Economics Commons^™

Forecasting Economic Activity Using The Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications For New Zealand, Australia And The Us, Todd Henry, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Inversion of the yield curve has come to be viewed as a leading recession indicator. Unsurprisingly, some recent instances of inversion have attracted attention from economic commentators and policymakers about possible impending recessions. Using a variety of time series models and recent innovations in econometric method, this paper conducts quasi-real-time forecasting exercises to investigate whether the predictive capability of the yield curve extends to forecasting economic activity in general and whether removing the term premium component from yields affects forecast accuracy. The empirical findings for the US, Australia, and New Zealand show that forecast performance is not improved either by …

Corruption And Cooperative Organizations, Konstantinos Giannakas, Murray E. Fulton

Cornhusker Economics

Although the literature is limited, there is evi-dence that corruption in cooperatives and inves-tor-owned firms (IOF) is widespread in develop-ing and transition economies where corruption generally is common. Cooperative corruption is also found closer to home. Two recent examples from the United States include the Ashby Farm-ers’ Cooperative Elevator in Minnesota where the general manager stole from the cooperative and the Tri-County Electric Cooperative in South Carolina where board members enriched them-selves with perks and benefits. In Canada, the PACE Credit Union was placed under the regula-tor’s control in 2018 after two senior executives were discovered to have received secret …

Seasonality In Fed Cattle Transactions And The Role Of Negotiated Cash, Elliott James Dennis

Extension Farm and Ranch Management News

First paragraph:

Alternative Marketing Arrangements (AMA) have once again taken center stage in the cattle market over the last several weeks. It is common knowledge that the use of AMAs varies by geographical region with Southern Plains feedlots using a larger share relative to Northern Plains feedlots. A long-standing issue is whether each geographical region is contributing a perceived appropriate amount of negotiated cash trade to aid in price discovery. This issue has intensified as the national level of negotiated cattle continues to decline. Lower cash prices and increased volatility due to COVID-19 government quarantine measures and the Holcomb Fire …

Commodities Are Not Industries! A Value Chain Example, Randall W. Jackson, Patricio Aroca

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

Leontief and Stone both received Nobel Prizes in Economics for development and extension of input-output (IO) analysis, a framework that has gained little traction in mainstream U.S. economics. Although IO modeling has gained renewed focus in several problem domains, many contemporary economists eschew Stone's enhancements, resulting in inconsistent analytics, even in top economics journals. In this paper, we use an increasingly common approach to value chain analysis as one example that demonstrates such conceptual misunderstandings and by presenting properly formulated alternatives, we demonstrate the extent of the consequences of neglecting the Stone enhancements and important role of reproducing results.

A Model To Explain Statewide Differences In Covid-19 Death Rates, James L. Doti

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

COVID-19 death rates per 100,000 vary widely across the nation. As of September 1, 2020, they range from a low of 4 in Hawaii to a high of 179 in New Jersey. Although academic research has been conducted at the county and metropolitan levels, no research has rigorously examined or identified the demographic and socioeconomic forces that explain state-level differences. This study presents an empirical model and the results of regression tests that help identify these forces and shed light on the role they play in explaining COVID-19 deaths.

A stepwise regression model we tested exhibits a high degree of …

Selling Consumer Data For Profit: Optimal Market-Segmentation Design And Its Consequences, Kai Hao Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A data broker sells market segmentations created by consumer data to a producer with private production cost who sells a product to a unit mass of consumers with heterogeneous values. In this setting, I completely characterize the revenue-maximizing mechanisms for the data broker. In particular, every optimal mechanism induces quasi-perfect price discrimination. That is, the data broker sells the producer a market segmentation described by a cost-dependent cutoff, such that all the consumers with values above the cutoff end up buying and paying their values while the rest of consumers do not buy. The characterization of optimal mechanisms leads to …

Lessons Learned: Lorie Logan, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Lorie Logan is executive vice president in the Markets Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the System Open Market Account (SOMA) manager pro tem for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and head of Market Operations, Monitoring, and Analysis (MOMA).

Lessons Learned: Donald Kohn, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Kohn, an economist, is a 40-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. He served as a member of the Board of Governors, and was vice chair, from 2002-2010, which included the years of the global financial crisis (GFC).

The United Kingdom's Asset-Backed Securities Guarantee Scheme (U.K. Gfc), June Rhee

Journal of Financial Crises

The key structures of housing finance in the UK in the years leading up to the global financial crisis of 2007-09 consisted of retail deposits, secondary market funding and wholesale interbank lending. Although retail deposits were the major funder of UK mortgages, secondary market funding, which included covered bonds and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), accounted for 31% of UK mortgage lending in 2006. In 2007, the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market triggered a financial shock, and the shock quickly traveled beyond national borders. Regardless of differences in the UK mortgage market, investors’ concern over the prospects of the …

The United Kingdom's Credit Guarantee Scheme (U.K. Gfc), Christian M. Mcnamara

Journal of Financial Crises

The September 15, 2008, bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers resulted in a collapse of wholesale funding markets that threatened the ability of UK financial institutions to continue funding themselves. By the end of the month, two leading UK banks—HBOS and Bradford & Bingley—had to be rescued, and there was a real risk that the entire financial system could collapse. Faced with the need to stabilize the system, UK regulators on October 8 introduced a package of measures that included a £250 billion Credit Guarantee Scheme (the Guarantee Scheme) aimed at providing banks with access to needed funding. Under the Guarantee Scheme, …

Sweden's Guarantee Scheme (Sweden Gfc), Lily S. Engbith, Kevin Kiernan

Journal of Financial Crises

Although Sweden was not as directly impacted by the Global Financial Crisis as some other economies, Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, prompted Swedish authorities to take preemptive measures to protect domestic banks and financial institutions. One such program, announced on October 20, 2008, and implemented on October 29, 2008, was designed to preserve credit extension to businesses and households through what became known as the Swedish Guarantee Scheme. Per the terms of the Scheme, new short- and medium-term debt of maturities ranging from 90 days to five years issued by eligible banks would be guaranteed by the Swedish …

The Spanish Guarantee Scheme For Credit Institutions (Spain Gfc), Lily Engbith

Journal of Financial Crises

Given Spanish banks’ heavy investment in the housing and construction markets in the lead-up to the global financial crisis (GFC), the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, impelled the government to implement stabilization measures to calm, recapitalize, and restructure its domestic banking sector. The Spanish Guarantee Scheme for Credit Institutions (the Guarantee Scheme) was one of the first interventions to be enacted, announced by Spain’s Ministry of Economy and Finance on October 13, 2008, by Royal Decree-Law 7/2008 on “Urgent Economic and Financial Measures in relation to the Concerted Action Plan of …

The Portuguese Guarantee Scheme (Portugal Gfc), Julia A. Arnous

Journal of Financial Crises

By October 2008, Portuguese banks’ access to liquidity was severely restricted due to strains in international wholesale markets. On October 12-13, 2008, the Portuguese government notified the European Commission of a guarantee scheme intended to promote solvent credit institutions’ access to liquidity as part of the European policy response to the acute financial crisis aiming to achieve and maintain financial stability. Under the scheme, the Portuguese government guaranteed financing agreements and banks’ issuance of non-subordinated short- and medium-term debt. To obtain a guarantee under the Scheme, banks paid a fee based on the maturity of the debt and a risk …

The Polish Guarantee Scheme (Poland Gfc), Manuel Leon Hoyos

Journal of Financial Crises

Faced with the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, Poland implemented a scheme of State support for financial institutions. In view of a potential global credit crunch, it aimed at improving short- and medium-term liquidity of domestic financial institutions. The scheme came into force on March 13, 2009, and was approved by the European Commission under European Union State Aid rules on September 25, 2009. The scheme enabled the Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the State Treasury, to provide support in the form of Treasury guarantees on newly issued bank debt and the exchange of Treasury bonds for less liquid …

The Dutch Credit Guarantee Scheme (Netherlands Gfc), Lily Engbith

Journal of Financial Crises

As fallout from the global financial crisis intensified in October 2008, governments around the world sought to implement stabilization measures in order to calm and protect their domestic markets. While not directly exposed to the subprime mortgage crisis, the Kingdom of the Netherlands announced the creation of the Dutch Credit Guarantee Scheme (the Guarantee Scheme) on October 13, 2008, to boost confidence in interbank lending markets and to ensure the flow of credit to Dutch households and companies. In establishing this program, the Dutch State Treasury Agency of the Ministry of Finance (DSTA) committed €200 billion to support the issuance …

The State Guarantee Of External Debt Of Korean Banks (South Korea Gfc), Lily S. Engbith

Journal of Financial Crises

Following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy of September 15, 2008, a number of foreign governments enacted stabilization measures in order to bolster their currencies and inject much-needed liquidity into domestic markets. As part of its effort, the Korean Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced a series of government interventions that included a three-year guarantee of foreign debt issued (including extensions of maturity) by domestic banks between October 20, 2008, and June 30, 2009. This opt-in program was introduced as a preemptive step in ensuring that Korean financial institutions would retain competitive access to external funding in the wake of the global …

Ireland's Credit Institutions (Eligible Liabilities Guarantee) Scheme (Ireland Gfc), Claire Simon

Journal of Financial Crises

Following the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, Irish banks found themselves unable to roll over their significant foreign borrowings on the interbank lending market. With the banks facing a liquidity crisis, the Irish government decided to issue a blanket guarantee of all liabilities of six banks through the Credit Institutions Financial Support Scheme (CIFS). As the crisis worsened, and it became clear that Irish banks were facing a solvency—not just liquidity—crisis, the Irish government was forced to provide additional support to the financial system, which took the form of capital injections and a national asset management company for …

The Italian Guarantee Scheme (Italy Gfc), Lily Engbith

Journal of Financial Crises

The collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008, and its severe impact on global credit markets impelled governments around the world to enact stabilization measures to calm and protect their domestic economies. The Italian Republic, while not directly affected by the US subprime mortgage crisis, preemptively implemented emergency procedures and programs to ensure the stability of their banking system. Announced with the passage of Decree-Law No. 157 on October 13, 2008, and legally enforced under Law 190/2008 of December 4, 2008, the Italian Guarantee Scheme (the Guarantee Scheme) was aimed at protecting institutions whose interbank lending abilities had the …

The Hungarian Guarantee Scheme (Hungary Gfc), Alec Buchholtz

Journal of Financial Crises

In the midst of the global financial crisis, in October 2008, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), the Hungarian national bank, noticed a selloff of government securities by foreign banks and a large depreciation in the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint (HUF) in foreign exchange (FX) markets. Hungarian banks experienced liquidity pressures due to margin calls on FX swap contracts, prompting the MNB and Minister of Finance to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the World Bank. The IMF and ECB approved Hungary’s requests in late 2008 to create a €20 billion …

French Liquidity Support Through The Société De Financement De L’Economie (Sfef) (France Gfc), Everest Fang

Journal of Financial Crises

After the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in September 2008, financial panic and uncertainty intensified in Europe. In France, banks faced a widespread confidence crisis driven by fear that they were exposed to the US subprime market. In response, on October 13, 2008, the French government passed the “loi de finances rectificative pour le financement de I'économie.” This provided for the establishment of the Société de Financement de l’Economie Française (SFEF), a special purpose vehicle (SPV) jointly owned by the State and a group of banks and responsible for refinancing major French credit institutions. The SFEF raised funds on the …

The Guarantee Scheme For Bank Funding In Finland (Finland Gfc), Lily Engbith

Journal of Financial Crises

As the global financial crisis raged in October 2008, its severe impact on global credit markets impelled governments to enact stabilization measures to calm and protect their domestic economies. The Republic of Finland, though not directly affected, designed preemptive interventions to mitigate disruption to its financial system. Among them was the Guarantee Scheme for Bank Funding in Finland (the Guarantee Scheme), announced on October 22, 2008, and implemented on February 12, 2009, which aimed to support banks and mortgage institutions with their short- and medium-term financing needs. Under the program, the Finnish State Treasury made up to €50 billion available …

Denmark's Guarantee Scheme (Denmark Gfc), Keni Sabath

Journal of Financial Crises

The international financial system had been experiencing challenges for almost a year before the crisis truly manifested in Denmark during the Summer of 2008 with the sudden demise of Roskilde Bank, Denmark’s eighth largest bank. As more Danish banks became distressed in the fall of 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the government determined that it was necessary to intervene in the banking sector through actions such as taking over and winding up distressed banks, giving guarantees to back up the sector, and providing capital injections and liquidity support. This paper focuses on the two different types of guarantee …

The Canadian Lenders Assurance Facility (Canada Gfc), Claire Simon

Journal of Financial Crises

Following a meeting of Group of Seven leaders in October 2008, the Canadian Minister of Finance announced the creation of a new Canadian Lenders Assurance Facility (CLAF). The facility enabled federally regulated deposit-taking financial institutions to access government insurance of up to three years on newly issued senior unsecured wholesale debt. This mirrored similar programs in other countries to ensure that Canadian financial institutions were not competitively disadvantaged in the wholesale debt market at a time when most developed countries were guaranteeing their banks’ debt. This competitive disadvantage never materialized, and the facility was allowed to expire on December 31, …

The Belgian Credit Guarantee Scheme (Belgium Gfc), Aidan Lawson

Journal of Financial Crises

Much like other developed economies during the global financial crisis, Belgium faced substantial systemic stress to its large and heavily concentrated financial system. To combat these mounting pressures, the Belgian government launched a wide-ranging, opt-in state debt guarantee program in a concerted effort to instill confidence and stymie the fear of runs in its financial sector. The debt guarantee scheme, pursuant to which eligible institutions could issue government-guaranteed debt, was originally put into place on October 15, 2008, and retroactively covered liabilities entered into from October 9, 2008, to October 31, 2009, with a maximum maturity of three years. It …

Austria's Oesterreichische Clearingbank Ag (Oecag) (Austria Gfc), Claire Simon

Journal of Financial Crises

In October 2008, euro-area countries adopted a joint framework to guide national policies combatting the effects of the global financial crisis. In Austria, this led to the enactment of a number of measures and amendments, including the Interbank Market Support Act (Interbankmarktstärkungsgesetz, or IBSG). IBSG called for the establishment of a new clearing bank to facilitate interbank lending. It also permitted the Minister of Finance to guarantee up to €5 billion of short-term securities issued by the clearing bank and to absorb losses of the clearing bank up to €4 billion. The clearing bank, Oesterreichische Clearingbank AG (OeCAG), was owned …

Austria's Ibsg Guarantee Program (Austria Gfc), Claire Simon

Journal of Financial Crises

Following the adoption of a joint framework by euro-area countries in response to the intensifying financial crisis in October 2008, Austria enacted a package of measures including the Interbank Market Support Act (Interbankmarktstärkungsgesetz, "IBSG"). In addition to calling for the establishment of a new clearing bank to facilitate interbank lending, IBSG permitted the Austrian government to guarantee debt securities issued by other eligible institutions. Securities issued by eligible institutions with a maturity of three years or less (five years in exceptional circumstances) were eligible for guarantee. According to IBSG, the amount outstanding for all measures taken under the act could …

The Australian Government Guarantee Scheme For Large Deposits And Wholesale Funding (Australia Gfc), Ariel Smith

Journal of Financial Crises

The Australian Guarantee Scheme for Large Deposits and Wholesale Funding was developed in 2008 shortly after the failure of Lehman Brothers. It was designed to foster financial-system stability and confidence and to help depository institutions continue to access funding during a period of volatility. In addition to a guarantee for large deposits, the scheme allowed institutions to apply for a government guarantee for newly issued wholesale liabilities with maturities of up to five years; in return, the institutions paid the government a monthly fee based on their credit rating and the value of the debt guaranteed. The entire Guarantee Scheme …

The Debt Guarantee Program Of The Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (U.S. Gfc), Justin Katz

Journal of Financial Crises

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September of 2008, banks faced extreme difficulty in issuing new debt and finding affordable sources of funds due to heightened fears over counterparty solvency and liquidity risk. By the end of September, the TED spread had spiked to 464 basis points, and issuance of commercial paper fell 88%. On October 14th, to boost confidence and lower short-term financing costs, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced the Debt Guarantee Program (DGP) as part of the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP). Under the DGP, the FDIC guaranteed in full a limited amount of senior unsecured …

Bank Debt Guarantee Programs, Christian M. Mcnamara, Greg Feldberg, David Tam, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

One of the hallmarks of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 was the rapid evaporation of the non-deposit, wholesale funding many financial institutions had become increasingly reliant upon in the years leading up to the crisis. In the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, governments became increasingly concerned about even fundamentally sound institutions’ ability to access necessary funding. In response, beginning in October 2008, authorities across the globe began introducing guarantee programs enabling institutions to issue debt that would be backed by a guarantee from the government in exchange for a guarantee fee. While the specific details of these programs …

Denmark's Loan Bills Temporary Credit Facility (Denmark Gfc), Keni Sabath

Journal of Financial Crises

The loan bills temporary credit facility was first implemented in May 2008, before the Global Financial Crisis had truly hit Denmark. It continued to be utilized as part of a broader effort to increase interbank lending after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The objective of the loan bills scheme was to facilitate lending among financial institutions. Each week, loan bills could be pledged as collateral for a seven-day loan from Denmark’s central bank, Danmarks Nationalbank. One banking institution could borrow from another institution by issuing a loan bill, and the institution buying the bill could raise liquidity …