Favorite-Longshot Bias In Pari-Mutuel Betting: An Evolutionary Explanation,
2017
Singapore Management University
Favorite-Longshot Bias In Pari-Mutuel Betting: An Evolutionary Explanation, Atsushi Kajii, Takahiro Watanabe
Research Collection School Of Economics
Favorite-longshot bias (FLB) refers to an observed tendency whereby “longshots” are overvalued and favorites are undervalued. We offer an evolutionary explanation for FLB in pari-mutuel betting using a simple market model. A bettor is forced to quit with some probability if his total net gain in one day is negative. Because of a positive track take, the expected returns of any strategy are negative, and so every agent must eventually lose and disappear in the long run. Those who favor longshots have a better chance of getting ahead with rare but large gains, enabling them to survive for longer than …
The Optimal Defense Of Networks Of Targets,
2017
Chapman University
The Optimal Defense Of Networks Of Targets, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson
ESI Working Papers
This paper examines a game-theoretic model of attack and defense of multiple networks of targets in which there exist intra-network strategic complementarities among targets. The defender’s objective is to successfully defend all of the networks and the attacker’s objective is to successfully attack at least one network of targets. Although there are multiple equilibria, we characterize correlation structures in the allocations of forces across targets that arise in all equilibria. For example, in all equilibria the attacker utilizes a stochastic ‘guerrilla warfare’ strategy in which a single random network is attacked.
War And Conflict In Economics: Theories, Applications, And Recent Trends,
2017
Simon Fraser University
War And Conflict In Economics: Theories, Applications, And Recent Trends, Erik O. Kimbrough, Kevin Laughren, Roman M. Sheremeta
ESI Working Papers
We review the main economic models of war and conflict. These models vary in details, but their implications are qualitatively consistent, highlighting key commonalities across a variety of conflict settings. Recent empirical literature, employing both laboratory and field data, in many cases confirms the basic implications of conflict theory. However, this literature also presents important challenges to the way economists traditionally model conflict. We finish our review by suggesting ways to address these challenges.
Equilibrium Play In Voluntary Ultimatum Games: Beneficence Cannot Be Extorted,
2017
Chapman University
Equilibrium Play In Voluntary Ultimatum Games: Beneficence Cannot Be Extorted, Vernon L. Smith, Bart J. Wilson
ESI Working Papers
One robust result in experimental economics is the failure to observe equilibrium play in the ultimatum game. A heretofore unnoticed feature of the game is that neither player voluntarily chooses to play the game. Motivated by Adam Smith’s proposition that beneficence—like that of non‐ equilibrium play in the ultimatum game—cannot be extorted by force, we offer the responder the opportunity to opt out of the game for a mere $1 payoff for both players. We observe high rates of equilibrium play with highly unequal splits when responders choose to play such ultimatum games with both fixed and variable sums.
Passing It Along: Experiments On Creating The Negative Externalities Of Climate Change,
2017
Chapman University
Passing It Along: Experiments On Creating The Negative Externalities Of Climate Change, Alessandro Del Ponte, Andrew W. Delton, Reuben Kline, Nicholas A. Seltzer
Political Science Faculty Articles and Research
Climate change is a global social dilemma. Mitigating it is partly a political problem created by inequitable distributions of the benefits of carbon emissions and the costs of climate change; that is, the people who benefit the most are not the same set of people who pay the most costs. Here we use an experimental economic approach to political science to study these inequities. In two experiments, we show that people willingly create climate problems when those problems are passed along to others. Surprisingly, this is not further exacerbated if those others are from another country. We also show that, …
Informed Entry In Auctions,
2017
Universidad del Rosario
Informed Entry In Auctions, Diego Aycinena, Hernán Bejarano, Lucas Rentschler
ESI Publications
We examine entry decisions in first-price and English clock auctions with participation costs. Potential bidders observe their value and report maximum willingness to pay (WTP) to participate. Entry occurs if revealed WTP (weakly) exceeds the randomly drawn participation cost. We find no difference in WTP between auction formats, although males have a higher WTP for first-price auctions. WTP is decreasing in the number of potential bidders, but this reduction is less than predicted and small in magnitude.
Every Random Choice Rule Is Backwards-Induction Rationalizable,
2017
Singapore Management University
Every Random Choice Rule Is Backwards-Induction Rationalizable, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Motivated by the literature on random choice and in particular the random utility models, we extend the analysis in Bossert and Sprumont (2013) to include the possibility that players exhibit stochastic preferences over alternatives. We prove that every random choice rule is backwards-induction rationalizable.
Bondholder Reorganization Of Systemically Important Financial Institutions,
2017
Chapman University
Bondholder Reorganization Of Systemically Important Financial Institutions, Steven Gjerstad
ESI Working Papers
This paper describes a resolution process for faltering financial firms that quickly allocates losses to bondholders and transfers ownership of the firm to them. This process overcomes the most serious flaws in resolution plans submitted by banks under Dodd-Frank Title I and in the FDIC receivership procedure in Dodd-Frank Title II by restoring the balance sheet of a failing financial institution and immediately replacing the management and board of directors who allowed its demise. In almost all bank failures, this process would eliminate the need for government involvement beyond court certification of the reorganization. The procedure overcomes the serious incentive …
Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: June 21, 2017,
2017
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: June 21, 2017, Eric Thompson
Leading Economic Indicator Reports
The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.51% during May of 2017. This is the second consecutive monthly decline in the LEI-N. The declines followed three months of rapid increase from January through March of 2017. Taken together, the LEI-N values imply a moderation in economic growth in Nebraska in late 2017 after strong growth midyear. Among the components of the indicator, business expectations were strong during May while the value of the U.S. dollar fell, which is a positive sign for Nebraska’s export-oriented businesses. However, manufacturing hours, building permits and airline passen
Sentiments, Conduct, And Trust In The Laboratory,
2017
Chapman University
Sentiments, Conduct, And Trust In The Laboratory, Vernon Smith, Bart J. Wilson
ESI Publications
In this essay we provide a brief account and interpretation of The Theory of Moral Sentiments showing that it departs fundamentally from contemporary patterns of thought in economics that are believed to govern individual behavior in small groups, and contains strong testable propositions governing the expression of that behavior. We also state a formal representation of the model for individual choice of action, apply the propositions to the prediction of actions in trust games, report two experiments testing these predictions, and interpret the results in terms directly related to the model. In short, we argue that the system of sociability …
More Balanced Economic Growth,
2017
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
More Balanced Economic Growth, Eric Thompson
Business in Nebraska
There has been a re-balancing of both global and domestic economic growth during 2017. Globally, growth is improving in Europe and China, yielding more balanced international growth. Within the United States, growth also has become more balanced across industries. As in past years, the service sector, supported by growth in employment and real wages, has grown steadily with increases in retail trade, business services, personal services and construction activity. However, in recent months, there also has been improved growth in the industrial sector, with a rebound in the energy sector, and more business investment in capital equipment. The result is …
Analyzing The Relationship Between Exposure To Extreme Weather And Economic Inequality In The Philippines,
2017
Ateneo de Manila University
Analyzing The Relationship Between Exposure To Extreme Weather And Economic Inequality In The Philippines, Rosalina Palanca-Tan, Jaimie Kim Bayani-Arias
Economics Department Faculty Publications
This paper looks into the relationship between typhoon exposure and inequality in per capita income and per capita expenditure of households in the Philippines by comparing the change in the Theil L and Theil T inequality indexes between 2009 and 2012 across different exposure groups. A decomposition analysis of the Theil index was also undertaken to establish the relative contributions of within-exposure group inequality and between-exposure groups inequality to total inequality. Conforming to the paper‘s hypothesis, the group that has the highest exposure to typhoons was found to experience a worsening of both income and expenditure inequality while the group …
Sleep Restriction And Circadian Effects On Social Decisions,
2017
Chapman University
Sleep Restriction And Circadian Effects On Social Decisions, David L. Dickinson, Todd Mcelroy
ESI Publications
Our study examines how chronic sleep restriction and suboptimal times-of-day affect decisions in a classic set of social tasks. We experimentally manipulate and objectively measured sleep in 184 young-adult subjects, who were also randomly assigned an early morning or late evening experiment session during which decision tasks were administered. Sleep restriction and suboptimal time-of-day are both estimated to either directly or indirectly (via an impact on sleepiness) reduce altruism, trust, and trustworthiness. We conclude that commonly experienced adverse sleep states, most notably chronic sleep restriction, significantly reduce prosocial behaviors, and can therefore limit benefits from short-term social interactions.
Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 24, 2017,
2017
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 24, 2017, Eric Thompson
Leading Economic Indicator Reports
The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.88% during April of 2017. The decline followed three months of rapid increase in January through March, implying a moderation in the outlook for the Nebraska economy in late 2017. Among the components of the indicator, business expectations were strong during April while the value of the U.S. dollar fell, which is a positive sign for Nebraska’s export-oriented businesses. However, manufacturing hours, building permits and airline passenger counts all declined during April, while initial claims for unemployment insurance rose.
Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions,
2017
University of San Diego
Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions, Alix Naugler
Undergraduate Honors Theses
The nationalistic rhetoric adopted by the newly-elected president’s administration along with the public’s climaxing anti-immigrant hysteria has recently forced Mexican immigration intervention to the top of the U.S. agenda. Misconceptions regarding Mexicans’ role in stealing jobs, threatening cultural and ethnic traditions, and straining public welfare, educational, and healthcare resources have spurred a fear among the American people. This politically-fabricated “schizophrenia” has ceased the political and economic collaboration between the two nations and has resulted in the unilateral militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border. In this evaluation of the U.S. government’s immigration policies, the proposed economic theories related to Mexicans’ motivations in …
A Dual-Role Analysis Of Game Form Misconception And Cognitive Bias In Financial And Economic Decision Making,
2017
University of New Orleans
A Dual-Role Analysis Of Game Form Misconception And Cognitive Bias In Financial And Economic Decision Making, Chinedum D. Nwadiora
LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations
The endowment and the framing effect are widely examined cognitive biases. The experimental economics literature, using choice data gathered through an elicitation device, commonly finds evidence of these biases. Recent work by Cason & Plott (2014) shows that the interpretation of choice data as consistent with biases related non-standard preference theory could also be consistent with confusion or misconception of the game type used to elucidate preferences. I use the Cason and Plott card auction framework to analyze offers of buyers and sellers in an experimental setting with subjects from the University of New Orleans simulating 97 sellers and 90 …
Emotions And Behavior Regulation In Decision Dilemmas,
2017
Lafayette College
Emotions And Behavior Regulation In Decision Dilemmas, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Eric Schniter
ESI Publications
We introduce a dynamic model of emotional behavior regulation that can generalize to a wide range of decision dilemmas. Dilemmas are characterized by availability of mutually exclusive goals that a decision maker is dually motivated to pursue. In our model, previous goal pursuant decisions produce negative emotions that regulate an individual’s propensity to further pursue those goals at future times. This emotional regulation of behavior helps explain the non-stationarity and switching observed between so-called “preferences” revealed in repeated decision dilemmas (e.g., by choosing A over B at time 1, then choosing B over A at time 2). We also explain …
Income Shocks And The Acceptance Of Intimate Partner Violence In Indonesia,
2017
University of San Francisco
Income Shocks And The Acceptance Of Intimate Partner Violence In Indonesia, Matthew N. Krupoff
Master's Theses
Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a pervasive issue affecting 1 in 3 women worldwide. Despite the negative welfare impacts, it is still seen as acceptable in some parts of the world, even amongst women. This paper examines how elastic these accepting attitudes towards IPV are to changing economic conditions. Specifically, this paper focuses on changes in intra-household resources from negative shocks to male-sourced income. The setting and context takes place in coastal communities in Indonesia, where fishing is a main source ofincome generated primarily by men. This paper uses satellite-derived fishing conditions to measure how women's attitudes towards IPV change …
Bringing The State Home: Neoliberalism In Global Models Of Public Housing,
2017
Columbia College Chicago
Bringing The State Home: Neoliberalism In Global Models Of Public Housing, Nicholas Alfino
Cultural Studies Capstone Papers
Global public housing authorities in state versus market capitalism take different approaches to provide housing for multicultural demographics. This capstone project looks at that of New York City and Singapore as case studies of ideologies of welfare, multicultural national identity and public policies representative of their political economies. With special attention paid the spatial relations of ethnic enclaves in both urban environments, focus is placed on a social, lived experience shaped by both 'productivist' versus 'cynical' ideology and privatization versus state authoritarianism. Each political economic system of welfare reaches from larger concepts of national and global economy to the local …
On Private Governance,
2017
Chapman University
On Private Governance, Bart J. Wilson
ESI Publications
Edward Peter Stringham’s book Private Governance: Creating Order in Economic and Social Life (2015) is a compelling defense of the proposition that private governance is more widely used and more effective than most people think. Stringham looks to history to see how people solved problems of fraud and cheating without government intervention and provides example after compelling example to contradict the strong claim that a government or any third-party enforcer is necessary for voluntary exchange. While Stringham doesn’t take on the tough problem that private governance is not sufficient for its task, his book is intended to be the beginning, …
