Economics Commons^™

Projecting The Broad Money Supply From Base Money Dynamics, Baba N. Yaaba

Bullion

The study demonstrates that in periods when Other Depository Corporations' balance sheet data are unavailable, broad money (M3) can be reasonably projected by combining the monetary base from the CBN balance sheet with the immediately preceding money multiplier. This time-varying approach using the lagged multiplier provides an appropriate and empirically justified basis for projecting broad money. However, the application of this methodology should be confined to internal policy analysis and decision-making purposes and not extended to public dissemination.

Accounting Response To Inflation And Its Implication On Economic Development In Nigeria, Jimoh Ojo Ihiovi

Bullion

This study examines the relationship among inflation, accounting responses, investment, regulatory compliance and economic development in Nigeria. It uses secondary data from official macroeconomic sources and selected corporate reports and applies descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and Ordinary Least Squares regression. The reported results show a negative association between inflation and GDP per capita, while accounting response, investment and regulatory compliance have positive associations with economic development. The study recommends stronger inflation-sensitive disclosures, improved enforcement and professional capacity, while recognising that IAS 29 applies only where its hyperinflation criteria are met.

Non-Oil Exports And International Reserves In Nigeria: A Descriptive Assessment (1981-2023), Oluwabunmi Dada

Bullion

This study examines non-oil exports and international reserve accumulation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2023. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and trend analysis are employed. Services and agricultural exports show modest positive associations with reserves, while manufacturing exports record a strong negative association and mining exports show a negligible relationship. Real GDP, the exchange rate and external debt are positively correlated with reserves. The findings support policies that strengthen export competitiveness, value addition and macroeconomic stability. The reported relationships are descriptive and should not be interpreted as causal effects.

Corporate Governance In The Last Decade (2012-2021): A Systematic Review Of Literature, Aliyu Abdulaziz

Bullion

This article reviews 100 peer-reviewed corporate governance studies published from 2012 to 2021 across 34 country settings. It applies a systematic quantitative assessment technique to examine publication year, publisher, geography, article type, data-collection method and research theme. The corpus consists mainly of empirical studies and is concentrated in Asian settings. Observation and survey methods dominate, while mixed methods are uncommon. Board composition, board independence and ownership structure are the leading themes. The review identifies geographical, methodological and thematic gaps and recommends broader coverage and greater methodological diversity in future research.

Cash Reserve Ratio As A Monetary Policy Tool In Nigeria: Implications For Banking System Liquidity And Stability, Baba N. Yaaba Phd, Usenobong Akpan Phd

Bullion

In pursuit of price stability, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) deploys a range of monetary policy instruments to regulate liquidity conditions and influence macroeconomic outcomes. Among these, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) has played an increasingly prominent role in recent tightening cycles. While these measures aimed to curb excess liquidity and inflationary pressures, concerns have emerged regarding their implications for bank intermediation and financial stability. This study evaluates the impact of CRR on banking system liquidity and stability in Nigeria using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and monthly data from June 2010 to March 2025. The results confirm …

Digital Financial Services And The Formalisation Of Informal Enterprises In Nigeria: A Policy Review, Mayowa Olawale Ogunsola, Helen Olubunmi Aderemi

Bullion

Nigeria's informal sector accounts for approximately 93% of employment (ILO, 2025; NBS, 2023) and, following the 2025 GDP rebasing, contributed 42.5% of GDP in 2019 (NBS, 2025). Digital Financial Services (DFS) are promoted as a formalisation pathway, yet recent evidence (2022–2026) shows that while DFS adoption enhances productivity and financial inclusion, it does not automatically trigger business registration or tax compliance. Drawing on institutional logics and gradualism, this policy review of 28 studies finds that Nigeria's current framework conflates digital inclusion with formalisation, suffers fragmented coordination among the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC), and Nigerian Revenue …

Digital Financial Innovation, Currency Outside Banking System, And Inflationary Rate In Nigeria: Implications For Exchange Rate Management, Philip Ifeakachukwu Nwosa

Bullion

Digital financial innovation has expanded globally, supporting cashless systems and reducing currency outside banks and inflation in advanced economies. In Nigeria, however, rising use of digital payment platforms has coincided with increasing inflation and higher cash in circulation. This study explores the relationship among digital financial innovation, currency outside the banking system, and inflation from 2009 to 2024, while assessing implications for exchange rate management. Findings show that despite rapid digital payment growth, both inflation and cash outside banks remain elevated, creating challenges for effective exchange rate stability. The study adopts a descriptive research design to examine the relationship among …

Evaluating The Determinants Of Financial Inclusion In Emerging Economies, Joshua Ohifeme Ohioma Dr

Bullion

Financial inclusion (FI) encourages economic empowerment and growth while also serving as a catalytical factor in achieving seven of the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals. Attainment of these and other benefits of FI is largely dependent and influenced by various factors and determinants. Analysing sample data of 26,930 responses from the Access to Financial Services in Nigeria (A2F) 2023 survey, this study examined the factors influencing FI using the Multiple Logistic Regression model. The study found that mobile technology, literacy level and urban residency have significant influences on FI while age and gender do not significantly influence FI. Implications of the …

Intergovernmental Relations, Market-Preserving Federalism, And Digital Governance In Nigeria, Dhikru Adewale Yagboyaju, Jeremiah Oluwadara Omotayo

Bullion

This paper analyses intergovernmental fiscal relations in Nigeria using Barry Weingast’s theory of market-preserving federalism. It argues that excessive fiscal centralisation, weak subnational autonomy, and recurring disputes over revenue allocation, such as those involving value-added tax and oil derivation, undermine inclusive economic development. Using qualitative analysis of policy documents, legal frameworks, and audit reports, the study finds that embedding digital governance within a market-preserving federal framework could enhance subnational revenue generation, fiscal transparency, and competitive horizontal federalism.

Examining The Role Of The Cbn's Agent Banking Policy In Its Financial Inclusion Drive From A Mechanism Design Theory Perspective, Umar Yakub Yakub Mr

Bullion

This paper analyses CBN’s Agent Banking policy and its role in promoting financial inclusion through the lens of mechanism design theory. It sought to evaluate how effective the policy has been in bringing together the incentives of key stakeholders—customers, agents, and banks—with the ultimate goals of the Bank’s financial inclusion policy. The scope covers the design and evolution of the policy, the incentives of the different stakeholders, and finding potential information asymmetries, moral hazard, and adverse selection issues. It assesses the impact of the policy based on available evidence and concludes with mechanism design-informed recommendations for improving the policy’s effectiveness …

National Security, Macroeconomic Stability, And The Future Of Nigeria's Development: Policy Priorities In A Volatile Global Environment, Suleiman Yusuf Usman Mr.

Bullion

Nigeria confronts a dual crisis: escalating domestic insecurity and intensifying global geopolitical volatility. Rising insecurity undermines productive capacity, diverts fiscal resources, and erodes investor confidence, whilst external shocks—including policy pronouncements from major economies and geopolitical tensions—threaten capital flows, foreign exchange reserves, and macroeconomic stability. This article examines the economic and developmental implications of these intertwined pressures, evaluates their impact on monetary policy effectiveness and financial sector resilience, and presents actionable policy recommendations to strengthen governance, restore stability, and safeguard Nigeria's long-term development trajectory. The analysis emphasises the urgent need for coordinated fiscal and monetary responses, institutional reforms, and strategic repositioning …

Monetary Policy Effectiveness Index (Mpei): A Novel Framework For Assessing Central Bank Performance In Developing Economies, Emmanuel Ating Onwioduokit

Bullion

This paper presents the Monetary Policy Effectiveness Index (MPEI), a composite measure designed to evaluate monetary policy in developing economies. Unlike traditional single indicators such as inflation or interest rates, which capture only partial outcomes, the MPEI integrates five key dimensions: price stability, output responsiveness, transmission effectiveness, financial depth and inclusion, and institutional credibility. This multidimensional approach reflects the real policy trade-offs and constraints of developing economies. The index enhances accountability, guides sound policy design, and facilitates meaningful cross-country comparisons and progress monitoring.

The Problem With The Mode Of External Debt Servicing: The Case Of Nigeria, Shehu Tijjani Muhammed

Bullion

This study empirically tested the hypothesis that external debt servicing leads to debt accumulation using Nigeria as case study. The method employed combines logic and debt stock variation analysis. Results indicate that Nigeria has served interest on its external debt only to see its external debt stock increasing confirming the hypothesis. A reform is needed to enable the country retain the domestic income lost to international speculative capital to boost government revenue. A sovereign agency to intermediate between the indebted residents, exporters, and the banking system can be created to solve the problem.

Endogenous Liquidity Shocks And Liquidity Management Dilemma In Nigeria, Temitope J. Laniran, Hamza Abdulaziz, Nuruddeen Usman

Bullion

This paper examines the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) liquidity management framework over a period marked by aggressive monetary tightening in response to persistent inflationary pressures. The analysis suggested that despite sustained sterilisation efforts through CRR debits and open market operations (OMO), liquidity surpluses persisted, driven largely by autonomous factors such as fiscal injections, maturing OMO bills, and foreign exchange interventions. The resulting structural liquidity surpluses periodically weakened the alignment between short‐term interest rates and the policy corridor, highlighting operational frictions and transmission inefficiencies. The paper opines that heavy reliance on blunt liquidity‐absorbing instruments without addressing the root causes of …

Official Development Assistance (Oda) In Nigeria: A Political Economy Perspective, Robert Idoko Ogwola

Bullion

This study examines the effects of Official Development Assistance (ODA) on Nigeria’s economic growth, social welfare, and political development from 1960 to 2024. Using thematic content analysis, the findings reveal that ODA’s impact has been marginal, falling short of expectations. Instead of fostering economic growth and strengthening social and political systems, ODA often generated unintended outcomes. The study recommends that Nigeria reduce dependence on foreign aid, strengthen national institutions, tackle corruption, and reform public debt management to achieve sustainable development that aligns with relevant targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Navigating Trump Tariffs In Africa: The Role Of Regional Economic Integration, Baba N. Yaaba

Bullion

The global economy is shifting away from free trade toward protectionism and economic nationalism, from multilateralism to unilateralism. This is evidenced by both tariffs and non-tariff measures taken by major global powers, which arise from political populism, economic insecurity, and strategic competition among them. This study analyses this trend, emphasising Trump's recent tariffs and their attendant implications for the global economy. The study argues that African Regional Economic Integration offers a shield to the continent if pursued vigorously. With vast potential in Africa, strategic investments, good governance, and inclusive policies can drive growth. At the same time, cooperation, such as …

Too Far, Too Costly, Too Complex: How Structural Factors Impact Women’S Mobile-Money Adoption And Business Investment In Sub-Sahara Africa, Iyabo A. Olanrele Dr

Bullion

This study investigates how structural factors shape women’s adoption of mobile-money services and access to credit for entrepreneurship across Sub-Sahara Africa. Using cross-country data from the 2025 Global Findex Database, the analysis demonstrates that women face disproportionately higher barriers than men. Long distances to mobile-money agents significantly reduce women’s likelihood of borrowing, while men’s borrowing is less affected. High service and transaction fees further constrain women, reflecting their lower and more irregular incomes, and liquidity limitations prevent many from maintaining active accounts. Documentation requirements, though partially mitigated by improved national ID systems and tiered Know-Your-Customer (KYC) rules, remain a secondary …

Welfare Implication Of Alternative Tax Rates Adjustment Policy In Nigeria: A Dsge Analysis, Umar B. Ibrahim, Isah F. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sets out to determine the desirable policy adjustment in the tax rate for Nigeria that ensures the least welfare cost. A calibrated small open-economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model of the Nigerian economy is applied to achieve this objective. Within this framework, we examined the impact of an increase in value-added tax (VAT) rate from 7.5 to 15 percent on key macroeconomic variables relative to the impact of an increase in company income tax (CIT) rate from 30 to 35 percent on macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we examined the welfare costs of the increases in the …

Crisis, Pressure, And Policy: Can Central Banks Set Boundaries?, Baba N. Yaaba Phd

Bullion

Evolving from simple entities designed to issue national currencies and manage government debt to sophisticated institutions responsible for conducting monetary policy, central banks have had a fascinating journey that has shaped the functioning of modern economies. Today, they are involved in issues outside their original roles and beyond the scope of monetary policy, which may affect credibility in the long run. This study submits that central bankers should learn to professionally resist attempts to get them to take on tasks that are outside their statutory functions. Admittedly, saying no may not be as easy as it sounds, but there is …

Competition And Financial Performance Of Insurance Companies In Nigerian, Toluwa C. Oladele Phd

Bullion

Competition among Nigerian insurance companies has intensified following the consolidation exercise, which aims to strengthen the industry and enhance its performance. Nonetheless, the capacity of insurance companies in Nigeria to compete effectively remains challenging. Hence, this study analysed the impact of competition on the financial performance of insurance companies in Nigeria. Secondary data were obtained from companies' financial reports and analysed using OLS regression. The findings indicated that competition significantly influences the performance of insurance companies. Consequently, the study recommended that regulatory authorities and insurance companies implement measures to foster healthy competition.

Making Markets Work For Rural Women: Exploring Barriers And Policy Options, Bukar Mustapha Phd

Bullion

Rural women are the backbone of small-scale agriculture in Nigeria, yet their connections to formal markets are minimal, which undermines the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 5.  This study identifies the barriers inhibiting rural women markets paritciaption and explores strategies for sustaining women's economic empowerment programmes.

A survey approach and desk review methods were applied fr the analysis. The findings revealed that poorer representation in producer organisations, strict cultural norms, limited access to credit, and inadequate infrastructure are the major barriers. This suggests that policies and reforms are crucial for addressing gender-based constraints and enhancing the market participation of rural …

Assessment Of Development Traps In Nigeria: 1985-2021, Aminu Alhassan

Bullion

This article conceptually and theoretically examined the phenomenon of development tarps in Nigeria by adopting stylised facts and a trend analysis approach. Essentially, the findings revealed that the Nigerian economy is ensnared in governance, poverty, and corruption traps. Thus, the poverty trap persists due to many years of persistent poor governance and its impact, while corruption has persistent, domineering, and predictive power on Nigerians. Therefore, the Nigerian elites, especially the political elite, must rise to become the Patriots of Development. Additionally, the Nigerian government should further empower the anti-corruption agencies so that they become effective, rather than merely bark.

Assessment Of Nigeria's Sectoral Gross Domestic Product (Gdp) Performance Using The Three-Stage Model, Umeokwobi Richard Phd

Bullion

Nigeria's economic structure has undergone an atypical transformation, resulting in a lack of sustainable growth. It has been deduced that developed countries move from an agriculture-dominant economy to an industrial-dominant economy and finally to a service-dominant economy. This shift can be seen through the lens of the three-stage model. This paper investigates whether Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) follows the model. Motivated by this anomaly, the study examines the pattern and implications of Nigeria's sectoral transformation, utilising the Three-Stage Growth Model as a theoretical framework. The analysis employs trend and descriptive methods to examine sectoral contributions to GDP and structural …

The Economic Imperatives Of Ensuring Accessible University Education In Nigeria, Adekunle Alexander Balogun

Bullion

This study exmined economic imperatives of enhancing access to university education for Nigerians. It submits that university education is the most important factor for technological and innovative breakthroughs, as it equips graduates with receptive minds for complex reasoning that innovation requires. The study employed critical discourse analysis, focusing on the association between the attainment of a university education and the higher incomes of its recipients. The study recommends that the government increase funding for university education to complement private-sector initiatives. It also recommends that university authorities in Nigeria should tap into the vast endowment and embrace grant opportunities for funding.

Value Added Tax Rate Variation, Import Demand And Sectoral Output In Nigeria, Joshua K. Nomkuha, Aondoawase Asooso, Philip T. Abachi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study employs computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effect of increase in value added tax (VAT), from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, on import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria. The study uses 2020 as the base year for the data analysis. The results show that increase in VAT affects import demand negatively, based on import penetration ratios, with mixed effect across six sectors. The implication of the result is that the VAT policy discourage consumption of foreign products, and constitute excess burden to consumers of such products in Nigeria. The results further reveal that …

Trade Liberalization, Non-Oil Export And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Jerome T. Andohol, Terhemen Tarzoor, Dennis T. Nomor

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the impact of trade liberalization and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilizes an autoregressive distributed lag model and found the combined effect of trade liberalization and non-oil exports to be positive and statistical significant. While trade liberalization alone may have negative consequences, its synergy with a robust non-oil export can drive sustainable economic growth. The study recommends that strategies to enhance non-oil exports should be encouraged to support the effectiveness of trade liberalization in promoting growth.

The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transmission In Nigeria: Evidence From The Monetary Policy Rate And The Cash Reserve Ratio, Abdulrahman A. Nadani, Auwal Isah

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) as policy instruments in Nigeria. A structural VAR model is employed to simulate two distinct models measuring shocks from the MPR and the CRR using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2023. Findings show that contractionary monetary policy impulses using MPR and the CRR contract output and credit to the private sector, inflation remains largely positive in the two models, known as the “price puzzle”, but the puzzle is more persistent in the MPR equation. Moreover, shock to MPR strongly influences short-term interest …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzes the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of Nigerian stock market. The study uses a number of models that include autoregressive distributed lag, vector auto regression, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Findings show that reported cases of COVID-19 have causal effect on daily returns of the Nigerian stock market. The results also show that Nigerian stocks are good for portfolio diversification. The results of variance decomposition confirm the declining importance of COVID-19 cases and deaths as the pandemic slows down. Further results show that, for the duration of the …

Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Financial Inclusion And Development In Nigeria, Okwanya Innocent, Taiwo A. Olusegun, Aimua E. Peace

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on financial inclusion and development in Nigeria. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and impulse response function (IRF) to determine the extent and response of financial inclusion and development to fiscal policy changes in Nigeria. The study derives a financial inclusion index from three core indicators: access, usage and quality of financial services, while financial development is measured as the ratio of money supply to GDP (M2/GDP). The results show that government expenditure has a significant positive effect on financial inclusion and development, while tax revenue exerts a negative …