasing, isoelastic function of individual distances to the capital point of interest, with specific boundaries for the …

Radio Spectrum And The Disruptive Clarity Of Ronald Coase, Thomas W. Hazlett, David Porter, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

In the Federal Communications Commission, Ronald Coase exposed deep foundations via normative argument buttressed by astute historical observation. The government controlled scarce frequencies, issuing sharply limited use rights. Spillovers were said to be otherwise endemic. Coase saw that Government limited conflicts by restricting uses; property owners perform an analogous function via the “price system.” The government solution was inefficient unless the net benefits of the alternative property regime were lower. Coase augured that the price system would outperform. His spectrum auction proposal was mocked by communications policy experts, opposed by industry interests, and ridiculed by policy makers. Hence, it took …

Go West Young Man: Self-Selection And Endogenous Property Rights, Taylor Jaworski, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Working Papers

If, as Hume argues, property is a self-referring custom of a group of people, then property rights depend on how that group forms and orders itself. In this paper we investigate how people construct a convention for property in an experiment in which groups of self-selected individuals can migrate between three geographically separate regions. We find that the absence of property rights clearly decreases wealth in our environment and that interest in establishing property rights is a key determinant of the decision to migrate to a new region. Theft is nearly eliminated among migrants, resulting in strong growth, and non-migrants …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2008., Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)'s 2008 report evaluates macroeconomic policies and outcomes, focusing on corporate operations and the economy's performance against domestic and external economic and financial developments. The CBN's monetary policy stance and banking and financial measures were deployed to ensure price stability and financial sector soundness. Despite the global economic downturn, the financial system remained relatively stable and overall macroeconomic performance was satisfactory. The formal financial system at end-December 2008 comprised the CBN, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Insurance Commission, the National Pension Commission, and various banks. The banking sector …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — December 2008, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Maximum Likelihood And Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models In Finance, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper overviews maximum likelihood and Gaussian methods of estimating continuous time models used in finance. Since the exact likelihood can be constructed only in special cases, much attention has been devoted to the development of methods designed to approximate the likelihood. These approaches range from crude Euler-type approximations and higher order stochastic Taylor series expansions to more complex polynomial-based expansions and infill approximations to the likelihood based on a continuous time data record. The methods are discussed, their properties are outlined and their relative finite sample performance compared in a simulation experiment with the nonlinear CIR diffusion model, which …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2008, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Future Fiscal And Budgetary Shocks, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the effects of future tax and budgetary shocks in a non-monetary and possibly non-Ricardian economy. An (unanticipated) temporary labor tax cut to be effective on a given future date—a delayed “debt bomb”—causes at once a drop in the (unit) value placed on the firms' business asset, the customer, with the result that share prices, the hourly wage, and employment drop in tandem. This paradox of reduced activity through announcement of future “stimulus” does not hinge on an upward jump of long interest rates. A future tax-rate cut lacking a “sunset” provision has the same negative effects.

Testing For Parameter Stability In Quantile Regression Models, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a test for structural change of conditional distribution in dynamic regression models. The test is constructed based on time series regression quantile estimates and complements conventional parameter instability tests in least-square type regression models. Asymptotic distribution for our test under the null hypothesis is derived.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — October 2008, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — September 2008, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Improving Semiparametric Estimation By Using Surrogate Data, Song Xi Chen, Leung, Denis H. Y., Jin Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper considers estimating a parameter beta that defines an estimating function U(y, x, beta) for an outcome variable y and its covariate x when the outcome is missing in some of the observations. We assume that, in addition to the outcome and the covariate, a surrogate outcome is available in every observation. The efficiency of existing estimators for beta depends critically on correctly specifying the conditional expectation of U given the surrogate and the covariate. When the conditional expectation is not correctly specified, which is the most likely scenario in practice, the efficiency of estimation can be severely compromised …