Economics Commons^™

Modeling Taiwanese Monetary Policy: Augmented Taylor And Mccallum Rules, Yu-Chi (Yunnie) Cheng

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines how price-based and quantity-based monetary frameworks explain the policy actions of the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) within the context of a trade-dependent, small open economy. Utilizing a comparative empirical analysis of Taylor and McCallum rules from 2000 to 2025, the research finds that Taylor rule’s superior fit is contingent upon the inclusion of the augmented variables, such as federal funds rate, Financial Stress Index, and sovereign credit premiums, revealing a policy stance that is deeply reactive to international financial conditions. In contrast, the McCallum rule demonstrates remarkable parsimony, explaining 45% of the variance …

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

Testing The Governance Premium: Board Gender Diversity And Crisis-Period Returns During The Pandemic, Rhea Kulkarni

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines whether board gender diversity predicts cumulative abnormal returns for S&P 1500 firms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Motivated by prior evidence linking board gender diversity to crisis-period stock performance and the broader question of whether governance quality is priced during periods of acute market stress, this study estimates cumulative abnormal returns across three economically distinct event windows covering the crash, recovery, and post-recovery periods using the Carhart (1997) four-factor model to test whether board composition translated into divergent outcomes across firms. The results fail to find evidence that board gender diversity predicts cumulative abnormal returns across any of …

An Examination Of Remittance Inflow Variation In Net-Emigration Countries, Andrew Rizko

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the structural and institutional determinants of remittance inflows in a panel of 40 net-emigration countries from 2000 to 2024. By restricting the sample to countries with negative average net migration, the analysis holds migration pressure constant and isolates the role of domestic conditions in explaining cross-country variation in remittance dependence. Using fixed effects and correlated random effects (Mundlak) estimators, I find that labor force participation is the most robust within-country determinant: a one percentage point increase is associated with approximately a 2.3 percent decline in remittance inflows, consistent with remittances functioning as a structural need in contexts …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

Essays On Election, Bianca Appel Kranzler

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on electoral accountability at the local and national levels. The first chapter focuses on judicial elections in Houston, while the last two chapters forecast the 2024 national election. This first chapter examines whether changes in local crime rates influence voter behavior in partisan judicial elections. Using precinct-level crime and election data from Houston, Texas, this study tests whether a quarterly increase in crime raises the probability that a voting precinct flips from a Democratic to a Republican majority in local district judge elections. A two-way fixed-effects model with precinct and year fixed effects is estimated across seven …

Bail Reform, Large Language Model Risk And Reasoning, William Wyatt

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation contains three studies. Each asks how rules or language change the choices people and machines make when outcomes are uncertain. The first study, written with Kiran John, evaluates California’s 2020 cashless bail reform. We use propensity score matching on arrestee records from the windows before and after implementation, and we test whether the shift away from cash bail produced any effect on subsequent offending. It did not. Matched comparisons yield small, statistically insignificant differences across every window we examined. That null result cuts against both sides of the public argument. The reform did not drive a spike in …

The Effect Of The Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion On The Risk Of Hospital Closure And Adolescent Hpv Immunization In Rural Counties, Juliette Des Rosiers

Scripps Senior Theses

From 2005 to 2025, over 200 rural hospitals shut their doors, often citing increased operational costs, staffing shortages, low patient volume, regulatory barriers, financial challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, and uncompensated care as common contributors to the closures. Rural patients are often referred by their primary care physician to a hospital for regular immunizations, since smaller clinics have less capacity to provide immunizations due to a shortage of pediatricians and limited vaccine stock. A crucial vaccine that is not required by schools and underutilized in rural areas is that against human papillomavirus (HPV), a virus that infects cutaneous and …

Improving Maternal Health: Investigating The Early Impacts Of Medicaid Coverage Of Doulas In Oregon, Miriam Akhmetshin

Scripps Senior Theses

While the U.S. spends more per-capita than any country on healthcare, we experience the worst maternal health outcomes of high-income nations. In addition to hefty healthcare bills, an overwhelming majority of mothers experience pregnancy-related health issues that decrease productivity and utility. Thus, it is critical to research cost-effective solutions that can improve maternal health and promote equitable outcomes. Doulas are trained non-medical professionals who support mothers and families before, during and after birth. As a growing body of medical literature points to the role of doulas in decreasing costly medical interventions, insurance companies have begun covering their services. In 2014, …

Medical And Recreational Cannabis In Colorado: Evidence From County-Level Sales And Medical Cards, Ethan Sattley

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Colorado’s cannabis market transitioned after recreational legalization by analyzing county-level medical card registrations and the medical share of cannabis sales from 2010–2020. Using an event-study design, I find that medical participation remained stable for several years after recreational sales began in 2014, but then declined sharply, by roughly 50–60 cards per 10,000 residents, about ten quarters after legalization. Using annual sales data, I show that the medical share of total cannabis revenue collapsed much more quickly, falling by more than half between 2014 and 2015 and converging near zero in most counties by the late 2010s. …

Determinants Of The U.S. Experience Economy: A Macroeconomic, Demographic, And Technological Analysis, 1984–2023, Chloe Ross

CMC Senior Theses

Pine and Gilmore et al. 1999 examine American consumers’ preferences for experiences over durable goods. Since then, there has been a multitude of research on the psychology behind this shift in consumption preferences, and there has been an abundance of media coverage of the new “experience economy.” This thesis goes beyond psychology and examines the macroeconomic, demographic, and technological determinants of experiential spending in the United States from 1984 to 2023. I use annual data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) and variables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), US …

Keeping America Ahead: The Global Chip Conundrum, Ethan Chen

CMC Senior Theses

Semiconductors underpin nearly every aspect of modern economic, military, and technological power. Yet while the United States pioneered chip innovation and design, it now heavily depends on foreign manufacturing, particularly Taiwan and the Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Company who produce more than 90% of the world’s leading edge chips. This thesis investigates how the U.S. lost its fabrication leadership, what risks its current dependence creates, and what strategies can most effectively restore domestic capacity and resilience in both the short term and long term. By going through historical analysis of industrial development, recent policy evaluation such as export controls and the …

Macroeconomic Resilience And Sentiment Dynamics In The Global Luxury Fashion Industry, Mehr Gupta

CMC Senior Theses

The global luxury fashion industry is often viewed as a sector where broad economic conditions intersect with individual spending behavior. Yet despite this common assumption, it remains unclear whether macroeconomic fluctuations meaningfully shape luxury firms’ financial performance. This thesis examines the relationship between four key macroeconomic indicators - consumer sentiment, disposable income, unemployment, and exchange rates - and firm-level quarterly revenue for twelve publicly listed luxury companies from the early 2000s through 2024. Firm financial data from S&P Capital IQ are matched with macroeconomic measures from the Federal Reserve (FRED), and the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects framework with firm …

Factors Correlated With State-Level Variation In Grocery Consumption Changes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sun Young Byun

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I employ a two-part empirical strategy to explore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on grocery consumption across U.S. states. First, I use the United States Department of Agriculture's Weekly Retail Food Sales data from 2018-2023 to estimate a time-series panel model. I use the results to test three hypotheses regarding state-level variation in consumption changes and impacts in the initial pandemic period, the remaining pandemic period, and the post-pandemic period. Second, I use the estimated state-level effects as dependent variables in cross-sectional regressions to test three hypotheses linking variation in state-level consumption patterns to economic, demographic, …

The Lipstick Effect Across Economic Crises: An Empirical Study Of Cosmetics And Luxury Spending From 2004 – 2023, Richard M. Sweeney Iii

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines whether consumers shift toward lower-cost beauty products during periods of economic uncertainty and whether this behavior moves with financial market volatility. Using household-level microdata and aggregate monthly expenditure data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Surveys (2004–2023), the study evaluates how cosmetics spending changes relative to jewelry across two major economic crises: the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Across both datasets, cosmetics consistently become a larger share of discretionary spending when economic conditions deteriorate, supporting the presence of a lipstick-effect pattern. At the macro level, cosmetics spending is generally inversely related to market …

The Tcja And Shareholder Payouts, Carson T. Bloom

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provided corporations an estimated $233 billion in tax savings, yet relatively little is known about how firms allocated this cash windfall. This study examines whether growth and mature firms differed in whether they used these tax savings to distribute dividends and repurchase shares. Using panel data on publicly traded North American firms from 2016–2019, I classify firms as either growth or mature based on their cash-flow patterns and estimate the effects of the TCJA on their behavior using a difference-in-differences design.

The results indicate that mature firms increased shareholder payouts significantly more …

Maternity Leave And Women’S Leadership In A Changing Work Environment: Global Evidence, Josefine Byström

CMC Senior Theses

Family leave policies play a central role in shaping women’s participation and advancement in the labor market. This study investigates whether the relationship between maternity leave duration and women’s labor outcomes has changed before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a cross-country panel spanning multiple years with fixed effects, this study examines two related outcomes: women’s labor force participation and representation in leadership. Prior to 2011, maternity leave duration displayed opposite non-linear patterns across these outcomes: an inverted U-shape for labor force participation, peaking at moderate leave lengths, and a U-shape for women’s leadership, which improved only at longer durations …

From Static Λ To Moving Penalties: Dynamic Regularization In Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice, Ariel Santiago

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis evaluates whether dynamically tuned weight penalties can improve high-dimensional mean-variance portfolio choice. Classical Markowitz portfolios perform poorly when the number of assets is large relative to the data, because small estimation errors in means and covariances can generate extreme, fragile allocations. A common remedy is to regularize the weights using L1 (lasso), L2 (ridge), or elastic-net penalties, but these are typically chosen once and held fixed. Using monthly excess returns on the 48 Fama-French industry portfolios from January 2010 to June 2025, this thesis compares penalized mean-variance and minimum-variance strategies under long-only and long-short constraints, with and without …

Esg And Misvaluation In U.S. Equity Markets, Rohaan Bhojwani

CMC Senior Theses

Existing research has produced conflicting conclusions on whether environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics are efficiently priced in equity markets. While some studies argue that ESG performance improves firm value through lower risk and stronger fundamentals, others suggest that investor demand has inflated valuations in the past beyond intrinsic worth. This thesis examines whether ESG-driven valuation gaps represent justified pricing through firm fundamentals or systematic mispricing using Bartram and Grinblatt’s Agnostic Fundamental Analysis Framework (2018).

For this paper, I analyze the top 1000 U.S public firms by market value. I regress the market value on 19 accounting fundamentals for these …

The Economics Of The U.S. Student Loan Market And The Case For The Education Development Financial Institution, Ian Akers

CMC Senior Theses

The United States student loan market is shaped by a variety of market failures–credit constraints, positive externalities, behavioral frictions including myopia, debt aversion, and misperception–that together justify government intervention in the market. Yet the design of federal intervention is just as important as its existence. This thesis details the economic theory underpinning the market for student loans, evaluates three historical federal student loan programs (the Perkins Loan Program, the Federal Family Education Loan Program, and the Federal Direct Loan Program) through the lens of that theory. The thesis then proposes a novel institutional model as a targeted response to the …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Decomposing Carbon Intensity In U.S. Imports: Trade Composition Vs. Technological Change From 2000-2019, Alyssa K. Wong

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines whether the increasing share of U.S. manufactured imports from China between 2000 and 2019 affected the carbon intensity of U.S. consumption. Bilateral trade data from BACI are combined with emissions data from the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output framework to construct a measure of carbon intensity defined as emissions embodied per dollar of imports at a country level. Changes over time are decomposed into composition effects, driven by shifts in import shares, and technique effects, driven by changes in emissions intensity within exporting countries. Carbon intensity declines substantially over the period. While increased imports from China would have raised …

Authoritarian Development & Political Economy Of East Asia: The Making Of South Korea’S Developmental Regime, Christopher J. Chung

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the historical evolution of South Korea's developmental trajectory during the Park Chung-hee era (1961-1979), a period that left an indelible mark on the country's political economy and industrial landscape. Rather than treating Park's regime as its own starting point, this thesis situates it within a longer historical arc beginning with Japanese colonial rule and continuing through Syngman Rhee's aid-dependent republic, arguing that Korea's developmental success was neither institutionally inevitable nor externally engineered, but the product of a historically specific and ideologically driven state-building project. Four primary questions guide this research: what historical conditions shaped the institutional landscape …

Ceo Linguistic Stress And Abnormal Stock Returns Evidence From S&P 500 Earnings Conference Calls, Yiqi Sun

CMC Senior Theses

Stress is pervasive among corporate executives, yet its effect on firms' future abnormal return remains largely unexplored. This paper examines whether CEO's Linguistic stress exhibited during earnings conference calls predicts future abnormal stock returns. I provided a Large Language Model (Claude Sonnet 4.6) psychology-backed prompts to analyze CEO stress from linguistic patterns in 7491 earnings call transcripts from 470 companies in the S&P 500 during 2020-2024. I found three main results. First, the CEO linguistic stress is negatively and significantly associated with the immediate market reaction, with a one-unit increase in stress score associated with a 0.9% decrease in the …

Does Immigration Enforcement Induce Legalization? Replicating And Extending The H-2b Evidence To Agricultural Guest Workers, Katherine E. Schwab

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether intensified interior immigration enforcement leads employers to increase demand for legal temporary foreign workers through the H-2 guest-worker programs. Using updated administrative data from the Office of Foreign Labor Certification, I first replicate the core findings of Amuedo-Dorantes, Arenas-Arroyo, and Schmidpeter (2021), who find that county-level enforcement significantly raises employer demand for H-2B non-agricultural workers, then apply the same empirical framework to H-2A, the agricultural equivalent.

My replication results are directionally consistent with the original study – the enforcement coefficient on H-2B demand is positive across specifications – though weaker in significance, reflecting routine vintage differences …

The Jamaica That Dreams: A Normative Application Of Developmental Theory, Tamoy Pitt

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines Jamaica’s persistent underdevelopment through Martha Nussbaum's normative application of the capabilities approach as per her conception in Creating Capabilities. Through this approach, the paper will argue that Jamaica’s underdevelopment is a result of the failure of its domestic institutions to provide all citizens with the substantive freedoms and capabilities necessary to live lives of dignity. Originally detailed by Amartya Sen in his book Development as Freedom, the capabilities approach posits freedom as both the means and ends to development while rejecting contemporary approaches to development such as GDP, Utilitarianism, or Rawlsian resource-based approaches as insufficient frameworks for …

Too Much Of A Good Thing? Generic Entry, Drug Prices, And The Innovation Tradeoff, Kiara Jacob

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines how the number of generic competitors affects generic drug prices and whether generic markets exhibit a competition threshold beyond which additional entry produces little further price reduction. Using monthly NADAC price data and FDA Orange Book manufacturer records, I construct a molecule-month panel of 17 molecules across four therapeutic classes from 2013 to 2023, restricted to generic price observations. Fixed-effects regressions show that generic competition is associated with substantial price declines: each additional generic manufacturer is associated with a 7.2 log-point reduction in average acquisition price. The main threshold specification shows that prices are approximately 49 percent …

Diplomatic Gaps And Global Finance: How U.S. Ambassadorial Vacancies Affect Bilateral Portfolio Investment Positions, Tianning Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines how the absence of U.S. ambassadors impacts bilateral portfolio investment positions held by investors in the United States and counterpart countries. The panel dataset spans 2001 to 2019, covering 56 counterpart countries in terms of portfolio investment positions held by foreign investors in U.S. securities and 102 counterpart countries in terms of portfolio investment positions held by U.S. investors in foreign countries. Using the instrumental variable approach, the results show that a prolonged vacancy lasting at least three months in a year causes sizable and significant reductions in portfolio investments held by foreign investors in U.S. securities. …

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

Converging, But Not Together: Regional Growth After Eu Enlargement, Armine Kardashyan

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies whether poorer regions in Central and Eastern Europe have caught up to richer ones since EU enlargement, and whether any observed catch-up reflects absolute convergence or convergence conditional on regional fundamentals. Using annual NUTS-3 data for eleven Central and Eastern European member states from 2000 to 2023, I estimate rolling ten-year convergence regressions within a steady-state framework in which regional GDP per capita depends on investment, human capital, and within-window exposure to EU membership.

The results show strong evidence of conditional convergence during the early and middle phases of enlargement. Regions that begin a window above their …