Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Nba Salaries: Assessing True Player Value, Michael Ghirardo

Statistics

This paper analyzes and calculates an advanced NBA statistic that is becoming more and more widely used in the NBA. The Adjusted plus-minus (APM) statistic measures a player’s contribution, independent of all other players on the court. The most appealing aspect to the APM is that it only attempts to capture how a team’s scoring margin changes with a particular player on and off the court. Scoring margin in basketball effects winning percentage greatly, so it only makes sense that players with high APM’s will increase their team’s scoring margin and, therefore, help win games. The APM statistic is not …

Augmentation Of Propensity Scores For Medical Records-Based Research, Mikel Aickin

COBRA Preprint Series

Therapeutic research based on electronic medical records suffers from the possibility of various kinds of confounding. Over the past 30 years, propensity scores have increasingly been used to try to reduce this possibility. In this article a gap is identified in the propensity score methodology, and it is proposed to augment traditional treatment-propensity scores with outcome-propensity scores, thereby removing all other aspects of common causes from the analysis of treatment effects.

A Robust Estimate For The Bifurcating Autoregressive Model With Application To Cell Lineage Data, Tamer M. E. Elbayoumi

Dissertations

The bifurcating autoregressive model (BAR) is commonly used to model binary tree data. One application for this model relates to cell lineage data in biology. The purpose of studying the cell lineage process is to know whether the observed correlations between related cells are due to similarities in the environmental, inherited effects, or a combination of both of them. Because outliers in this kind of data are quite common, the need for a robust estimation procedure is necessary. A weighted L1 (WL1) estimate for estimating the parameters of the BAR model is considered. When the weights are constant, the estimate …

Maternal Smoking, Weight Status And Preecalmpsia And Eclampsia Risk Among Women Living In San Bernardino County, Fiona Bedelia Lewis

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

Preeclampsia is defined as pregnancy-induced hypertension affecting between 2% and 8% of pregnancies and accounting for about 10-15% of maternal deaths worldwide. Eclampsia is defined as the occurrence of one or more episodes of seizures in a pregnant woman related only to a preeclampsia diagnosis. Preeclampsia, if poorly managed, can progress to eclampsia resulting in injury and death to both mother and infant. The etiology of preeclampsia is not completely understood. Oxidative stress leading to abnormal placenta development and endothelial dysfunction are thought to be key components in the biological mechanism of preeclampsia.

Modifiable risk factors include maternal body weight …

On The Derivation Of Estimators Of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (Fgt) Poverty Indices, Oyedeji I. Osowole, Adebayo T. Bamiduro

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Poverty analysis has relied heavily on data in summarized form and this has created dearth of knowledge on the statistical properties of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) poverty indices. This study derived estimators of FGT poverty indices from first principles in an attempt to provide an insight into some intrinsic characteristics of FGT indices. The estimators are found to be reasonably unbiased and consistent. The estimates of the indices obtained from the estimators are approximately 53%, 22% and 12% for the head count, poverty gap and square poverty gap indices. From the conventional method, the estimates are approximately 52%, 21% and 11% respectively. …

Measuring Technical Efficiency Of Wireless And Wired Technologies In Nigeria Cyber Cafés, Sule Magaji, Eke I. Chukwuemeka

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examined the technical efficiency (TE) of two different remote internet access methods, wireless and wired in Nigeria using the stochastic frontier production function analysis. Primary data were obtained through the use of a set of questionnaire from four hundred and fifty representative samples of cyber café operators. The results show that in Nigeria, in spite of the acclaimed superiority of wireless technologies internationally, wired technology (within the context of Nigeria’s socio-economic constraints) is (still) more efficient technically with mean technical efficient indices of 0.914 and 0.797 respectively. The analysis also suggests that age and years of education of …

Monetary Policy Rule: A Broad Monetary Conditions Index For Nigeria, Yaaba N. Baba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

To determine the relative importance of both the domestic and external influences on monetary policy formulation, this paper constructs a broad monetary conditions index for Nigeria. It brings together the three key channels of monetary transmission, namely interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels. The result gives dominance to exchange rate channel, followed by credit channel and interest rate channel. The resultant monetary conditions index traces fairly well the policy direction of the Central Bank of Nigeria for the studied period, hence can serve as an adequate gauge of monetary policy stance of the Bank.

Effect Of Monetary-Fiscal Policies Interaction On Price And Output Growth In Nigeria, Musa Yakubu, Asar K. Barfour, Shehu U. Gulumbe

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary-fiscal policies interaction on price and output growth in Nigeria. The dynamic correlations of variables have been captured by the analyses of impulse response and variance decomposition. From innovation analyses, the results suggest that the policy variables money supply and government revenue have more positive impact on price and economic growth in Nigeria specifically in the long run, thus some time with lag. Although monetary and fiscal policy variables have a dominant effect on economic activity, it is clear from this study that economic activity is dominated by its own dynamics in most of …

The Relationship Between Domestic Savings And Investment: The Feldstein-Horioka Test Using Nigerian Data, Inuwa Nasiru, Usman M. Haruna

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study explores the relationship between savings and investment in Nigeria during the period 1980-2011. Unlike previous studies, this study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to test for long run relationship. The short-run dynamics are also captured from error correction model (ECM).The results of the Bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between savings and investment. This result is consistent with a number of earlier studies reviewed in the literature that found saving and investment to be cointegrated in the long run. The results also support the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) hypothesis that postulates low capital …

Exchange–Rates Volatility In Nigeria: Application Of Garch Models With Exogenous Break, Bala A. Dahiru, Joseph O. Asemota

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines exchange–rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange–rate return series from 1985:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/US dollar return and from 2004:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/British Pounds and Naira/Euro returns. The study compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break in respect of the US dollar rates with exogenously determined break points. Our results reveal presence of volatility in the three currencies and equally indicate that most of the asymmetric models rejected the existence of a leverage effect except for models with volatility break. Evaluating the models through standard information criteria, volatility persistence and the log likelihood …

The Role Of Central Bank Of Nigeria’S Analytical Balance Sheet And Monetary Survey In Monetary Policy Implementation, Sani I. Doguwa, Sunday N. Essien

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the significance of Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary aggregates in the implementation of monetary policy. The Analytical Balance Sheet and monetary survey are shown to be useful tools in the analysis of monetary and credit developments in the economy. It also discusses the role of the aggregates in monetary policy implementation through the adjusted money multiplier, which explains how policy actions of the CBN influence the broad money supply. Finally, the paper attempts to estimate the Taylor-type monetary policy reaction function for Nigeria using the monetary policy rate and reserve money since December 2006 when the …

Session 4-2-A: Taking The Disorder Out Of Gambling Disorder, Denise F. Quirk, Colin M. Hodgen

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

DSM‐5 Gambling Disorder

A. Persistent and recurrent problematic gambling behavior leading to clinically significant impairment or distress, as indicated by four (or more) of the following in a 12‐month period:

A. Persistent and recurrent maladaptive gambling behavior as indicated by five (or more) of the following:

Session 4-2-C: Dissociating The Roles Of Delay And Probability Discounting In Gambling Behavior, Will Shead, Emad Talisman

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Now or Later?

How would you like a gift?

Now vs. 1 week

Rewards now are worth more than later

- Delayed rewards are discounted

Session 4-1-D: The Experience Of Lotto 6/49 And The Capacity To Trust: Elements For An Anthropology Of Gambling, Jocelyn Gadbois

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Anthropologists study Lotto 6/49 as an experience.

Lévy-Bruhl tries to compare the magical beliefs of serious gamblers with the magical beliefs of individuals he refers to as the ‘‘primitives’’ (1924).

After that, Henslin studied the superstitions of St.Louis taxi drivers who play craps during their work breaks and compared them to Skinner’s pigeon (1967).

I wanted in my thesis to help anthropology to reconstruct lost knowledge regarding gambling and beliefs about magic in capitalist society.

Session 4-1-C: Social Media Gambling Games: Impact On Young People, Sally Gainsbury, Jeffrey L. Derevensky

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Key concerns for youth

Normalisation & positive impressions of gambling

Misrepresenting the odds of winning

Encouraging transition to real money gambling

Development of problems

Session 4-1-A: The Problem Gambling Center, Robert Hunter

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Provides information and statistics on the Problem Gambling Center.

Session 4-1-B: Casino Legalization As An Evolutionary Game -- Who Will Be The Next?, Miao He

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

For the community/governor who has a strong preposition to casino gaming (e.g., gambler, religious group), his/her motivation to participate/accept casino legalization is

∆P_AE_A+t_A>c_î and ∆P_B(R_B+E_B)+t_B>c_Ĵ

What’s the motivation for the other community/governors who are neutral to casino gaming?

How the casino legalization process evolved and finally reached the equilibrium state?

Session 4-1-D: The Ant And The Grasshopper: Western Casino Operators In Macau And Singapore, Sudhir Kale

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Objectives

Understand the impact of market conditions and managerial orientation on employee satisfaction, organizational identification, and service quality in Macau/ Singapore Casino Industry.

Highlight long-term adverse impact of poor service quality on market share and profitability.

Provide guidelines for action.

Discovering Exoplanets Through Hidden Markov Model Analysis, Jon Drobny

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Research Publications

The goal for the project is to develop a Hidden Markov Model for the detection and characterization of extrasolar planets through the analysis of light curves.

Assessing Methods For Assigning Snps To Genes In Gene-Based Tests Of Association Using Common Variants, Ashley Petersen, Carolina Alvarez, Scott Declaire, Nathan L. Tintle

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

Gene-based tests of association are frequently applied to common SNPs (MAF>5%) as an alternative to single-marker tests. In this analysis we conduct a variety of simulation studies applied to five popular gene-based tests investigating general trends related to their performance in realistic situations. In particular, we focus on the impact of non-causal SNPs and a variety of LD structures on the behavior of these tests. Ultimately, we find that non-causal SNPs can significantly impact the power of all gene-based tests. On average, we find that the “noise” from 6–12 non-causal SNPs will cancel out the “signal” of one causal …