Macroeconomics Commons^™

Principles Of Macroeconomics, Ernesto Garcia Iii

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.

Efficiency Gain Argument Of Fiscal Federalism And Economic Growth: Evidence From Five Selected Developing Federal Economies, Hyacinth E. Ichoku, Walter O. Ugwuoke

Bullion

This paper investigated efficiency gain argument of fiscal federalism and economic growth with evidence from five selected developing federal economies. The curiosity is to ascertain whether the efficiency gain –the fundamental argument why countries adopt fiscal federalism is justified in these economies. The paper uses stochastic frontier model to achieve this objective. The evidence from the selected developing federal economies revealed diverging results. While in Nigeria, Ethiopia and India there is more expenditure decentralization than revenue decentralization suggesting that efficiency gains from fiscal federalism may remain elusive, in Brazil and South Africa there is more revenue decentralization than expenditure decentralization …

Education, Inclusive Growth And Development In Nigeria: Empirical Examination, Emmanuel Onwioduokit

Bullion

Fundamental changes in the intellectual and social stance of any society have always been preceded by educational renaissance. This paper investigates the role of education in achieving and sustaining economic development in Nigeria. Abstracting from the theory, the paper examines education in Nigeria, its enhancing, including comparative analysis with selected African countries and its connection with economic development. The ARDL model was adopted to examine both the short run and long run relationships between education and development proxied by HDI and education and economic growth within the context of inclusive growth model. Evidence from the estimated long run ARDL model …

The Impact Of External Debt On Agricultural Production In Nigeria (1980-2016): Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling, Aishatu U. Yerima, Hussaini M. Tahir

Bullion

The study analyzed the impact of external debt on Nigeria's agricultural production from 1980 to 2016 using secondary data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Development Indicators (WDI). Augmented DickeyFuller unit root test and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration were utilized, to achieve the objectives of the study. Empirical results revealed that the variables were cointegrated, indicating that they exhibited long run relationship, both in the short and the long run. External debt stock (EDS) had a significant positive impact on agricultural production (AGP), indicating that EDS positively impacted …

Do Oil Price Returns Impact Exchange Rates Fluctuations: Evidence From The Top Four Oil Importing Countries In Asia – China, India, Japan And South Korea, Alexander Nti

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Using daily data obtained from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, we convert oil price and exchange rates to first difference logarithm to examine the link between oil price and exchange rates. We apply Johansen Cointegration models to examine relationship between the series, and our results indicate the variables are not cointegrated. Augmented Dicky Fuller test indicates that the series are nonstationary at level, but stationary at first difference. Impulse response analysis based on unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) yields varying results for the relationship between oil price and exchange rates across the currencies of the four countries considered. Thus, …

Essays In Retirement Economics, Gunnar Poppe Yanez

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1

The discrepancy between the high demand for annuities predicted by economic theory and the empirical low holdings of these assets, known as the annuity puzzle, is still not completely understood in economic studies of retirement finance. This paper assesses the effect of individuals' mortality risk learning process on annuitization. I isolate this effect by building a life-cycle model in which individuals have imperfect information of their true survival probability distribution, and therefore have to update their beliefs about it in a Bayesian manner. Using data on subjective mortality by the Health and …

Essays In Financial Economics And Applied Macroeconomics, Marius Mihai

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics in finance and macroeconomics.

Chapter 1 - Do Credit Booms Predict U.S. Recessions?

This paper investigates the role of bank credit in predicting U.S. recessions since the 1960s in the context of a bivariate probit model. A set of results emerge. First, credit booms are shown to have strong positive effects in predicting declines in the business cycle at horizons ranging from six to nine months. Second, by isolating the effect of credit booms, I identify their contributions to recession probabilities which range between three and four percentage points at a …

The Effect Of Endogenously-Determined Bullying On Test Scores, Hisham Bin Yacob Patel

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The problem of bullying is one of the main sources of adverse school environment. In this dissertation, I explore the effect of bullying on test scores, under the assumption that bullying is endogenously determined. Comparing my estimates with that from traditional OLS, I find that estimates from OLS grossly underestimates the effect of bullying on short-term student outcomes. I also find significant evidence of heterogeneity across various sub-groups; for example, male students are found to be less affected by bullying as compared to their female peers. Furthermore, male students are also found to be less affected by physical bullying while …

Essays In Macroeconomics Of Emerging Markets, Miguel Acosta Henao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1. Law enforcement and the size of the informal sector.

I assemble new cross-country evidence showing that contrary to the standard view, the relationship between the size of the informal sector and tax rates is, at best, ambiguous. Law enforcement and informality also show no clear relation. Motivated by these findings, I augment a standard two-sector (formal and informal) small open economy model with endogenous law enforcement that depends on the size of the informal sector (measured by its assets) and government expenditure. I use a micro-dataset from Colombia to show that both taxes and law enforcement are necessary …

The Economic Implications Of Eliminating Coal Subsidies In G7 Countries, Rachel M. Kim, Pradnaya S. Pathak

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the economic implications of eliminating coal subsidies in G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) in light of the Paris Agreement and the 2009 commitment to addressing climate change. The study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and contains three different simulations: production subsidy removal, consumption subsidy removal, and both consumption and production subsidy removal in G7 nations. Three variables were analyzed: economic welfare, market price, and output quantity. The results obtained using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) indicate that coal price increases and output quantity decreases, while economic welfare varies.

Irving Fisher, The Debt-Deflation Theory, And The Crisis Of 2008-2009, Zacharie Quiviger

Undergraduate Economic Review

Irving Fisher’s 1932 Booms and Depressions presents a fully specified, nine-pronged model of financial crises that has been widely forgotten by modern macroeconomists. This article builds on the renewed interest in Fisher’s Debt-Deflation Theory to explore its pertinence to the Great Recession. By parsing through macroeconomic data from the 2000s, it finds evidence of debt-deflation spiraling and of the nine Fisherian “main factors” co-varying as the author had predicted during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The article concludes in assessing the uses of Fisher’s work in current macroeconomics and in arguing for a greater consideration of its insights.

The Effect Of The Second-Stage Anti-Corruption Campaign On Provincial Development In China, 2015-2017, Zhenyao Yuan

Master's Theses

China had experienced long-term economic growth since the reform in 1978. With the communism system shifts in the socialist market economy, the country's legal institution and administration are facing corruption's challenge. President Xi Jinping takes action against deep corruption in China after coming to power in 2013. To observe the impact of the second stage of the anti-corruption campaign on provincial economic development since the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 2015 to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017, this project downloads and extracts public …

Shocks To Aggregate Demand And Aggregate Supply In The Midst Of Covid-19, Anna M. Gellerman

Publications and Research

COVID-19 sent shockwaves throughout the economy, changing the amounts of goods and services distributed and altering the demand. This article discusses the negative demand shock and adverse supply shock that the U.S. economy faced in 2020, and the policies that the government implemented to reverse these effects.

An Estimated New Keynesian Model For The Egyptian Economy, Dalia Elgebaly

Master's Theses

This paper aims to identify the drivers of Egypt’s aggregate macro fluctuations during the period 2002-2013. In particular, the paper will empirically investigate the effects of the unexpected shocks to consumers’ preference, cost-push, technology, and monetary policy on the dynamic behavior of output growth, inflation, and short-term nominal interest rate. The paper estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices for Egypt within a New Keynesian framework. The paper uses maximum likelihood, with quarterly data of key macroeconomic variables: GDP, inflation rate, and nominal interest rate from year 2002q1 until 2013q4. We have found that preferences shocks …

Oil Price Changes And Unemployment Rate In The U.S. And Chile, Agamani Maity

Master's Theses

Abstract

There is a recurring question in theoretical, empirical and policy work is what the effects of higher oil prices are on the country’s macroeconomic aggregates. Empirical evidence in support of the view that fluctuation in the economy due to the interaction of macroeconomic variables is caused by oil price was based on inappropriate econometric models. These studies do not capture the composition of the price of oil that is affected by the exogenous oil shocks and has an indirect or direct impact on the macroeconomic aggregates. In this study, we decompose the change in oil prices into three structural …

Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Quantitative Easing: An Svar Approach, Seth T. Walker

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

The 2008 recession affected the American economy more than any recession since the Great Depression. Unlike its response to the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve aimed to stimulate the economy through all means in its power. However, the Federal Reserve’s conventional monetary policy tools were not viable options due to the zero lower bound. As a result, the Federal Reserve pursued an unconventional monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing which involved purchases of long-term assets on a scale never before seen in the United States. Since its inception, quantitative easing has faced significant scrutiny over its merit and has …

The Nebraska Economy Responds To The Covid-19 Pandemic, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The Nebraska economy will contract in 2020 but the rate of decline will not be as rapid as nationwide. The economic structure of Nebraska is more focused on production and transportation than the national economy and less focused on hard-hit industries such as hospitality, entertainment, automobile parts and assembly, and oil production. Nebraska also may benefit from a higher quality workforce, which is better able to adapt to changing economic conditions.

Employment will drop by 2.4% in Nebraska in 2020, much less than the national rate of decline. Employment will rebound by 2.0% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022. With …

Addressing Urban Income Inequality Through Education: A Case Study In Atlanta, Garrett Bronn

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

For decades, the income inequality gap between the rich and poor has continued to expand dramatically, with criticism of existing education systems often at the heart of the issue. Large urban cities are commonly at the forefront of the issue, given the plethora of teacher strikes in recent years. Events such as the 11-day Chicago teacher’s strike in October of 2019 that idled academics and college prep for 350,000 students, have highlighted many current education issues (Hauck, 2019). With underfunded and poorly equipped middle and high schools, students in poor and minority neighborhoods in cities are less prepared academically, ill …

The Effects Of South Africa's Unexpected Monetary Policy Shocks In The Common Monetary Area, Bonang N. Seoela

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

The Common Monetary Area (CMA) is a multilateral agreement that provides a framework for a fixed exchange rate regime between the South-African Rand and the currencies of Lesotho, Eswatini, and Namibia (LEN). The nature of the arrangement restrains the LEN countries from exercising independent discretionary monetary policy. As a result, they must rely on the South African authorities for policy formulation and implementation. Interest rates in the LEN countries cannot deviate too far from those in South Africa. Given this limited scope for monetary policy in the LEN countries, this study investigates how each member country adjusts to shocks to …

Exchange Rate Regimes And Economic Growth, Amandarae Matthew

Undergraduate Theses

This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and exchange rate regimes among countries of lower income, lower middle income, upper middle income, and high-income countries. Countries must make careful consideration when choosing an exchange rate regime because each regime can have different long-term effects. A cross section pooled time series data will be used for a sample of 42 countries over the period of 2000-2018. Multiple models will examine the various relationships between types of exchange rate regimes, changes in exchange rate regimes, and economic growth. The components of the models being tested include political stability, change in terms …