Economics Commons^™

How Much Should A Conversational Recommender System Converse?, Akshit Kumar, Vahideh Manshadi, Akhilesh Tumu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Conversational recommender systems powered by generative AI can enhance personalization by facilitating information elicitation through follow-up questions. However, engaging in these conversations imposes a communication cost on users. As platforms with different objectives and monetization models deploy these systems, a central question is: how does the platform’s objective and sellers’ strategic response shape the design of these systems in terms of their elicitation strategy? We develop a parsimonious model of conversational elicitation in which interaction generates noisy preference information and imposes a communication cost borne by the user. A user-welfare-maximizing platform elicits more information when accurate niche matching yields large …

Life After Divorce: Effects Of Joint Custody On Parents And Children, Stella Canessa, Gordon B. Dahl, Anna Hasselqvist, Costas Meghir, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, Helmut Rainer, Olof Rosenqvist, Pengpeng Xiao

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Divorce reshapes family life, yet little is known about one of its most consequential features: the allocation of child custody. We study the impact of joint versus sole custody on both parents and children using rich administrative data from Sweden linked to over 25 years of newly-collected court custody rulings. To address selection concerns, we exploit random assignment of custody disputes to judges who differ sharply in their propensity to grant joint custody. For fathers, joint custody substantially raises earnings and improves mental health, consistent with sustained paternal involvement enhancing labor market attachment and psychological well-being. In contrast, there are …

Ai Premium, Nicola Borri, Yukun Liu, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Using 380 trillion tokens of realized AI consumption across more than four hundred large language models from the licensed proprietary OpenRouter dataset covering approximately 2 percent of current global monthly AI token consumption, we analyze how AI affects firms, markets, and workers. Leveraging the unprecedented size, scope and granularity data, we construct the AI Factor from growth in tokens, dollars, and users, estimate firm-level AI Betas from stock return comovement, and characterize the AI Premium. First, we build a high-frequency AI factor and decompose it into salient components. Second, we show that firms whose returns covary more positively with the …

Credit Surfaces And Economic Uncertainty, John Geanokopolis, David E. Rappaport

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The Credit Surface along the leverage dimension gives the bond spread as a function of the loan-to-value ratio. Empirically, we show that uncertainty shocks typically increase spreads and steepen the credit surface, profoundly affecting the supply of credit. Theoretically, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the convexity of the credit surface, and for changes in the anticipated distribution of collateral prices that lead to steepening of the credit surface. Finally, we show that the credit surface itself fully reveals the entire distribution of collateral prices, thus providing a new and vivid language with which to describe uncertainty and stochastic …

The Displacement Effects Of Domestic Outsourcing, Mayara Felix, Michael B. Wong

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Evidence that domestic outsourcing lowers pay comes largely from on-site transfers, in which workers move to a contractor but keep the same jobs. Displacement is rarely observed: whether workers lose their jobs, where they go, how earnings evolve. In Brazil’s 1993–1994 pro-outsourcing reforms, which differentially affected security guards, such transfers were rare; firms instead used occupational layoffs, shedding their guards while keeping other workers. Displaced guards’ employment recovered within five years, but many changed occupations and wages stayed about 12% lower. Lifetime losses average 1.2 to 1.5 years of pre-layoff earnings, concentrated among workers from high-wage firms, reflecting lost premia.

Domestic Outsourcing And Young-Worker Entry Into The Formal Sector, Mayara Felix, Michael B. Wong

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We provide evidence that domestic outsourcing increases young-worker entry into the formal sector. Leveraging a pair of 1993–1994 Brazilian reforms that reduced the relative cost of outsourcing security guards, a triple-differences design shows that the reforms increased formal guard employment by 4% and hiring from unemployment or informality by 7%, while reallocating formal employment from older to younger workers and leaving demographic-adjusted wages unchanged. Census data corroborate the rise in formality, driven by the youngest cohorts. The compositional shift mirrors a general pattern in Brazil’s matched employer–employee records: conditional on total firm size, employers with greater occupation-specific scale hire younger …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast Volume 29, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 10, Number 7, Thomas M. Fullerton, Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Shifting Production, Rising Value Added: A Global Value Chain Perspective On Sectoral Competitiveness In Asean, Van Chung Nguyen

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The ongoing relocation of production activities from China to Southeast Asia, driven by geopolitical and supply chain restructuring, has created new opportunities for ASEAN economies to enhance their positions in regional and global value chains. This study examines trends in cooperation and competition in value-added creation among ASEAN countries during 2015–2025 using the Multiregional Input–Output (MRIO) analysis. The results show significant differences in sectoral value-added growth across ASEAN members. Vietnam and Cambodia recorded the highest growth rates, particularly in manufacturing industries, whereas Singapore maintained its leading position in high-value and technology-intensive sectors. In contrast, Thailand and Malaysia experienced moderate growth, …

Institutional Barriers To Agro-Food Export Upgrading: Evidence From Indonesia’S Modified Cassava Flour Sector, Arie Kusuma Paksi, Fiya Ainur Rohmatika, Melvin Jabar

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The growing global demand for functional and sustainable foods has prompted developing countries to explore alternative exports, including Indonesia’s modified cassava flour (MOCAF). Despite its environmental benefits and gluten-free properties, MOCAF’s penetration into European markets remains limited. This study examines institutional barriers constraining MOCAF exports using Scott’s framework of regulative, normative, and cognitive institutions. A qualitative approach combined in- depth interviews, town hall meetings, and secondary data from governmental and international sources. Findings show that institutional constraints, rather than product quality alone, hinder European Union market entry and reduce competitiveness. Regulative barriers include fragmented logistics and high certification costs. Normative …

Digital Privacy In Marketing And Advertising: A Review Of Evolving Consumer Concerns, Stakeholder Dynamics, And Theoretical Perspectives, Galvin Kuan Sian Lee

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The intensification of data-driven advertising has heightened public scrutiny of digital privacy and exposed persistent contradictions in consumer behavior. This structured integrative narrative review critically synthesizes contemporary research on the privacy paradox in digital advertising, with emphasis on consumer privacy concerns, stakeholder tensions, trust formation, transparency, perceived control, and privacy-reconfiguring advertising ecosystems. Drawing on interdisciplinary evidence from marketing, information systems, and digital policy research, the review maps five key domains: the evolution of privacy concerns; multi-theoretic perspectives explaining privacy-related behaviors; stakeholder tensions among consumers, advertisers, and regulators; the effect of privacy perceptions on trust and engagement; and the role of …

How Relevant Is Money Supply? A Cross-Country And Cross-Variable Analysis, Ahmad Alharbi, Moid U. Ahmad

DLSU Business & Economics Review

Extensive discussions have been conducted on traditional and new-age macroeconomic theories in the context of the money supply and its determinants. This article contributes to the literature by analyzing money supply and its interactions with four other macroeconomic variables: GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and prices. Using annual panel data from 55 countries from 2000 to 2023, the study applies various regression techniques and causal analyses to assess money supply determinants. Most analytical techniques indicated a significant relationship between money supply, national income, and foreign exchange rates.

The Contributors, Marites Tiongco

DLSU Business & Economics Review

No abstract provided.

Estimasi Underground Economy Triwulanan Di Indonesia Pada Tahun 2010–2023, Ghina Anandhia, Hardius Usman

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Underground economics have a significant impact on economy. Underground economy leads to low potential state revenues from the tax sector. This study estimates the quarterly value of the underground economy in Indonesia from 2010 to 2023 using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The results show that the average value of the underground economy in Indonesia is IDR138,392.32 billion, equivalent to 5.36 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.72 percent of tax revenue from 2010 to 2023. GDP and tax burden variables have a positive influence on currency demand.

Locally Robust Implementation Of Efficient Bilateral Trade With Correlated Beliefs, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We identify the ex ante welfare (EAW) condition as a necessary requirement to implement ex post efficient bilateral trade in any finite type space with interdependent values and correlated beliefs. As these finite settings become finer to approximate a continuous type space, we derive a limit EAW condition by taking the EAW condition in finite settings to its limit. We show that this limit condition trivially holds in the benchmark continuous setting admitting a full-support density function. We then insist on locally robust implementation by requiring efficient trade to be implemented uniformly across all finite type spaces that approximate the …

Occupation Ladders Over The Business Cycle, Ismail Baydur, Toshihiko Mukoyama

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies occupational mobility over the business cycle. We divide occupations into two broad groups, “attractive” and “nonattractive”, where we label an occupation attractive if the total net inflow into this occupation through job-to-job transition is positive. We measure total net inflows into both occupation groups. We measure these inflows separately for job-to-job transitions and transitions from unemployment to employment. We find that the net inflow from nonattractive to attractive occupations through job-to-job transitions slows during recessions. The net inflow through transitions from unemployment has a similar cyclicality. This finding suggests a novel cost of recession: during recessions, workers …

Labor Market Outcomes Realized By Senior High School Graduates: A Research Note, Francine Ysabel D. Gañgan, Tereso S. Tullao, Jr.

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The study evaluates the impact of the K-12 reform on providing employment opportunities to senior high school (SHS) graduates. It employed a novel strategy for causal inference using two rounds of the merged Family Income and Expenditure Survey-Labor Force Survey (FIES-LFS) in 2015 and 2023. High school graduates from FIES-LFS 2015 form the control group, whereas SHS graduates from FIES-LFS 2023 form the treatment group. This design provided a clear demonstration of the causal effect of graduating from SHS on their labor market outcomes. The study performed a two-stage methodology: propensity score matching and adjusted multivariate regression after achieving matching …

Institutions, Innovation, And Structural Transformation: Advancing Business And Economics Research In Emerging Economies, Marites Tiongco

DLSU Business & Economics Review

No abstract provided.

Montana’S Outfitting Industry - 2024 Economic Contribution And Industry-Client Analysis, Carter Bermingham, Kara Grau, Emma Keinath-Lopez

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Montana's outfitting and guiding industry remains a vital economic sector driven primarily by nonresident visitors, generating an estimated $314 million in direct expenditures in 2024 and supporting more than $1.27 billion in total economic output when indirect and induced effects are included. This report, an update to ITRR's 2017 industry analysis, draws on a survey of outfitting businesses alongside ITRR's annual nonresident visitor survey to examine roughly 980,000 clients served by an estimated 1,500 outfitting and guiding entities statewide. While wildlife viewing and sightseeing attracted the largest share of clients, fishing generated the most revenue despite serving a smaller portion …

Meeting & Convention Tourism In Montana, Glenna Hartman, Elena Bigart, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

As meeting and convention travel continues its post-pandemic rebound, Montana still lacks a comprehensive picture of this growing sector's reach and impact. This report offers the state's first statewide analysis of meetings and conventions — examining their economic contribution to local communities, the factors that make Montana an attractive destination, the scale and geographic spread of events across the state, and how Montana compares to national industry benchmarks.

The findings paint a promising picture: 75% of meeting planners say they'd recommend Montana, and over half plan to bring events to the state in the next one to three years. Montana's …