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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Selective Recognition: How To Recognize Donors To Increase Charitable Giving, Anya Samek, Roman Sheremeta Jan 2015

Selective Recognition: How To Recognize Donors To Increase Charitable Giving, Anya Samek, Roman Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

Recognizing donors by revealing their identities is important for increasing charitable giving. We conducted a field experiment to examine how different recognition methods impact giving, and found that all forms of recognition that we examined had a positive impact on increasing donations, whereby recognizing only highest donors (positive recognition) and recognizing only lowest donors (negative recognition) had the most pronounced effect. We argue that selective recognition (both positive and negative) creates tournament-like incentives. Recognizing the highest donors activates the desire to seek a positive prize of prestige, thus increasing the proportion of donors who contribute large amounts. Recognizing the lowest …

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Status And The Demand For Visible Goods: Experimental Evidence On Conspicuous Consumption, David Clingingsmith, Roman M. Sheremeta Jan 2015

Status And The Demand For Visible Goods: Experimental Evidence On Conspicuous Consumption, David Clingingsmith, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

Some economists argue that consumption of publicly visible goods is driven by social status. Making a causal inference about this claim is difficult with observational data. We conduct an experiment in which we vary both whether a purchase of a physical product is publicly visible or kept private and whether the income used for purchase is linked to social status or randomly assigned. Making consumption choices visible leads to a large increase in demand when income is linked to status, but not otherwise. We investigate the characteristics that mediate this effect and estimate its impact on welfare.

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The Cognitive Basis Of Social Behavior: Cognitive Reflection Overrides Antisocial But Not Always Prosocial Motives, Brice Corgnet, Antonio M. Espín, Roberto Hérnan-Gonzalez Jan 2015

The Cognitive Basis Of Social Behavior: Cognitive Reflection Overrides Antisocial But Not Always Prosocial Motives, Brice Corgnet, Antonio M. Espín, Roberto Hérnan-Gonzalez

ESI Working Papers

Even though human social behavior has received considerable scientific attention in the last decades, its cognitive underpinnings are still poorly understood. Applying a dual-process framework to the study of social preferences, we show in two studies that individuals with a more reflective/deliberative cognitive style, as measured by scores on the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), are more likely to make choices consistent with “mild” altruism in simple non-strategic decisions. Such choices increase social welfare by increasing the other person’s payoff at very low or no cost for the individual. The choices of less reflective individuals (i.e. those who rely more heavily …

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Infant Mortality: Cross Section Study Of The United State, With Emphasis On Education, Daniel C. Sheets-Poling Dec 2014

Infant Mortality: Cross Section Study Of The United State, With Emphasis On Education, Daniel C. Sheets-Poling

Student Research – Stevenson Center

On the surface infant mortality is usually thought of as just a unfortunate part of life in what can happen to an individual family, but infant mortality is part of the factors that affect social capital, which can lead back to overall trust in a community. When that trust starts to wither within a community, economic activity will be affected as community members will not behave as they usually do within their given economic boundaries. While social capital is not solely affected by infant mortality, it does show what type of health status an area has. As a community, state, …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2014, Leonard Lardaro Dec 2014

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2014, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Sources Of Productivity Spillovers: Panel Data Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Peter H. Egger, Michaela Kesina Dec 2014

Sources Of Productivity Spillovers: Panel Data Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Peter H. Egger, Michaela Kesina

Center for Policy Research

This paper assesses sources of productivity spillovers in China's electric and electronic manufacturing industry using a rich panel data-set of 25,360 firms observed over the period 2004-2007. This industry is characterized by its important reliance on technology. In particular, the paper focuses on the role of other firms' productivity as well as productivity shifters in affecting own firm-level total factor productivity. In addition, this paper examines the possible difference between spillovers from foreign-owned units and from units which participate at global markets through exporting in comparison to domestically-owned and non-exporting units. We find evidence of stronger spillovers from exporting firms …

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Firm-Level Productivity Spillovers In China’S Chemical Industry: A Spatial Hausman-Taylor Approach, Peter H. Egger, Badi H. Baltagi, Michaela Kesina Dec 2014

Firm-Level Productivity Spillovers In China’S Chemical Industry: A Spatial Hausman-Taylor Approach, Peter H. Egger, Badi H. Baltagi, Michaela Kesina

Center for Policy Research

This paper assesses the role of intra-sectoral spillovers in total factor productivity across Chinese producers in the chemical industry. We use a rich panel data-set of 12,552 firms observed over the period 2004-2006 and model output by the firm as a function of skilled and unskilled labor, capital, materials, and total factor productivity, which is broadly defined. The latter is a composite of observable factors such as export market participation, foreign as well as public ownership, the extent of accumulated intangible assets, and unobservable total factor productivity. Despite the richness of our data-set, it suffers from the lack of time …

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Random Effects, Fixed Effects And Hausman’S Test For The Generalized Mixed Regressive Spatial Autoregressive Panel, Badi Baltagi, Long Liu Dec 2014

Random Effects, Fixed Effects And Hausman’S Test For The Generalized Mixed Regressive Spatial Autoregressive Panel, Badi Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper suggests random and fixed effects spatial two-stage least squares estimators for the generalized mixed regressive spatial autoregressive panel data model. This extends the generalized spatial panel model of Baltagi, Egger and Pfaffermayr (2013) by the inclusion of a spatial lag dependent variable. The estimation method utilizes the Generalized Moments method suggested by Kapoor, Kelejian, and Prucha (2007) for a spatial autoregressive panel data model. We derive the asymptotic distributions of these estimators and suggest a Hausman test a la Mutl and Pfaffermayr (2011) based on the difference between these estimators. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to investigate the …

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On Bias In The Estimation Of Structural Break Points, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu Dec 2014

On Bias In The Estimation Of Structural Break Points, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Based on the Girsanov theorem, this paper obtains the exact Önite sample distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break points in a continuous time model. The exact Önite sample theory suggests that, in empirically realistic situations, there is a strong Önite sample bias in the estimator of structural break points. This property is shared by least squares estimator of both the absolute structural break point and the fractional structural break point in discrete time models. A simulation-based method based on the indirect estimation approach is proposed to reduce the bias both in continuous time and discrete time models. …

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Structural Change Estimation In Time Series Regressions With Endogenous Variables, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su Dec 2014

Structural Change Estimation In Time Series Regressions With Endogenous Variables, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose to apply the group fused Lasso to estimate time series models with endogenous regressors and an unknown number of breaks. It can correctly determine the number of breaks and estimate the break dates asymptotically. Simulations and applications are given.

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Testing The Martingale Hypothesis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin Dec 2014

Testing The Martingale Hypothesis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose new tests of the martingale hypothesis based on generalized versions of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von Mises tests. The tests are distribution-free and allow for a weak drift in the null model. The methods do not require either smoothing parameters or bootstrap resampling for their implementation and so are well suited to practical work. The article develops limit theory for the tests under the null and shows that the tests are consistent against a wide class of nonlinear, nonmartingale processes. Simulations show that the tests have good finite sample properties in comparison with other tests particularly under conditional heteroscedasticity …

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A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala Nov 2014

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.

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Top Of The Order: Modeling The Optimal Locations Of Minor League Baseball Teams, W. Coleman Conley Nov 2014

Top Of The Order: Modeling The Optimal Locations Of Minor League Baseball Teams, W. Coleman Conley

Undergraduate Economic Review

Over the last twenty-five years, minor league baseball franchises have defined firm mobility. Revisiting the work of Michael C. Davis (2006), I construct a logistic regression model to predict which cities house minor league baseball teams. Six variables are tested for inclusion in the model, including population, income level, the number of major-league professional sports teams in a city, five-year population change, and distance from the closest professional team. Based on the model's predicted probabilities, cities are ranked in order of highest probability of having a team at each of the different levels from Class A to Class AAA.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2014, Leonard Lardaro Nov 2014

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- November 2014, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Norming Rates And Limit Theory For Some Time-Varying Coefficient Autoregressions, Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips Nov 2014

Norming Rates And Limit Theory For Some Time-Varying Coefficient Autoregressions, Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

A time-varying autoregression is considered with a similarity-based coefficient and possible drift. It is shown that the random-walk model has a natural interpretation as the leading term in a small-sigma expansion of a similarity model with an exponential similarity function as its AR coefficient. Consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters in this model is established, the behaviours of the score and Hessian functions are analysed and test statistics are suggested. A complete list is provided of the normalization rates required for the consistency proof and for the score and Hessian function standardization. A large family of unit …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2014, Leonard Lardaro Oct 2014

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- October 2014, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Bound Estimator Of Hiv Prevalence: Application To Malawi, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung Oct 2014

Bound Estimator Of Hiv Prevalence: Application To Malawi, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

To find lower and upper bounds of HIV prevalence in Malawi under mild and intuitive assumptions to assess the importance of the refusal issue in the estimation of HIV prevalence. Methods: We derive bounds based on the following two key assumptions: (i) Among those who have never taken an HIV test before, those who refuse to take an HIV test (hereafter “refusers”) have at least as much risk to be HIV positive as those who participate in the HIV test, and (ii) among the refusers, those who have a prior testing experience are at least as likely to be HIV …

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Additive Nonparametric Regression In The Presence Of Endogenous Regressors, Deniz Ozabaci, Daniel J. Henderson, Liangjun Su Oct 2014

Additive Nonparametric Regression In The Presence Of Endogenous Regressors, Deniz Ozabaci, Daniel J. Henderson, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this article we consider nonparametric estimation of a structural equation model under full additivity constraint. We propose estimators for both the conditional mean and gradient which are consistent, asymptotically normal, oracle efficient, and free from the curse of dimensionality. Monte Carlo simulations support the asymptotic developments. We employ a partially linear extension of our model to study the relationship between child care and cognitive outcomes. Some of our (average) results are consistent with the literature (e.g., negative returns to child care when mothers have higher levels of education). However, as our estimators allow for heterogeneity both across and within …

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A New Hedonic Regression For Real Estate Prices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Jiang Liang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Oct 2014

A New Hedonic Regression For Real Estate Prices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Jiang Liang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a new hedonic method for constructing a real estate price index that utilizes all transaction price information that encompasses both single-sale and repeat-sale properties. The new method is less prone to specification errors than standard hedonic methods and uses all available data. Like the Case-Shiller repeat-sales method, the new method has the advantage of being computationally efficient. In an empirical analysis of the methodology, we fit the model to all transaction prices for private residential property holdings in Singapore between Q1 1995 and Q2 2014, covering several periods of major price fluctuation and changes in government macro …

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An Economic Analysis Of Housing Market Instability And Affordability In China, You Wang Sep 2014

An Economic Analysis Of Housing Market Instability And Affordability In China, You Wang

Undergraduate Economic Review

Applying an intertemporal optimization model proposed by Aizenman and Marion (1991), this research quantifies instability in the Chinese housing market. Although the Chinese government established numerous real estate policies to ensure the stability of the housing market, the regression analyses indicate that housing policies had no significant impact on the stabilization of the Chinese housing market. Alternatively, macroeconomic factors are identified as significant explanatory variables to the instability of housing prices. In addition, this research computes the median multiple for major cities in China and provides an alternative means of investigating the abnormal housing price situation in China.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2014, Leonard Lardaro Sep 2014

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- September 2014, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Intraday Periodicity Adjustments Of Transaction Duration And Their Effects On High-Frequency Volatility Estimation, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yingjie Dong Sep 2014

Intraday Periodicity Adjustments Of Transaction Duration And Their Effects On High-Frequency Volatility Estimation, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yingjie Dong

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study two methods of adjusting for intraday periodicity of high-frequency financial data: the well-known Duration Adjustment (DA) method and the recently proposed Time Transformation (TT) method (Wu (2012)). We examine the effects of these adjustments on the estimation of intraday volatility using the Autoregressive Conditional Duration-Integrated Conditional Variance (ACD-ICV) method of Tse and Yang (2012). We find that daily volatility estimates are not sensitive to intraday periodicity adjustment. However, intraday volatility is found to have a weaker U-shaped volatility smile and a biased trough if intraday periodicity adjustment is not applied. In addition, adjustment taking account of trades with …

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Asymptotic Distribution And Finite-Sample Bias Correction Of Qml Estimators For Spatial Dependence Model, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang Sep 2014

Asymptotic Distribution And Finite-Sample Bias Correction Of Qml Estimators For Spatial Dependence Model, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In studying the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimators for the spatial linear regression models, much attention has been paid to the spatial lag dependence (SLD) model; little has been given to its companion, the spatial error dependence (SED) model. In particular, the effect of spatial dependence on the convergence rate of the QML estimators has not been formally studied, and methods for correcting finite-sample bias of the QML estimators have not been given. This paper fills in these gaps. Of the two, bias correction is particularly important to the application of this model. Contrary to the …

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Initial-Condition Free Estimation Of Fixed Effects Dynamic Panel Data Models, Zhenlin Yang Sep 2014

Initial-Condition Free Estimation Of Fixed Effects Dynamic Panel Data Models, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is well known that (quasi) MLE of dynamic panel data (DPD) models with short panels depends on the assumptions on the initial values; ignoring them or a wrong treatment of them will result in inconsistency or serious bias. This paper introduces a initial-condition free method for estimating the fixed-effects DPD models, through as simple modification of the quasi-score. An outer-product-of-gradients (OPG) method is also proposed for robust inference. The MLE of Hsiao, Pesaran and Tahmiscioglu (2002, Journal of Econometrics), where the initial observations are modeled, is extended to quasi MLE and an OPG method is proposed for robust inference. …

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Modified Qml Estimation Of Spatial Autoregressive Models With Unknown Heteroskedasticity And Nonnormality, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang Sep 2014

Modified Qml Estimation Of Spatial Autoregressive Models With Unknown Heteroskedasticity And Nonnormality, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In the presence of heteroskedasticity, Lin and Lee (2010) show that the quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimators of spatial autoregressive models (SAR) can be inconsistent as a ‘necessary’ condition for consistency can be violated, and thus propose robust GMM estimators for the model. In this paper, we first show that this condition may hold in many practical situations and when it does the regular QML estimators can be consistent.In cases where this condition is violated, we propose a modified QML estimation method robust against heteroskedasticity of unknown form. In both cases, asymptotic distributions of the estimators are derived, and methods …

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Testing Conditional Independence Via Empirical Likelihood, Liangjun Su, Halbert White Sep 2014

Testing Conditional Independence Via Empirical Likelihood, Liangjun Su, Halbert White

Research Collection School Of Economics

We construct two classes of smoothed empirical likelihood ratio tests for the conditional independence hypothesis by writing the null hypothesis as an infinite collection of conditional moment restrictions indexed by a nuisance parameter. One class is based on the CDF; another is based on smoother functions. We show that the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. We also show that the tests possess an asymptotic optimality property in terms of average power. Simulations suggest that the tests are well behaved in finite samples. Applications to some economic and financial time …

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Study On The Newbuilding Price Mechanism Of Capesize Bulkcarrier Based On The Econometric Theory, Yue Lei Aug 2014

Study On The Newbuilding Price Mechanism Of Capesize Bulkcarrier Based On The Econometric Theory, Yue Lei

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

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Determinants Of Traffic Fatalities In The U.S., Hanna Stapleton Aug 2014

Determinants Of Traffic Fatalities In The U.S., Hanna Stapleton

Journal of Undergraduate Research at Minnesota State University, Mankato

This paper investigates the determinants of motor vehicle fatalities in each of the 50 states in the U.S., along with the District of Columbia. Using a panel data set from 1994 to 2005, we analyze how the factors, such as safety belt laws, speed control, alcohol usage, fine, driving conditions and annual vehicle-miles of travel (VMT), affect the incidence of traffic fatalities. Econometric models are developed and the estimates are obtained from a general-to-specific specification search based upon all the diagnostic tests in order to increase the probability of selecting models which are statistically reliable. The empirical results show that …

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Willingness-To-Pay For Renewable Wind Energy: Differences In Preferences Between Demographic Groups, Carlton D. Reed, William H. Scott Aug 2014

Willingness-To-Pay For Renewable Wind Energy: Differences In Preferences Between Demographic Groups, Carlton D. Reed, William H. Scott

Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics at Colby

Many surveys have shown that public acceptance of wind energy is high in general; however there always seems to be concerns at the local level during the siting and permitting process. This shows that people understand that clean wind energy is an essential need, however people do not normally want to have turbines in their own community. This choice experiment determines which benefits people prefer and which trade-offs people are willing to make in order to host a wind farm in their community. The effectiveness of several attributes, and their respective ability to rid apathy and concerns about local wind …

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Individuals Willingness To Pay For Health And Wellness In The Built Environment, Max Pollinger Aug 2014

Individuals Willingness To Pay For Health And Wellness In The Built Environment, Max Pollinger

Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics at Colby

Improving biological sustainability through health and wellness improvements in the built environment is currently being applied to high-end real estate development in both the residential and commercial environment in the United States. However, the market for health and wellness extends well beyond the top income bracket. This study adopts a choice experiment (CE) approach to investigate individual’s willingness to pay (WTP) for health and wellness improvements within their homes. The results suggest that individuals value health as an inelastic good independent of income, and they are willing to pay significant premiums to ensure biological sustainability within their homes independent of …

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