Labor Economics Commons^™

New Employer Payroll Taxes And Entrepreneurship, Audrey Guo, Melanie Wallskog

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

How costly are taxes for young firms? In this paper, we demonstrate that even small payroll taxes significantly distort entry, growth, and hiring decisions. First, leveraging cross-sectional variation in the taxes faced by new employers, we find that higher taxes discourage new firms from hiring their first workers, with an elasticity of the number of new employers to taxes of −0.1. Second, studying changes in taxes after entry, we find that higher taxes lead more firms to exit, while also reducing employment for those who survive and leading some firms to avoid taxes by using non-taxable contract labor.

Perceived Problem, Partnership, And Training Effect On Productivity And Export: Evidence From Micro And Small Manufacturing Firms In Indonesia, Rifai Afin

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The primary objectives of this study are threefold: first, to investigate whether the challenges faced by micro and small industries motivate them to enter into partnerships; second, to assess the impact of partnerships on company productivity; and third, to explore the causal relationship between productivity and exports. We aim to determine whether productivity influences exports and vice versa or if a two-way relationship exists. The data used in this study consists of annual survey data from micro and small manufacturing companies, randomly collected by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2015, with a total sample of 58,290 observations. The methodologies …

The Importance Of The Safety Net Program For Informal Workers’ Food Security Amid The Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia, Rodhiah Umaroh, Amirusholihin Amirusholihin, Yuliawati Yuliawati

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study examines the effects of social safety-net programs on food security among vulnerable groups, focusing on households with informal workers. Utilizing data from the High-Frequency Monitoring of the COVID-19 Impacts 2020 (HiFy) and estimates with the Longitudinal Propensity Score Matching (LPSM) method, the findings reveal that cash and food assistance significantly reduce food insecurity among informal workers’ households. The households receiving these safety net programs experienced an 8–11% lower probability of food insecurity compared to non-recipients, as indicated by the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) value. The study highlights the need for continued investment in inclusive and …

Striking A Balance: Market Shock & Responses In Automotive Components Manufacturing, Emma Lane Mcgahey

All Theses

This thesis examines the effects of extreme market shocks on supply chain dynamics within the automotive industry. Through an analysis of demand data from an automotive manufacturer to its component suppliers (January 2018 to May 2024), the study investigates the relationship between market shocks and supply chain responses, providing insights into how auto components inventory management handles downstream responses to market shocks. With supporting public data—from FRED, BLS, and the U.S. Census Bureau resources—we explore two primary relationships: the impact of market shocks on the Average Standard Deviation of Demand (SDO) and the effect of demand variability on expedited pricing …

Practice Unveils Weaknesses: Analysing The Implementation Of Regulations On Seafarers’ Work/Rest Hours, Bikram S. Bhatia

World Maritime University Ph.D. Dissertations

Seafarers’ fatigue risk management is rooted in regulations on manning and work/rest hours. These regulations establish a minimum fatigue management standard achieved through work/rest hours compliance. Seafarers must maintain daily records of their work/rest hours and report any non-compliance to their company. However, adjustments to these records have been reported in the literature. Such malpractice obscures instances of non- compliance and hinders the feedback necessary for resolving these issues, including flag State review and amendments to minimum safe manning documents. It compromises the integrity of fatigue risk management and underscores the need for further research.

This study examined the implementation …

Impact Of State-Level Family Policies On Female Labor Force Participation And Entrepreneurship, Kathryn Staczek Rudloff

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation aims to investigate the impact of state-level family policies on women's participation in the labor force in the United States, focusing specifically on the rise of self-employment and solopreneurship among women. The research seeks to answer the following question: "How do family policies at the state level impact participation of American women in the labor force?"

The study utilized a convergent parallel mixed-methods design. A composite index of state level family policies was created to conduct cross-sectional exploratory data analysis of female labor force participation. Additionally, a qualitative phenomenological study of solopreneurs provided a deeper understanding of the …

Predicting Rail Transit Impacts With Endogenous Worker Choice: Evidence From Oahu, Justin Tyndall

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The provision of public transportation can improve the accessibility of work opportunities. However, predicting the labor market effects of new transit infrastructure is difficult because of endogenous worker decisions. I examine a large public-transit rail project on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Using block-level commuter-flow and travel-time estimates, I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model of location and mode choice for workers. I estimate that the new rail system increases public-transit-mode share and the employment rate but does not reduce the average commute duration, because of endogenous worker sorting. Low-income workers on Oahu capture a significant share of transit’s …

Introducing Slms: Spillover-Based Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Strengthening Work Requirements? Forecasting Impacts Of Reforming Cash Assistance, Josep M. Nadal-Fernandez, Gabrielle Pepin, Kane Schrader

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Work requirements are perhaps the most controversial aspect of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, America’s sole federal cash assistance program for low-income families with children. In 2025, for the first time in nearly 20 years, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (FRA) will implement policy changes intended to strengthen states’ work requirements. However, researcher’ and policymakers’ understanding of how FRA will impact states’ compliance with federal requirements is hampered by a lack of research and publicly available data.

We tie information from reports submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that are collected to …

Economic Vitality Index: Mapping Michigan’S 83 Counties, Sevrin Williams, Iryna V. Lendel

Reports

No abstract provided.

Resource Gaps For Minority Entrepreneurs In The Dayton Ecosystem, Iryna V. Lendel, Megan Zabik, Molly Schnoke, Jack Yochum

Reports

No abstract provided.

The Role Of Demographic Change In Explaining Declining Labor Force Participation, Manoj Atolia, John Gibson, Felix Rioja

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

The labor force participation rate has been declining in the United States since the late 1990s. Decomposing the aggregate labor force participation rate by age reveals that this decline is being driven by reduced participation among relatively young individuals, those aged 16 to 24. In fact, participation among older individuals, age 55 and above, has been increasing. In this paper, we develop a model in which individual decisions regarding schooling and retirement, in view of empirically observed changes in mortality, can simultaneously explain these three labor force participation trends. Furthermore, a counterfactual scenario that accounts for the observed demographic trends …

Occupational Projections For Skilled Trades In Kalamazoo County, 2023-2032, Sevrin Williams, Michael Horrigan, Iryna V. Lendel

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Reduced School Tracking Increased Educational Attainment And Fertility In France, Serena Canaan

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

“Just Right” Definitions Of Local Labor Markets: Introducing Slms, Timothy J. Bartik

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

“Just Right” Definitions Of Local Labor Markets: Introducing Slms, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Local Labor Markets Should Be Redefined: New Definitions Based On Estimated Demand-Shock Spillovers, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper provides estimates that lead to better U.S. labor market definitions. Current U.S. labor market definitions—for example, metropolitan areas and commuting zones—are unsatisfactory because they are ad hoc and usually do not correspond to commonly used local planning areas. This paper proposes basing U.S. labor market definitions on how a job shock to a county affects nearby counties’ employment rates. New estimates of county spillovers are presented. Using these estimated spillovers, new multicounty labor market definitions are based on maximizing a weighted sum of total spillovers captured, versus taking the average size of within-market effects. These new “spillover-defined local …

Aaron Sojourner’S Beginner’S Guide To Bluesky, Aaron Sojourner

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Broadly Shared Local Economic Success: New Measures And New Lessons For Communities, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Birth Dearth And Local Population Decline, Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Local population decline has spread rapidly since 1970, with half of counties losing population between 2010 and 2020. The workhorse economic models point to net out-migration, likely driven by changing local economies and amenities, as the cause of this trend. However, we show that the share of counties with high net out-migration has not increased. Instead, falling fertility has caused migration rates that used to generate growth to instead result in decline. When we simulate county populations from 1970 to the present holding fertility at its initial level, only 10 percent of counties decline during the 2010s.