Economics Commons^™

Bridging The Gap Between Career Expectations Versus Labor Market Realities, Reinette P. Madrid, Grethel T. Ledesma, Ignatius Aryono Putranto, Jyro B. Triviño

Leadership and Strategy Faculty Publications

Most students lack awareness regarding the labor market outcomes for their chosen college majors. This study aims to answer what factors affect the career expectations of graduating students at Quezon City University and how these expectations align with the prevailing labor market situation. It employed descriptive, causal, and explanatory research using a sample of 108 respondents from fourth-year information technology students for the school year 2021 to 2022. Eight of the nine null hypotheses were rejected by employing multinomial logistic and linear regression. Student fixed effects and other labor market outcomes significantly predicted salary, estimated stability, and estimated skills in …

Bayesian Linear, Heteroskedastic, Multilevel, And Dynamic Models For Assessing The Effects Of Policy Uncertainty, Green Finance, Innovation, And Environmental Stringency On Sustainable Economic Growth In Oecd Economies, Md Qamruzzaman, Abdulrahman Alomair, Abdulaziz S. Al Naim, Sylvia Kor

Student Publications [Scholarly]

This study analyzes how policy uncertainty, green finance, green innovation, and the stringency of environmental policy affect sustainable economic growth in OECD member countries from 1996 to 2023. Given the growing evidence that advanced economies are facing structural lock-ins, a lack of coherent policy credibility, and insufficient financial and innovative capabilities, the current study integrates these factors into a coherent empirical framework that continues to prevent disintegration in the current literature. Using environmentally adjusted multifactor productivity as a proxy for green economic growth, the analysis employs a panel of Bayesian econometric models that include linear, heteroskedastic, multilevel, random-effects, and panel …

Horizontal Regulatory Barriers In International Trade: Evidence From Electric Plugs, Yuan Mei, Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Domestic policies regulating the horizontal dimensions of product differentiation can impede international trade and have become a major concern in contemporary trade negotiations. We estimate trade frictions associated with incompatible designs of electric plugs, a well-known example of a horizontal regulatory barrier. Our findings indicate that fewer electronic devices are exported to destinations with incompatible electric plugs, and this effect operates through both the extensive margin and the intensive margin of exports. These results are further corroborated by an online survey of Chinese electronics exporters. Moreover, incompatible plugs are associated with lower average quality of exported electronic devices, suggesting that …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 29, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton, Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Public Rhetoric And Private Strategy: The World Bank's Relationship With Mexico Through The 1980s Debt Crisis, Phillip Purcell

Holster Scholar Projects

This project investigates how the World Bank's relationship with Mexico changed through the 1980s debt crisis and whether the institution's internal assessments differed from its public presentation. Drawing on archival memoranda, correspondence, briefing papers, and publicly available reports, the study compares World Bank deliberations with official statements and publications. It demonstrates that examining these private and public records together provides a clearer understanding of how the Bank formulated policy, exercised influence over Mexico's economic strategy, and responded to the challenges of debt, adjustment, and reform. More broadly, the project contributes to understanding the role of international financial institutions in shaping …

The Heterogeneous Impacts Of The Residential Component Of A Training Program: A Semi-Parametric Analysis, Jun Cai, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Xintong Wang

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Several training programs worldwide are residential, bringing enrollees to live in facilities and thus increasing program costs. In the U.S., the Job Corps (JC) program for disadvantaged youth includes a residential component. Despite extensive literature evaluating JC, the impact of the residential component has received limited attention. We develop and employ a semi-parametric model to estimate the average causal effects of this residential component, accounting for selection into both the program and the residential feature. Our findings indicate that, for JC enrollees, the residential component boosts earnings, employment, and educational degree attainment among adolescents. For other subgroups, the residential component …

Methodological Variations In Environmental Justice Screening Tools And Their Impact On Disadvantaged Community Designations, Thomas Robbins, Qingran Li, Stephen Bird

Faculty Publications

Government agencies in the United States have developed environmental justice screening tools (EJSTs) and designations to promote equitable distribution of benefits from environmental policies to disadvantaged communities (DACs). However, the methodological choices embedded in these tools, including the selection, weighting, and aggregation of environmental justice indicators, vary across EJSTs, and their implications for DAC designation outcomes are poorly understood. Here we systematically compare four EJSTs at the federal and state levels and show that these tools produce substantial variation in the DAC census tracts, with some tools emphasizing socioeconomic burdens while others prioritize environmental risks. Using quantitative regression models, we …

Metro Monitor 2026: Las Vegas And Reno, Nevada, Kevin Yang, Lara Karaalp, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents economic growth performance indicators in the Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV and Reno, NV metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), using data provided by the Brookings Institution’s Metro Monitor 2023  and 2026. The Metro Monitor explores five indicators of economic performance over ten year periods: the 2023 report provides data measuring the period from 2011 to 2021, while the 2026 report provides data measuring the period from 2014 to 2024. The Metro Monitor reports data on growth, prosperity, economic inclusion, racial inclusion, and geographic inclusion across 196 MSAs in the U.S.

Eliciting Information About Teacher Applicants Using Open-Ended Questions, Joseph Aguilar-Bohorquez, Dan Goldhaber, Cyrus Grout, Elton Mykerezi, Prayash Pathak, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Employers commonly use open-ended questions in hiring, but usually responses aren’t recorded, and knowledge about the usefulness of such responses is limited. This study investigates properties of written responses to open-ended questions collected over many years via an application tracking platform that school districts use to hire teachers. We develop a scalable process to discover topics within the corpus of responses to each question and then to classify each response with respect to the topics while preserving interpretability and transparency. It adapts a traditional qualitative topic modeling approach, Inductive Thematic Analysis, to best combine the strengths of researcher judgment and …

Benefits And Costs For Chattanooga Residents Of Incorporating Training Into Economic Development Strategies, Timothy J. Bartik, Iryna V. Lendel, Sevrin Williams

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report evaluates the benefit-cost tradeoffs of adding a workforce training component to Chattanooga's economic development incentive packages, using the Bartik Benefit-Cost Model of Business Incentives. Focusing on hypothetical projects across seven industries, the analysis compares the present value of training costs against resulting gains in residents' per capita income over a 20-year horizon. Findings show that training, layered onto existing PILOT-based tax incentives, delivers benefits more than 25 times its costs—driven by training's greater cost-effectiveness in inducing business location decisions and its stronger tendency to direct new jobs toward local residents. While training is not self-financing from a city …

Child Care Deserts In Mountain West Congressional Districts, 2024, Cason Noll, Yash Kalla, Yiselle Olivas Ruiz, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents data on child care deserts across 28 congressional districts in the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah as of 2024. The percentage of young children residing in a child care desert and the urban, suburban, or rural designation of each congressional district are included. The Center for American Progress (CAP) report, ‘America’s Child Care Crisis Leaves Many Families Without Access to Licensed Care,’ includes data on all 435 U.S. congressional districts.

The Columbus Promise: Three-Year Pilot Evaluation Report, Michelle Miller-Adams, Kyle Huisman, Kevin Hollenbeck, Bridget Timmeney

Reports

The Columbus Promise is a place-based, tuition-free college program designed to expand postsecondary access and economic mobility for graduates of Columbus City Schools. Launched with the high school class of 2022, the three-year pilot provides tuition support at Columbus State Community College (CSCC), a $500-per-semester stipend, and dedicated coaching and academic services. This evaluation, conducted by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, examines outcomes for all three cohorts (2022, 2023, and 2024), using administrative data, a comparison group of Columbus City Schools graduates from 2017–2021, regression-adjusted estimates of academic outcomes, and a synthetic difference-in-differences analysis of overall college enrollment. Findings …

From Disaster To Resilience: Developing Smart Settlements In The Himalayas, Keshav Bhattarai, Ambika P. Adhikari

Himalayan Research Papers Archive

Nepal’s catastrophic 26 August 2026 Bhote Koshi–Trishuli flood should be understood not only as a humanitarian tragedy but also as a potentially major turning point in updating national settlement and reconstruction policy. Engineers and scientists have described the floods as a glacier–bedrock collapse that triggered an ice-rock avalanche and debris flow. As per the live updates on September 7, 2026, the total death toll was 1,355, and 4,996 people were missing (The Hindu, 2026). Indian and Nepali rescuers worked urgently to locate and rescue people buried under hydropower tunnels, buildings, mud, and landslide debris.

UN News reported on September 3, …

Average Earnings Of Undergraduate Certificate Graduates In The Mountain West, 2024, Devin Streuter, Kahlen Coss, Kevin Yang, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Higher Education

This fact sheet presents data on the average earnings of undergraduate certificate program graduates in 2024 dollars compared to the average earnings of high school (HS) graduates in five Mountain West states: Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The fact sheet reports information on the number of undergraduate certificate programs, number of graduates, the most popular certificate programs, and earnings premiums for each state. Published by Open Campus in collaboration with The Higher Education Analytics (HEA) Group, the fact sheet reports data originally published through the “Certificate Earnings Explorer."

Matching And Mentoring: Effects Of Managers On Worker Productivity, Chengyuan Hua

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

This paper studies how managers matter for worker productivity by exploiting manager moves in Major League Baseball. I first show that manager effects are primarily match-specific using an AKM-type model. Then, staggered difference-in-differences results show positive effects of shared characteristics, including same position, both lefties, and same hometown. Effects of same position and both lefties are larger than same hometown. Effects are more pronounced for younger and less productive workers, indicating that mentoring is the primary mechanism while in-group bias is secondary. Finally, there is suggestive evidence that a manager’s productivity as a worker is not a positive characteristic.

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 10, Number 9, Thomas M. Fullerton, Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

(Wp 2026-04) The Concept Of Position And Its Ontological Meaning In The History Of Economics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper examines the concept of relative position in the history of economics understood as ‘being in a position’ in a structure of positions. This is first discussed in macro-distributional terms in connection with Ricardo and Marx and in micro-behavioral terms in connection with Du Bois and Veblen. The paper then discusses two recent approaches in economics that employ the concept of relative position in a combined macro-micro analysis: the capability approach and stratification economics. For explicitly ontological analysis of the concept, the paper compares three different interpretative strategies from outside economics: Cambridge social positioning theory, embodied and distributed cognition …

2026 Annual Report – Celebrating 40 Years Of Research Excellence, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report marks the 40th anniversary of the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research (ITRR) at the University of Montana, founded in 1987 as the research arm of the state's tourism and recreation industries and funded through a small share of the Lodging Facility Use Tax.

It covers the 2025 travel year, when 13.2 million nonresident visitors spent $5.6 billion in Montana, supporting 52,610 jobs and $360 million in state and local tax revenue. Featured studies cover the state's museums and paleontological sites, its $1.27 billion outfitting and guiding industry, and tourism's growing role in Eastern Montana's rural economies. Additional …

Catalysts For Third-Country Market Entry: The Role Of Preferential Trade Agreements, Qiugu He, Xuan Luo

Research Collection School Of Economics

Preferential trade agreement (PTA) membership is known to divert trade volumes away from nonmember (third) countries along the intensive margin of trade, yet much less is known about its effects on third-country market entry along the extensive margin of trade. This paper examines whether PTAs catalyze market entry into third countries, and more broadly whether PTAs create spillover effects beyond member countries that matter for development. Using bilateral trade data from 1948 to 2020, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy, and find that the third-country market entry rate rises by 2.1% when the origin country has a PTA partner in the …

Threshold Spatial Panel Regression With Fixed Effects, Xiaoyu Meng, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We introduce general estimation and inference methods for threshold spatial panel regression with two-way fixed effects in a diminishing-threshold-effects framework. A valid objective function is obtained through a simple adjustment on the concentrated quasi loglikelihood with fixed effects being concentrated out, which leads to a consistent estimation of all common parameters. We show that the estimation of threshold parameter has a negligible effect on the asymptotic distribution of the main parameter estimators and thereby regular inference methods apply, though a bias correction may be necessary. The limiting distribution of the threshold parameter estimator is shown to be non-regular and infeasible, …

Middle Class Affordability In The Mountain West, 2023, Kian Parikh, Krish Sharma, Mohit Pande, Kristian Thymianos, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents 2023 data on the share of middle-class households that can afford basic necessities in the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The Brookings Institution report, “In every corner of the country, the middle class struggles with affordability,” provides metropolitan-level estimates across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. This fact sheet focuses on middle class affordability data for the largest metro area in each Mountain West state and, where available, explores middle class affordability by race and ethnicity.

Hkc09 - Climate Change Increases Bilateral Trade Costs, Maximilian Huppertz

Oberlin College Kasper Economics and Business Working Paper Series

It is well established that climate change affects productivity, but its effects on trade costs have not been studied. I combine international trade and weather data covering 190 years and show how an augmented gravity framework can be used to estimate the impact of climate change on bilateral trade cost. I find that climate change, as measured by decadal temperature shifts at the origin or destination country, increases them. Adaptation to these changes seems slow. They appear to be driven by impacts on maritime trade in particular, perhaps due to the vulnerability of seaports to climate change. Combining these results …

Connecting Families Through Cash Transfers And An Enabling Environment In Colombia, Mexico, And The Philippines: A Qualitative Study, Johanna K P Greeson, John Gyourko, Sarah Wasch, Kristin Mallory, Lory Fehlig, Cesar Jácome, Nestor David Lara Yanes, Fátima Areli Ruiz Gutiérrez, Dennis Guamos, Adele R. Lehman

Faculty Scholarship

Nearly 700 million people worldwide live in extreme poverty, and almost half of the world’s population lives below the poverty line. Cash transfer programs are increasingly used to address poverty’s effects on family well-being, yet less is known about how families experience programs that combine cash transfers with peer-driven mutual aid. Children International’s (CI) Community Independence Initiative (CII) provides conditional cash transfers and promotes family-led goal setting, mutual support, and shared learning. This qualitative study explored how families in Colombia, Mexico, and the Philippines experienced CII and made meaning of its material and relational components. We conducted focus groups with …

Do Nonprofit Ratings Help Donors Make Better Decisions?, Ashraf Haque

Center for Policy Research

Nonprofit organizations depend on donations to fulfill their missions, but donors choosing among 1.8 million U.S. public charities often lack the time or capacity to evaluate which organizations are actually performing well. This brief summarizes findings from a study that used a five-year panel dataset of over one million nonprofit-year records from GuideStar (2014–2018) to examine how transparency seal ratings affect donation behavior. The author finds that having any GuideStar seal increases donations by about 7% compared to having no seal, and that platinum-rated nonprofits receive 34% more in donations than unrated organizations, regardless of actual organizational quality. Donors do …

Credence Goods In Markets With Collective Reputation: Nature Of Equilibria And The Value Of Certification, Erin Krupka, Thomas P. Lyon, Arnab Mitra

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Fraud can cause markets for credence goods to collapse, but collective reputation has been suggested as a potential solution, especially when buyer valuations for quality are high. We develop a discrete model of a market for label credence goods and provide conditions for no-fraud equilibria based on collective reputation. We identify conditions under which all equilibria may be asymmetric or involve mixed strategies and hence sellers may face coordination problems. Our analysis suggests such coordination problems are the greatest when the size of the high-quality market is approximately half of the overall market (that incorporates both high- and low-quality goods), …

The Mundlak Estimator In A Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper shows that the classic Mundlak (1978) result where the random effects estimator reduces to the fixed effects estimator when the regressors are all correlated with the individual effects, may not hold if the remainder disturbances have a general serial correlation variance-covariance matrix. This includes the popular AR(1), MA(1) and ARMA(p, q) processes for serial correlation. This is illustrated with an empirical example for the AR(1) case.

Can The Safety Net Support Families Through Childbirth?, Hyojeong Kim, Colleen Heflin, Taryn Morrissey

Center for Policy Research

Childbirth is a life event that often disrupts maternal employment and household earnings just as family expenses increase. In the United States, families do not have access to a national paid parental leave program and must rely on a patchwork of safety net programs that were not designed specifically to support households during pregnancy and the immediate postpartum period. This brief uses linked administrative data from the Virginia Longitudinal Data System (2016–2021) to describe changes in household earnings and social welfare benefits before and after childbirth among low-income mothers receiving the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or Temporary Assistance for …

Trust, Delegation, And Alignment In Human-Ai Decision Making, Erik O. Kimbrough, Brennan Mcdavid, Diba Vazirian

ESI Working Papers

This paper studies delegation to artificial intelligence in a setting where human principals retain the consequences of delegated choices. Participants wrote prompts instructing ChatGPT-4o mini how to choose on their behalf in three canonical economic domains: risky choice, intertemporal choice, and social allocation. We then elicited the compensation participants required to let the AI’s choices count for payment and compared participants’ own choices to choices generated from their prompts. The design produces two central empirical objects: a revealed measure of reluctance to delegate, captured by willingness to accept compensation for AI delegation, and a behavioral measure of alignment, captured by …

The Lottery You Do Not Want To Win: The Role Of Local Institutional Quality In Brazil's Fight Against The Persistent Transmission Of Poverty, Adaye Sosthene Yvan N'Guettia

Economics Honors Projects

When does improving local institutions increase the poverty-reducing effectiveness of transfers? This paper examines whether federal oversight strengthens municipal administration of anti-poverty programs in Brazil. I develop a governance model in which incumbents allocate resources across diversion, effort, and institutional investment under audits and incentives. Using exogenous variation from Brazil's random CGU audit lottery across 5,500 municipalities, I find audits reduce irregularities, strengthen capacity, improve nutritional monitoring and school infrastructure, and reduce extreme poverty — with effects largest in municipalities with weakest institutions. A marginal-value-of-public-funds analysis confirms the program is self-financing. Results show the poverty-reducing power of transfers depends critically …

Gross Metropolitan Product (Gmp) And Gross State Product (Gsp) In The Mountain West, 2024, Devin Streuter, Phillip Seo, Zafeen Boulware, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents 2024 Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) and Gross State Product (GSP) data for five Mountain West states: Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, and selected metros in these states. The data are derived from a report by the United States Conference of Mayors titled, “U.S. Metro Economies Annual Report and Forecast June 2025."