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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Do Nonprofit Ratings Help Donors Make Better Decisions?, Ashraf Haque Aug 2026

Do Nonprofit Ratings Help Donors Make Better Decisions?, Ashraf Haque

Center for Policy Research

Nonprofit organizations depend on donations to fulfill their missions, but donors choosing among 1.8 million U.S. public charities often lack the time or capacity to evaluate which organizations are actually performing well. This brief summarizes findings from a study that used a five-year panel dataset of over one million nonprofit-year records from GuideStar (2014–2018) to examine how transparency seal ratings affect donation behavior. The author finds that having any GuideStar seal increases donations by about 7% compared to having no seal, and that platinum-rated nonprofits receive 34% more in donations than unrated organizations, regardless of actual organizational quality. Donors do …


The Mundlak Estimator In A Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu Aug 2026

The Mundlak Estimator In A Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper shows that the classic Mundlak (1978) result where the random effects estimator reduces to the fixed effects estimator when the regressors are all correlated with the individual effects, may not hold if the remainder disturbances have a general serial correlation variance-covariance matrix. This includes the popular AR(1), MA(1) and ARMA(p, q) processes for serial correlation. This is illustrated with an empirical example for the AR(1) case.


Can The Safety Net Support Families Through Childbirth?, Hyojeong Kim, Colleen Heflin, Taryn Morrissey Aug 2026

Can The Safety Net Support Families Through Childbirth?, Hyojeong Kim, Colleen Heflin, Taryn Morrissey

Center for Policy Research

Childbirth is a life event that often disrupts maternal employment and household earnings just as family expenses increase. In the United States, families do not have access to a national paid parental leave program and must rely on a patchwork of safety net programs that were not designed specifically to support households during pregnancy and the immediate postpartum period. This brief uses linked administrative data from the Virginia Longitudinal Data System (2016–2021) to describe changes in household earnings and social welfare benefits before and after childbirth among low-income mothers receiving the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or Temporary Assistance for …


Should We Flee? The Mortality And Economic Impacts Of Hurricane Evacuation Orders, Lucas Kaplan Jul 2026

Should We Flee? The Mortality And Economic Impacts Of Hurricane Evacuation Orders, Lucas Kaplan

Center for Policy Research

I estimate the mortality and county-level regional economic impacts of hurricane evacuation orders using a novel instrumental variables framework. Relative to similarly affected but non-evacuated areas, evacuated counties experience fewer deaths but lower personal income, employment, and business establishments into the second year following the storm, likely stemming from delayed returns in wealthier neighborhoods. I then develop a threshold decision rule that balances the mortality benefits against these persistent economic costs and apply this framework to orders issued from 2016–2022. Incorporating these persistent economic costs alters policy evaluation: the largest orders generate net benefits that dwarf their costs, but the …


An Introduction To The China Land Sales Data Set: The Universe Of Land-Use-Right Transfers In China 2000-2022, Yilin Hou, Lin Li, Qiang Ren Jul 2026

An Introduction To The China Land Sales Data Set: The Universe Of Land-Use-Right Transfers In China 2000-2022, Yilin Hou, Lin Li, Qiang Ren

Center for Policy Research

The China Land Sales Data Set (2000-2022) includes the universe of land-use-right sales in China in the first 23 years of the 21st century, a period of the fastest mass urbanization and intense infrastructure construction in China’s history, that accompanied the rapid growth of China’s economy and household income. For this reason, this data set carries substance in many ways for anyone who needs to understand the occurrences in China of that period. The phrase “land sale” refers to the transfer of land-use right from the state as the sole owner of urban land to any individual, firm or entity …


The Effect Of Retention Threat On Student Learning Gains: Evidence From Ohio, Sarah Souders, Robert Bifulco Jul 2026

The Effect Of Retention Threat On Student Learning Gains: Evidence From Ohio, Sarah Souders, Robert Bifulco

Center for Policy Research

Grade retention policies create incentives for students to make adequate progress ahead of evaluation. The threat of retention thus has the potential to affect all students’ academic outcomes, increasing achievement especially among students with test scores near the retention policy’s threshold. By using unique data from Ohio which allows us to implement a regression discontinuity design, we find that students exposed to the threat of retention in Grade 3 experience larger learning gains than students who are not under retention threat. Gains in Grade 3 English Language Arts (ELA) are 0.077 SD and although effects partially fade over time, positive …


Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul Mar 2026

Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul

Center for Policy Research

This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the …


Reared In Disaster: The Long-Run Harm From Childhood Storm Exposure, Lucas Kaplan Mar 2026

Reared In Disaster: The Long-Run Harm From Childhood Storm Exposure, Lucas Kaplan

Center for Policy Research

I estimate how exposure to natural disasters in childhood shapes earnings and schooling later in life, using newly assembled county-date disaster records dating back to 1951 linked to residential histories in the NLSY79. I compare adult outcomes for children who are born in the same county but due to disaster timing experience different amounts of exposure, finding that severe and repeat disasters reduce earnings. I show that school-age disaster exposure drives long-run harm: exposure between ages 5 and 10 reduces educational attainment, while exposure between ages 10 and 15 reduces adult earnings. Finally, Black individuals suffer larger earnings losses than …


Time Invariant Variables In The Mundlak And Hausman-Taylor Panel Data Models, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu Mar 2026

Time Invariant Variables In The Mundlak And Hausman-Taylor Panel Data Models, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper shows that the classic augmented Mundlak (1978) regression yields the between estimator for time-invariant variables. It is well known that the estimates of the time varying variables yield the fixed effects estimates. While the latter are consistent for this correlated random effects model, the between estimates are not. The between estimator is consistent only when the Hausman (1978) test does not reject the null based on between versus fixed effects. An alternative modified Hausman and Taylor (1981) estimator is proposed. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to compare various estimators under a correlated random effects as well as a …


Two Special Spatial Weight Matrices And Their Effects On Estimation And Testing In Spatial Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu Mar 2026

Two Special Spatial Weight Matrices And Their Effects On Estimation And Testing In Spatial Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper collects in one place some of the consequences of using two special spatial weight matrices in the spatial econometrics literature. The two weight matrices considered are the equal weight spatial matrix and the complete bipartite network. In particular, we summarize the effects of these special weight matrices on the statistical properties of commonly used spatial estimators as well as commonly used tests for spatial dependence.


Immigration Enforcement And Origin Country Labor Markets, Thomas Pearson Mar 2026

Immigration Enforcement And Origin Country Labor Markets, Thomas Pearson

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies how increased immigration enforcement in the destination country impacts labor markets in the origin country. Using variation in Mexican migrant networks and Secure Communities (SC), a policy which expanded local immigration enforcement, I show that the deportation of Mexican migrants from the U.S. increases return migration to Mexico and decreases monthly earnings for workers in Mexico. The negative earnings effects are largest for workers most similar to return migrants in terms of their demographics, occupations, and employment types, and are consistent with increased labor market competition.


Hold Harmless For Whom? The Impact Of Covid Era Policies On School Funding, Teachers, And Students, Michah W. Rothbart, Samantha Cervantes, Amy Ellen Schwartz Feb 2026

Hold Harmless For Whom? The Impact Of Covid Era Policies On School Funding, Teachers, And Students, Michah W. Rothbart, Samantha Cervantes, Amy Ellen Schwartz

Center for Policy Research

This study evaluates the fiscal and academic consequences of New York City’s hold harmless policy during COVID-19, which aimed to stabilize school expenditures amid unexpected enrollment declines by restoring schools’ funding up to initial levels. We examine how school racial composition predicts whether or when schools receive hold harmless “treatment” and assess the impact of hold harmless on financial resources, staffing, and student outcomes, exploring heterogeneity by timing of policy announcement. Although schools with higher White student shares were no more likely than those with higher Hispanic or Black shares to receive hold harmless funds, schools with higher Black shares …


Encouraging Naturalization: The Broader Effects Of Daca On U.S. Immigration, Emily Battaglia, Thomas Pearson Feb 2026

Encouraging Naturalization: The Broader Effects Of Daca On U.S. Immigration, Emily Battaglia, Thomas Pearson

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines how protection from deportation and work authorization affect immigration outcomes, focusing on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Using a difference-in-differences design exploiting geographic variation in exposure to DACA-eligible immigrants, we find that DACA significantly increased the number of naturalized citizens without increasing the number of noncitizens. This increase is driven by higher naturalization among prior noncitizens, most of whom are likely not DACA beneficiaries. We provide evidence consistent with DACA increasing incentives for, and reducing barriers to, naturalization by protecting undocumented DACA-eligible contacts, suggesting temporary protections can encourage longer-term commitments and permanent residence among existing immigrants.


On The Legal-Theoretical Foundations Of Property Taxation Under State Ownership Of Land, Tianke Ban, Yilin Hou, Ping Zhang Feb 2026

On The Legal-Theoretical Foundations Of Property Taxation Under State Ownership Of Land, Tianke Ban, Yilin Hou, Ping Zhang

Center for Policy Research

The general public and even some scholars challenge the legitimacy of levying the property tax under conditions where land is state-owned and multi-year land-use fees have already been collected at the time of house sales. This challenge points to the legal- theoretical foundations of property taxation: the core issue is whether the rights and economic utility of China's construction land-use-rights (CLUR) are sufficient to be treated as the object of property tax levy. China's Civil Law stipulates that CLUR holders have the rights to possess, use, and profit from the land during their use period, as well as the right …


Student Disruptions And Teacher Turnover, Kyuhan Choi, Ying Shi, Maria Zhu Jan 2026

Student Disruptions And Teacher Turnover, Kyuhan Choi, Ying Shi, Maria Zhu

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines how exposure to disruptive students affects teacher retention using linked teacher–student administrative records from North Carolina. To address non-random classroom assignment, we instrument for classroom exposure using the school-by-grade share of disruptive students based on prior-year disciplinary infractions. A 10 percentage point increase in the share of disruptive students raises the probability of an early-career teacher leaving the school in the following year by 1.0 percentage points. Notably, working in a school environment with supportive leadership and greater teacher autonomy, particularly around student conduct policies, mitigates the impact of student disruptions.


Urban Sprawl And Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence From Indonesia And The Philippines, Yi Jiang, Taylor Lathrop, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Yao Wang Jan 2026

Urban Sprawl And Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence From Indonesia And The Philippines, Yi Jiang, Taylor Lathrop, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Yao Wang

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies how neighborhood density affects residential carbon emissions, using detailed data from Indonesia and the Philippines. To address simultaneity, we instrument density with soil characteristics, and to address sorting, we control for community averages of observed characteristics. Unlike cities in developed countries, we find that density is positively correlated with residential energy use. After controlling for sorting, we find a precise null relationship between density and residential carbon emissions. Our results suggest that policies to control urban sprawl may not be successful in reducing residential carbon emissions in developing country cities.


Can Schools Sustain The Rising Cost Of Retiree Health Care?, Robert Bifulco, Iuliia Shybalkina Dec 2025

Can Schools Sustain The Rising Cost Of Retiree Health Care?, Robert Bifulco, Iuliia Shybalkina

Center for Policy Research

Many New York State school districts spend significant amounts each year for retiree health care benefits, and these payments are expected to grow over the coming decades. This brief summarizes findings from a study examining approximately 300 New York State school districts. Unlike retiree pension plans, which are typically prefunded, retiree health care benefits are funded on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning that benefits for past employees who are currently retired are paid using current district revenues. In the average school district, pay-as-you-go spending currently amounts to 4.5 percent of district revenues. Assuming current benefit and funding policies remain, spending is …


A Capital Idea? The Welfare Effects Of Relocating Indonesia’S Government To A New City, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Radine Rafols, Yao Wang, Yi Jiang Nov 2025

A Capital Idea? The Welfare Effects Of Relocating Indonesia’S Government To A New City, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Radine Rafols, Yao Wang, Yi Jiang

Center for Policy Research

Many developing countries are planning to create new capital cities, a place-making policy designed to alleviate congestion and respond to climate change. To evaluate growth and welfare effects, we specify a dynamic quantitative spatial model with public employment, informality, fiscal transfers, and frictions in trade and migration. We calibrate the model with data from Indonesia and conduct policy experiments studying the creation of Nusantara in East Kalimantan. Despite increasing employment in the new capital region, we find that building Nusantara reduces national growth and welfare. Climate change attenuates its negative welfare effects, but only slightly.


China’S Turn To Domestic-Led Growth: Replacing Consumption Taxes With Land Taxes?, Yilin Hou, Michael Kumhof, Lei Shao Oct 2025

China’S Turn To Domestic-Led Growth: Replacing Consumption Taxes With Land Taxes?, Yilin Hou, Michael Kumhof, Lei Shao

Center for Policy Research

As part of its turn towards domestic-led growth China plans to stimulate consumption, including through a reduction in consumption taxes. We compare two model-based scenarios in which the revenue losses from lower consumption taxes are replaced by higher income taxes or higher land taxes. The model is carefully calibrated to recent Chinese data, including detailed fiscal data. We find that higher income taxes lead to significant losses in output and incomes, while higher land taxes lead to significant gains. These gains are increasing in the share of land in net wealth, a statistic for which better data would be invaluable.


Rising Waters, Falling Taxes: The Impact Of Hurricane Sandy On Property Tax Assessments In New York City, Wei Guo, Qing Miao, Yusun Kim, Yilin Hou Sep 2025

Rising Waters, Falling Taxes: The Impact Of Hurricane Sandy On Property Tax Assessments In New York City, Wei Guo, Qing Miao, Yusun Kim, Yilin Hou

Center for Policy Research

Climate disasters pose fiscal challenges for local governments by increasing recovery costs and demand for property tax relief. Homeowners with or without property damage face tax burdens that may not match changes to their property value. This study examines the impact of Hurricane Sandy on property values and tax assessments in New York City. Using a difference-in-differences approach and comprehensive property-level data, we find that (1) inundated properties faced greater tax burdens due to limited declines in taxable value; (2) unaffected properties in flood zones saw tax burden increases due to declining market values and unchanged taxable values; and (3) …


Debt Accumulation In Fossil Fuel-Reliant Localities During The Shale Boom And Implications For The Energy Transition, Brandon Charles Sep 2025

Debt Accumulation In Fossil Fuel-Reliant Localities During The Shale Boom And Implications For The Energy Transition, Brandon Charles

Center for Policy Research

The energy transition away from fossil fuels poses long-term economic risks for communities reliant on oil and natural gas production and some may face exceptionally difficult challenges in adapting to the change. Bonds issued by these localities during the shale boom may undermine their financial resilience as shale activity dwindles. Declining tax revenue may undermine their ability to service the debt and maintain the associated physical assets. This study addresses the extent to which local governments in oil- and natural gas-producing communities accumulated significantly more municipal debt during the shale boom than other communities. The analysis uses bond issuance data …


Education And Fertility: Evidence From An Instrumental Variable Approach Using Higher Education Expansions In Turkey, Badi H. Baltagi, Haci M. Karatas Sep 2025

Education And Fertility: Evidence From An Instrumental Variable Approach Using Higher Education Expansions In Turkey, Badi H. Baltagi, Haci M. Karatas

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines the impact of higher education on women’s fertility behavior in Turkey. To address the endogeneity of education we use the plausibly exogenous variation in college availability in Turkey between 1983 and 2000. We find that increased education of women in Turkey significantly reduced the number of children and increased the probability of childlessness at the end of the fecund period. The effect of education on fertility worked through a postponement in first births at ages following college graduation until the age of 35, an improvement in women’s labor market outcomes, better marriage market outcomes, and use of …


The Basics Of The Mundlak And Chamberlain Projections, Badi H. Baltagi, Tom Wansbeek Sep 2025

The Basics Of The Mundlak And Chamberlain Projections, Badi H. Baltagi, Tom Wansbeek

Center for Policy Research

One of the best-known results in panel data econometrics, due to Mundlak (1978), is the equality of the random-effects and fixed-effects estimators when the individual effects are correlated with the means over time of the regressors. Chamberlain (1980) showed that the same result holds when the individual effects are correlated with the regressors for all moments in time separately. In this chapter, we review basic elements of the Mundlak and Chamberlain projections. We emphasize the simplicity that is often obtained when the model is transformed into the within and between-model, following Arellano (1993). Topics that we discuss include the augmented …


Estimation Of Serially Correlated Error Components Models Using Whittle’S Approximate Maximum Likelihood Method, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Jean-Michel Etienne Sep 2025

Estimation Of Serially Correlated Error Components Models Using Whittle’S Approximate Maximum Likelihood Method, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Jean-Michel Etienne

Center for Policy Research

This chapter studies the estimation of error components models with serial correlation of the 𝐴𝑅𝑀𝐴(𝑝, 𝑞) type using Whittle’s (Whittle, 1953) approximate maximum likelihood method. This is done for the one-way and two-way error components panel data model. Monte Carlo simulations are performed that investigate the small sample performance of this method.


Two-Way Random Effects Model With Serial Correlation, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Jean-Michel Etienne May 2025

Two-Way Random Effects Model With Serial Correlation, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Jean-Michel Etienne

Center for Policy Research

This paper derives a feasible GLS estimator for a two-way error component model with serial correlation on both the time effects as well as the remainder disturbances. This estimator is based on two methods, one proposed by De Porres and Krishnakumar (2013) for deriving the spectral decomposition of a general error component structure and the other based on an inversion trick for the variance-covariance matrix of this model suggested by Skoglund and Karlsson (2001). While the last paper used maximum likelihood methods under the normality assumption, we use method of moments estimators following Baltagi and Li (1991) for the one-way …


Estimation And Testing In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu May 2025

Estimation And Testing In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper revisits the fixed effects panel data model with AR(1) remainder disturbances and provides a bias corrected estimator for the serial correlation coefficient based on first differencing the panel regression to get rid of the fixed effects. This bias corrected estimator builds upon the estimator proposed by Han and Phillips (2010). Asymptotic properties as well as Monte Carlo results are provided that show the better performance of this new proposed bias corrected estimator. This is extended to the unbalanced panel data case and also illustrated using the empirical application in Donohue and Levitt (2001).


How Can Public Sector Employers Improve The Effectiveness Of Email Recruitment?, Leonard M. Lopoo, Robert Bifulco, Hannah Patnaik, Ashraf Haque, Christine Ashby, George Theoharis Apr 2025

How Can Public Sector Employers Improve The Effectiveness Of Email Recruitment?, Leonard M. Lopoo, Robert Bifulco, Hannah Patnaik, Ashraf Haque, Christine Ashby, George Theoharis

Center for Policy Research

With the constant deluge of listservs, email advertisements, and phishing scams, many email recipients have become accustomed to deleting emails from unknown sources without ever reading them. Knowing what can increase the likelihood of email engagement may improve the effectiveness of email communications in job recruitment. This brief summarizes findings from a study that reports results from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a mass email campaign to recruit applicants for a training program for K-12 teaching jobs. The authors compared email open rates between emails that contained a letter with university logos signed by a university official versus emails …


Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation In A Spatial Lag Model Under A Complete Bipartite Network, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu Apr 2025

Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation In A Spatial Lag Model Under A Complete Bipartite Network, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper considers a spatial lag model with a complete bipartite network weighting matrix which is important in network theory. We show that two-stage least squares is equivalent to ordinary least squares and both estimators are inconsistent for the cross-section data case. This result has also been derived for the spatial lag model with an equal weight matrix by Kelejian and Prucha (2002). We also show that the fixed effects two-stage least squares estimator is consistent in case we have panel data and the spatial lag model includes time fixed effects. This is different from the result for an equal …


Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels With Multiple Structural Changes, Badi H. Baltagi, Qu Feng, Wei Wang Mar 2025

Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels With Multiple Structural Changes, Badi H. Baltagi, Qu Feng, Wei Wang

Center for Policy Research

Nonstationary panels have been widely used in empirical studies in macroeconomics and finance. This paper considers multiple structural changes in nonstationary heterogeneous panels with common factors. Kapetanios, Pesaran, Yamagata (2011) showed that unobserved nonstationary factors can be proxied by cross-sectional averages of observable data. This means that unobserved error factors can be treated as additional regressors, and different break points in slopes and error factor loadings can be considered as multiple breaks in linear regression models with panel data. We generalize the least squares approach by Bai and Perron (1998) to nonstationary panels and show that the break points in …


Testing For Spatial Correlation Under A Complete Bipartite Network, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu Jul 2024

Testing For Spatial Correlation Under A Complete Bipartite Network, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This note shows that for a spatial regression with a weight matrix depicting a complete bipartite network, the Moran I test for zero spatial correlation is never rejected when the alternative is positive spatial correlation no matter how large the true value of the spatial correlation coefficient. In contrast, the null hypothesis of zero spatial correlation is always rejected (with probability one asymptotically) when the alternative is negative spatial correlation and the true value of the spatial correlation coefficient is near -1.