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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Shock-Absorption Capacity In Menaap: A Regional Diagnostic Using The Policy Space Index, Alexei Kireyev Aug 2026

Shock-Absorption Capacity In Menaap: A Regional Diagnostic Using The Policy Space Index, Alexei Kireyev

Arab Economic and Business Journal

This paper assesses the short-term shock-absorption capacity of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) using the Policy Space Index (PSI). The PSI integrates fiscal, monetary, and reserve indicators and adjusts them for institutional constraints to measure nominal and effective shock-absorption capacity. The key finding is that MENAAP effective policy space averaged about 11 percent of GDP in 2024, roughly half the global average and heavily concentrated in oil exporters. The constraints lie in MENAAP's institutional arrangements and insufficient fiscal discipline. Easing them requires fiscal consolidation alongside structural reforms to address the institutional bottlenecks.

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The Interplay Between Deficit Spending And Financial Instability: An Examination Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy Interactions, Heidie Jean George Jun 2026

The Interplay Between Deficit Spending And Financial Instability: An Examination Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy Interactions, Heidie Jean George

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

This study investigates the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on financial stability and fragility, focusing on how government spending and deficits contribute to the economic and financial system. Drawing on Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) and Financial Fragility Hypothesis (FFH), the research examines the dynamic relationship between fiscal policy, financial stability, and economic stability. The study focuses on understanding how government spending and deficits affect the economic and financial system in context of private and public debt and policy interactions and the role of system risk factors. The study uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Vector Autoregression (VAR), Impulse Response …

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Fiscal And Monetary Policies For Inclusive Growth In Developing And Emerging Markets, Collins Anosike May 2026

Fiscal And Monetary Policies For Inclusive Growth In Developing And Emerging Markets, Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

The study examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policies in attaining inclusive growth for some developing countries and emerging markets. The study selected 20 countries and grouped them into group one and group two. The study is unique because it captures a broader range of countries compared to previous studies and shows their effect on economic growth. We use panel data and employ OLS regression and Johansen cointegration. We examine how each variable, general government expenditure, gross national expenditure, total revenue, official exchange rate, broad money, and deposit interest rate, affects the dependent variable (real GDP) from 1980 to …

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Origins And Evidence Of The Fed's Fiscal Effects From Coronavirus Response, Haynes A. Mcdaniel May 2026

Origins And Evidence Of The Fed's Fiscal Effects From Coronavirus Response, Haynes A. Mcdaniel

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

The year 2020 introduced modern American society to viral pandemic conditions not seen in over a century. By ravaging human health and spreading fear, the Coronavirus (Covid) period of 2020 to 2022 significantly impaired interpersonal economic transactions as it transformed beliefs about economics, politics, and social wellbeing. This research focuses on the Fed’s economic policy decisions during the early months of the Coronavirus pandemic when effects of the 2008 financial crisis still lingered as long-term government programs. It was an extraordinary time when policymakers were forced to meander prior policy effects of astonishing reach while considering new policies intended to …

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Macroprudential Easing Measures In The Context Of Contractionary Monetary Policy: The Case Of Brazil In 2014, Marcos Antonio Paliari, Marcos Roberto Vasconcelos Apr 2026

Macroprudential Easing Measures In The Context Of Contractionary Monetary Policy: The Case Of Brazil In 2014, Marcos Antonio Paliari, Marcos Roberto Vasconcelos

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This paper evaluates the effects of a macroprudential policy of regulatory easing implemented amidst a contractionary monetary policy in Brazil. The intervention, carried out by the Central Bank in the third quarter of 2014, relaxed reserve requirements on time deposits to stimulate bank credit for vehicle financing. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach with fixed effects by credit modality and month, the analysis is based on monthly disbursement data for consumer loans from 2011 to 2018. Twelve rolling monthly windows are used to capture the dynamic evolution of the policy’s effects. Results based on a synthetic control group indicate statistically significant and …

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National Security, Macroeconomic Stability, And The Future Of Nigeria's Development: Policy Priorities In A Volatile Global Environment, Suleiman Yusuf Usman Mr. Mar 2026

National Security, Macroeconomic Stability, And The Future Of Nigeria's Development: Policy Priorities In A Volatile Global Environment, Suleiman Yusuf Usman Mr.

Bullion

Nigeria confronts a dual crisis: escalating domestic insecurity and intensifying global geopolitical volatility. Rising insecurity undermines productive capacity, diverts fiscal resources, and erodes investor confidence, whilst external shocks—including policy pronouncements from major economies and geopolitical tensions—threaten capital flows, foreign exchange reserves, and macroeconomic stability. This article examines the economic and developmental implications of these intertwined pressures, evaluates their impact on monetary policy effectiveness and financial sector resilience, and presents actionable policy recommendations to strengthen governance, restore stability, and safeguard Nigeria's long-term development trajectory. The analysis emphasises the urgent need for coordinated fiscal and monetary responses, institutional reforms, and strategic repositioning …

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Monetary Policy And Racial Differentials In Labor Market Outcomes, Tsvetomir Petkov, Charles L. Weise Mar 2026

Monetary Policy And Racial Differentials In Labor Market Outcomes, Tsvetomir Petkov, Charles L. Weise

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper examines the empirical relationship between monetary policy and racial and ethnic labor market outcomes. Estimating structural vector autoregressions with external instruments, we find a much larger response of labor market outcome gaps than has been documented previously. These differential outcomes persist for Black workers of both sexes even within the same age group and level of educational attainment, while Hispanic and white responses are similar within such groupings. Estimates based on individual-level data show that distributional differences in demographic characteristics, as well as occupation and industry of employment, account for a large portion of the Hispanic-white unemployment gap …

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The Advantages Of Saudi Arabia’S Fixed Exchange Rate Regime For Inflation Control: An Econometric And Empirical Analysis, Rodrigo Bochner Feb 2026

The Advantages Of Saudi Arabia’S Fixed Exchange Rate Regime For Inflation Control: An Econometric And Empirical Analysis, Rodrigo Bochner

Arab Economic and Business Journal

Since 1986, Saudi, has maintained a fixed exchange rate, pegging the Saudi Riyal (SAR) to dollar at SAR 3.75/USD. This stabilizing domestic prices, and promoting macroeconomic stability in an oil-dependent and economy exposed to volatile global commodity prices and international shocks. This paper provides a assessment of the fixed exchange rate’s advantages for inflation control. Leveraging a dataset spanning 1980–2025 and econometric tools— Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques, and GARCH models—this study identifies the causal channels and measures the peg’s impact on inflation dynamics, with a review of literature, confirming that …

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Interest Rate And Inflation Control In Egypt: Evaluating Policy Efficiency (1976-2023), Fatma Abouzeid Feb 2026

Interest Rate And Inflation Control In Egypt: Evaluating Policy Efficiency (1976-2023), Fatma Abouzeid

Theses and Dissertations

Inflation has been a persistent problem in Egypt peaking with unprecedented levels throughout the past decades affecting economic stability and living standards in the country. Controlling inflation through interest rate has been a major tool adopted by the monetary authorities in Egypt with no real satisfactory outcome with respect to inflation levels. This links to a theoretical debate in economic literate on the relationship between interest rate and inflation which represents a major controversy in the field. The study examines this controversy in the case of Egypt to reach a conclusion on the actual relationship between these two central economic …

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Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect Co2 Emissions? Evidence From Brazil, Luccas Assis Attílio, João Ricardo Faria, Andre V. Mollick Jan 2026

Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect Co2 Emissions? Evidence From Brazil, Luccas Assis Attílio, João Ricardo Faria, Andre V. Mollick

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper examines whether monetary policy shocks affect CO2 emissions over time in Brazil. We show that CO2 emissions decline persistently following contractionary monetary policy shocks. The relationship between monetary policy and CO2 emissions in Brazil is assessed through two channels: trade openness and exchange rates. The theoretical model illustrates how monetary policy affects the domestic economy through the real exchange rate. An application of a Global VAR (GVAR) to the Brazilian economy from 1996 to 2018 investigates the effects of monetary policy in Brazil (or in the U.S.) on real GDP and, subsequently, on CO2 emissions. A contractionary monetary …

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Effects Of External Debt On Inflation In The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz), Collins Anosike Dec 2025

Effects Of External Debt On Inflation In The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz), Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

This research examined the effect of external public debt on inflation in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) using annual data from 1960 to 2022. The study selected the six member countries of WAMZ, namely: Gambia, Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Ghana, to examine their economic well-being, growth performance, external debt, and inflation over a 63-year period. This study is unique because it examines three periods, namely: pre-WAMZ (1960 to 2000); during WAMZ (2001 to 2022); and the entire period (1960 to 2022), extends previous studies by using updated data, and then shows the long-run positive effect of external …

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Exploring The Bank Lending Channel: How Bank Characteristics Shape Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Filip Świtała Nov 2025

Exploring The Bank Lending Channel: How Bank Characteristics Shape Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Filip Świtała

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This paper examines how individual bank characteristics influence the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel. Using panel data and a Fixed Effects model validated by the Hausman test, the author analyses how bank size, capitalization, profitability and asset quality affect responses to monetary tightening. The study highlights the importance of inter-bank differences in shaping monetary policy effectiveness and offers insights for regulatory frameworks and macroprudential policies aimed at strengthening financial stability.

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(Wp 2025-02) How Does The Fomc Form Forecasts? An Adaptive Learning Approach Utilizing Sep Data, Stephen J. Cole Jun 2025

(Wp 2025-02) How Does The Fomc Form Forecasts? An Adaptive Learning Approach Utilizing Sep Data, Stephen J. Cole

Economics Working Papers

This paper examines how FOMC participants construct their Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) forecasts. FOMC expectations are assumed to contain two components: (1) an endogenous part that follows an adaptive learning model and (2) an exogenous part defined as sentiment (waves of optimism and/or pessimism). The results include key policy takeaways. The forecasts of FOMC members are responsive to new economic information. Their sentiment about future GDP growth and inflation also displays persistence and is correlated with each other. Moreover, FOMC participants rely more on their endogenous/learning model to form expectations. However, sentiment plays a larger role during and around …

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The Effects Of Monetary Policies On Exchange Rates: A Multinational Panel Study (2000–2023), Yun Song May 2025

The Effects Of Monetary Policies On Exchange Rates: A Multinational Panel Study (2000–2023), Yun Song

Student Research

This study investigates the impact of monetary policy tools—interest rates, reserve requirements, and money supply—on exchange rates across five major economies: the United States, European Union, China, Japan, and Canada from 2000 to 2023. The analysis incorporates control variables such as GDP growth and inflation and utilizes various econometric models, from naïve regressions to advanced fixed effects specifications. The results show that interest rates and reserve requirements significantly influence exchange rate movements, while the role of money supply is more moderate. Special attention is given to the zero lower bound (ZLB) era using shadow rates. These findings align with Inoue …

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Exit Policy, Liquidity Normalization, And Lts Implications On Central Bank Policy Transmission, Alexander Lubis, Rangga Pratama, Merlin Dwi Yunaniar, Wahyu Agung Nugroho, Dian Prima Susiandri Apr 2025

Exit Policy, Liquidity Normalization, And Lts Implications On Central Bank Policy Transmission, Alexander Lubis, Rangga Pratama, Merlin Dwi Yunaniar, Wahyu Agung Nugroho, Dian Prima Susiandri

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The objective of this study is to determine the implications for the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission by examining the impact of specific policy toolkits in both Advanced Economy (AE) and Emerging Market (EM) countries during crises and during normalization (exit policy) upon crisis resolution. The analysis conducted using the VECM method on a number of AE and EM countries demonstrates that the response of bank interest rates (credit) is consistent with changes in policy rates and substantially diverges from Quantitative Easing (QE) policy in both the short and long term. However, the efficacy of monetary policy transmission appears to …

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Essays On Monetary Economics, Joseph Kachovec Apr 2025

Essays On Monetary Economics, Joseph Kachovec

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

Chapter I builds a quantitative New-Keynesian model with a central bank balance sheet, fiscal policy, and a representative financial intermediary facing uncertainty to show how interest rate policy has an additional counter-cyclical fiscal impact via central bank income when reserves are abundant as opposed to scarce. A counterfactual analysis between the US economies with small and large central bank balance sheets of 2005 and 2018 shows that in response to demand, supply, and government spending shocks, the real effects of identical interest rate changes are amplified in the abundant reserves economy. In response to a 1% preference shock, cumulative fluctuations …

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The Impact Of Financial Inclusion On Inflation In The Mena Region: Oil Vs Non-Oil Countries, Jailan Elsaid Feb 2025

The Impact Of Financial Inclusion On Inflation In The Mena Region: Oil Vs Non-Oil Countries, Jailan Elsaid

Theses and Dissertations

The study examines the impact of financial inclusion on inflation as a tool for monetary policy effectiveness in the MENA region, separating the analysis into oil and non-oil countries from 2004 to 2022. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is used to create a multidimensional index of financial inclusion through usage and access dimensions. Additionally, PVAR GMM estimation and Granger causality tests are implemented to analyze the dynamics and causality between financial inclusion and inflation, while controlling for other variables such as broad money, real effective exchange rate, and real GDP growth, which may influence the relationship according to the …

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Modeling Inflation Expectations In Forward-Looking Interest Rate And Money Growth Rules, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel Jan 2025

Modeling Inflation Expectations In Forward-Looking Interest Rate And Money Growth Rules, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel

Faculty Publications

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model, we establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR to obtain RE-consistent structural responses to identified monetary policy shocks. Our RE-SVAR framework facilitates a comparison across two alternative monetary policy indicators that accommodate long horizons in the formation of inflation expectations in the policy rule. We construct clouds of responses of inflation and economic activity to monetary …

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What Role Do Finance Ministers Play In Political Business Cycles? Evidence-Based On A New African Dataset, Christine Olivia Strong Jan 2025

What Role Do Finance Ministers Play In Political Business Cycles? Evidence-Based On A New African Dataset, Christine Olivia Strong

Economics Faculty Publications

This study investigates how the personal characteristics of finance ministers influence political budget cycles in Africa. Using a new dataset covering 300 finance ministers across 23 countries from 1980 to 2020, we find that political budget cycles primarily take the form of increased government consumption during election years. Ministers with prior central banking experience are less likely to amplify spending in election years, effectively curbing political budget cycles. These results remain consistent after accounting for institutional quality, ministerial tenure, and other confounding factors. The findings contribute to the literature by showing that the appointment of finance ministers in African countries …

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Effects Of Monetary Policy On Economic Growth: Evidence From Some Developing And Developed Economies, Collins Anosike Dec 2024

Effects Of Monetary Policy On Economic Growth: Evidence From Some Developing And Developed Economies, Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

The study examined the effects of monetary policy on the economic growth of some developing and developed economies. This study selected 33 countries grouped into 11 each as first-group, second-group, and third-group countries and showed how monetary policy has influenced their economic growth in the past 40 years, capturing the economic growth performances before and after the global financial crisis. This study is unique because it captures a broader range of countries compared to previous studies, uses updated data, and shows how monetary policy is transmitted through bank lending and financial intermediation. Furthermore, we use panel data and employ fixed …

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Monetary Policy In Good Times And In Bad: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan, Haider Ali Dec 2024

Monetary Policy In Good Times And In Bad: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan, Haider Ali

CBER Conference

A significant body of literature explores and establishes the impact of monetary policy on output and prices, at least in the short run. However, the subsequent question is whether this effect is symmetric concerning the various states of the economy (see, Tenreyro and Thwaites, 2016; Bernstein, 2021; Eichenbaum et al., 2022; among others). This study contributes to the literature on state-dependent (non-linear) effects of unanticipated monetary policy shocks according to two important features of the economy. The amount of slack in the economy and the amount of the public-sector footprint in the market. Evaluating state-dependent effects is crucial because assuming …

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A Comparative Study Of Indonesia And Malaysia's Economic Resilience In The Covid-19 Era: An Analysis Of Economic Stability, Muhammad Nur Abdul Latif Nur Latif Al Waroi Sep 2024

A Comparative Study Of Indonesia And Malaysia's Economic Resilience In The Covid-19 Era: An Analysis Of Economic Stability, Muhammad Nur Abdul Latif Nur Latif Al Waroi

Jurnal Kajian Stratejik Ketahanan Nasional

This study analyzes the economic resilience of Indonesia and Malaysia during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on economic stability. The research explores pre-pandemic economic conditions, the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, inflation, unemployment, and government debt, as well as recovery efforts through fiscal and monetary policies. Data from Statistics Indonesia, Department of Statistics Malaysia, World Bank, and IMF were used. Results indicate that Indonesia experienced a faster economic recovery, with GDP growth returning to pre-pandemic levels quicker than Malaysia. The economic impact of the pandemic in Indonesia is lower, supported by the National Economic Recovery Program (PEN) and Bank Indonesia's monetary …

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Climate Challenges: Central Banks In The Hot Seat – Rethinking Monetary Policy And Educational Activity, Łukasz Kurowski Aug 2024

Climate Challenges: Central Banks In The Hot Seat – Rethinking Monetary Policy And Educational Activity, Łukasz Kurowski

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

Global warming poses many challenges for all economic entities. The two main challenges facing all countries are climate change mitigation and adaptation. Central banks also face difficult tasks in this context. The difficulty stems from the impact of climate change on all sectors of the economy. Central banking has to deal with the new challenges created by climate change for monetary policy, macroprudential policy, but also climate education. The aim of the article is to verify to what extent climate change is considered in the central bank’s main objective – monetary policy. Therefore, the article examines the frequency with which …

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Three Essays On Financial Institutions And Financial Intermediation, Xinxin Zhang Aug 2024

Three Essays On Financial Institutions And Financial Intermediation, Xinxin Zhang

Theses and Dissertations

In the first essay, I examine the trading relationship between the manager of a collateralized loan obligation (CLO) deal and the borrowers and/or lenders of the underlying portfolio of the CLO deal. I investigate how these relationships affect the structure and pricing of CLO deals. I find that a stronger relationship between a CLO manager and either borrowers or lenders of loans in the underlying portfolio leads to a smaller equity tranche in the CLO deal and a lower yield spread of the AAA tranche, on average. These results suggest that the CLO manager uses private information from trading relationships …

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India And The Rest Of The World: Analyses Of International Monetary Policy Spillovers, Afees A. Salisu Jul 2024

India And The Rest Of The World: Analyses Of International Monetary Policy Spillovers, Afees A. Salisu

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The US is India's largest trading partner, followed by the European Union. Our study, using the GVAR model, shows that a US monetary policy (MP) shock results in a depreciation of the Indian currency vis-a-vis the dollar. This is due to Indian investors preferring to invest in the US, which provides higher returns during a US MP shock. The Eurozone MP shock does not have a significant impact due to the increasing dollarization of the Indian economy. However, the US MP shock propagation diminishes when there is economic policy uncertainty. Our findings have implications for monetary policy conduct in India.

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The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And The Stock Market Cycle: An Empirical Study In Vietnam, Nhung Thuy Tran Jul 2024

The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And The Stock Market Cycle: An Empirical Study In Vietnam, Nhung Thuy Tran

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The study examines the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle in Vietnam. Using data from 2007 to 2022 and employing a VAR model, we estimate the impact of monetary policy factors on stock market cycle variables. The findings confirm a two-way causal relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle. However, the influence of cyclical fluctuations on the monetary policy transmission mechanism is weak, exhibits a lag, and predominantly occurs in the medium and long term. These results indicate that Vietnam's monetary policy requires time to absorb financial shocks and adjust to economic conditions. The study …

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The Effect Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy On Public Debt In Egypt, Malak Mohamed Jun 2024

The Effect Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy On Public Debt In Egypt, Malak Mohamed

Theses and Dissertations

The thesis aims to examine the effect of monetary policies and fiscal policies on public debt in Egypt during the period from 2006 until 2021. Egypt is witnessing aggravated levels of debt, with limited fiscal and monetary space. Therefore, the objective of the paper is to analyze the effect of discount rates, inflation rates, subsidies, taxes and economic growth on debt-to-GDP in Egypt using a VAR model with an extended test of Impulse Response Function. The results suggest that a positive shock in government expenditures initially decreases public debt but leads to a fluctuating increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio in …

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Roger Altman’S 2008 Public Policy Analysis: At Fault Without The Blame, Isaac Deak Apr 2024

Roger Altman’S 2008 Public Policy Analysis: At Fault Without The Blame, Isaac Deak

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

Roger Altman published “Globalism in Retreat” in 2009, in which he offers analysis of the 2008 financial crisis, blaming free-markets and globalism as causes of the calamity, only to praise China’s “state-capitalism”, which he believes allowed the Chinese to emerge ahead of the globalists in recovery. This article, despite its age, provides a timeless example of a dangerous tendency in public policy. It demonstrates how policymakers can implement deleterious policies which result in inevitable crisis, and then, they subsequently escape blame by explaining away the crisis with bad analysis and even worse policy suggestions for the future. Policy suggestions, in …

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The Impact Of Monetary Policy Shocks: Do Not Rule Out Central Bank Information Effects Or Economic News, Sebastian Laumer, Italo Morais Santos Apr 2024

The Impact Of Monetary Policy Shocks: Do Not Rule Out Central Bank Information Effects Or Economic News, Sebastian Laumer, Italo Morais Santos

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper reassesses the impact of monetary policy and central bank information shocks while accounting for the influence of economic news. We regress a set of monetary policy surprises on a measure of economic news and incorporate these new instruments into an SVAR model. Furthermore, we distinguish between the two shocks via sign restrictions on the instruments’ impulse response functions. Our findings indicate significantly stronger and more enduring economic effects for monetary policy shocks, while the economic effects of central bank information shocks are weaker, if not vanish entirely. Nevertheless, persistent financial effects prevent us from completely dismissing the existence …

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Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc Feb 2024

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines whether inflation targeting (IT) anchors household and professional forecasters expectations in India. It investigates whether food and non-food inflation affect anchoring inflation expectations differently. Primarily, the results indicate significant decreases in the level and variability of expectations. Further, it provides evidence of successful anchoring for professional forecasters' and household expectations. However, it also found food inflation assist anchoring of expectations, while the non-food inflation doesn't. The results suggest the central bank to emphasize more on non-food inflation for better anchoring prospects. Additionally, the study identifies food inflation as the primary contributor to headline inflation variability.

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