Economics Commons^™

Growth With Firm-To-Firm Trade, Samuel Kortum, Bernardo Ribeiro

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We explore how connections between buyers and suppliers of intermediate inputs evolve over time to promote firm growth. To formalize this process we develop a dynamic model of a granular endogenous production network, making stark assumptions that yield a tractable parsimonious framework. In the model, producers gradually build up a network of contacts by meeting other producers and source an intermediate input from their cheapest contact at any moment. They retain full recall, so can always switch to a producer contacted previously, even if they never bought from it before. Through this process the production network itself becomes an endogenous …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 9, Number 9, Thomas M. Fullerton, Steven L. Fullerton, Robert Sandoval

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Max-Share Misidentification, Liyu Dou, Paul Ho, Thomas Lubik

Research Collection School Of Economics

While max-share identiffcation has become increasingly popular in a wide range of applications, we show that its validity requires necessary and suffffcient conditions that are rarely satisffed in practice—the target variable’s response to the target shock must be (i) orthogonal to its responses to untargeted shocks and (ii) larger than combinations of those responses. Imposing additional restrictions on the target shock weakens but does not fully eliminate these conditions. We show that in practice, the weight max-share places on an identiffed untargeted shock can be obtained by projecting the response to that shock on the max-share response. We also theoretically …

Learning Camp, Language Of Instruction, And Education Outcomes: Evidence From A Field Experiment In Malawi, Hyuncheol Bryant. Kim, Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

We conducted a randomized experiment to study the impacts of a summer learning camp and the language of instruction on education outcomes. The program, covering social studies and mathematics, provided additional high-quality learning time for 4th and 5th graders in Malawi. The program significantly increased test scores in social studies and mathematics (0.24–0.36 standard deviations). We find suggestive evidence that the impact on test scores in social studies was greater for students instructed in Chichewa, the local language, than for those instructed in English. However, we find no such evidence of differential impacts on test scores in mathematics by the …

Policy Evaluation With Nonlinear Trended Outcomes: Covid-19 Vaccination Rates In The United States, Lynn Bergeland Morgan, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper discusses pitfalls in two way fixed effects (TWFE) regressions when the outcome variables contain nonlinear and possibly stochastic trend components. If a policy change shifts trend paths of outcome variables, TWFE estimation can distort results and invalidate inference, especially in a context of evolving policy decisions. A robust solution is proposed by allowing for dynamic club membership empirically using a relative convergence test procedure. The determinants of respective club memberships are assessed by panel ordered logit regressions. The approach allows for policy evolution and shifts in outcomes according to a convergence cluster framework with transitions over time and …

(Wp 2025-05) Expanding Black Reparations With Human And Social Capital Investments, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

Disadvantaged social groups in the US suffered disproportionately in the covid pandemic and Great Recession, worsening high levels of inequality associated with their post-1980 declining intergenerational income mobility. For black Americans this reflects the long history of racial discrimination beginning with slavery. Reparations paid to descendants of enslaved individuals to eliminate the black-white wealth gap is a step toward addressing this history. A further needed step is to build predominantly black communities human and social capital through public investments in community health care centers (CHCs) and historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs). There is considerable evidence that investments in early …

Clark Fork River Pedal & Farm Tour 2025, Trout Creek, Montana, Ava Worbets, Kika Bradford, Megan Schultz

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This study was conducted for Kaniksu Land Trust to provide insight into the characteristics of attendees of the 2025 Clark Fork River Pedal & Farm Tour hosted in Trout Creek, Montana. Forty-two attendees of the event completed the survey. Results show that the majority of respondents resided outside of Sanders County, with 71% from Montana (but only 7% from Sanders County itself) and 29% visiting from other US states, primarily Idaho. Out-of-county respondents spent an average of 2.3 nights in Sanders County, reporting a total spending of $8,732.00, mostly in hotel/motel/bed and breakfasts and restaurants/bars. Results provide event organizers with …

2025 Montana Tourism Outlook: Balancing Innovation And Tradition - Montana Economic Seminar Presentation, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

No abstract provided.

Montana International Choral Festival 2025, Missoula County, Montana, Matthew Matz, Ava Worbets, Kika Bradford, Megan Schultz

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This study was conducted for the Montana International Choral Festival to provide insight into the characteristics of attendees of the 2025 Montana International Choral Festival hosted in Missoula, Montana. Three hundred ninety-four attendees of the event completed the survey. Results show that the majority of respondents were relatively local, with 79% of respondents being residents of Montana and 83% of Montana respondents residing in Missoula County. Out-of-county respondents spent an average of 4.1 nights in Missoula, reporting a total spending of $100,274.00, mostly in rental home/cabin/condo, hotel/motel/bed and breakfasts, and restaurants/bars. Results provide event organizers with useful data for future …

Forgoing Nuclear: Nuclear Power Plant Closures And Carbon Emissions In The United States, Luke Petach

Faculty Scholarship

This paper examines the effect of nuclear power plant decommissioning on electricity generation and carbon emissions in the United States. Using data on nuclear reactor closures in the United States between 1993 and 2022 and data on state-level carbon emissions and electricity generation from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), this paper adopts a difference-in- differences (DiD) approach to estimate the effect of nuclear decommissioning. Two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) DiD estimates suggest a nuclear plant closure increases annual state-level per capita carbon emissions between 6% and 8%. The increase in state-level carbon emissions is driven by a substitution toward fossil fuel electricity—particularly …

Horses And The Transition From Feudalism To Capitalism., Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Many scholarly articles and books have been written about the transition from feudalism to capitalism over the decades. The various points of views on what is the “main driver” or “prime mover” of the transition have been debated in various forums by historians and economic historians with a different major factor being advocated by different proponents or schools of thought. This paper tries to offer another analysis of how the horse could have been an important “means to an end” in the development of capitalism, and this analysis possibly can lead to support for more than one view of what …

(When) Can Trade Wars Be Good?, Henry S. Gao, Weihuan Zhou

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

‘Trade wars are good, and easy to win,’ tweeted Donald Trump in 2018. The US–China trade war that followed proved otherwise – especially when confronting a major economic power. Yet, can trade wars ever be good? While the academic consensus holds they harm all participants, we argue that under certain circumstances they can produce positive outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the Liberation Day tariffs announced on April 2, 2025, this paper examines the limits of the Ricardian free trade model underpinning the current multilateral trading system, identifies when trade wars may serve strategic goals, and explores alternative rules to …

Speculative Bubbles In The Recent Ai Boom: Nasdaq And The Magnificent Seven, Rerotlhe B. Basele, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

The recent artificial intelligence (AI) boom covers a period of rapid innovation and wide adoption of AI intelligence technologies across diverse industries. These developments have fueled an unprecedented frenzy in the Nasdaq, with AI-focused companies experiencing soaring stock prices that raise concerns about speculative bubbles and real-economy consequences. Against this background, this study investigates the formation of speculative bubbles in the Nasdaq stock market with a specific focus on the so-called Magnificent Seven (Mag-7) individual stocks during the AI boom, spanning the period from January 2017 to January 2025. We apply the real-time PSY bubble detection methodology of Phillips et …

A General Test For Functional Inequalities, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a nonparametric test for general functional inequalities that include conditional moment inequalities as a special case. It is shown that the test controls size uniformly over a large class of distributions for observed data, importantly allowing for general forms of time series dependence. New results on uniform growing dimensional Gaussian coupling for general mixingale processes are developed for this purpose, which readily accommodate most applications in economics and finance. The proposed method is applied in a portfolio evaluation context to test for “all-weather” portfolios with uniformly superior conditional Sharpe ratio functions.

Risk, Uncertainty, World Business Cycles, And The U.S. Stock-Oil Relationship, André Varella Mollick

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine in this paper the transmission of geopolitical risks (GPR), VIX, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and “macro uncertainty” shocks to real WTI oil and U.S. stock returns (S&P 500). Structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) are applied to monthly data from 1990:1 to 2023:6 with identification based on long-run restrictions of impulse responses from risk/uncertainty measures to world industrial production. The main results are: First, oil prices respond positively to shocks in GPR and macro uncertainty in the short-run, but not to shocks in VIX and EPU. Second, stock returns respond negatively and for longer to both GPR and VIX shocks. …

Robust Ai Solutions For Financial Markets Through Generative Modeling, Dynamic Graph Learning, And Reinforcement-Based Portfolio Optimization, Jingyi Gu

Dissertations

Financial markets are inherently uncertain and dynamic, driven by complex factors such as macroeconomic signals, investor sentiment, and evolving inter-asset relationships. While machine learning has advanced financial modeling, existing approaches often fall short in addressing the real-world intricacies of finance. This dissertation confronts two critical challenges, human-driven stochasticity and risk-intensive decision-making under real-world trading constraints, while seizing a pivotal opportunity, the structural dynamics of evolving financial systems. These elements are foundational to advancing robust and practical financial intelligence.

To this end, this dissertation develops a unified framework for robust financial modeling and decision-making. The framework is architected as a progressive, …

The Concept Of Maqāṣid Al-Sharī‘Ah And Maṣlaḥah In The Classical And Contemporary Tafsîr, Yusuf Wibisono, Femmy Roeslan

International Journal of Islamic Economics and Business Sustainability

A contemporary mufassir (Qur’anic exegete) employs the principle of al-‘ibrah bi maqāṣid al-sharī‘ah—that interpretation must refer to the objectives of Islamic law—in an effort to uncover the true meaning of the Qur’anic text. A purely literal reading of the Qur’an, without an understanding of its maqāṣid (objectives), faces many limitations. The maqāṣid approach emphasizes not only the wording of the text but also its underlying purposes and goals. The greatest strength of maqāṣid-based tafsīr (interpretation) lies in its ability to render the Qur’an always relevant, adaptable, and universally applicable. As an interpretive approach not strictly tied to …

Pipeline Vs. Choice: The Global Gender Gap In Stem Applications, Isaac Ahimbisibwe, Adam Altjmed, Georgy Artemov, Andres Barrios-Fernandez, Aspasia Bizopoulou, Martti Kaila, Jin-Tan Liu, Rigissa Megalokonomou, José Montalban, Christopher Neilson, Jintao Sun, Sebastian Otero, Xiaoyang Ye

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Women account for only 35% of global STEM graduates, a share unchanged for a decade. We use administrative microdata from centralized university admissions in ten systems to deliver the first crossnational decomposition of the STEM gender gap into a pipeline gap (academic preparedness) and a choice gap (first-choice field conditional on eligibility). In deferred-acceptance platforms where eligibility is score-based, we isolate preferences from access. The pipeline gap varies widely, from -19 to +31 percentage points across education systems. By contrast, the choice gap is remarkably stable: high-scoring women are 25 percentage points less likely than men to rank STEM first.

Cooling Protocols Impact On Nickel-Titanium Rotary Instruments Cyclic Fatigue Resistance Under Extreme Curvatures And Sodium Hypochlorite, Palak Ravjibhai Ranparia, Chintan Joshi, Mona Somani, Aashray Patel, Urooj Desai, Janki Prajapati

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

Objective: In this work, Hyflex CM, TruNatomy, and Plex V heat-treated nickel titanium rotary instruments were evaluated at body temperature (36 °C ± 1 °C) with and without a cooling protocol to assess the cyclic fatigue resistance. Methods: A 90° curved stainless-steel block was used for cyclic fatigue tests on 60 randomly selected rotary instruments, divided into two groups of 30: body temperature (n = 10) and body temperature with cooling (n = 10). Instruments were further subdivided into 6 groups of 3 different instruments. Cooling protocol group instruments received 5-second spray cooling every 30 seconds, along with continuous 5% …

Neutral Zone Vs. Conventional Denture Fabrication: A Randomized Crossover Study On Denture Performance, Karthik Kannaiyan, Arunima Chauhan, Vijayendranath Nayak, Riyshmaa Devendaran, Dashmita Peterson, Pavittra Kanesan, Vityaa Lakshmi

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

Objectives: It is challenging to achieve satisfactory outcomes in a complete denture for patients with resorbed residual ridges. Utilization of neutral zone techniques to guide posterior denture tooth arrangement and denture base contouring has been considered for many decades. However, the evidence is still not enough to revise protocols. This study aimed to compare patient satisfaction and stability of neutral zone denture with conventional denture. Methods: A crossover clinical trial was conducted among patients with resorbed mandibular ridges. Each participant received two sets of dentures: one fabricated using the neutral zone technique and one using the conventional method, in a …

Revisiting Kin And Ethnic Favoritism In The Bribery Experiment, Mahsa Akbari, Duman Bahrami-Rad, Erik O. Kimbrough

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We report a conceptual replication of Akbari et al. (2020), who study the impact of co-ethnicity and kinship on behavior in an experimental “bribery game”. In the game, player A can offer a bribe to B, who can help A by inefficiently transferring resources from passive third-party C. We replicate the finding that by varying the relatedness of A, B and C, we can substantially modulate the willingness of A to offer the bribe and the willingness of B to reciprocate the bribe by harming C. The findings are consistent with theories of kin altruism and ethnic favoritism.

The Cost Of Capital Calculation In The Project Finance Settings, Paweł Mielcarz, Dmytro Osiichuk, Adrian Struciński

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

The paper aims at elucidating and solving the methodological problems around the estimation of the cost of capital in the project finance settings. By convention, capital budgeting analysts evaluate project finance ventures using the free cash flow for equity (FCFE) method, whereby cash flows, including cash, whose distribution is limited by debt covenants, are discounted with the project’s cost of equity. We argue that this approach is erroneous. From the standpoint of the sponsor company, only distributable cash flows should be taken into consideration when evaluating project finance ventures. In turn, the discount rate should be equal to the weighted …

The Discouraging Effect Of Overconfidence, Cary Deck, Klajdi Bregu

ESI Publications

Overconfidence is often viewed as encouraging entrepreneurs and CEOs to follow risky strategies such as entering new markets, engaging in innovation, or pursuing mergers and acquisitions. While such undertakings can generate excess returns and profits, overconfidence is frequently offered as an explanation for why so many business ventures fail. However, we show that in a setting where the decision maker does not know whether success is possible, theoretically, overconfidence can also have a discouraging effect, causing one to give up too soon. This counterintuitive result is driven by effectively misattributing one's own failure to an elevated assessment of the chance …

Sociohydrodynamics: Data-Driven Modeling Of Social Behavior, Daniel S. Seara, Jonathan Colen, Michel Fruchart, Yael Avni, David G. Martin, Vincenzo Vitelli

Data Science Faculty Publications

Living systems display complex behaviors driven by physical forces as well as decision-making. Hydrodynamic theories hold promise for simplified universal descriptions of socially generated collective behaviors. However, the construction of such theories is often divorced from the data they should describe. Here, we develop and apply a data-driven pipeline that links micromotives to macrobehavior by augmenting hydrodynamics with individual preferences that guide motion. We illustrate this pipeline on a case study of residential dynamics in the United States, for which census and sociological data are available. Guided by Census data, sociological surveys, and neural network analysis, we systematically assess standard …

Volatility Of The Usd/Chf Exchange Rate At The Beginning Of The Covid-19 Pandemic, Anna Gaweł, Janusz Kudła

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

Purpose

We address the problem of forecasting USD/CHF volatility at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. We chose popular currencies (Swiss franc and American dollar) in the period 1.07.2020 to 31.12.2020.

Design/methodology/approach

We employed several volatility models, including APARCH, EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, TGARCH, and GARCH-MIDAS, on high-frequency USD/CHF data. Particular emphasis was placed on asymmetric models to capture volatility asymmetry.

Findings

The highest volatility occurred during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Volatility forecasts are most accurate with EGARCH and GARCH-MIDAS models that incorporate long-term asymmetry, particularly when predicting volatility over a longer planning horizon. GARCH-MIDAS models with short-term asymmetry …

Multidimensional Monotonicity And Economic Applications, Frank Yang, Kai Hao Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We characterize the extreme points of multidimensional monotone functions from [0,1]ⁿ to [0,1], as well as the extreme points of the set of one-dimensional marginals of these functions. These characterizations lead to new results in various mechanism design and information design problems, including public good provision with interdependent values; interim efficient bilateral trade mechanisms; asymmetric reduced form auctions; and optimal private private information structure. As another application, we also present a mechanism anti-equivalence theorem for two-agent, two-alternative social choice problems: A mechanism is payoff-equivalent to a deterministic DIC mechanism if and only if they are ex-post equivalent.

How Air Travel Became Safer Through Cashless Service, Alan Saquella

Publications

In an age where convenience, efficiency, and security reign supreme, air travel has adapted accordingly. One notable change: the elimination of cash payments on board for food, drinks, and other purchases. This shift away from bills and coins did not happen by accident, it reflected a deliberate focus on safety, security, and smoother operations.

Employment Status And Evaluation Of Government Performance In Covid-19 Containment : Evidence From China, Jinye Chen

Lingnan Theses (MPhil & PhD)

Evaluation of government performance of citizens is crucial for regime stability as it could help authoritarian regimes to identify and address brewing problems before they fuel public discontent. It can also act as a potential mechanism for improving government performance and public services and establishing a good image of government. Following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, Chinese government has adopted the zero-COVID policy to keep cases as close to zero as possible until December 2022. China’s job market also faced big pressure from the economic downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The pandemic is a shock that impact the …

Nba Player Types And Salaries: Assessing The Disparities In Pay, Nick Riccardi, Rodney J. Paul

Sport Management - All Scholarship

The purpose of this study was to identify player types that exist in the modern National Basketball Association (NBA), test whether player types are paid differently controlling for performance and other factors and construct successful rosters with cheaper payrolls.
We collected performance statistics and salary data for players and teams across five seasons (2018-19 to 2022-23). Cluster analysis is leveraged to group together player-seasons to identify the player types that exist in the NBA. Linear regression models are run to test for differences in pay by cluster membership while controlling for performance, age, and contractual details. Linear programming simulation models …

Impact Of Accounting Information Systems And Islamic Organizational Culture On Information Quality, Oelma Arfannur Azizi, Busra Busra, Marjulin Marjulin

Arab Economic and Business Journal

Amid growing demands for transparency and accuracy in financial management, an effective Accounting Information System plays a crucial role in ensuring that financial data is accurately. However, the implementation of such technology must be supported by a strong organizational culture,. The method employed in this research is a quantitative approach, utilizing inferential statistics to explain the impact of various research variables. The statistical tool used is Structural Equation Modeling -. The results of this study indicate that both the Accounting Information System and Islamic Organizational Culture have a positive and significant impact on the quality of accounting information