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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

The Effect Of Per Capita Relief Spending On County Level Joblessness In The United States In 1937 & 1940, Mohammad S. Ahmed Feb 2019

The Effect Of Per Capita Relief Spending On County Level Joblessness In The United States In 1937 & 1940, Mohammad S. Ahmed

Theses and Dissertations

This paper uses the 1937 and 1940 county level census data to estimate what effect did additional per capita relief spending have on joblessness in the United States in 1937 and 1940. To account for endogeneity in relief spending and its unequal/non-random distribution, an instrumental variables approach is used. The results show that additional per capita relief spending lowered joblessness in the United States in both years: 1937 and 1940.

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Efficient Estimation Of Integrated Volatility Functionals Via Multi-Scale Jackknife, Jia Li, Yunxiao Liu, Dacheng. Xiu Feb 2019

Efficient Estimation Of Integrated Volatility Functionals Via Multi-Scale Jackknife, Jia Li, Yunxiao Liu, Dacheng. Xiu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose semiparametrically efficient estimators for general integrated volatility functionals of multivariate semimartingale processes. A plug-in method that uses nonparametric estimates of spot volatilities is known to induce high-order biases that need to be corrected to obey a central limit theorem. Such bias terms arise from boundary effects, the diffusive and jump movements of stochastic volatility and the sampling error from the nonparametric spot volatility estimation. We propose a novel jackknife method for bias correction. The jackknife estimator is simply formed as a linear combination of a few uncorrected estimators associated with different local window sizes used in the estimation …

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Shapes And Transitions Of The Interest Rate Term Structure, Biwei Chen Feb 2019

Shapes And Transitions Of The Interest Rate Term Structure, Biwei Chen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

I analyze different shapes of Treasury yield curves in order to better reflect and predict the U.S. economy. Since the late 1980s, macroeconomists have found that the slope of the yield curve predicts economic activity such as inflation, output growth, and recessions, but they have not fully examined the links between various shapes of yield curve and the macroeconomy. To fill the gap, I classify yield curve shapes with the U.S. Treasury yield data, detect the shape patterns over the business cycles, and map these shapes onto corresponding inflation and production states. Although the downward-sloping yield curve reliably predicts U.S. …

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Refusal Bias In Hiv Data From The Demographic And Health Surveys: Evaluation, Critique And Recommendations, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung Feb 2019

Refusal Bias In Hiv Data From The Demographic And Health Surveys: Evaluation, Critique And Recommendations, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Tomoki Fujii, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Non-response is a commonly encountered problem in many population-based surveys. Broadly speaking, non-response can be due to refusal or failure to contact the sample units. Although both types of non-response may lead to bias, there is much evidence to indicate that it is much easier to reduce the proportion of non-contacts than to do the same with refusals. In this article, we use data collected from a nationally-representative survey under the Demographic and Health Surveys program to study non-response due to refusals to HIV testing in Malawi. We review existing estimation methods and propose novel approaches to the estimation of …

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Asymptotic Theory For Estimating Drift Parameters In The Fractional Vasicek Model, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu Feb 2019

Asymptotic Theory For Estimating Drift Parameters In The Fractional Vasicek Model, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article develops an asymptotic theory for estimators of two parameters in the drift function in the fractional Vasicek model when a continuous record of observations is available. The fractional Vasicek model with long-range dependence is assumed to be driven by a fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter greater than or equal to one half. It is shown that, when the Hurst parameter is known, the asymptotic theory for the persistence parameter depends critically on its sign, corresponding asymptotically to the stationary case, the explosive case, and the null recurrent case. In all three cases, the least squares method …

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Empty Discarded Pack Data And The Prevalence Of Illicit Trade In Cigarettes In California, James Prieger Jan 2019

Empty Discarded Pack Data And The Prevalence Of Illicit Trade In Cigarettes In California, James Prieger

School of Public Policy Working Papers

Illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP) creates many harms including reduced tax revenues; damages to the economic interests of legitimate actors; funding for organized-crime and terrorist groups; negative effects of participation in illicit markets, such as violence and incarceration; and reduced effectiveness of smoking-reduction policies, leading to increased damage to health. To study the prevalence of tax avoidance and ITTP, we analyze a large, novel set of data from empty discarded pack (EDP) studies. In EDP studies, teams of researchers collect all cigarette packs discarded in publicly accessible spaces of selected neighborhoods. Packs are examined for the absence of local …

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Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss Jan 2019

Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss

ESI Working Papers

The theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange. However, endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money. We develop a “travelling game” to study the emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange, theoretically and experimentally. Players located on separate islands can either trade locally, or pay a cost to trade elsewhere, so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium. The former minimize trade costs through monetary exchange; the latter maximizes overall surplus through non-monetary exchange. Monetary trade emerges when coordination is problematic, while centralized trade emerges …

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The Attack And Defense Games, Roman Sheremeta Jan 2019

The Attack And Defense Games, Roman Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

The attack and defense game is a game in which an attacker (a group of attackers) has an incentive to revise the status quo and a defender (a group of defenders) wants to protect it. The asymmetry in objectives creates incompatible interests and results in a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium. However, this equilibrium could be heavily impacted by behavioral considerations.

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Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin Jan 2019

Improvements To Consumption Prediction: Machine Learning Methods And Novel Features, Ian Kinskey, Glenn Oswald, Charles Mccann, Travis Finch, Anthony Tanaydin

SMU Data Science Review

Current models for predicting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) employ statistical techniques and rely upon traditional economic features. We compare vector autoregression and random forest regression models using traditional economic features as inputs to predict PCE. Additionally, we develop novel features derived from the earnings call transcripts of publicly traded U.S. companies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. These new features reduce the mean square error (MSE) of the vector autoregression model by 7% and the random forest model by 23%. We find the random forest models outperformed the vector autoregression models, with a MSE reduction of 68%. We conclude the …

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A Bias Aggregation Theorem, Mark Schneider Jan 2019

A Bias Aggregation Theorem, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

In a market where some traders are rational (maximize expected utility) and others are systematically biased (deviate from expected utility due to some bias parameter, q), do equilibrium prices necessarily depend on q? In this note, focusing on the case where there is an aggregate and systematic bias in the population, we show that market prices can still be unbiased. Hence, we establish that systematically biased agents do not necessarily imply biased market prices. We show that the parametric model we use also predicts observed deviations from expected utility in laboratory and market environments.

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Cooperation Among Strangers With And Without A Monetary System, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari Jan 2019

Cooperation Among Strangers With And Without A Monetary System, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Human societies prosper when their members move beyond local exchange and cooperate with outsiders in the creation of wealth. Collaboration of this type presents formidable challenges because interaction is impersonal, reciprocity is unfeasible and trust cannot be easily established. Here we study this cooperation problem by modeling strategic interaction among strangers through an Intertemporal Exchange Game. The setup can be easily implemented in the laboratory to study a variety of cooperation-enhancing institutions. In particular, we study the role of a fiat monetary system by introducing intrinsically worthless tokens that can be offered in exchange for cooperation. The experiments show that …

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Are The Food Insecure More Likely To Be Obese?, Lisa Russo Jan 2019

Are The Food Insecure More Likely To Be Obese?, Lisa Russo

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the connections between food insecurity and obesity levels throughout the United States over three years (2011-2013). The causes of obesity are often not entirely a result of poor diet and exercise, but of the presence of food deserts in impoverished areas. Changes in income trends in recent years also the poor remain poor rather than experiencing upward mobility. This study builds on previous studies conducted both within the U.S. and internationally that found that food insecurity is a determinant of obesity rates. This study uses poverty as a proxy measurement for food insecurity at the state level, …

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The Effect Of Corruption On Foreign Direct Investment In Transition Economies: A Panel Data Study, Michael Chodziutko Jan 2019

The Effect Of Corruption On Foreign Direct Investment In Transition Economies: A Panel Data Study, Michael Chodziutko

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the FDI inflows into transition economies of Europe. The study incorporates a time series element to help see how investment has changed over time in this region. Corruption and economic conditions are what will be specifically studied in this model. Market conditions are the final independent variable present in this studied, used to try and understand how the market size can influence inflows. The results show that there is a negative relationship between corruption on FDI flows. It was also found that economic growth and integration into the world economy have a positive relationship in attracting foreign …

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The Burden Of Public Debt On The United Kingdom: Analyzed With Var Approach, Yuvraj Duggal Jan 2019

The Burden Of Public Debt On The United Kingdom: Analyzed With Var Approach, Yuvraj Duggal

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The study aims to find the relationship in between economic growth and public debt in the United Kingdom using a Vectoral Autoregression approach in between 1999 till 2017. The study aims to examine the impact of public debt on interest rates, inflation rates, Real GDP growth rate, and interest debt payments in the UK. The results show a positive and statistically significant impact of public debt on inflation rates and interest rates. It is also found that the variables affect each other as a consequence in the model and therefore public debt also influence the real GDP growth rates and …

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Estimation Of Multivariate Asset Models With Jumps, Angela Loregian, Laura Ballotta, Gianluca Gianluca Fusai, Marcos Fabricio Perez Jan 2019

Estimation Of Multivariate Asset Models With Jumps, Angela Loregian, Laura Ballotta, Gianluca Gianluca Fusai, Marcos Fabricio Perez

Business Faculty Publications

We propose a consistent and computationally efficient two-step methodology for the estimation of multidimensional non-Gaussian asset models built using Levy processes. The proposed framework allows for dependence between assets and different tail behaviors and jump structures for each asset. Our procedure can be applied to portfolios with a large number of assets as it is immune to estimation dimensionality problems. Simulations show good finite sample properties and significant efficiency gains. This method is especially relevant for risk management purposes such as, for example, the computation of portfolio Value at Risk and intra-horizon Value at Risk, as we show in detail …

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Corruption And South American Public Health Governance: A Panel Data Analysis, Richard Mydland Jan 2019

Corruption And South American Public Health Governance: A Panel Data Analysis, Richard Mydland

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates high income South American countries and their Corruption Perception Index ranking compared to their public health economic variables alongside other macroeconomic variables. The study takes into account that each country is different by means of economic nature due to geographic location. Countries with a natural resource curse are different from traditionalist economic countries. The model examines the implications of a corruption ranking along with health and macroeconomic data that is strongly correlated with decreasing or increasing returns to scale.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- January 2019, Leonard Lardaro Jan 2019

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- January 2019, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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The Glass-Cliff And Usa Politics: Are Women Set Up For Failure?, Amber Marin Jan 2019

The Glass-Cliff And Usa Politics: Are Women Set Up For Failure?, Amber Marin

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study investigates the hypothesis that the glass cliff exists in Senate races for the United States in 1998, 2004, 2010, and 2016. It compares the effects to anecdotal situations focusing on Brexit. The results of the study find validity in glass cliff hypothesis.

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Does Growth Have A Price Tag? Foreign Aid’S Effect On Economic Growth In Africa, Andrew Berghahn Jan 2019

Does Growth Have A Price Tag? Foreign Aid’S Effect On Economic Growth In Africa, Andrew Berghahn

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the linkage between Official Development Assistance (ODA) received by African countries and the growth of GDP per capita within those nations. This study uses fixed and random effects to explore to ascertain the effects of increasing the amount of ODA received in relation to the country’s GDP. The results from this analysis show that there is a clear negative impact on country’s GDP per capita as ODA increases in relation to total GDP.

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Step Away From Stepwise, Gary N. Smith Jan 2019

Step Away From Stepwise, Gary N. Smith

Pomona Economics

Stepwise regression is a popular data-mining tool that uses statistical significance to select the explanatory variables to be used in a multiple-regression model. A fundamental problem with stepwise regression is that some real explanatory variables that have causal effects on the dependent variable may happen to not be statistically significant, while nuisance variables may be coincidentally significant. As a result, the model may fit the data well in-sample, but do poorly out-of-sample. Many Big-Data researchers believe that, the larger the number of possible explanatory variables, the more useful is stepwise regression for selecting explanatory variables. The reality is that stepwise …

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How Improving Prison Systems In The United States Will Positively Impact The Economy, Jordan Laube Jan 2019

How Improving Prison Systems In The United States Will Positively Impact The Economy, Jordan Laube

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the causes of high recidivism in the United States and offers a solution to theoretically bring these numbers down. This study is compiled of data over the past twenty years (1998-2018) as there have been spikes in recidivism rates during this time period. Some of the independent variables that this paper will take into account are economic and labor market freedom, race, cost, sentence length, and prison population under discretionary review. A one percent increase in state economic freedom is associated with a 0.47 % decrease in parolee recidivism. The relationship is stronger and more statistically significant …

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Economic Growth As It Relates To Women’S Labor Force Participation In The Lac, John Esher Jan 2019

Economic Growth As It Relates To Women’S Labor Force Participation In The Lac, John Esher

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the dependence of economic growth in the LAC and the relationship between Women’s Labor Force Participation and growth in production and total GDP. This study is the incorporation of information and data from the LAC into a Solow Growth Model to examine the influence of participation on the GDP per capita of the region. Increases in GDP per capita are modeled by using the differences in current GDP per capita against the GDP after women’s participation is increase to the same level to men’s. The results show that if women were to actively participate in the labor …

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Esg Scores Impact On The Market Value Of The Stock, Michelle Quinn Jan 2019

Esg Scores Impact On The Market Value Of The Stock, Michelle Quinn

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the effects of the ESG scores on a firm’s stock valuation, using the Tobin’s Q ratio. This study will incorporate both the ESG index as a whole and the individual factors: environmental, social and governance to consider the firm’s corporate social responsibility. This model uses the Tobin’s Q measurement to evaluate if the stock is over or undervalued while including the size, risk, and development within the firm. The paper found that there is little significant evidence to prove that there is a relationship between the ESG scores and the valuation of the stock, but there is …

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Effects Of Private And Public Health Expenditure On Health Outcome, Hyungue Lim Jan 2019

Effects Of Private And Public Health Expenditure On Health Outcome, Hyungue Lim

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The current level of health spending in the U.S. is the highest in the world. However, the outcomes of the health spending are among the lowest for developed countries. Therefore, for policy development purpose, it is necessary to determine which direction of healthcare spending results in better output, private or public. This paper investigates the effect of private and public health expenditure on life expectancy, infant mortality at birth, and infant mortality under age 5 among 11 OECD countries. Hausman test is performed to confirm the fixed effects models. Fixed effects GLS and GMM are used for data analysis. We …

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What Is Driving Up Health Care Costs? Does Pollution Play A Role: Oecd Country Panel Data Analysis, Sean Gillis Jan 2019

What Is Driving Up Health Care Costs? Does Pollution Play A Role: Oecd Country Panel Data Analysis, Sean Gillis

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study investigates the rising health care costs among nine OECD nations from 1990 to 2014. A panel data analysis was conducted to analyze specific causes for these rises. Total health care expenditure is the dependent variable with carbon dioxide emissions being the main variable of interest. Analysis finds that the economy has grown faster than health care expenditures, and a negative relationship between CO2 emissions, elderly populations, urban population growth rates and health care expenditure.

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Causality Relationship Between Income Inequality And Life Satisfaction In European Countries: Does Income Inequality Affect Life Satisfaction?, Rodrigue Beleho Balemaken Jan 2019

Causality Relationship Between Income Inequality And Life Satisfaction In European Countries: Does Income Inequality Affect Life Satisfaction?, Rodrigue Beleho Balemaken

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the interaction between life satisfaction and income inequality in European nations from 2006 to 2016. The keys finding of the analysis and the results show that countries that promote collectivism tend to have people with higher life satisfaction than countries which promote individualism. In general, individuals prefer to live in a country where they have stable disposable income, freedom in the way they are thinking, trust in their government and policies, a healthy life expectancy, and social support and generosity from peers. With this in mind, it raises the question, “where does income inequality fit into this?” …

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Fdi & Crime In South America: A Panel Data Analysis, Casey Doyle Jan 2019

Fdi & Crime In South America: A Panel Data Analysis, Casey Doyle

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between flows of FDI into South America and how it affects crime and how crime affects FDI. The paper incorporates a fixed effects model within an FDI model to examine how flows of FDI from foreign countries into South America impact crime in these countries. This study will use ten countries from South America in a panel data set from 2010 to 2016 that have different FDI intakes and crime rates. This is so that a well-rounded picture can be seen.

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Salary Dispersion And Team Performance In Major League Baseball: A Quantile Regression Analysis, Shane Vyskocil Jan 2019

Salary Dispersion And Team Performance In Major League Baseball: A Quantile Regression Analysis, Shane Vyskocil

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between salary dispersion and team performance in Major League Baseball. Player salary data is collected to calculate each team’s annual Gini coefficient from 1998-2016, which is used to represent a team’s level of wage inequality in a given year. The study incorporates a fixed and random effects model, and distinguishes itself from previous research by employing multiple quantile regressions to analyze how the impact of salary dispersion differs depending on a team’s performance level. The results find that the fixed effects model is preferred, and that there is consistently a negative relationship between wage differentials …

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Factor Model Tests Of Long-Run Price Reversals In The U.S. Stock Market, Harrison Garrett Jan 2019

Factor Model Tests Of Long-Run Price Reversals In The U.S. Stock Market, Harrison Garrett

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates whether long-run price reversals persist in stocks that have significantly outperformed or underperformed the market. Consistent with previous studies, the results show that there are sizeable positive abnormal returns to a long-term contrarian strategy of investing in stocks with significant prior underperformance. However, these positive abnormal returns are driven by low-priced stocks, and stocks with very low market capitalizations. When the investment universe is narrowed to remove very small companies and lowpriced stocks, there is no longer a statistically significant return difference between portfolios of stocks with significant prior outperformance and significant prior underperformance.

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Determinants Of Life Expectancy In The Central African Republic, Taylor Rizzo Jan 2019

Determinants Of Life Expectancy In The Central African Republic, Taylor Rizzo

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the determinants of life expectancy in the Central African Republic. The study uses economic, social, and environmental factors to estimate a health production function. The study aims to offer suggestions on ways to target life expectancy as a method for increasing economic growth. The results show that the best way to increase longevity in the CAR and solve the mortality crisis are to increase sanitation facilities and regulation, solve the hunger/malnutrition problem, and to reduce the deadly spread of HIV. Aid was determined to be significant in improving the well-being of citizens in the CAR.

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