Economics Commons^™

Civilian Mass Killings Perpetrated By Nonstate Actors: Data Trends And Theoretical And Empirical Risk Factors, Charles H. Anderton, Roxane A. Anderton

Economics

This article addresses two research questions: (1) What are recent trends in nonstate actor (NSA) civilian mass killings by country locations and perpetrator groups? and (2) What are risk factors for NSA civilian mass killings based on economic choice theory and large-sample empirical inquiry? We summarize recent data on mass killings perpetrated by various NSAs including rebel groups; political, territorial, and identity militias; and terrorist organizations. Following a review of the empirical NSA mass killing literature, we develop an economic choice model of a NSA's resource allocations to direct (military) fighting and to violence against civilians when in contestation with …

Supply Constraints And Domestic Migration As Drivers Of U.S. Housing Price Appreciation, Vasu Patel

Economics

When the Federal Reserve raised rates from near zero to 525 basis points between 2022 and 2023, standard theory predicted a broad correction in U.S. housing market. In most metropolitan areas, that correction did not arrive. This paper examines why housing price appreciation persisted across cities with fundamentally different structural characteristics, and which factors best explain the cross-city variation in appreciation rates observed across the nation. Using a panel of 83 Metropolitan Statistical Areas across four symmetric 24-month periods from December 2017 through December 2025, each aligned with a distinct Federal Reserve rate period, the study estimates OLS models with …

Behavioural And Socioeconomic Drivers Underlying Solar Adoption In Egypt’S Cairo And Giza: A Micro-Level Perspective, Maha Elhini, Hoda Hassaballa, Rasha Hammam

Economics

Although Egypt falls within the solar belt, solar energy use on the household level remains very sparse. This research examines the factors driving and hindering households’ willingness to shift from fossil fuels to solar energy. The study evaluates the socioeconomic determinants of households’ willingness to adopt photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, based on a random distribution of 301 questionnaires in Cairo and Giza – two of Egypt’s most densely populated governorates. Two models were used─ a Logistic Model and a Structural Equations Model (SEM) that regresses the willingness to install PV panels on household characteristics. For a deeper analysis of how …

Air Pollution And Intimate Partner Violence In India, Siddharth Kishore, Magda Tsaneva, Uttara Balakrishnan

Economics

We combine individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Survey for India with high-resolution spatial data on air pollutants to investigate how exposure to high levels of PM2.5 influences spousal violence. For identification, we use atmospheric wind directions as an instrument for local pollution concentrations. We find that a 10 increase in PM2.5 levels has a statistically significant impact on intimate partner violence, raising the incidence of any violence by 4.7% over the sample mean. Heterogeneity analysis shows the effects are concentrated among rural households and poor households. We also find that air pollution in rural areas is associated with …

International Cocoa Trading Arrangements Between Industrialised And Developing Countries 1951–1999: A Structural Gravity Analysis, John Brown, Xenia Matschke, Juan René Rojas Rodríguez

Economics

Using a state-of-the-art structural gravity model, we investigate the impact of various (post-)colonial cocoa trading arrangements on the cocoa trade between developing cocoa producer countries and rich industrial cocoa consumer nations in the time period 1951–1999. We find that in particular the trading arrangements of the European (Economic) Community (EEC/EC), such as the Association, Yaoundé and Lomé Agreements, as well as the UNCTAD International Cocoa Agreement, had a measurable positive impact on cocoa trade flows, in contrast to the British Commonwealth partnership or the GATT Generalised System of Preferences. In particular, the Yaoundé Agreement not only increased the trade between …

Do Variations In State Consultation Programs Affect Construction Fatality Rates?, Wayne B. Gray

Economics

Background: Along with its enforcement program, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has a voluntary consultation program that responds to requests from firms to identify hazards at their workplaces. We studied the effects of this program on fatal work injuries in the construction industry. Methods: We first examined differences across states in their consultation programs using data from 2016 through 2022, during which time 47,418 consultation visits were conducted in construction. These included differences in frequency of consultation visits at construction firms, the average number of hazards identified per visit, and the scope of those visits. We then used …

Cooperative Agreement Between Countries Of The North Atlantic Ocean Reduces Marine Plastic Pollution But With Unequal Economic Benefits, Nicola J. Beaumont, Tobias Börger, James R. Clark, Nick Hanley, Robert Johnston, Keila Meginnis, Christopher Stapenhurst, Frans P. De Vries

Economics

Plastic pollution in the world’s oceans threatens ecosystems and biodiversity. The connected nature of the marine environment suggests that coordinated actions by countries sharing an ocean border may provide more effective pollution control than unilateral actions by any one country. However, countries often fail to cooperate, even when joint economic benefits would be higher under cooperation. Here we present a modelling framework to determine the potential economic benefits of cooperative marine plastic pollution management. The framework integrates an estimated plastic transfer matrix from a particle tracking model with game theory to derive the economic benefits of international cooperation for 16 …

Trade Dependency And Resilience: An Analysis Of Egypt’S Wheat Import Dynamics During The Russia-Ukraine War, Maha Elhini, Jomana M. Eiisa, Rasha Hammam

Economics

Purpose

Provided that Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer, the conflict between its primary suppliers presents significant challenges to its trade stability and food security. This paper aims to investigate the impacts of the Russia–Ukraine (RU) war on Egypt’s trade dynamics, with a particular focus on wheat imports over the period 1995–2023.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model to estimate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Egypt’s trade performance, as well as agricultural determinants and wheat import dynamics.

Findings

The empirical results show that Egypt’s GDP growth rate and its exchange rate have …

Introduction To The Special Issue: Cities And Economic Development, Shihe Fu, Junfu Zhang

Economics

To a great extent, economic development is urban development. As economies grow, people and firms cluster in cities to take advantage of agglomeration economies, better infrastructure, access to markets and labor, and consumption amenities. Urbanization not only drives productivity gains and enhances consumer welfare but also introduces challenges such as housing affordability, traffic congestion, pollution, and inequality. Understanding these dynamics is essential for promoting efficiency and sustainable development. The evolution of cities is therefore not only a reflection of economic progress but also a key driver of it.

The Value Of A Value: The Benefits Of Improved Decision Making Informed By Non-Market Valuation, David J. Pannell, Robert Johnston, Michael P. Burton, Md Sayed Iftekhar, Abbie A. Rogers, Cheryl Day

Economics

Information on non-market values has the potential to improve decision making but approaches to measure these values are costly and may be inaccurate. This study develops a Bayesian value of information (VOI) model to evaluate when and if the benefit of conducting a non-market valuation (NMV) study exceeds the cost, and which method of those considered delivers the highest expected net benefit. The approach is illustrated using a water quality improvement decision, with VOI estimated for stated preference, revealed preference and benefit transfer methods, the first two implemented at varying degrees of best practice. Information on the anticipated accuracy of …

Missing Piece Of The Pie: Public Expenditure On Education In Colombia, Ashante Gallimore

Economics

Public expenditure on education in Colombia is a crucial driver of socioeconomic development, with government investments that are aimed at improving access, quality, and equity across all levels of education. This thesis examines how these funds are distributed by analyzing whether financial resources are concentrated in wealthier areas or equitably distributed between wealthier and less fortunate Colombian regions. Using a comparative qualitative analysis, this study examines the sources of educational funding, the decision-making processes behind allocation, and how schools make use of their resources. A particular focus is on why primary education receives a larger share of funding compared to …

How Important Are Labor-Market Gender Gaps In The South Caucasus?, Marc Teignier, David Cuberes

Economics

In this paper, we use survey data from the South Caucasus countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) to document the presence of gender gaps in the labor market and examine its consequences. To do the analysis, we use a numerical general-equilibrium occupational choice model with heterogeneous agents in entrepreneurial ability. We then introduce the observed gender gaps in labor-force participants, employers, and self-employed. We find that entrepreneurship gender gaps cause an average GDP loss of 6.2%, while gender gaps in labor-force participation cause an average GDP loss of 9%. Armenia (2007) displays the largest total loss and Georgia (2007, 2014) the …

Evaluating India’S Fdi As A Nonparticipant In The Belt And Roadinitiative: Synthetic Control Method Analysis, Eman Elish, Hossameldin Ahmed Dr

Economics

Purpose

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched in 2013 and implemented the following year, marking 11 years since its inception. During this time, numerous research papers have been published that analyse the initiative’s objectives, targets and potential outcomes. This study aims to assess India’s resilience in joining the BRI by examining its net foreign direct investment (FDI) compared to a counterfactual scenario involving participation in the initiative.

Design/methodology/approach

The synthetic control method (SCM) will be used using a panel of 27 countries from 1990 to 2021.

Findings

The findings reveal that India’s FDI trajectory has decreased compared to …

The Effect Of Crime On Mental Health In South Africa, Magda Tsaneva, Lauren-Kate Laplante

Economics

This paper examines the impact of district-level crime rates in South Africa on individual depression symptoms. We use panel data from the National Income Dynamics Survey collected between 2008 and 2014 and estimate an individual fixed effects regression model, thus controlling for characteristics of the individual's environment that could affect crime and mental health. We find that an increase of one standard deviation in property (violent) crime is associated with a 7.2 (8.7) percentage point increase in the probability of depression symptoms. Analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that indirect exposure to crime likely affects mental health by increasing stress rather …

Estimating Round-Tripping Fdi From Firm-Level Data In China, Zeyi Qian, Junfu Zhang, Qiangyuan Chen

Economics

No abstract provided.

How Social Structure Shapes Female Competition Throughout Her Lifetime, Jeffrey Flory, Kenneth L. Leonard, Magda Tsaneva, Kathryn Vasilaky

Economics

Many studies find a consistent gender gap in competitiveness where men are more likely to compete than women given the same level of ability. Using data from experiments with women ages 12 through 90 in matrilocal and patrilocal communities in rural Malawi, we show that this gender gap does not exist uniformly for all women nor across their whole lifetime. We first replicate three main findings from the gender and competition literature: (i) women are less likely to compete on average; and the gender gap differs by (ii) culture and by (iii) age. In a new finding, we show that …

Environmental Regulation And Labor Demand: What Does The Evidence Tell Us?, Wayne B. Gray, Ron Shadbegian, Ann Wolverton

Economics

Understanding the potential effect of environmental regulation on employment is of broad interest to key stakeholders. Concerns encompass both short- and longer-term effects on workers within the regulated sector, affected communities that already suffer from a lack of employment opportunities, and net employment in the overall economy. We begin our review by presenting a neoclassical microeconomic framework demonstrating how environmental regulations might affect labor demand. We then summarize the main empirical findings from the literature, including sector-specific partial equilibrium estimates and general equilibrium approaches to identifying the employment impacts of regulations. We also briefly describe the literature on how environmental …

Hydro-Bio-Geo-Socio-Chemical Interactions And The Sustainability Of Residential Landscapes, Peter M. Groffman, Amanda K. Suchy, Dexter H. Locke, Robert J. Johnston, David A. Newburn, Arthur J. Gold, Lawrence E. Band, Jonathan Duncan, Morgan J. Grove, Jenny Kao-Kniffin, Hallee Meltzer, Tom Ndebele

Economics

Significance statement:
The paper presents major new insights into the multidisciplinary controls of nitrogen export (a widespread environmental concern) from residential landscapes. We conducted biogeochemical and social survey studies to identify locations (hotspots) or times (hot moments) with a disproportionate influence on this export. Results showed high variation in the vulnerability/sensitivity of individual parcels to cause environmental damage and in the knowledge and practices of individual managers. To the extent that hotspots are the result of management choices by homeowners, there are straightforward approaches to improve outcomes, e.g. fertilizer restrictions. If, however, hotspots arise from the configuration and inherent characteristics …

An Unobserved Components Model Of Total Factor Productivity And The Relative Price Of Investment, Joshua C.C. Chan, Edouard Wemy

Economics

This paper applies the common stochastic trends representation approach to the time series of total factor productivity (TFP) and the relative price of investment (RPI) to investigate the modeling of neutral technology (NT) and investment-specific technology (IST) and its econometric ramifications on the analysis of general equilibrium model. The permanent and transitory movements in both series are estimated efficiently via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods using band matrix algorithms. The results indicate that TFP and the RPI are, each, well represented by a differenced first-order autoregressive process. In addition, their time series share a common trend component that we interpret …

Spatial Dimensions Of Water Quality Value In New England River Networks, Robert J. Johnston, Klaus Moeltner, Seth Peery, Tom Ndebele, Zhenyu Yao, Stefano Crema, Wilfred M. Wollheim, Elena Besedin

Economics

Households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for water quality improvements—representing their economic value—depends on where improvements occur. Households often hold higher values for improvements close to their homes or iconic areas. Are there other areas where improvements might hold high value to individual households, do effects on WTP vary by type of improvement, and can these areas be identified even if they are not anticipated by researchers? To answer these questions, we integrated a water quality model and map-based, interactive choice experiment to estimate households’ WTP for water quality improvements throughout a river network covering six New England states. The choice …

Biophysical Measures To Support Analysis And Communication Of Existence Values, James Boyd, Robert Johnston, Paul Ringold

Economics

A recent focus of ecosystem services research has been on the definition of biophysical outcomes and measures most closely linked to social welfare. There is a particular need to identify biophysical outcomes corresponding to existence values. (Values associated with existence apart from any current or future use.) We review economic and ecological evidence to answer two key questions: First, what are ideal characteristics of linking indicators for existence values? Linking indicators should be: understandable, subject to direct sensory perception, represented at relevant temporal and spatial scales, comprehensive, and quantifiable in a repeatable manner. Second, what types of ecosystem outcomes are …

Gender Differences In Labor Market Outcomes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Cassidy Bowes

Economics

In the events of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Department of Homeland security released guidelines on who would be an essential worker and required to keep going to work for the benefit of society. Two of the industries deemed essential were healthcare and education, both of which are heavily concentrated by female workers. In this study, I use Current Population Survey data spanning November 2019 to December 2021 to test for gender differences in earnings among those working in the healthcare and education occupations during the pandemic. I estimate a regression model which includes controls for time trends and other factors, …

Sweating The Energy Bill: Extreme Weather, Poor Households, And The Energy Spending Gap, Jacqueline M. Doremus, Irene Jacqz, Sarah Johnston

Economics

We estimate the relationship between temperature and energy spending for both low and higher-income U.S. households. We find both groups respond similarly (in percentage terms) to moderate temperatures, but low-income households’ energy spending is half as responsive to extreme temperatures. Consistent with low-income households cutting back on necessities to afford their energy bills, we find similar disparities in the food spending response to extreme temperature. These results suggest adaptation to extreme weather, such as air conditioning use, is prohibitively costly for households experiencing poverty.

Size-Dependent Gender Gaps In Entrepreneurship: The Case Of Chile, David Cuberes, Marc Teig-Nier

Economics

This paper documents differences in firm size depending on whether their manager is a man or a woman and studies the aggregate implications of these gender gaps in Chile. We doc-ument that in 2007 less than a quarter of firms are managed by women and that this gap takes its largest value for managers with tertiary education or more. In terms of their number of workers, female-run firms are on average about three times smaller than those run by men. Moreover, the ratio of men to women managers is always above one, but it is much higher for large and …

Improving Targeting Of Farmers For Enrollment In Agri-Environmental Programs, Joshua M. Duke, Robert J. Johnston, Amy L. Shober, Zhongyuan Liu

Economics

Agricultural cost-share research and planning tend to focus on one program at a time, and hence overlook additional efficiencies that might be obtained by considering the possibility that enrollment decisions are related across different programs. Models of multiple-program participation decisions enable these relationships to be considered as part of conditional enrollment predictions, providing more complete and accurate understanding of enrollment behavior. Analysis of data from farmer surveys in Maryland and Ohio show complementary drivers across program participation. Results are consistent with economies of scale and/or scope among different agri-environmental programs. The data also show the gains in prediction accuracy when …

The Predictive Ability Of Stock Market Factors, Fatma Ahmed, Mohammed Elgammal Elgammal, David Gordon Mcmillan

Economics

Purpose – This paper aims to ask whether a range of stock market factors contain information that is useful to investors by generating a trading rule based on one-step-ahead forecasts from rolling and recursive regressions. Design/methodology/approach – Using USA data across 3,256 firms, the authors estimate stock returns on a range of factors using both fixed-effects panel and individual regressions. The authors use rolling and recursive approaches to generate time-varying coefficients. Subsequently, the authors generate one-step-ahead forecasts for expected returns, simulate a trading strategy and compare its performance with realised returns. Findings – Results from the panel and individual firm …

Birds Of A Feather Lockdown Together: Mutual Bird-Human Benefits During A Global Pandemic, Michael Brock, Jacqueline Doremus, Liqing Li

Economics

Feeding backyard wildlife has impure public good characteristics - it provides satisfaction to humans, both private and public, while also improving bird populations. We document a surge in human interest in connecting with wild birds during lockdowns in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Using an event-study design, we find large increases in bird engagement began soon after the start of the COVID-19 lockdowns in Spring 2020. Responses were stronger for areas with more bird species. Investments appear sustained, beginning first with bird feeders, then seed and finally baths. Beyond bird survival, bird feeding can potentially enhance humans' connection to nature …

The Effects Of Recreational Cannabis Access On Labor Markets: Evidence From Colorado, Avinandan Chakraborty, Jacqueline Doremus, Sarah Stith

Economics

Recreational cannabis markets possibly increase labor demand through investments in facilities for growing, processing, and retail sales of cannabis, as well as through other industries such as manufacturing, leisure, and hospitality. However, this increase in labor demand may vary substantially across counties within a state as most states with legal recreational canna-bis allow individual counties to ban commercial cannabis sales. Meanwhile, labor supply may change through positive and negative effects from cannabis use. Using county-level Colorado data from 2011 to 2018 and exploiting variation across counties in the existence and timing of the start of dispensary sales, we test for …

An Empirical Examination Of The Impact Of Economic Structural Change On Income Inequality: Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach, Maha Elhini, Rasha Hammam

Economics

This paper employs structural growth perspective to the analysis of income inequality in 43 countries over the period 2003-2017.The study utilizes two different panel estimation techniques. First, the panel least squares regression examines the relevance of Kuznets effect of the different economic sectors; agriculture, manufacturing and services on income inequality. Second, the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels gauges the long run impact of the change in sectoral value added as a proxy for structural change on inequality. PMG presents short run adjustments to be country-specific due to the widely different impacts of macroeconomic conditions and vulnerability …

Using Landscape Metrics To Characterize Towns Along An Urban-Rural Gradient, Abigail Kaminski, Dana Marie Bauer, Kathleen P. Bell, Cynthia S. Loftin, Erik J. Nelson

Economics

Context: Urban-rural gradients are useful tools when examining the influence of human disturbances on ecological, social and coupled systems, yet the most commonly used gradient definitions are based on single broad measures such as housing density or percent forest cover that fail to capture landscape patterns important for conservation. Objectives: We present an approach to defining urban–rural gradients that integrates multiple landscape pattern metrics related to ecosystem processes important for natural resources and wildlife sustainability. Methods: We develop a set of land cover composition and configuration metrics and then use them as inputs to a cluster analysis process that, in …