Economics Commons^™

Multidimensional Arbitration, Cary Deck, Paul Pecorino, Brian R. Powers

ESI Working Papers

Most analyses of arbitration consider disputes over a single dimensional issue; however, in many situations more than one issue can be in dispute. In a labor context, the parties may disagree on the hourly wage, number of paid holidays, and fringe benefits as well as other conditions of employment. In addition to conventional arbitration (CA), two variants of multidimensional final-offer arbitration (FOA) are employed in practice. Under one version of FOA, the arbitrator must pick the entire package submitted by one of the disputants. Under the other version of FOA, the arbitrator can select elements from each disputant’s final offer …

Exploring The Landscape Of Teacher Applications, Dan Goldhaber, Cyrus Grout, Constance A. Lindsay, Elton Mykerezi, Aaron Sojourner, Lauren Dachille

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Despite widespread concern about teacher shortages, there is little evidence on when teaching positions are posted and how many people apply for them. Using detailed job-posting and application data on nearly 57,000 applicants from 19 traditional school districts and 24 charter organizations, we provide descriptive evidence on the timing of job postings, the supply of applicants, and the characteristics of applicants, emphasizing how each varies across organizations and between the district and charter sectors. We find that late hiring is less prevalent than prior single-district studies suggest—about 11% of openings are posted late—but varies widely across organizations. Applicant supply differs …

Dampak Program Kota Tanpa Kumuh Terhadap Perkembangan Industri Kecil Mikro, Koperasi, Dan Hotel Di Lokasi Kumuh, Muhammad Khoirur Rijal

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract

The development of a region is frequently followed by the emergence of slum settlements which further obstruct the growth of productive activities. This study evaluates the effects of Slum Upgrading Program in Indonesia to the growth of small-micro industries, cooperatives, and hotels in slum area. By using difference in difference (DID) method, this study analysed 3427 villages in 33 provinces during 2016-2018. It was found that program increased the number of micro and small industries and hotels, and reduced the number of cooperatives. This finding indicated that mitigate slums effectively have an impact on the development of small industries …

Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Insentif Fiskal Terhadap Tingkat Komponen Dalam Negeri (Tkdn) Industri Manufaktur Di Indonesia, Muhammad Muhammad, Riyanto Riyanto

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Over the last decade, the manufacturing sector's contribution to Indonesia's economy has declined. In 2010, it was 29.10% of GDP, but by 2022, it had dropped to 19.14%. Employment in the sector also fell, from 14.91% of the workforce in 2010 to 13.80% in 2022. To reverse this trend, the government introduced a policy to boost the Domestic Component Level (DCL) in manufacturing. By offering fiscal incentives to industries meeting certain DCL targets, the government aims to drive economic growth and job creation. A study using BPS data from 2008-2019 shows that this policy raised DCL by 23.5%.

The Jokowi Effect On The Victory Of Prabowo: Do People Vote For Continuity?, Cakra Yudi Putra, Dyah Ayu Febriani, Andri Tantyo Cahyo Nugroho, Teguh Dartanto

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The 2024 Indonesian presidential election marked a striking realignment as Prabowo Subianto—a former opposition leader—secured victory with the tacit endorsement of outgoing President Joko Widodo (Jokowi). This study investigates how the enduring popularity and policy achievements of Jokowi shaped voter preferences in favor of Prabowo, effectively positioning the election as a referendum on political continuity. Building on theories of economic voting and retrospective performance evaluation, the analysis explores the impact of district-level economic indicators, social media penetration, ideological orientation, social assistance distribution, and sociocultural characteristics on electoral outcomes. Employing Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression on data from 481 administrative regions, …

The Basics Of The Mundlak And Chamberlain Projections, Badi H. Baltagi, Tom Wansbeek

Center for Policy Research

One of the best-known results in panel data econometrics, due to Mundlak (1978), is the equality of the random-effects and fixed-effects estimators when the individual effects are correlated with the means over time of the regressors. Chamberlain (1980) showed that the same result holds when the individual effects are correlated with the regressors for all moments in time separately. In this chapter, we review basic elements of the Mundlak and Chamberlain projections. We emphasize the simplicity that is often obtained when the model is transformed into the within and between-model, following Arellano (1993). Topics that we discuss include the augmented …

Spatial Stochastic Frontier Model With Stochastic Weighting Matrix, Ming-Yu Deng, Levent Kutlu

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper develops a spatial autoregressive stochastic frontier model that allows the spatial weighting matrix to be stochastic. This approach captures spatial heterogeneity in the interactions among production units and quantifies random spatial dependencies arising from this variability. The model parameters are estimated using a simulated maximum likelihood approach. We propose a method to simulate spillover-corrected direct, indirect, and total efficiency estimates. Additionally, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed model. Finally, an empirical application to the efficiency of Spanish dairy farms is presented to demonstrate the practical implementation of our methodology.

Dampak Jumlah Kredit Yang Dimiliki Rumah Tangga Terhadap Kekerasan Dalam Rumah Tangga (Kdrt) Pada Anak Di Indonesia, Anjar Maulitfiani, Dwini Handayani

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

This study examines the impact of intensity of household debt on domestic violence (DV) towards children in Indonesia. There is a positive relationship between the amount of household debt and the likelihood of domestic violence towards children based on literature review. This research uses a quantitative method with multinomial logistic regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that households with more than one household debt are correlated with an increased likelihood of both psychological and physical domestic violence towards children compared to the likelihood of no domestic violence, both before and after controlling variables added.

Exploring Successful Financing Strategies For Developing Real Estate In Cameroon, Esoh Etebe Elah

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Financing constraints have become a significant problem for leaders of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) developing real estate in Cameroon. Cameroon SME real estate development leaders often lack knowledge of financing strategies to mitigate financial barriers and improve business sustainability. Grounded in the financing constraint theory, this qualitative pragmatic inquiry project was to explore the successful financing strategies Cameroon SME real estate development leaders used. Seven leaders of Cameroon real estate development SMEs were interviewed, and public documents were reviewed. The semistructured interview and document data were analyzed using thematic analysis, resulting in five themes: (a) financing strategies, (b) funding …

Estimation Of Serially Correlated Error Components Models Using Whittle’S Approximate Maximum Likelihood Method, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Jean-Michel Etienne

Center for Policy Research

This chapter studies the estimation of error components models with serial correlation of the 𝐴𝑅𝑀𝐴(𝑝, 𝑞) type using Whittle’s (Whittle, 1953) approximate maximum likelihood method. This is done for the one-way and two-way error components panel data model. Monte Carlo simulations are performed that investigate the small sample performance of this method.

Essays On Operational Issues Of Online Medical Consultation Platforms, Jinxin Zhang

Lingnan Theses (MPhil & PhD)

The increased demand for Online Medical Consultation (OMC) services has accelerated the development of Online Medical Consultation Platforms (OMCPs). OMCPs are third-party digital platforms on which patients can access medical consultation services with comparatively less effort and lower cost, while physicians can expand their service coverage and benefit financially from the provision of paid OMC services in their spare time. Although OMCPs have attracted a growing interest in academia, the role of various decision-making behaviors of physicians on these platforms on their patients and themselves remains unclear. To fill this research gap, we conduct two empirical studies based on proprietary …

Abundance Strategies Should Promote Abundant Jobs In Distressed Places, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

A prominent recent policy debate is about “abundance policies”: policies to make it easier to build housing or infrastructure, deliver government services more quickly and more efficiently, and expedite the public funding of the most innovative and socially impactful research. In this essay, I argue that abundance advocates often mistakenly ignore or have a negative attitude toward “place-based policies.” These place-based policies would seek to increase employment rates, particularly in good jobs, in two types of distressed places that lack abundant job opportunities: distressed local labor markets and distressed neighborhoods. Both the goals and means of place-based policies fit into …

Impacts Of U.S. Environmental Regulations On Industry, Xiao Ji, Mengyu Wang, Tianyi Zhang

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This paper analyzes the impacts of U.S. environmental regulations on industry, focusing on command-and-control environmental regulations (CCER) and market-based environmental regulations (MBER). Drawing on empirical data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) spanning over four decades, we examine key legislation such as the Clean Water Act (CWA), Clean Air Act (CAA), and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), while also discussing more recent frameworks like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Our findings suggest that although penalties under CCER contribute to immediate compliance, they often fail to elicit long-term changes in corporate behavior. In contrast, MBER, exemplified by the IRA, …

Nowcasting Disruptions To Human Capital Formation: Evidence From High-Frequency Household And Geospatial Data In Rural Malawi, E. J. Tennant, Aleksandr Michuda, J. B. Upton, A. Chamorro, R. Engstrom, M. L. Mann, D. Newhouse, M. Weber, C. B. Barrett

Economics Faculty Works

Exposure to extreme weather events and other adverse shocks has led to an increasing number of humanitarian crises in developing countries in recent years. These events cause acute suffering and compromise future welfare by adversely impacting human capital formation among vulnerable populations. Early and accurate detection of adverse shocks to food security, health, and schooling is critical to facilitating timely and well-targeted humanitarian interventions to minimize these detrimental effects. Yet monitoring data are rarely available with the frequency and spatial granularity needed. This paper uses high-frequency household survey data from the Rapid Feedback Monitoring System, collected in 2020–23 in southern …

Regulatory Impacts On Us Hazardous Waste Exports, Xiaofan Ji, Mengyu Wang, Tianyi Zhang

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This paper examines the impact of key domestic and international regulations on US hazardous waste exports, focusing on shifts in export destinations and waste types from 2002 to 2023. Since 2005, OECD countries and US Trade Agreement Partners have become primary destinations for US hazardous waste, with significant surges after 2018 and a notable decline in 2022. An analysis of the regulatory landscape reveals that, while international frameworks such as the Basel Convention of 2021 have had a relatively limited impact on reducing US hazardous waste exports, domestic policies—particularly those in California—have more directly influenced export behaviors. Additionally, the US …

Risk, Uncertainty, World Business Cycles, And The U.S. Stock-Oil Relationship, André Varella Mollick

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine in this paper the transmission of geopolitical risks (GPR), VIX, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and “macro uncertainty” shocks to real WTI oil and U.S. stock returns (S&P 500). Structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) are applied to monthly data from 1990:1 to 2023:6 with identification based on long-run restrictions of impulse responses from risk/uncertainty measures to world industrial production. The main results are: First, oil prices respond positively to shocks in GPR and macro uncertainty in the short-run, but not to shocks in VIX and EPU. Second, stock returns respond negatively and for longer to both GPR and VIX shocks. …

Growth With Firm-To-Firm Trade, Samuel Kortum, Bernardo Ribeiro

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We explore how connections between buyers and suppliers of intermediate inputs evolve over time to promote firm growth. To formalize this process we develop a dynamic model of a granular endogenous production network, making stark assumptions that yield a tractable parsimonious framework. In the model, producers gradually build up a network of contacts by meeting other producers and source an intermediate input from their cheapest contact at any moment. They retain full recall, so can always switch to a producer contacted previously, even if they never bought from it before. Through this process the production network itself becomes an endogenous …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 9, Number 9, Thomas M. Fullerton, Steven L. Fullerton, Robert Sandoval

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

(Wp 2025-05) Expanding Black Reparations With Human And Social Capital Investments, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

Disadvantaged social groups in the US suffered disproportionately in the covid pandemic and Great Recession, worsening high levels of inequality associated with their post-1980 declining intergenerational income mobility. For black Americans this reflects the long history of racial discrimination beginning with slavery. Reparations paid to descendants of enslaved individuals to eliminate the black-white wealth gap is a step toward addressing this history. A further needed step is to build predominantly black communities human and social capital through public investments in community health care centers (CHCs) and historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs). There is considerable evidence that investments in early …

Clark Fork River Pedal & Farm Tour 2025, Trout Creek, Montana, Ava Worbets, Kika Bradford, Megan Schultz

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This study was conducted for Kaniksu Land Trust to provide insight into the characteristics of attendees of the 2025 Clark Fork River Pedal & Farm Tour hosted in Trout Creek, Montana. Forty-two attendees of the event completed the survey. Results show that the majority of respondents resided outside of Sanders County, with 71% from Montana (but only 7% from Sanders County itself) and 29% visiting from other US states, primarily Idaho. Out-of-county respondents spent an average of 2.3 nights in Sanders County, reporting a total spending of $8,732.00, mostly in hotel/motel/bed and breakfasts and restaurants/bars. Results provide event organizers with …

2025 Montana Tourism Outlook: Balancing Innovation And Tradition - Montana Economic Seminar Presentation, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

No abstract provided.

Montana International Choral Festival 2025, Missoula County, Montana, Matthew Matz, Ava Worbets, Kika Bradford, Megan Schultz

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This study was conducted for the Montana International Choral Festival to provide insight into the characteristics of attendees of the 2025 Montana International Choral Festival hosted in Missoula, Montana. Three hundred ninety-four attendees of the event completed the survey. Results show that the majority of respondents were relatively local, with 79% of respondents being residents of Montana and 83% of Montana respondents residing in Missoula County. Out-of-county respondents spent an average of 4.1 nights in Missoula, reporting a total spending of $100,274.00, mostly in rental home/cabin/condo, hotel/motel/bed and breakfasts, and restaurants/bars. Results provide event organizers with useful data for future …

Forgoing Nuclear: Nuclear Power Plant Closures And Carbon Emissions In The United States, Luke Petach

Faculty Scholarship

This paper examines the effect of nuclear power plant decommissioning on electricity generation and carbon emissions in the United States. Using data on nuclear reactor closures in the United States between 1993 and 2022 and data on state-level carbon emissions and electricity generation from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), this paper adopts a difference-in- differences (DiD) approach to estimate the effect of nuclear decommissioning. Two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) DiD estimates suggest a nuclear plant closure increases annual state-level per capita carbon emissions between 6% and 8%. The increase in state-level carbon emissions is driven by a substitution toward fossil fuel electricity—particularly …

Horses And The Transition From Feudalism To Capitalism., Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Many scholarly articles and books have been written about the transition from feudalism to capitalism over the decades. The various points of views on what is the “main driver” or “prime mover” of the transition have been debated in various forums by historians and economic historians with a different major factor being advocated by different proponents or schools of thought. This paper tries to offer another analysis of how the horse could have been an important “means to an end” in the development of capitalism, and this analysis possibly can lead to support for more than one view of what …

(When) Can Trade Wars Be Good?, Henry S. Gao, Weihuan Zhou

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

‘Trade wars are good, and easy to win,’ tweeted Donald Trump in 2018. The US–China trade war that followed proved otherwise – especially when confronting a major economic power. Yet, can trade wars ever be good? While the academic consensus holds they harm all participants, we argue that under certain circumstances they can produce positive outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the Liberation Day tariffs announced on April 2, 2025, this paper examines the limits of the Ricardian free trade model underpinning the current multilateral trading system, identifies when trade wars may serve strategic goals, and explores alternative rules to …

Speculative Bubbles In The Recent Ai Boom: Nasdaq And The Magnificent Seven, Rerotlhe B. Basele, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

The recent artificial intelligence (AI) boom covers a period of rapid innovation and wide adoption of AI intelligence technologies across diverse industries. These developments have fueled an unprecedented frenzy in the Nasdaq, with AI-focused companies experiencing soaring stock prices that raise concerns about speculative bubbles and real-economy consequences. Against this background, this study investigates the formation of speculative bubbles in the Nasdaq stock market with a specific focus on the so-called Magnificent Seven (Mag-7) individual stocks during the AI boom, spanning the period from January 2017 to January 2025. We apply the real-time PSY bubble detection methodology of Phillips et …

A General Test For Functional Inequalities, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Wenyu Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a nonparametric test for general functional inequalities that include conditional moment inequalities as a special case. It is shown that the test controls size uniformly over a large class of distributions for observed data, importantly allowing for general forms of time series dependence. New results on uniform growing dimensional Gaussian coupling for general mixingale processes are developed for this purpose, which readily accommodate most applications in economics and finance. The proposed method is applied in a portfolio evaluation context to test for “all-weather” portfolios with uniformly superior conditional Sharpe ratio functions.

Max-Share Misidentification, Liyu Dou, Paul Ho, Thomas Lubik

Research Collection School Of Economics

While max-share identiffcation has become increasingly popular in a wide range of applications, we show that its validity requires necessary and suffffcient conditions that are rarely satisffed in practice—the target variable’s response to the target shock must be (i) orthogonal to its responses to untargeted shocks and (ii) larger than combinations of those responses. Imposing additional restrictions on the target shock weakens but does not fully eliminate these conditions. We show that in practice, the weight max-share places on an identiffed untargeted shock can be obtained by projecting the response to that shock on the max-share response. We also theoretically …

Learning Camp, Language Of Instruction, And Education Outcomes: Evidence From A Field Experiment In Malawi, Hyuncheol Bryant. Kim, Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

We conducted a randomized experiment to study the impacts of a summer learning camp and the language of instruction on education outcomes. The program, covering social studies and mathematics, provided additional high-quality learning time for 4th and 5th graders in Malawi. The program significantly increased test scores in social studies and mathematics (0.24–0.36 standard deviations). We find suggestive evidence that the impact on test scores in social studies was greater for students instructed in Chichewa, the local language, than for those instructed in English. However, we find no such evidence of differential impacts on test scores in mathematics by the …

Policy Evaluation With Nonlinear Trended Outcomes: Covid-19 Vaccination Rates In The United States, Lynn Bergeland Morgan, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper discusses pitfalls in two way fixed effects (TWFE) regressions when the outcome variables contain nonlinear and possibly stochastic trend components. If a policy change shifts trend paths of outcome variables, TWFE estimation can distort results and invalidate inference, especially in a context of evolving policy decisions. A robust solution is proposed by allowing for dynamic club membership empirically using a relative convergence test procedure. The determinants of respective club memberships are assessed by panel ordered logit regressions. The approach allows for policy evolution and shifts in outcomes according to a convergence cluster framework with transitions over time and …