Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Session 2-3-A: Considerations For Implementing Self-Assessment In Online Gambling Platforms, Michelle Nogueira, Sylvie Smith, Chris Perlman, Suzanne Rath

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Research Goals

Review problem gambling self-assessment tools for use on an internet platform.

Explore how self-assessment tools may be promoted to increase uptake.

Session 2-3-G: The Consumption Screen For Problem Gambling (Cspg): Why A Penchant For Big Macs May Predict Appetites For Gambling, Matthew Rockloff, Matthew Browne Browne

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Evidence for a common underlying trait: “Consumptiveness”

Consumptiveness: “A persistent orientation towards acquiring and using resources in excess of a proper accounting of their costs and benefits - resulting in harm.”

simple behaviors that result in immediate, sensation-oriented rewards

• alcohol, caffeine, smoking, illicit drugs, energy-rich foods (including salt)
• Gambling

Session 2-3-C: Adolescent Slot Machines Players: Experiences, Motivation And Cognitive Distortions, Neven Ricijas Phd, Dora Dodig, Valentina Kranzelic, Aleksandra Huic

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Aims of this research

1. to explore how often high-schools students play slot machines

2. to explore how often adolescent slot machine players play other games of chance

3. to explore their main motivation and beliefs related with gambling

4. to explore their gambling experiences and behavioral patterns

Session 2-3-F: Gaming Applications Of A Forgotten Distribution, Rohan J. Dalpatadu, Ashok K. Singh

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

The bonus game has become a very important part of the slot machine, as indicated by a large number of patent applications and patents (Bennett, 2000; Slomiany and Grupp, 2000; Vancurra, 2000; Baerlocher et al, 2002; Jaffe et al, 2002; Cannon and Donovan, 2003; Dickerson, 2005). Therefore, probability distributions suitable for developing games are very much in need. In this study, we illustrate how a forgotten discrete probability distribution, viz. the negative hypergeometric distribution, can be used to develop bonus games for slot machines, and also to analyze existing bonus games. The mean and the variance for this distribution …

Session 2-2-E: Slots Are To Las Vegas As Baccarat Is To Macau: A Game Analysis, Arthur Sai-Wai Wong

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Money is reeling in the casinos in Las Vegas, while chips are rolling in the casinos in Macau. These two different phrases exactly symbolize the ways how these two different gaming jurisdictions make their prosperity.

There are several reels in the slot machines and as they are spun thousands and millions of times…money reels in, it creates the profit for the casinos in Las Vegas.

Baccarat players wager dead chips in the VIP rooms rolling thousands and millions of times…money rolls in, it creates the profit for the casinos in Macau.

Session 2-2-A: Effectiveness Of Brief Interventions For Problem Gambling: A Randomized Controlled Trial, Max Abbott

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

Problem gambling a significant public health and social issue

Significant investment in publicly funded intervention services (Helpline, face-to-face counselling)

No formal evaluation of effectiveness, in general or with specific groups

Session 2-2-F: Combining Forecasts To Predict The Outcome Of Horseraces, Stefan Lessmann, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie E.V. Johnson, Tiejun Ma, Chung-Ching Tai

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A variety of methods are often employed to forecast the outcome of sports events and to shed light upon the factors that influence contestants’ winning prospects. We explore the potential of combining forecasts to improve the accuracy of sports event prediction. Successful combination usually involves accurate and diverse individual predictions. Further, to accurately predict the outcome of sports events it is important to effectively account for the intensity of rivalry among contestants. Consequently, we develop modeling procedures and practices for addressing these challenges: First, in order to construct a large and diverse library of base models, we employ a range …

Session 2-2-F: Guides To Beating The Spreads In Mlb, Nba And Nfl Games, William S. Mallios, R. R. Mallios

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

This guide provides information and statistics for sports' gambling.

Session 2-2-E: The Growth Trends In Macau’S Gambling Industy: A Scenario Analysis, Zhonglu Zeng

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Macau’s Gambling Industry: A Brief Review

Macau’s gambling industry has experienced tremendous growth in the past 27 years. In 1985, the gambling revenue was only US$0.23 billion; in 2012, the figure reached US$38 billion. The compound annual growth rate is 22%.

Mid-Morning Break And Poster Sessions: A Comparative Analysis Of Design And Motivation In Slot Machines And Video Games, Daniel Sahl

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

The slot machines of today reflect an impressive design feat: translating cold win/loss probability into an unpredictable, whimsical, and engaging experience. A successful spin offers more than a quick payout, it’s an opportunity to experience hidden secrets within the machine: creative bonus games, rich animation and movie clips, even the chance to play simultaneously with other players on linked machines. Many of these characteristics are similar to design and gameplay elements of video games. Separate research into both slots and video games often reflect similar questions about design, motivation for play and addiction. This poster presents a visual and …

Mid-Morning Break And Poster Sessions: Comorbidity Among Pathological Gamblers Seeking Treatment, Daniela Gonzalez-Sicilia, Louise Nadeau

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Context of the study

Pathological gambling prevalence in the general population: United States 0.42% (Petry et al., 2005), Canada 0.5% (Rush et al., 2008), Quebec 0.7% (Kairouz et al., 2011)

Epidemiological surveys (i.e. NESARC) indicate that pathological gambling is usually accompanied by other comorbid disorders, such as: Alcohol and drug abuse (prevalence of 25 and 27%, respectively), alcohol and drug dependence (48 and 11%), mood disorders (50%), anxiety disorders (41%), personality disorders (61%). (Petry et al., 2005)

The comorbidity found in clinical samples is usually higher than that in the general population because it is more likely for a person …

Mid-Morning Break And Poster Sessions: Survey Of Internet User’S Intentions About Gambling On A Legal Online Site, Emilie Vezina, Serge Sevigny, Christian Jacques, Isabelle Beaudoin, Isabelle Giroux

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

While many governments are considering the option of legalizing online gambling, mental health professionals and public health advocates worry that it will increase the number of problem gamblers. Results of the survey show that 3% of the sample, composed of 1009 Internet users, intended to gamble real money on the new online legal site, 6% would gamble without money, and 5% would visit the new site without gambling. Nearly 45% of those who intended to visit the legal gambling site were Internet non-gamblers in the last year. Half of online gamblers intended to gamble on the new legal site. Also, …

Mid-Morning Break And Poster Sessions: Family Gambling And Its Connection To Intergenerational Family Relationship Building, Melissa M. Sleightholm, Joan E. Norris, Joseph Tindale

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

Most research has viewed gambling as an individual activity and very little research has been devoted to the impacts of family gambling.

Bengtson and Roberts (1991) viewed intergenerational family solidarity as a comprehensive construct consisting of six components of solidarity. Affectual, Associational, and Functional solidarities, can be adapted to a gambling context.

The three family solidarity dimensions of affection, association, and function are the core components to family solidarity (Hogerbrugge & Komter, 2012).

Session 2-1-E: Betting Market Efficiency Implications Of Different Structures: Bookmakers Vs. Exchanges, David Mcdonald, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, John Peirson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Outline

(i) Quick definition of market efficiency

(ii) Theoretical models lead to general predictions…

(iii) ...which lead to specific predictions about betting markets

(iv) Results of testing the predictions using real betting market data

(v) Implications and conclusion

Session 2-1-A: A Longitudinal Study Of Alberta Electronic Machine Gamblers, Garry Smith, Nady El-Guebaly, David Casey, David Hodgins, Rob Williams, Don Schopflocher

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Outline of the LLLP

What is the LLLP?

Launched in 2006 the LLLP is a five age cohort, four data collection wave longitudinal study that examines the incidence and determinants of gambling and problem gambling. The study was guided by four broad research questions:

1.What are the normal patterns of continuity and discontinuity in gambling and problem gambling behavior?

2.What bio-psychological variables and behavior patterns are most predictive of current and future responsible and problem gambling?

3.Are there distinct sub-groupings of gamblers and problem gamblers with different trajectories and predictors?

4.What etiological model of problem gambling is best supported by …

Session 2-1-E: Toward An Understanding Of Price Movements In Betting Markets: Profitable Trading Against The Herd, Johnnie E.V. Johnson, Ming-Chien Sung, David C.J. Mcdonald

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Efficient Market Hypothesis

Markets for speculative assets always fully incorporate relevant information in prices

Herding

Participants neglect private info, adjust actionsmore representative of previous price movements

Effect

Price volatility in excess of variations in fundament d informationBubbles, crashes and bank runs

Session 2-1-B: Gaming Regulators Africa, Linda E. De Vries

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary school education

Goal 3: Promote gender equity and empower women

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Goal 5: Stimulate entrepreneurship (SMME; development)

Session 2-1-B: A Mandate For Business Leadership: The Case Of Regulated Gambling In South Africa, Linda E. De Vries

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

South African agenda - shaped by developmental agenda

Comply with global movement on environmental issues

Global Economic melt down

Political wide spread change – 1994-2013

Strong philosophical orientation i.e. cost/benefit vs. tangible /intangible costs/benefits consumption model (De Vries- 1991)

Caution on becoming a gambling dependant nation

Purpose to legalise but not aggressive - consumption model (NGB Act 1996 /amended NGB Act 2004)

Private enterprise be allowed within tight regulatory framework

National lottery- good causes - aggressive –state benefit (NLB Act 2001) Normalisation of society with shift in priorities of the democracy

New formulations of Economic black EMPOWERMENT such as BRICS …

Session 2-1-C: Gambling Distortions And The Brain Reward System, Luke Clark

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Impulsive choice in PG as possible index of vmPFC dysfunction

Functional imaging of gambling near-misses

Gambling distortions following brain injury (ventromedial PFC vs insula damage)

Iterative Statistical Verification Of Probabilistic Plans, Colin M. Potts

Lawrence University Honors Projects

Artificial intelligence seeks to create intelligent agents. An agent can be anything: an autopilot, a self-driving car, a robot, a person, or even an anti-virus system. While the current state-of-the-art may not achieve intelligence (a rather dubious thing to quantify) it certainly achieves a sense of autonomy. A key aspect of an autonomous system is its ability to maintain and guarantee safety—defined as avoiding some set of undesired outcomes. The piece of software responsible for this is called a planner, which is essentially an automated problem solver. An advantage computer planners have over humans is their ability to consider and …