Economics Commons^™

Essays On Urban Economic Geography In Developing Countries, Taylor Lathrop

Dissertations - ALL

This dissertation contains two papers on urban economic geography in a developing country context. In the first, I identify and quantify local spillovers between firms of heterogeneous ownership type using a rich dataset of Indonesian manufacturing firms with granular location information. Within local clusters of manufacturing employment, I find an elasticity of domestic firm productivity with respect to the average quality of domestic neighbors of 0.025, and an elasticity of domestic firm productivity with respect to the average quality of foreign neighbors of 0.002. For foreign-owned firms, I find little evidence of productivity spillovers from neighbors of either ownership type. …

Predicting Thoroughbred Yearling Auction Prices With Machine Learning: Evidence From The Keeneland September Sale, Yanchao Yang, John Clarke, Tapaan Madal '26, Thinh Nguyen '26, Trung Pham '25

Business Analytics Faculty Publications

We apply machine learning methods to predict Thoroughbred yearling auction prices at the Keeneland September Sale (2020–2024). Our sample includes 5,788 yearling prices with pedigree data. We use both linear and tree-based models to predict log prices. We use cross-validation to tune model hyperparameters and select Ridge regression (α = 1.451) as the primary model for interpretation given its stability and interpretability. The Ridge regression explains approximately 54% of out-of-sample variation (R2≈ 0.5403). Sire and Dam Reputation emerge as the dominant predictors. Results provide pricing benchmarks and show how reputation and session structure shape Thoroughbred yearling auction prices.

Immigration, Innovation, And The Geography Of Growth, Costas Arkolakis, Sun Kyoung Lee, Michael Peters

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Between 1880 and 1920, more than 20 million immigrants settled in the United States. We study how this migration wave affected innovation and growth. Using a newly constructed dataset linking individual census records to historical immigration records and the universe of US patents, we highlight a new channel through which immigrants contributed to growth: they disproportionately settled in urban innovation hubs. To quantify the aggregate and regional effects of this mass migration episode, we develop a new spatial growth model in which skilled workers have a comparative advantage in innovation and sort endogenously across space. We find that international arrivals …

Passed Through Or Pushed Back? Exchange Rate Effects On Manufacturing Trade Prices In Indonesia And The Asean Plus Three, Fatikha Rizky Kurnia, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Wee-Yeap Lau, Unggul Heriqbaldi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzes the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) on export and import prices in Indonesia’s manufacturing trade with ASEAN Plus-three countries (China, Japan, and South Korea) using monthly data from 2016 to 2022. Employing the Nonlinear (NARDL) models, we examine the degree and asymmetry of ERPT across five key manufacturing sectors for each partner. The NARDL model confirms asymmetric price responses to currency appreciation and depreciation in several sectors. The findings reveal significant sectoral and country-specific variations. Some export sectors experience complete pass-through in the short term but shift to negative complete passthrough in the long run. Meanwhile, imports from …

Financial Stability Versus Bank Lending Channel Transmission: The Impact Of Bank Competition And Concentration In Indonesia, Alif Ihsan A Fahta, Chaikal Nuryakin

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Using financial data from 47 publicly listed banks in Indonesia from 2013Q4 to 2023Q3, this study employs a new approach by utilizing ΔCoVaR as a proxy for financial stability to examine how changes in bank competition in bank competition and banking industry concentration affects financial stability and the effectiveness of bank lending channel transmission. We find that, on one hand, an increase in market power (decreased bank competition) and an increase in banking industry concentration reduce financial stability. On the other hand, an increase in banking industry concentration enhances the effectiveness of the bank lending channel transmission by increasing the …

Expansion, Diversification, And Delinquency In Indonesian Fintech Lending Platforms, Muhammad Miqdad Robbani, Megat Nagainaka, Mahanani Margani

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines the impact of loan expansion and diversification strategies on credit risk in Indonesia’s fintech lending sector using panel data from 102 registered platforms between 2022 and 2025. Employing fixed-effects regression models, we analyse how loan growth and diversification influence delinquent loans. The findings reveal a non-linear relationship between loan growth and delinquent loans, implying that while moderate expansion reduces risk, excessive growth is associated with increased credit defaults, and diversification is not significant. These findings emphasise the importance of prudent growth and targeted risk management to ensure the sustainability of the fintech lending ecosystem.

Does Green Electricity Mitigate Carbon Emission Externalities? Industry-Specific Effects On Firm Profitability, Operational Efficiency, Valuation, And Market Risk In Taiwan Listed Companies, Mutiara Eka Puspita, Wei Hwa Pan, Bon Long Hsia, Huynh Phu Tan

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

his study explores the relationship between carbon emissions and firm financial performance across industries and how green electricity adoption moderates this effect. Using 9,925 firm-year observations from the Taiwan Economic Journal, we estimate panel regressions and compare Fixed Effects robust and Driscoll-Kraay (1998) standard errors to ensure robustness. Two-way and three-way interaction models reveal a green electricity paradox: biotech firms benefit, while financial and high-tech sectors decline. These findings highlight the need for sector-specific ESG investment models and tailored policy support to ensure an equitable green transition. The study contributes by integrating environmental-financial dynamics with industry heterogeneity in emerging markets

Hierarchical Bayesian Evidence On Cbdc Adoption: The Case Of Indonesia’S Digital Rupiah, Akbar Syahid Rabbani, Jongsu Lee

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzed accessibility, privacy, transferability, and interest rates related to the adoption of Digital Rupiah, Indonesia’s Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), among rural and urban consumers. Findings from a hierarchical Bayesian model show that mobile applications are the main acquisition channel, and enhanced transferability with bank accounts and electronic money boosts consumer utility. However, there are concerns about fully anonymous transactions, differentiated by socio-demographic profiles (age, income, education, and knowledge). Scenario analysis suggests the potential CBDC adoption rate in Indonesia could range from 38% to 55%, influenced by privacy levels and the central bank’s interest rates.

Is Fdi A Panacea? Unveiling Spillover Effects On Efficiency And Risk In Indonesian Manufacturing, Fichrie Fachrowi Adli, Dyah Wulan Sari, Dian Enggar Lintang Pertiwi, Mohammad Zeqi Yasin

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study builds on Javorcik (2004), who argues that countries attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) with the expectation that spillovers will benefit local firms. However, empirical evidence on this effect remains inconsistent. This research addresses the gap by examining the impact of horizontal spillovers not only on production efficiency but also on production risk. It also accounts for firm heterogeneity in the manufacturing sector by classifying technological intensity using unsupervised machine learning, specifically K-means clustering, into three categories based on OECD (2011): High Technology (HT), Medium Technology (MT), and Low Technology (LT). The study uses data from Statistik Industri (SI) …

Millennials Will Pay The Price: Demographic Imbalance And Reform Inertia In Canada’S And Spain’S Pension Systems, Javier E. Burgos Oliva

Journal of New Finance

This paper examines how demographic imbalance and policy inertia undermine intergenerational equity in Canada’s partially funded and Spain’s pay-as-you-go pension systems. Despite structural differences, both nations transfer financial risks to Millennials and Gen Z due to aging populations, low fertility, and political resistance to reform. Using a comparative political economy framework and a stylized hyperbolic discounting model, the study shows institutional design alone cannot prevent unsustainability when incentives favor short-term gains. Policy recommendations include automatic adjustment mechanisms, independent fiscal councils, and private pension incentives.

The Other Side Of Peruvian Private Pension System, Paolo Daniel Jara

Journal of New Finance

Between 2020 and 2025, Peru's Congress authorized eight extraordinary withdrawal rounds from the Private Pension System (SPP), liquidating USD 38 billion. This paper argues that the trajectory is the empirical convergence of two analytically distinct failures. The first, from below, reflects the mismatch between the system's behavioral assumptions and a heterogeneous, predominantly informal workforce. The second, from above, reflects short-cycle electoral incentives, institutional asymmetry between Congress and the regulator, and slippery-slope dynamics. The paper proposes a reform combining free disposal of pension funds with individual fiscal responsibility, mediated by a binding waiver of the state-funded solidarity pension.

[Review Of] The Divine Economy: How Religions Compete For Wealth, Power And People, Steven Pfaff

Sociology Faculty Articles and Research

A review of Paul Seabright's The Divine Economy: How Religions Compete for Wealth, Power, and People.

The Road To Gerontocracy, Juan David Bohorquez Pacateque, Alonso Morales Sánchez Mejorada, Paul Alexander Villegas Muñoz

Journal of New Finance

The purpose of this article is to develop a reform proposal for current pension systems based on a robust political economy approach. The research is documentary, conducting critical analysis of texts and evidence collection from various pension schemes from a public choice perspective to elaborate a comparative institutional analysis. Pension schemes, being influenced by political processes, are susceptible to adopting institutions that are inefficient, so a politically and economically robust reform is proposed. In conclusion, taking into account that pension systems can be co-opted by the political process, it is not sufficient to propose financially sustainable schemes but also ones …

Retirement At Risk: The Political Economy Of Public Pension Governance, Allen Mendenhall, Dan Sutter

Journal of New Finance

State public pension systems manage over $6 trillion in assets while facing approximately $1.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities, raising fundamental questions about governance effectiveness and fiduciary accountability. This Article examines these challenges through the analytical framework of governance, applying insights from public choice, principal-agent models, and corporate governance to argue that details in implementation significantly impact outcomes.  We offer Ohio’s State Teachers Retirement System (STRS) as a case study. Recent governance reforms in Ohio—including legislative restructuring of the STRS board and enactment of fiduciary standards legislation modeled on the American Legislative Exchange Council’s framework—suggest the potential for earlier governance problems. …

Analyzing Retirement Systems Through A Triad Framework: Lessons For U.S. Reform, Romina Boccia, Ivane Nachkebia

Journal of New Finance

As U.S. Social Security approaches insolvency, this paper analyzes the program’s challenges through a political economy lens and makes two new contributions. First, it introduces a normative triad framework for evaluating retirement systems based on individual autonomy, fiscal sustainability, and poverty alleviation. Second, it applies this framework to five advanced economies—Canada, Germany, New Zealand, Sweden, and the U.S.—to identify institutional features associated with differences in outcomes. Deriving implications for U.S. reform, we propose four recommendations: transition Social Security to a flat-benefit system, slow benefit growth, adopt automatic stabilizers, and expand flexible savings options.

Education For Sustainable Economic Development – Insights From Brazil, Ozéias Rodrigues Da Rocha

Doctoral

Purpose: This doctoral thesis examines the impact of Education for Economic Sustainable Development (ESD) in the municipality of Turmalina-MG, Brazil, with a focus on how primary education contributes to sustainable economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social equity. The research is guided by the central question: What is the impact of Education for Economic Sustainable Development (ESD)? The study also evaluates the extent to which local educational initiatives align with specific Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Methodology: Data were collected from one dominant primary school in Turmalina-MG through semi-structured …

The Interplay Between Deficit Spending And Financial Instability: An Examination Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy Interactions, Heidie Jean George

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

This study investigates the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on financial stability and fragility, focusing on how government spending and deficits contribute to the economic and financial system. Drawing on Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) and Financial Fragility Hypothesis (FFH), the research examines the dynamic relationship between fiscal policy, financial stability, and economic stability. The study focuses on understanding how government spending and deficits affect the economic and financial system in context of private and public debt and policy interactions and the role of system risk factors. The study uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Vector Autoregression (VAR), Impulse Response …

From Innovation To Speculation: Ai And The Magnificent Seven, Rerotlhe B. Basele, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The AI boom has driven the Nasdaq and the Magnificent Seven tech stocks to record highs. But how much do these new records reflect underlying value, how much is speculation, and how vulnerable are these stocks and the wider market to a major downturn? Our evidence and analyses show clear signs of bubble exuberance in most of these stocks, concentrated in a few names like Nvidia, leading to latent risks for investors who assume their index funds are safely diversified and supported by wider economic fundamentals.

Manufactured Homes In The Mountain West, 2025, Yiselle Olivas Ruiz, Dre Boyd-Weatherly, Taylor Volk, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Housing & Real Estate

This fact sheet presents 2025 data on manufactured homes in the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The Construction Coverage report, “U.S. States Investing Most in Manufactured Homes,” based on analysis from the U.S Census Bureau and Zillow’s Home Value Index, includes data on all fifty states. This fact sheet focuses on the number of manufactured homes, site-built home permits, and the average price of manufactured homes in the Mountain West.

Innovation Hubs In Mountain West Cities, 2025, Cason Noll, Sean Curry, Olivia K. Cheche, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents data on 20 innovation-dense Mountain West cities across Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The CommercialCafe report, “Santa Clara, Berkeley & Tempe Lead Among Western Innovation Hubs,”  uses 15 indicators to rank 63 western cities for innovation hub activity across three categories: employment and talent, education, and business activity.