Macroeconomics Commons^™

The Economic Impacts Of A U.S. Withdrawal From Nafta: A Cge Analysis, Jonathan Liu

Undergraduate Economic Review

The aim of this study is to examine the economic impacts of a U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Canada, Mexico and the United States. The shocks simulate scenarios in which the U.S instates penalizing tariff rates on NAFTA countries, a trade war between NAFTA members and a tariff reset to the WTO MFN rates. The effects of these tariff structures are analyzed under the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on macroeconomic variables and welfare. The findings show that, in all iterations, Mexico’s economy takes a substantial hit, America’s …

Essays In Business Cycles And Asset Pricing, Ruiyang Hu

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates several key macroeconomic and asset pricing topics, with a particular interest in exploring the underlying driving forces of business cycles and asset market fluctuations. The dissertation includes three chapters, with the first two chapters solo-authored by me and the third chapter co-authored with Dr. Carlos Zarazaga.

The first chapter develops a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model, and exploits Bayesian inference methods to investigate the major sources of fluctuations in aggregate variables and asset prices. Taking into account the possibility that the growth of total factor productivity, labor-augmenting technology and investment-specific technology might consist of permanent and …

Public Policy And Millennium Development Challenges: Case Study Of Africa, Pathkonn Kombate

Master's Theses

Abstract:

Based on a panel of 50 African countries from 1970 to 2015, this study analyzes the impact of public investments and spending in education and health sectors on GDP per capita growth. I separately modeled for education and health capital, while controlling for governance and demonstrated the importance of investments and expenditures on human capital in countries production capacity accumulation, which in the long run leads sustainable economic growth. Results show a positive relationship between spending in those sectors and the per capita income growth and proves their importance on the continents’ combat against poverty.

The Significance Of Mongolia's Foreign Policy And Security Apparatus On A Global And Regional Scale, Bolor Lkhaajav

Master's Projects and Capstones

Mongolia, land-locked between two politically, economically, and militarily powerful nations — Russia and China — often must balance its foreign and security policies with its two neighbors and countries beyond. When discussing Mongolia’s foreign policy and security apparatus, historians and scholars look at the international relations of East Asia as a whole. This is the case not because Mongolia’s foreign policy is insignificant but because greater powers impose greater influence on smaller states. Mongolia’s partial involvement in World War II (WWII), and the Cold War introduced new challenges as well as opportunities for Mongolia to modernize its foreign policy principles …

Institutional Quality And Illicit Financial Flows In Developing And Developed Countries: An Empirical Assessment, Zin Kyaw Lin

Theses and Dissertations

This paper investigates the direct linkage between institutional quality and illicit financial flows (IFFs) of 47 developing and developed countries from the period of 2005 to 2014. Corruption and political stability are found to be correlated to the IFFs.

A New Keynesian Approach To Estimating Welfare Losses Under Strict And Flexible-Targeting Regimes, Shawn Weber

Theses and Dissertations

How do different inflation-targeting regimes affect the monetary loss-function of a central bank aiming at stabilizing inflation around an inflation target and stabilizing the real economy? Under a basic New-Keynesian framework, this paper examines the effect of inflation-targeting regimes on the monetary loss function of a central bank.

Analyzing Housing Demand And Its Role In The U.S. Economy, Irina Ayzenberg

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

In the most recent economic downturn, caused by the burst of the housing bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis, the housing market took a direct hit: mortgage default rates were over 10 percent, housing prices fell 35 percent from 2005 to 2009, more than 5 million homes were foreclosed since 2008, and interest rates hit rock-bottom. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted aggressive expansionary monetary policies to get the economy back on track, some of which are in effect today. In order to really understand the state and direction of the U.S. economy today, we need to better understand …

Does Debt Matter?, Luhan Li

Applied Economics Theses

National debt is a popular topic, since people have a lot of different views on national debt. For example, many people think that there is a positive relationship between national debt and GDP per capita. In other words, the national debt has also increased with the growth of GDP per capita. However, some people feel that there is an inverse relationship between them, so much so that the topic has been discussed. Based on my interest in this topic, I decided to discuss this question. This paper will discuss their influence and importance by analyzing national debt, GDP per capita, …

The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Price Of Gold, Yunhao Sun

Applied Economics Theses

My thesis is that macro factors have been important to the change of the gold price, but have had a differential impact in three factors: Gross Global Product (GGP), real interest rate, and U.S. dollar index (USDI). I estimated the 1^st difference of the gold model to determine the impact of macro factors on the price of gold per quarter. The model was estimated using the OLS approach the sample size was 148. I make use of data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic data. The result was that 1^st difference model had statistically insignificant coefficients. …

Literacy Rates Analysis: An International Comparison, Macarena Arce

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper attempts to provide a more complete reckoning of the economics of literacy rates around the world. It consists on a literature review about the economic benefits and costs of literacy rates and then it shows two econometrics models that attempt to predict literacy rates based on GDP, government expenditure, and several other independent variables.

Market Imperfections, Macroeconomic Conditions, And Capital Structure Dynamics: A Cross-Country Study, Moonsoo Kang, Wei Wang, Ying Xiao

Business Faculty Publications

This paper investigates how “systematic” adjustment costs proxied by market imperfections and macroeconomic conditions affect capital structure dynamics in a cross-country setting. We document substantial variations in firms’ capital structure adjustments across countries and, particularly, over time. Consistent with adjustment costs impeding firms from rebalancing their capital structures, worse market imperfections are associated with slower speeds of adjustment (SOA) and larger leverage deviations. Intertemporally, capital structure adjustment is procyclical, with SOA increasing by 0.9 percentage point for a one-percentage-point increase in GDP growth rate. The procyclicality is attributable to good macroeconomic conditions mitigating market imperfections through channels of 1) facilitating …

2008 Financial Crisis And The Deviation From The Taylor Rule, Uzoma H. Okoye

Honors College Theses

In this paper, we derive possible causes of the 2008 financial crisis, as well as provide evidence of a possible deviation from the Taylor rule by the Federal Reserve. This research draws up mostly primary sources such as published books and speeches by John B. Taylor himself, as well as articles from academic journals related to the topic. Other prior research tends to take a side on the argument as to whether the Federal Reserve deviated or not. This paper serves as a descriptive analysis of different sides of the argument to come up with suggestions regarding the Fed’s actions.

The Effect Of Excess Reserves On U.S Real Gross Domestic Product, Prince J. Adjei

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

The recent financial crisis has triggered questions regarding the role of the Federal Reserve Bank and the effectiveness of its intervention in the financial markets, post the crisis. This paper investigates the impact of huge spikes in excess reserves on the U.S. real gross domestic product. U.S. Federal Reserve in an effort to deal with the 2008 financial crisis instituted a series of programs aimed at taming the impact of the crisis. Through its emergency lending activities and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs, the Federal Reserve created a huge spike in excess reserves to levels not seen before. The empirical findings …

Aiding To Repair: An Analysis On The Impact Of Foreign Aid In Rwanda After The 1994 Genocide, Mary Atta-Dakwa

International Relations Honors Papers

Between April 1994 to July 1994, about 1 million Hutus and Tutsis were murdered in the Rwandan genocide. The genocide not only severely declined the population of Rwandans, but largely impacted its infrastructure, government, and economy. After the genocide, about $15 billion US dollars was sent to provide humanitarian aid. Post-genocide Rwanda has seen a significant growth in its economy; however, speculators may question if the economic growth is attributed to the foreign aid it received after the 1994 genocide. This paper seeks to examine the impact of foreign aid on post-war reconstruction on Rwanda as a case study.

Economic Impact Of Imposing Excise Tax On Plastic Bottles Of Drinks, Eugenia Mardanugraha

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This research simulates the effect of imposing excise tax on plastic container of drinks towards economic performance of beverage industry in Indonesia and governments ´Zs tax revenue. The results showed that by imposing excise tax on plastic cups and plastic bottles the government would lose tax revenue from value added tax (PPN) and corporate income tax (PPh badan) more than they gain additional revenue from excise tax. Hence, imposing excise tax on drink containers should serve a clear purpose and an undeniable reason. This paper recommends the government to develop proper excise infrastructure to extend the goods or services to …

On Nonlinear Relationship Between Inflation And Economic Growth: A Study Of Asean-5 Countries Period 2000€“2016, Ambar Galih, Sugiharso Safuan

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Money (inflation) has played a vital role in economic growth. However, the nexus between them has always drawn mesmerizing debates. From the thoughts of Classical and Keynes which argued the existence of money neutrality, to the level of empirical studies which find either positive or negative correlation between inflation and economic growth. Recent studies concerning the debatable relationship have evolved it into a hypothesis whether the relation is nonlinear with a threshold or a point where the link switches. This study aims to re-examine the causality between inflation and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries period 2000Q1-2016Q4. The results based on …

Indonesia Poverty Reduction Strategies: Shifting Policies To Promote Employment In The Poorest Four Deciles, Ardi Adji, Sri Hartini Rachmad

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper observes the working status and conditions of people who fall into the poorest four deciles in Indonesia. The research aims to provoke policy shifts in the drive to accelerate poverty reduction in Indonesia, taking a longer view of people being more employable and less dependent; also identifying the dominant factors preventing people from moving out of poverty and improving their life quality. By comparing elements of gender, age, education and health against employment status and opportunities. Simultaneously social assistance and protection programs are evaluated in relation to their stated target groups to determine their suitability and their impact.

Provinces And Local Government Revenues Structures And Intra-Province Economic Disparity, Riatu Qibthiyyah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

One of major policies of Indonesia Decentralisation is the adoption on various type of revenue sharing among provinces and local governments and also the devolved of taxes to lower level government in particular to the province level. Challenges of policy toward higher degree of revenue autonomy, is that an increase in revenue sharing as well as devolved taxes would enhance economic disparity among regions. Further, our finding shows that different types of revenue sharing seem to have different effect on intra-province economic disparity.

Planning To Fail: The Eurozone, Its Sovereign Debt Crisis, And The Future Of The Union, Kyle Whitworth

Theses

The European Union has been one of the greatest accomplishments of modern history. Through economic and political integration has ended centuries of warfare on the continent while producing the worlds largest trading bloc. Despite the initial success of the monetary union and its single currency, the Union has been bogged down economic troubles in the form of a debt crisis among several of the member states. The recovery period of the crisis has produced growth that is slow and uneven. Countries such as Germany has assumed the role of the economic powerhouse of Europe and therefore a political leader in …

Making The Grade: The Contribution Of Education Expenditure To Economic Growth, Neil Frank

Undergraduate Economic Review

Does education expenditure promote long-run economic growth? Empirical evidence is inconclusive. This paper addresses the question of how education expenditure influences economic growth using a long run growth accounting model analyzing 179 countries from 1970 to 2014. Overall, the results indicate that education expenditure does positively affect growth. However, when the sample is split into different criteria based on economic prosperity of the countries in question, the results change. In non-oil countries education expenditure increases economic growth, in developing countries education expenditure has a negative impact and in OECD countries the impact is non-significant.