Economics Commons^™

Age Structure And Inflation Dynamics In Pacific Island Economies, August Letlet, Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study uses the panel of six Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to investigate the relationship between changing age structures and inflation. The findings suggest that both aggregated and disaggregated shares of the working-age population exert disinflationary pressure. This supports the life cycle hypothesis, which postulates that people in their productive years tend to save and produce more than they consume, fostering economic stability and managing inflation. Conversely, the findings indicate that old-age dependency contributes to inflationary pressures. These insights underscore the importance of demographic dynamics in shaping inflation trends and provide valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to maintain price stability.

Disaggregated Economic Complexity And Inflation In Oecd Countries, Raymond L. Aor, Afees A. Salisu

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study probes the intricate relationship between economic complexity and inflation dynamics, an area that has been relatively under-researched despite the potential for economic complexity to predict inflation. We focus on selected OECD countries and use panel data from 1998 to 2021. Utilizing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model, we analyze both short- and long-term dynamics across various components of inflation. Our analysis encompasses both aggregate and disaggregated indicators of complexity, including ECI-Trade, ECI-Technology, and ECI-Research. The results indicate that the impact of economic complexity on inflation differs depending on the type of inflation and the time frame considered. …

Teaching A New Dog Old Tricks: How Buy Now Pay Later Responds To Consumer Financial Strength, Ryunosuke Nakase

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to answer three questions. 1) How does BNPL usage in the US respond to macroeconomic conditions reflective of consumer strength? 2) Does BNPL debt migrate toward credit cards during months following high BNPL spend? 3) How does BNPL respond to macroeconomic conditions at the firm level? I constructed a 4 year monthly and quarterly time series dataset spanning from 2021 to 2025. I utilize time series OLS regressions to examine the short-term behavior of BNPL volume monthly at the aggregate level and quarterly at the firm level. At the aggregate level, BNPL volume in the US is …

Shrinkflation And Consumer Demand, Aljoscha Janssen, Johannes Kasinger

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study investigates shrinkflation—the practice of reducing product size while maintaining or slightly changing prices—in the U.S. retail grocery market. We analyze a decade of retail scanner data to assess the prevalence and patterns of product size changes across various product categories. Our findings show that approximately 1.92% of products have been downsized. When comparing total sales, product downsizing is more than five times as prevalent as upsizing. Product downsizing typically occurs without a corresponding decrease in price and is widespread across product categories. Consequently, consumers end up paying more per unit volume. We further find that consumers are more …

Effects Of External Debt On Inflation In The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz), Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

This research examined the effect of external public debt on inflation in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) using annual data from 1960 to 2022. The study selected the six member countries of WAMZ, namely: Gambia, Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Ghana, to examine their economic well-being, growth performance, external debt, and inflation over a 63-year period. This study is unique because it examines three periods, namely: pre-WAMZ (1960 to 2000); during WAMZ (2001 to 2022); and the entire period (1960 to 2022), extends previous studies by using updated data, and then shows the long-run positive effect of external …

Independence Of Central Banks In Nondemocratic Regimes: Implications For Price Stability, Abeeb O. Olaniran, Umar B. Ndako

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines the impact of central bank independence on inflation in nondemocratic regimes, with a specific focus on the differences between Islamic and nonIslamic groups. It utilizes nonstationary heterogeneous panels to estimate both the longrun and short-run responses of inflation to central bank independence. Additionally, it employs a panel smooth transition regression model to identify any potential threshold effects in this relationship. Our findings reveal an inverse relationship between central bank independence and inflation rates for both groups in the long run. Our result suggests that non-Islamic authoritarian countries may struggle more than Islamic ones to maintain price stability …

Budget Deficit Spending Causes Inflation, Roberto B. Raymundo, Paulynne J. Castillo

DLSU Business & Economics Review

Using the Cochrane-Orcutt iterative procedure, the paper provides strong statistical evidence that inflation is a monetary phenomenon caused by budget deficit spending when the central bank buys government debt. Regression results validate that increasing budget deficits lead to the issuance of more debt securities the central bank uses to back the creation of new money. The central bank purchases government securities from commercial banks to implement expansionary monetary policy. The increase in money supply is not possible without the issuance of government debt securities, which, in turn, is only undertaken by the Bureau of Treasury when it finances budget deficits. …

Bitcoin As A Currency: A Theoretical Framework Of Bitcoin’S Supply Effect On Consumption And Inflation, Begad Amr Hassan

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines the macroeconomic effects of Bitcoin's fixed money supply within a dynamic general equilibrium context. Traditional Keynesian economics proposes that central banks regulate the money supply through interest rate manipulation and monetary interventions to promote economic stability within the market. However, cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, present a challenge due to their algorithmically predetermined supply, which halves every four years, removing discretionary monetary policy. By adapting Calvo's (1983) staggered-price model to a closed economy, supposing Bitcoin is the only medium of exchange, it is deduced that Bitcoin's deflationary nature causes a persistent consumption collapse and hyper deflationary spirals. Furthermore, calibrations …

Understanding Household Financial Stability: Examining The Effects Of Inflation And Income, Cyndy E. Gutierrez-Fierros

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

This study aims to investigate the impact of inflation on US household financial stability from 2013 to 2023. As inflation rises, individuals’ purchasing power erodes leading to influence economic behaviors. Behaviors such as spending, saving, and borrowing should be a priority concern in the US economy. Results of this study reveal that inflation does not affect financial well-being and its direct impact on household stability is statistically weak. Regression testing shows that income emerges as the most significant factor. Most noticeably income influences savings and debt management in a positive way. As per these results, economic policies should be focused …

The Impact Of Financial Inclusion On Inflation In The Mena Region: Oil Vs Non-Oil Countries, Jailan Elsaid

Theses and Dissertations

The study examines the impact of financial inclusion on inflation as a tool for monetary policy effectiveness in the MENA region, separating the analysis into oil and non-oil countries from 2004 to 2022. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is used to create a multidimensional index of financial inclusion through usage and access dimensions. Additionally, PVAR GMM estimation and Granger causality tests are implemented to analyze the dynamics and causality between financial inclusion and inflation, while controlling for other variables such as broad money, real effective exchange rate, and real GDP growth, which may influence the relationship according to the …

Part 1: Virginia's Economy Slows As Challenges To Growth Rise, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

As we near the end of 2025, we now have sufficient evidence that economic activity has slowed in Virginia. The civilian labor force and the number of individuals reporting they are at work has fallen in 2025. Weekly continued unemployment claims, which capture individuals who are unemployed, looking for work, but have not found work, have been higher for each week of 2025 when compared to 2024. Job growth has continued, but the economy is buffeted by tariffs and declines in federal employment.

European Household Savings Dynamics: Under Inflation And Post-Pandemic Shocks, Mateusz Mierzejewski, Julia Szczurek

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

The Covid-19 pandemic, which began in early 2020, triggered a global health and economic crisis, leading to unprecedented changes in consumer behaviour and the functioning of national economies. This article examines the impact of the pandemic and the subsequent inflationary crisis on household savings levels in selected European countries. The analysis includes an assessment of household responses to changing macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation, interest rates, and household incomes, as well as the effectiveness of implemented monetary and fiscal policies. The study employs a neural network model considering autoregressive relationships in a panel data approach. The research covers data from …

Three Essays On The Interaction Between Macroeconomics, Money, And Government Bonds, Zejun Jiang

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation, ''Essays on the Interaction between Macroeconomics, Money, and Government Bonds,” has three chapters that study how macroeconomics (e.g., inflation), government bonds, and money interact with each other. It provides insights into how households make optimal maturity choices in government bonds, how households own different types of government bond assets, and how money growth can help understand the cross-country inflation after COVID-19.

The first chapter develops an intertemporal portfolio choice model to investigate the optimal household portfolio choice for government bonds across maturities. The U.S. Treasury data displays a higher holding share of long-term government bonds. Adding uncertain labor …

4th Annual International Conference Proceedings: Rethinking Economics In The Contemporary World, Centre For Business And Economic Research (Cber), School Of Economics And Social Sciences (Sess)

Conference Proceedings

The School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS), through the Department of Economics and the Center for Business and Economics Research (CBER), opens the call for papers for its fourth international conference: Rethinking Economics in the Contemporary World.

The development of technology, the immediate effects of climate change, complex geopolitical situations, substantial migration, rapid urbanization, increasing income inequality, the emergence of digital economies, and global health crises have all amplified uncertainties and accelerated changes in the economic landscape, underscoring the imperative for better insights and new perspectives in economics profession. This year's conference recognizes the new paradigms and shifts in …

Conference Proceedings: Fourth Annual International Conference: Rethinking Economics In The Contemporary World, Shumaila Omar [Editor], Uzair Arif [Ed.], Tabeer E Zehra [Ed.], Sania Zehra [Ed.], Tooba Zaheer [Ed.]

IBA Press

The 4th Annual International Conference on Rethinking Economics, organized by the Institute of Business Administration (IBA) Karachi, provided a dynamic platform for academics, practitioners, and policymakers to explore diverse themes shaping the global economic landscape. The conference highlighted critical issues such as digital transformation, urban infrastructure, environmental challenges, monetary and fiscal policy, and human development. This collection is an amalgamation of abstracts from the papers presented at the conference.

Covid-19 Pandemic And Ghana’S Economy: A Deep Dive Into Economic Indicators, Williams Kwasi Peprah, Isaac Anowuo [email protected], Ebenezer Owusu-Yeboah, Daniel Adofo Kwakye Ameyaw, Lucile Sabas

Faculty Publications

The study presents an in-depth analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on Ghana’s gross domestic product (GDP), balance of payments and international investment position (BPM6), and inflation (INFL). Employing a pre-and post-COVID-19 comparison (2017-2022) through repeated measures ANOVA and tests of between-subject effects, it investigates whether the government’s economic performance was significantly impacted. Key findings show a notable decrease in GDP and BPM6, alongside a major increase in inflation rates post-pandemic. The study concludes that the COVID-19 pandemic had a statistically significant impact on Ghana’s economic performance in terms of GDP and BPM6, but not inflation. Recommendations include implementing economic …

Unemployment, Weekly Earnings, And Cost Of Living In Mountain West Metros, 2022, Annie Vong, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet examines data on unemployment, weekly earnings, and cost of living for five Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Utah. The Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (LISEP). Local Analysis report includes data on the 50 largest MSAs in the U.S., which include the following in the Mountain West: Phoenix-Mesa Scottsdale, AZ; Tucson, AZ; Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO; Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV; and Salt Lake City, UT.

Economic Anomalies Following The Handover Of Hong Kong, Nathan Martin

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper seeks to examine and provide a possible explanation for economic anomalies in Hong Kong following its handover to China. Hong Kong was on a 99-year lease to the United Kingdom from China before being handed back over July 1^st, 1997. Due to the “one country, two systems” policy espoused in the handover agreement that was to be implemented for fifty years, this event marks a rare natural experiment of a peaceful regime change without a significant change in governance. This paper seeks to understand the impact of the act of regime change on selected key macroeconomic …

Partisan Perspectives On Inflation: Exploring Bias In Economic Expectations, Anna Durall

Economics Honors Projects

Inflation expectations are important determinants of future inflation and individual consumer behavior. Recent attention has been devoted to individual-level heterogeneity in inflation expectations. I consider political partisanship as a source of heterogeneity and question whether expectations are biased by partisanship. I find that they are, i.e., that individuals from the president's political party expect lower inflation relative to members of the opposing party (this difference is statistically insignificant during the Bush presidency), and that this result cannot be explained by additional sources of heterogeneity. I also examine whether belonging to the president's political party affects the rationality of expectations and …

Economic Development Analysis Research Paper: Myanmar, Rhoda Belachew

Entrepreneurship & Economic Development Student Projects

As a country endowed with great natural resources and a rich agricultural base, remains one of Southeast Asia’s most economically underdeveloped nations. Years of political instability, conflict, and limited institutional capacity have pulled back economic growth. Myanmar continues to face internal challenges including youth unemployment, underutilized rural labor, and weak infrastructure, alongside external obstacles including global trade barriers and limited foreign investment. This paper will highlight the current population, it’s impact on GDP and other variables that contribute to the GDP. It will also examine the key challenges to Myanmar’s’ economic growth and evaluates which development model offers the most …

Is Inflation Caused By Conflict?, Nicolas Cachanosky, Emilio Ocampo

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

We offer a critique of a paper recently published Lorenzoni and Werning (2023) that seeks to make an original contribution to the hypothesis that inflation is primarily caused by conflict and reconcile the Post-Keynesian and New-Keynesian traditions. L&W’s paper has two sections. In the first they develop a barter model that allows them to prove that inflation can occur with conflict and without money. In the second section they incorporate the conflict hypothesis into a broader framework compatible with New Keynesian models. We question the logical consistency and empirical validity of the barter model and the testability of the model …

Part 1: Virginia's Economy Grows, Will Consumers Remain Unhappy?, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

By many measures, Virginia will set several records in 2024. Economic activity across the state will surpass that observed in 2023 and will represent the fourth consecutive year of economic growth. More Virginians will have been at work or looking for work than in any other year. Yet, if one asks Virginians about the state of the economy, their views are decidedly more pessimistic.

Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This note examines the effects of price-controlled perishable food items on inflation in Fiji. We study year-on-year changes in headline inflation and disaggregate measures of inflation in the form of food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables against three perishable food items used daily by Fijian households, namely, potatoes, onion, and garlic over the period 2019:01-2022:08. We also follow Narayan et al (2023), allowing for the lags and leads framework in examining Fiji’s inflation. Our results show that the leads and lags model explain 22%, 27% and 65% of headline, food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables inflation rates, respectively, over the …

Inflation, Monetary Policy, And The Sacrifice Ratio, Leef H. Dierks

CBER Conference

Motivated by the 2022 uptick in headline inflation and the marked shift towards globally more restrictive monetary policies, this paper examines the sacrifice ratio, i.e., the percentage cost of actual production lost to every one percentage point decrease in (trend) inflation, for selected Southeast Asian economies. Results indicate that upon adopting a contractive monetary policy, GDP growth dropped by up to 0.5 per cent, confirming that monetary authorities’ disinflationary policies typically trigger declines in both output and employment. However, as even minor adjustments to the way of determining the sacrifice ratio lead to varying results, caution ought to be applied …

An In-Depth Look Into Inflation In Argentina And The United States: A Qualitative Study, Sebastian J. Ippolito

Student Publications

This paper explores the complex phenomenon of inflation in Argentina and the United States through a qualitative lens, offering a comparative analysis that captures the diverse experiences and perspectives of individuals from both nations. The paper examines the historical context of both countries to further develop key inflation perspectives and experiences in both nations. By interviewing two family members in Argentina and an Economics professor in the United States, the study bridges personal and academic viewpoints to unravel the multifaceted impacts of inflation. Argentina's prolonged struggle with inflation, characterized by historical policy inconsistencies and economic mismanagement, contrasts with the relatively …

Inflation: Causes And Consequences, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

First of all, let me thank Tariq Ikram and Hassan Tariq for providing me this opportunity to share my thoughts with you this morning and I’m very impressed by the presentations of the panel who are specialists in their own fields. So I won’t repeat very much what we heard this morning in the first session and also from my fellow panelists but I would pick up on the point which Atif left at the end. People don’t realize that beginning of the inflation in Pakistan is not solely externally induced through the pandemic, the supply disruptions, the price hikes, …

Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks

Journal of New Finance

Several euro area economies are likely to experience a stagflation in 2023. This situation is characterized by a combination of economic stagnation, i.e., GDP growth falling below its potential growth rate, and a pronounced increase in inflation as was last observed during the 1970s’ oil crisis. A stagflation presents the European Central Bank with a dilemma. Should it further tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to align euro area inflation (expectations) with its target of two per cent p.a. in the medium term? Or should the ECB re-adopt a more accommodative stance so as to stimulate economic growth in …

Revisiting The Exchange Rate Pass- Through To Domestic Prices In Egypt, Ahmed Abdelhamid

Theses and Dissertations

Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) refers to the extent to which the movements in the exchange rate influence domestic prices. This study revisits the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt using quarter data from 2006 to 2022. The study employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to estimate the degree of ERPT. The findings suggest that ERPT in Egypt is incomplete, meaning that changes in the exchange rate do not fully pass through to consumer prices. The study also investigates the role of the money supply in absorbing the shocks in the nominal exchange rate. The study has important implications for policymakers …

Reflections On Inflation: How Bad Has It Been?, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

THE increase in prices that countries have experienced since March 2022 has brought old fears about the deleterious impact of inflation. It is true that prices increased after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and this affected a series of commodities that are imported. Yet, it is important to understand how much prices have increased, the nature of inflation we have experienced, and the reaction of central banks.

Dollarization In Latin America: The Effect On Macroeconomic Outcomes In El Salvador And Ecuador, John Stephen Petrich

Quantitative Social Science Undergraduate Senior Theses

This paper examines full dollarization in Latin America and the experience of El Salvador, Panama and Ecuador using the U.S. Dollar as their sole currency. This is accomplished by comparing key macroeconomic indicators in these countries to both their pre-dollarization experience and a control group of the largest economies in the region from 1986 to 2019. Special attention is paid to the comparison between El Salvador which fully dollarized and Guatemala which partially dollarized in 2001. A gravity model using a difference in differences analysis found no significant increase in bilateral trade with the United States relative to the control …