Macroeconomics Commons^™

Revisions To Pce Inflation Measures: Implications For Monetary Policy, Dean Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper examines the characteristics of the revisions to the inflation rate as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index both including and excluding food and energy prices. These data series play a major role in the Federal Reserve's analysis of inflation. We examine the magnitude and patterns of revisions to both PCE inflation rates. We can forecast data revisions in real time from the initial release to the annual revision released in the following year. Policymakers should account for this predictability in setting monetary policy.

El Último Acuerdo Con El Fmi Durante El Gobierno De Mauricio Macri: El Impacto De La Deuda Externa En La Soberanía Según Los Actores Políticos Y Sociales De La Argentina / The Latest Agreement With The Imf Under The Government Of Mauricio Macri: The Impact Of Foreign Debt On The Sovereignty Of Argentina According To Social And Political Actors, Sarah Schubert

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Nobel laureate in economics, Simon Kuznets, allegedly commented “There are four kinds of countries in the world: developed countries, underdeveloped countries, Japan, and Argentina” (Reyes & Sawyer, 2019). Since the mid twentieth century, Argentina has stood out due to the complexity of its ever changing economic and political orientations. Initially recognized as a growing nation with a booming economy, Argentina soon fell victim to macroeconomic instability. Inflation, growing deficits and most notably the assumption of foreign debt have plagued the country’s economy. Known for their tumultuous relationship with the International Monetary Fund, Argentina came to declare the largest sovereign default …

How Do Interest Rates Affect Market Capitalization Growth Rates In The Us?, Philip Carolin

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates how interest rates affect the market capitalization growth rate of individual companies in the US. The research will distinguish itself from previous literature as it analyzes company and macroeconomic data after the 2008 recession. This is particularly interesting as interest rates have been historically low in this time period. Previous research suggests that since the Great Recession the effects of interest rate changes have decreased. On the contrary I will argue that the effects of interest rates still appear to be significant and substantial when explaining the market capitalization growth rate.

The ‘Security Pacific Letter’: Estimating The Causal Effect Of Securitization On Banks’ Systemic Exposure, Paul-Angelo Dell'isola

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

This paper aims to test the hypothesis of the ‘Safe Asset narrative’

which states that banks became manufacturers of pseudo safe assets to meet

a global shortage of safe assets in the pre-crisis period. In this narrative,

securitization is the mechanism which enables banks to become underwriters

of safe assets. This paper takes this hypothesis to the data and attempts to

estimate the causal effect of securitization on banks’ systemic exposure. In

particular, this paper exploits a regulatory change that occurred in 1987 when

the OCC expanded the scope of assets US national banks could securitize. By

using state-chartered banks …

Essays On New Keynesian Term Premium Model With Financial Risks, Weiguo Fu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation studies the modeling of U.S. Treasury (UST) yield curve term premia under the New Keynesian (NK) framework. Loosely speaking, term premium is the difference between a government bond’s yield for a specific tenor and the average of the expected short rates up to that tenor. The dissertation is divided into three chapters. The first chapter proposes a New Keynesianism-based macro-finance model estimated by a one-step full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method. The second chapter shows that the one-step FIML method may produce estimation biases, which result in biased expected short rates and term premia. The chapter then presents …

Essays On The Economic Consequences Of Capital Controls, Richard J. Nugent Iii

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. In Chapter One, we review the literature on the economic consequences of capital controls. Capital controls are advocated as second-best policy in the presence of a pecuniary externality. Restricting capital inflows as a prudential tool during economic booms may distort the efficient allocation of capital but it invokes precautionary saving behavior so that agents do not overborrow. The financial crises that are fueled by capital market distortions can be mitigated by the use of prudential capital controls, heightened during the boom and released during the bust. The empirical evidence on capital controls has revealed …

Microcredit Accessibility In Rural Households: Evidence From Indonesia, Danang Budi Santoso

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Extant literature suggests that microcredit may improve borrowers social and economic welfare. This study aimed to investigate the microcredit accessibility of rural households in Indonesia. Binary Logistic regression was used to distinguish the characteristics of microcredit borrowers and non-borrowers, and the factors affecting the approval of microcredit application. Primary data was collected through a survey on 488 rural households in Bantul, Yogyakarta. The empirical results suggested that age, marital status and education attainment significantly affect the characteristics of clients and non-clients of microcredit. The results also revealed that age of borrowers, household income, interest rates, and loan duration are key …

Does Gender Diversity In The Boardroom Improve Firm Performance? Evidence From Indonesia, Pananda Pasaribu

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigates board gender diversity in Indonesia's listed firms and its effect on firm performance from 2011-2016. After addressing the endogeneity of diversity, the results in this paper show that the proportion of female in the boardroom marginally improve firm performance. Firms with two or more female in the boardroom have a stronger impact on firm performance than firms with one female in the boardroom, consistent with the critical mass effect. Finally, certain sectors will gain more benefits of appointing females in the boardroom. The results suggest that increasing gender diversity in the boardrooms can have beneficial effects on …

The Effect Of Hedging With Financial Derivatives On Firm Value At Indonesia Stock Exchange, Prof. Dr. Budi Frensidy

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of hedging for the risks of foreign currency, interest rate, and commodity price on firm value as measured by Tobin's Q. The findings reveal that hedging with derivative instruments is insignificantly related to firm value but significantly varied in financial risks. Hedging for foreign currency risk has a significantly positive relation to firm value, while hedging for interest rate and commodity price risk has no relation. Furthermore, this study provides a novelty compared to previous studies in the utilization of the extent of hedging as the variable to measure the implementation of hedging.

Promoting The Indonesian Special Economic Zones For Tourism: Lessons From Mandalika And Tanjung Kelayang, Latif Adam

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper aims to analyze the design and implementation of the policy to develop tourism special economic zones (TSEZs) in Indonesia with special reference to Mandalika and Tanjung Kelayang. Using descriptive analysis, it is revealed that these TSEZs have not attracted many investors yet. The policy design to promote the two TSEZs is unattractive, unclear, and at odds with the characteristics of the tourism sector. Furthermore, the implementing institutions have insufficient capacity and professionalism to implement the policy. Various critical actions are necessary to take. First, accelerating the provision of infrastructure. Second, clarifying several regulations to be in compliance with …

Economic Inequality, Regional Development, And Internal Migration In Indonesia, Khoirunurrofik Khoirunurrofik

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to probe the determinants of inter-provincial migration flows in Indonesia and how economic and development changes affect migration patterns. We employ three census periods, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our study finds that an increase in relative inequality between origin and destination provinces decreases inter-provincial migration and relatively high distance elasticity in Indonesia leads to high migration cost. People are more inclined to migrate due to push factors as opposed to pull factors from the destination region, thus indicating a strong relationship between the level of regional development and the willingness of people to migrate.

The Oppressive Pressures Of Globalization And Neoliberalism On Mexican Maquiladora Garment Workers, Jenna Demeter

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

The international economic trends of globalization and neoliberalism have exposed and enabled the exploitation of Mexican workers, especially women in the maquiladora garment industry. During the 1950s, globalization gave rise to the new international division of labor and transnational corporations (TNCs) that have offshored labor-intensive phases of production to developing countries, many of which have pursued export-led industrialization. Export processing in Mexico was encouraged in the 1960s by Item 807 of the U.S. Tariff Code and Mexico’s Border Industrialization Program. Especially following the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, advanced capitalist countries and International Financial Institutions foisted neoliberal structural …

International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We employ a two-country overlapping-generations model to explore the international dimension of household portfolio choices induced by the asymmetric provision of government-run pensions. We study the resulting patterns of risk-sharing and the corresponding welfare effects on both home and foreign agents. Introducing the defined benefits pay-as-you-go system at home increases the welfare of all other agents at the expense of the home workers and improves the degree of intergenerational risk sharing abroad. Conversely, a defined contributions system leads to welfare losses of both home cohorts accompanied by gains abroad, but does increase the extent of intergenerational risk sharing at home.

The Central Bank Balance Sheet As A Tool For Monetary Policy: Evidence From Nigeria, E. U. Kure, O. O. Mbutor, U. A. Rotimi, Y. Adamu

Economic and Financial Review

The study examined the impact of the Central bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) balance sheet on the growth of private sector credit, economic growth and price stability during the period 2006-2017. Balance sheet indicators used were total assets of the CBN and proxy for asset distribution. Employing a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the study found balance sheet policies to be effective in reducing cost of credit, increase in bank lending, economic activities and a decline in inflation. However, the effects favour asset dispersion (credit easing) against growth in assets (quantitative easing), implying that the Bank can, in the short- to medium-term, …

In Search Of Equilibrium – How Regulatory Changes Impact The Gambling Industry In Poland, Sebastian Meitz, Stanisław Pogorzelski, Przemysław Bloch

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The so-called Polish “gambling affair” of 2009 resulted in the adoption of a new Act on Gambling. The regulation significantly changed the legal environment in Poland. It was also the starting point of what we identified as the search of equilibrium - a number of further legislative changes aimed at creating a sustainable environment for gambling. Some market segments became delegalized, some monopolized, and others liberalized. The Polish Ministry of Finance and the parliament tried to find the right balance between consumer protection, business growth, and government revenue. A goal that is still to be achieved.

This article examines the …

Modeling The Economic Machine Using Bayesian Inference And Statistical Networks, And Optimal Portfolio Construction Using Operations Research, Richard Yang

ENGS 88 Honors Thesis (AB Students)

In this paper, we propose a network-based model to attempt to connect modern macroeconomic theory with real world economic observations and trends. We find that by extending macroeconomic theory with credit leveraging/deleveraging thresholds, we are able to explain economic cycles in addition to long-term growth. Furthermore, we specifically explore the growth-inflation view of the macro economy as a basis for optimal portfolio construction and efficient asset trading. Connecting our network-based macroeconomic model and our optimal portfolio construction algorithm, we create a novel macroeconomic asset-trading framework.

The Argentine Great Depression, Laira Aggarwal, Francois Ries, Alejandro Salvador

Undergraduate Economic Review

The purpose of this paper is to comprehend the business cycle of the Argentine Crisis (1998-2002). The following paper will outline the crisis, starting off with a comprehensive literature review on the topic, analyzing its causes and consequences, followed by a survey on the policy-responses undertaken by the Argentine government to combat the recession. The crisis will then be analyzed in the context of the IS-LM model of macroeconomics.

Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping Of Firm Political Preferences By Sector In Mexico, Ian Connors

Master's Theses

Can the stock market be used to determine the political preferences of individual economic sectors? This paper explores the conceptual relationship between electoral outcomes and financial markets in Mexico. Specifically, it analyzes how financial markets predict the expected effects of a given political platform on the performance of firms within specific sectors. To do this, the study used event-study methodology to calculate abnormal returns on stock prices across the nine sectors listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores stock exchange following the historic election of leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), On July 1, 2018. However, despite the uncertainty …

Labor Market Policies And Women’S Labor Market Activity In The United States And Germany, Brianna Repke

Senior Honors Projects

In terms of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and many other measures, the United States and Germany are both economic leaders in the global world. However, gender gaps persist in the labor markets of both countries. This paper examines these gender gaps and various labor market policies that are intended to reduce them. The policies examined include gender equality policies and family-oriented policies in the two countries. Over the last few decades, most of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries have experienced low and decreasing birth rates. In response, several countries have introduced parental leave regulations …

Essays On Convex Weighting For Global Vector Autoregressive Models, Garrison Leach

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on studying the impact that weighting schemes can have on forecasting performance and dynamic analysis in global vector autoregressive (GVAR) models. The first chapter discusses an existing gap in the literature regarding weighting scheme choice and develops a simple, yet powerful method for defining richer spatial linkages in a way that doesn’t sacrifice economic context. The new technique called convex weighting, extends the set of available options for defining spatial linkages in models that handle the curse of dimensionality via compression and offers a justifiable approach to alleviating uncertainty. The second and third chapters apply the newly …