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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Product Warranties And Double Moral Hazard, Russell Cooper, Thomas W. Ross Aug 1984

Product Warranties And Double Moral Hazard, Russell Cooper, Thomas W. Ross

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper explores a model of warranties in which moral hazard problems play a key role. The goal is to understand the important characteristics of warranties including their provision of incomplete insurance and the relationship between product quality and coverage. We analyze a model in which buyers and sellers take actions which affect a product’s performance. Since these actions are not cooperatively determined, an incentives problem arises. We characterize the optimal warranty contract and undertake comparative statics to determine the predicted correlation of warranty coverage and product quality.


Stock Prices And Social Dynamics, Robert J. Shiller Aug 1984

Stock Prices And Social Dynamics, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The empirical evidence that is widely interpreted as supporting the efficient markets theory in finance actually does not rule out the possibility that changing fashions or fads among investors have an important influence on prices in financial markets. A model of the impact of such fashions on prices is proposed and used in an exploratory data analysis of the aggregate United States Stock Market in the 20th century.


I And First And Second Scenarios (A Sensitivity Analysis), Paul Bracken, Moshe Haviv, Martin Shubik, Ulrich Tulowitzki Aug 1984

I And First And Second Scenarios (A Sensitivity Analysis), Paul Bracken, Moshe Haviv, Martin Shubik, Ulrich Tulowitzki

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Empirical Tests Of The Rationality Of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach, William D. Nordhaus, Steven N. Durlauf Aug 1984

Empirical Tests Of The Rationality Of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach, William D. Nordhaus, Steven N. Durlauf

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Empirical Tests Of The Rationality Of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach, William D. Nordhaus, Steven N. Durlauf Aug 1984

Empirical Tests Of The Rationality Of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach, William D. Nordhaus, Steven N. Durlauf

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the behavior of 4 major forecasters and the forecast consensus. We employ a new technique of “Fixed Horizon” models. This technique analyzes the sequence of adjustments of a series of forecasts of the same event. We first demonstrate that these forecast adjustment sequences should fluctuate randomly under rationality. We then examine approximately 1200 forecast adjustments over the 1978-1982 period to examine the statistical properties of forecast adjustments. The evidence clearly demonstrates that there are marked and significant elements of statistical rationality for these major forecasters. Information shocks are processed slowly. The pattern of adjustments is consistent with …


General Equilibrium With Wage Rigidities: An Application To Belgium, Victor Ginsburgh, Ludo Van Der Heyden Aug 1984

General Equilibrium With Wage Rigidities: An Application To Belgium, Victor Ginsburgh, Ludo Van Der Heyden

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper concerns an application to the Belgian economy of general equilibrium analysis in the presence of downward real wage rigidities. The model aims at explaining the short-run impact of recent income and exchange policies upon employment in Belgium. Mathematical programming techniques are used to compute equilibria.


Farm Policy Decisions--What Do South Dakota Farmers Think?, Larry Janssen, Mark Edelman Aug 1984

Farm Policy Decisions--What Do South Dakota Farmers Think?, Larry Janssen, Mark Edelman

Economics Commentator (1972- 2016)

No abstract provided.


Demand Response And The Reform Of Indirect Taxes In Pakistan, Ehtishaw Ahmad, Hing-Man Leung, Nicholas Stern Aug 1984

Demand Response And The Reform Of Indirect Taxes In Pakistan, Ehtishaw Ahmad, Hing-Man Leung, Nicholas Stern

Research Collection School Of Economics

The question of the appropriate tax rate for different commodities is important for policy making in a country like Pakistan. This involves not only revenue, which is an obvious and a major preoccupation of most governments, but also concerns the effects of tax changes on households in various circumstances, together with production decisions in many sectors of the economy. In this paper we shall be concerned with a preliminary evaluation of the Pakistan indirect tax system. We shall examine in further work, the analysis of direct taxes, the balance between direct and indirect taxes as well as the effects of …


The Many Approaches To The Study Of Monopolistic Competition, Martin Shubik Aug 1984

The Many Approaches To The Study Of Monopolistic Competition, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

It is suggested here that there are many highly different purposes for the study and application of theories of oligopolistic competition, monopolistic competition, and allied topics. This paper sets the different purposes and questions in context, then makes criticisms and suggestions as to where to go from here.


Plausible Outcomes For Games In Strategic Form, Martin Shubik Aug 1984

Plausible Outcomes For Games In Strategic Form, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This is the first projected series of papers on solutions to games in matrix and extensive form.


The Use Of Expected Future Variables In Macroeconometric Models, Ray C. Fair Aug 1984

The Use Of Expected Future Variables In Macroeconometric Models, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A more sophisticated expectational hypothesis than is traditionally used in the specification of macroeconometric models is tested in this paper. Economic agents are assumed to use a vector of variables Z t in forming their expectations for periods t + 1 and beyond. These expectations may or may not be rational in the Muth sense. The results provide some evidence in favor of the more sophisticated hypothesis, but they are not strong enough to allow much weight to be put on the hypothesis as yet. The evidence in favor of the hypothesis is strongest for households’ response to future wages …


Stock Prices And Social Dynamics, Robert J. Shiller Aug 1984

Stock Prices And Social Dynamics, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Process Evaluation Of The Implementation Of The Job Training Partnership Act: Phase 2. Sda Field Research Report, H. Allan Hunt Aug 1984

Process Evaluation Of The Implementation Of The Job Training Partnership Act: Phase 2. Sda Field Research Report, H. Allan Hunt

Reports

No abstract provided.


Farm Policy Decisions--What Do South Dakota Farmers Think?, Larry Janssen, Mark Edelman Jul 1984

Farm Policy Decisions--What Do South Dakota Farmers Think?, Larry Janssen, Mark Edelman

Economics Commentator (1972- 2016)

No abstract provided.


Prices, Employment, And Profit, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D., Pierro Ferri Jul 1984

Prices, Employment, And Profit, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D., Pierro Ferri

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

An original draft and a good copy of this article are also included.


Incentives In Manufacturing: The Carrot And The Stick, Frederic L. Pryor Jul 1984

Incentives In Manufacturing: The Carrot And The Stick, Frederic L. Pryor

Economics Faculty Works

No abstract provided.


Stability Comparisons Of Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews Jul 1984

Stability Comparisons Of Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A property of estimators called stability is investigated in this paper. The stability of an estimator is a measure of the magnitude of the affect of any single observation in the sample on the realized value of the estimator. High stability often is desirable for robustness against misspecification and against highly variable observations. Stabilities are determined and compared for a wide variety of estimators and econometric models. Estimators considered include: least squares, maximum likelihood (including both LIML and FIML), instrumental variables, M-, and multi-stage estimators such as tow and three stage least squares, Zellner’s feasible Aikten estimator of the multivariate …


Microeconomics, Norms, And Rationality, Alexander J. Field Jul 1984

Microeconomics, Norms, And Rationality, Alexander J. Field

Economics

A divergence of views among microeconomists in general and game theorists in particular regarding the explanatory objectives of microeconomic theory has become apparent in recent years. This divergence concerns, most fundamentally, the question whether institutions, legal or customary rules, or social norms are to be classified among the endogenous as opposed to the exogenous variables in the framework of microeconomic analysis. 1 The majority of economists are probably agnostic or ambivalent on this question, not having confronted, or not having had to confront, the issue in their own work. Many have sidestepped it by treating institutions as immutable or by …


The Revival Of The Rust Belt, Murray L. Weidenbaum, Michael J. Athey Jul 1984

The Revival Of The Rust Belt, Murray L. Weidenbaum, Michael J. Athey

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

The author questions whether there really is a decline in low-tech industries, and shows a comparison in their growth alongside that of high-tech industries.


I.G. Farben's Petro-Chemical Plant And Concentration Camp At Auschwitz, Robert Simon Yavner Jul 1984

I.G. Farben's Petro-Chemical Plant And Concentration Camp At Auschwitz, Robert Simon Yavner

History Theses & Dissertations

This study examines the history of the petrochemical plant and concentration camp run by I.G. Farbenindustrie (the dominant German chemical company during World War II) at Auschwitz to decide upon the degree of Farben’s involvement with Hitler and the Holocaust. The study traces the construction of the plant to determine Farben's participation at Auschwitz. The main sources consulted were the transcripts of the postwar Farben trial at Nuremberg along with eyewitness accounts of members of the prosecution staff. Based on the court's verdict, one might conclude that I.G. Farben operated in a state of coercion during the war and could …


High Tech Wage Survey _July 1984, New Mexico Employment Security Department Jul 1984

High Tech Wage Survey _July 1984, New Mexico Employment Security Department

Historic Publications

ALBUQUERQUE HIGH TECH WAGE SURVEY.


The New Mexico Employment Security Dept_July 1984, New Mexico Employment Security Department Jul 1984

The New Mexico Employment Security Dept_July 1984, New Mexico Employment Security Department

Historic Publications

ALBUQUERQUE "HIGH TECH" WAGE SURVEY - JULY 1984.


On The Empirical Production Function, Mahmoud A Gamal Jul 1984

On The Empirical Production Function, Mahmoud A Gamal

Archived Theses and Dissertations

No abstract provided.


Basic Needs, Inflation, And The Poor Of Egypt, 1970-1980, Myrette Ahmed El Sokkari Jul 1984

Basic Needs, Inflation, And The Poor Of Egypt, 1970-1980, Myrette Ahmed El Sokkari

Faculty Books

The aim of the study is to see how the poor have fared over the 1970's: to evaluate whether their welfare improved or worsened. The cost of the private consumption goods will be estimated over the period of 1970-1982 using detailed information on the cost of food, clothing, and shelter for both urban and rural areas.


Agricultural Credit: Turmoil And Possible Alternatives, Brian H. Schmiesing Jun 1984

Agricultural Credit: Turmoil And Possible Alternatives, Brian H. Schmiesing

Economics Commentator (1972- 2016)

No abstract provided.


What "Continental Illinois" Is Telling Us, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. Jun 1984

What "Continental Illinois" Is Telling Us, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

No abstract provided.


Job Discrimination, Market Forces And The Invisibility Hypothesis, Paul R. Milgrom, Sharon Oster Jun 1984

Job Discrimination, Market Forces And The Invisibility Hypothesis, Paul R. Milgrom, Sharon Oster

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The Invisibility Hypothesis holds that the job skills of disadvantaged workers are not easily discovered by potential new employers, but that promotion enhances visibility and alleviates this problem. Then, at a competitive labor market equilibrium, firms profit by hiding talented disadvantaged workers in low level jobs. Consequently, those workers are paid less on average and promoted less often than others with the same education and ability. As a result of the inefficient and discriminatory wage and promotion policies, disadvantaged workers experience lower returns to investments in human capital than other workers.


Job Discrimination, Market Forces And The Invisibility Hypothesis, Paul R. Milgrom, Sharon Oster Jun 1984

Job Discrimination, Market Forces And The Invisibility Hypothesis, Paul R. Milgrom, Sharon Oster

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The Invisibility Hypothesis holds that the job skills of disadvantaged workers are not easily observed by potential new employers, but that promotion enhances visibility and alleviates this problem. Then, at a competitive labor market equilibrium, disadvantaged workers will be paid less on average and promoted less often than other workers with the same education and ability, even if their employers are unprejudiced and know their workers’ abilities. As a result of the discriminatory wage and promotion policies, disadvantaged workers will experience lower returns to investments in human capital than other workers. An affirmative action program that eliminates discrimination and brings …


Price And Advertising Signals Of Product Quality, Paul R. Milgrom, John Roberts Jun 1984

Price And Advertising Signals Of Product Quality, Paul R. Milgrom, John Roberts

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We present a signalling model, based on ideas of Phillip Nelson, in which both the introductory price and the level of directly “uninformative” advertising or other dissipative marketing expenditures are choice variables and may be used as signals for the initially unobservable quality of a newly introduced experience good. Repeat purchases play a crucial role in our model.


Stability Comparisons Of Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews Jun 1984

Stability Comparisons Of Estimators, Donald W.K. Andrews

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper investigates a property of estimators called stability. The stability exponent of an estimator is defined to be a measure of the effect of any single observation in the sample on the realized value of the estimator. High stability is often desirable for robustness against misspecification and against highly variable observations. Stability exponents are determined and compared for a wide variety of estimators and econometric models. They are found to depend on the maximal moment exponent (i.e., the number of finite moments) of the estimator’s influence curve. Since it is possible often to construct estimators with specified influence curves, …