Macroeconomics Commons^™

Modeling The Economic Machine Using Bayesian Inference And Statistical Networks, And Optimal Portfolio Construction Using Operations Research, Richard Yang

ENGS 88 Honors Thesis (AB Students)

In this paper, we propose a network-based model to attempt to connect modern macroeconomic theory with real world economic observations and trends. We find that by extending macroeconomic theory with credit leveraging/deleveraging thresholds, we are able to explain economic cycles in addition to long-term growth. Furthermore, we specifically explore the growth-inflation view of the macro economy as a basis for optimal portfolio construction and efficient asset trading. Connecting our network-based macroeconomic model and our optimal portfolio construction algorithm, we create a novel macroeconomic asset-trading framework.

The Argentine Great Depression, Laira Aggarwal, Francois Ries, Alejandro Salvador

Undergraduate Economic Review

The purpose of this paper is to comprehend the business cycle of the Argentine Crisis (1998-2002). The following paper will outline the crisis, starting off with a comprehensive literature review on the topic, analyzing its causes and consequences, followed by a survey on the policy-responses undertaken by the Argentine government to combat the recession. The crisis will then be analyzed in the context of the IS-LM model of macroeconomics.

Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping Of Firm Political Preferences By Sector In Mexico, Ian Connors

Master's Theses

Can the stock market be used to determine the political preferences of individual economic sectors? This paper explores the conceptual relationship between electoral outcomes and financial markets in Mexico. Specifically, it analyzes how financial markets predict the expected effects of a given political platform on the performance of firms within specific sectors. To do this, the study used event-study methodology to calculate abnormal returns on stock prices across the nine sectors listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores stock exchange following the historic election of leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), On July 1, 2018. However, despite the uncertainty …

Labor Market Policies And Women’S Labor Market Activity In The United States And Germany, Brianna Repke

Senior Honors Projects

In terms of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and many other measures, the United States and Germany are both economic leaders in the global world. However, gender gaps persist in the labor markets of both countries. This paper examines these gender gaps and various labor market policies that are intended to reduce them. The policies examined include gender equality policies and family-oriented policies in the two countries. Over the last few decades, most of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries have experienced low and decreasing birth rates. In response, several countries have introduced parental leave regulations …

Essays On Convex Weighting For Global Vector Autoregressive Models, Garrison Leach

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on studying the impact that weighting schemes can have on forecasting performance and dynamic analysis in global vector autoregressive (GVAR) models. The first chapter discusses an existing gap in the literature regarding weighting scheme choice and develops a simple, yet powerful method for defining richer spatial linkages in a way that doesn’t sacrifice economic context. The new technique called convex weighting, extends the set of available options for defining spatial linkages in models that handle the curse of dimensionality via compression and offers a justifiable approach to alleviating uncertainty. The second and third chapters apply the newly …

Empirical Analysis Of China’S Exchange Rate And Macroeconomic Policy, Jia Ji

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines the effects of exchange rate and macroeconomic policy in China. It consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 explores the dynamics of monetary transmission mechanism. As China’s domestic financial markets deepen and develop further toward a market-based system, the country’s monetary policy transmission should continue to improve in the sense that the policy instrument’s influence on economic conditions increases in magnitude and stabilized across time. Using a short-term key interest rate as a standard monetary policy tool and time-varying parameter techniques, this study empirically demonstrates that China’s monetary policy framework is in the midst of transitioning to a …

A Cge-Model Analysis Of U.S. Imposed Automotive Tariffs, Angela Li

Undergraduate Economic Review

Using a computable generable equilibrium (CGE) model, this research paper evaluates the effects of a U.S. imposed 25% automotive import tariff on NAFTA countries and the European Union, the greatest U.S. automotive trade partners. Three simulations were conducted: the implementation of tariffs with no retaliation, equivalent retaliation on the same products, and retaliation on the top exports of politically significant states, with sensitivity analysis applied in the final scenario. The results demonstrate that the EU is marginally affected while the NAFTA countries experience the greatest increases in prices and reduction in total wages.

A Macroeconomic Approach For Modeling Road Traffic Fatality Rates, Josephine Unger

Undergraduate Research Conference

Introduction

After spending a month in Senegal, I noticed the lack of sound infrastructure and safe, reliable transportation systems. Using World Bank data I developed a macroeconomic predictive model for national road traffic mortality rates.

The Role Of Income Inequality As A Predictor Of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Daniel Friedberg

Student Scholar Showcase

The role of income inequality in relation to gross domestic product is of great importance in modern time. Income inequality is a pressing phenomenon in the fields of economics, politics, and sociology, while Gross Domestic Product is the benchmark statistic in measuring the health of any economy. But how well does income inequality serve as a predictor for the level of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP per capita within a nation? This cross-sectional study determines that the GINI Index has no significant statistical relationship with PPP GDP per capita level. While income inequality is a major economic variable that contributes …

Opioid Overdose And Unemployment In The Uk, Hayden Grace

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

Opioid overdose in the United Kingdom has risen drastically over the last few years along with the rise in the use of zero-hours contracts. Zero-hours contracts are contracts for employment that guarantee no work but can anchor a person to a job that doesn’t pay above minimum wage when they do not receive work. Since opioid use is often associated with poorer economic conditions in the United States, this paper attempts to measure any correlation between poverty and opioid use in the UK. Using zero-hours contracts as a proxy for underemployment we use several regression models to determine the predictability …

Hedge Funds In The Periphery: An Analysis Of Structures Influencing Fund Behavior In The Icelandic And Cypriot Financial Crises, Jameson K. Mah

Undergraduate Economic Review

Hedge funds are often viewed from a positive or negative lens in the public and academic forum. However, both of these perspectives neglect structuralist factors. This paper analyzes the effect of these antecedent economic, political, and legal structures. I argue that these structures are at the root of hedge fund behavior, particularly during financial crises. The financial crises of two peripheral countries, Iceland and Cyprus, are used as case studies to illustrate how hedge fund involvement diverges as a result of structural factors.

How The Federal Reserve Aided The Peoples Bank Of China In Addressing Its 2015 Stock Market Crash, Alec Buchholtz

Journal of Financial Crises

An insight into the July 2015 exchange between the Federal Reserve Board and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) discussing efforts to apply lessons from the 1987 "Black Monday" stock market crash to a similar crash that was occurring in China.

The Early Phases Of The Financial Crisis: Reflections On The Lender Of Last Resort, Timothy F. Geithner

Journal of Financial Crises

This essay discusses the powers and limitations of the Federal Reserve’s role as Lender of Last Resort and how it deployed those powers during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. It considers the Fed’s authorities and the frameworks that it relied on in utilizing its powers to calm markets in turmoil and to assist specific financial institutions.

Celtic Tiger Ireland As A Case Study In The Practical Application Of Neoliberal Economic Policy, Natalie Sneed

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

The Celtic Tiger economic boom, which occurred in Ireland from approximately 1987 to 2009 has generally been considered one of the most remarkable economic turnarounds in any country in the modern era. My purpose in this project was to identify the primary causes and effects of such rapid and dramatic economic growth and development to determine whether it is sensible for other countries emerging from colonial rule to seek to emulate the Irish economic model. Through a review of the economic literature on the Irish economy in the last three decades, I identify Ireland’s implementation of a neoliberal economic policy …

A Global View Of What Fixes Information Technology Skills Shortage: Panel Data Analyses Of Countries’ Human And Technology Resources, Benyawarath Nithithanatchinnapat, K. D. Joshi

Journal of Global Business Insights

This paper aims to provide evidence of what fixes the information technology skills shortage. The focus is on countries' workforce development factors, i.e., human and technology. The research model was tested using secondary data from multiple sources. An ordinary least square with panel corrected standard errors was used to analyze the data. The results indicate that organizations' staff training and gender parity among science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates relate negatively to IT talent shortage; this is consistent in both models the authors tested. This study contributes to the IT workforce literature by being the first study that empirically examines …

Given Today's New Wave Of Protectionsim, Is Antitrust Law The Last Hope For Preserving A Free Global Economy Or Another Nail In Free Trade's Coffin?, Allison Murray

Loyola of Los Angeles International and Comparative Law Review

No abstract provided.

Trends And Tariffs: Nebraska In An Aging Recovery, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will record solid economic growth during the forecast period but will lag U.S. growth. Nebraska’s large farming sector is struggling and will not contribute much to economic growth during the forecast period. Job growth also will be sluggish in transportation and retail trade. Job growth, however, will be stronger in the services, finance, manufacturing and construction. Projected growth rates for 2019 to 2021 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 0.7% to 0.9% per year, below the national rate. Nonfarm income will grow between 4.4% and 4.5% each year. This growth readily exceeds inflation and population growth, …

The Impact Of Legalization Of Marijuana On Opioid Overdose Deaths, Radhika N. Bharadwaj

Theses and Dissertations

This masters’ thesis aims to examine the impact of the legalization of marijuana for recreational use on the death toll from opioid misuse in the state of Colorado. This investigation was done using the Synthetic Controls Method via data collected primarily from the CDC and IPUMS databases. The results indicate that the 2012 legalization policy in Colorado appears to reduce the number of deaths due to opioid overdoses.

Shapes And Transitions Of The Interest Rate Term Structure, Biwei Chen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

I analyze different shapes of Treasury yield curves in order to better reflect and predict the U.S. economy. Since the late 1980s, macroeconomists have found that the slope of the yield curve predicts economic activity such as inflation, output growth, and recessions, but they have not fully examined the links between various shapes of yield curve and the macroeconomy. To fill the gap, I classify yield curve shapes with the U.S. Treasury yield data, detect the shape patterns over the business cycles, and map these shapes onto corresponding inflation and production states. Although the downward-sloping yield curve reliably predicts U.S. …

Structural Change, Productivity, And The Shift To Services: The Case Of Indonesia, Nabil Rizky Ryandiansyah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Since Chenery & Syrquin (1975), the pattern of transition from agriculture-heavy economies to industry and then later to services has been central to growth literatures. But recent empirical works have casted doubts on whether developing countries are able to follow the same path. This paper analyzes whether structural change in Indonesia has been productivity-enhancing. This paper finds that structural change from 1998-2014 has not been able to generate impact on economy-wide productivity. This paper also explores possible determinants of the direction of structural change. This paper does not find commodity dependence nor human capital to have clear association with low …