Econometrics Commons^™

The Long-Term Effect Of Universities On Local Technology, Dafina Rizvanolli

Master's Theses

This paper studies the long-term effects of universities on local economic complexity, contributing to new evidence on how higher education institutions shape local productive capabilities over time. While extensive research documents universities’ positive impact on development, fundamental questions remain about the mechanisms through which they operate. Our study employs the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), a measure that captures the diversity and ubiquity of regional economic structures, to provide novel insights into universities’ influence on local economies. Building on Andrews (2023), we exploit historical natural experiments in university site selection during the 19^th and 20^th centuries in the U.S. …

The Hidden Logic Behind Migration And Success, Elsa Russom

Master's Projects and Capstones

This research paper explores the hidden drivers of financial success among Eritrean migrants navigating uncertainty, displacement, and limited institutional access. Drawing on original survey data collected from diaspora communities across East African host countries, I apply a mixed-methods framework combining ordinal and binary logistic regression, random forest classification, bootstrapping, and Bayesian causal mediation; to identify the structural and cultural variables most predictive of financial stability. The findings reveal that participation in Ekub, a traditional rotating savings association, and engagement in communal support systems are the strongest predictors of financial success, outperforming conventional factors such as age, education, or employment status. …

Behavioral Responses To The Medicare Part D Coverage Gap And Its Closure, Selene Urbatsch

Theses and Dissertations

The author examines how exposure to the Medicare Part D coverage gap affects future prescription drug use and whether the closure of the gap under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) altered beneficiary behavior. Using 2007–2019 MEPS data, the analysis compares Part D enrollees to similarly aged, privately insured individuals, producing first-differences and difference-in-differences estimates. Before the ACA, exposure to the gap was associated with 4.9 fewer prescription fills relative to comparable non-Part D individuals. After the ACA, the effect fell to a reduction of 2.2 generic fills, with no significant decline in branded use. Sudden out-of-pocket cost increases prompted sharp …

Elected To Die: The Effect Of Municipal Assassinations On Remittances In Mexico, Victor M. Mendez Robles

Latin American Studies Honors Projects

This paper looks at localized violence in Mexico through both a qualitative and quantitative approach. Looking at some motivating factors behind violence against political institutions at the municipal level in Mexico. In addition, this paper looks at the relationship between assassinations of municipal mayors in Mexico to see if their assassination leads to changes in remittances in those municipalities in the following periods. This paper uses various difference in difference models to come to its conclusion. There is suggestive evidence of a relationship between remittance growth in municipalities in the periods following an assassination of a mayor currently in office.

The Impact Of Green Credit Ratio On Return On Assets, Liao Wang

All Theses

How does the green credit ratio affect a bank return on assets? This study uses panel data from 2012 to 2019, covering 18 large banks in China, including 6 state-owned banks and major 12 important joint-stock and city commercial banks. I use regression models to measure the effect of the green credit ratio (GCR) on return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE), and we focus on how bank ownership and fixed effects matters.

The results show that the effect of green credit ratio (GCR) on ROA depends on the model design. When bank fixed effects are included, green …

Estimation And Testing In A Fixed Effects Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper revisits the fixed effects panel data model with AR(1) remainder disturbances and provides a bias corrected estimator for the serial correlation coefficient based on first differencing the panel regression to get rid of the fixed effects. This bias corrected estimator builds upon the estimator proposed by Han and Phillips (2010). Asymptotic properties as well as Monte Carlo results are provided that show the better performance of this new proposed bias corrected estimator. This is extended to the unbalanced panel data case and also illustrated using the empirical application in Donohue and Levitt (2001).

Essays On Financial Econometrics, Yuexuan Ren

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of two papers that contribute to the theory of estimation, inference, and prediction using high-frequency financial data. In the first chapter, time-varying betas from return regressions, commonly used to measure systematic financial market risk, are studied using high-frequency data. A novel econometric framework is introduced for the nonparametric estimation of these betas. The optimal finite-sample inference, in a well-defined sense, is enabled by the local Gaussian property of a generic continuous-time benchmark model under the fixed-k framework. Furthermore, a uniform functional inference theory for spot regressions is developed. The proposed methodology is broadly applicable in empirical settings, …

The Effect Of Employment Shocks On Earnings: Evidence From The Covid-19 Pandemic, Giovanny A. Martinez Rodriguez

Economics Honors Projects

Economic research has documented significant short, medium, and long-term labor market consequences following recessions (Goodman & Mance, 2011; Yagan, 2017; Farber, 2011). The Covid-19 recession triggered an unprecedented economic downturn, disproportionately impacting employment in industries with high concentrations of low-income and female workers. In this paper, I leverage the substantial spatial variation in employment shocks to examine their effects on earnings and employment outcomes in both the short and medium terms. I find remarkably stable trends in earnings and employment when comparing counties experiencing high employment shocks with those that did not. Although these results differ from previous recessions, they …

Borders And Burdens: Three Essays On Inter-Jurisdictional Tax Policy In America, Benjamin Jaros

All Dissertations

Individuals, firms, and governments make decisions about the tradeoffs of different tax policies at jurisdictional borders, such as those between states, nations, or local governments; those choices shape the burden of taxation. This dissertation examines the effects of three distinct changes in tax policy: for state corporate income tax apportionment, colonial tobacco tariffs, and tax abatements for data centers. Chapter 1 examines how changes to the corporate income tax base formula affect state tax revenues. Chapter 2 analyzes how colonial era export and import tariffs on tobacco impacted trade volumes, raised revenue, and the distribution of the tax burden between …

Valuation Of Crypto Assets On Blockchain With Deep Learning Approach, Xi Zhou, Yin Pang, Esther Ying Yang, Jing Rong Goh, Shaun Shuxun Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

With the rapid expansion of the blockchain ecosystem, crypto asset valuation has become an essential area of study for investors and institutions. Here, we introduce a deep learning framework that was designed to predict the value index of crypto assets by integrating intrinsic value variables and decomposing market prices into value and sentiment components. The Crypto Asset Value-indexing Model (CAVM) was applied to Ethereum’s cryptocurrency ETH to demonstrate its effectiveness. Four econometric tests were conducted to verify the informativeness, predictiveness, and reasonability of the generated value indices, as well as the efficiency of price decomposition. Our findings suggested that the …

Limit Theory For Local Polynomial Estimation Of Functional Coefficient Models With Possibly Integrated Regressors, Ying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Limit theory for functional coefficient cointegrating regression was recently found to be considerably more complex than earlier understood. The issues were explained and correct limit theory derived for the kernel weighted local level estimator in Phillips and Wang (2023b). The present paper provides complete limit theory for the general kernel weighted local th order polynomial estimators of the functional coefficient and the coefficient derivatives. Both stationary and nonstationary regressors are allowed. Implications for bandwidth selection are discussed. An adaptive procedure to select the fit order  is proposed and found to work well. A robust -ratio is constructed following the new …

Mortgage Default Classification Modeling For Variable Analysis, Brendan R. Goggins

Honors College Theses

The financial crisis of the early 2000’s is a prime example of the severe consequences that mortgage default and borrower insolvency can have on economies at large. Mortgage default specifically is a prime case with the popularization of mortgage backed securities and the commonality of this loan structure. Multiple hypotheses and models have been formed to understand the reasons, causes, and consequences of mortgage default. This paper uses both machine learning and statistical classification models to inform an understanding of the variables most significant and impactful to the default outcome of mortgages. Consideration is given to both loan-level microeconomic variables …

The Secret Life Of Nim: How Regulation Affects Bank Balance Sheets And Consumer Consequences, Alexandra Nenish

Business and Economics Honors Papers

After the Great Recession of 2008, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act was passed by the Obama Administration in 2010 with hopes to protect citizens against economic downturn spurred by poor banking behaviors. This act of federal financial oversight was unprecedented, and its magnitude and level of strictness caused banks to see an increase in costs, such as increases in personnel numbers and non-interest earning reserve requirements. This research analyzes how banks, specifically community banks, paid for these increased costs by focusing on the net interest margin (NIM). The NIM is a prominent profitability ratio for banking …

New York Camp Econometrics Xix Program, Center For Policy Research

Camp Econometrics-Programs

No abstract provided.

Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation In A Spatial Lag Model Under A Complete Bipartite Network, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper considers a spatial lag model with a complete bipartite network weighting matrix which is important in network theory. We show that two-stage least squares is equivalent to ordinary least squares and both estimators are inconsistent for the cross-section data case. This result has also been derived for the spatial lag model with an equal weight matrix by Kelejian and Prucha (2002). We also show that the fixed effects two-stage least squares estimator is consistent in case we have panel data and the spatial lag model includes time fixed effects. This is different from the result for an equal …

Health Crisis And Currency Risk: Fresh Evidence From New Data Sets, Afees A. Salisu, Dinci J. Penzin, Yinka S. Hammed

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

With the aid of a method of predictability analysis that involves a feasible quasigeneralized least squares estimator, we examine the predictive power associated with the newly computed COVID-19 indices, which are disaggregated into six indices for currency market risks (realized volatility of exchange rate). Our sample size covers the period between December 31, 2019, and December 28, 2021. We note mixed outcomes for the major currency markets considered. On average, while the health crisis seems to have heightened the risks associated with Pounds Sterling, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar against USD, it exerts a moderating effect on the Euro, Yen …

Microfinance In Latin America: Sustainability, Growth, And Efficiency, Katelyn M. Hoidal

Global Tides

The subsequent research addresses the question: Within populous Latin American countries (Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Argentina, Chile, and Peru), are microfinance institutions associated with differences in GDP and household consumption equally between 2010 and 2018? Which do they have a stronger correlation with? The essence of this question seeks to answer whether the correlation between MFIs and wealth indicators carries over to a national level or merely persists at an individual level. This research has been informed and influenced by literature and studies conducted across South Asia, Africa, and Latin America focusing on the research of Abdelkader, Naveeda, Annim, Campbell, Armendáriz, …

What About The Buyers? Deriving Factors Of Demand In The U.S. Black Market, Eric S. Schneider

Undergraduate Theses

The vast majority of econometric research regarding black markets focuses on the supply. Relatively little information is definitively shown in academic literature regarding the drivers of demand for black markets. This project seeks to identify factors of demand for black market goods and services. First, this paper gives a brief definition of the broad definition of black markets, before specifically defining the scope of individual markets which will be included in this project. Next, there is a brief review of recent literature on the U.S. black market in order to determine prime candidates for factors of demand. Then, a robust …

Determinants Of Wealth Inequality In Central America: A Panel Data Analysis Of Socioeconomic And Institutional Factors, Jose Manuel Fernandez Pou

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study applies a non-linear panel threshold regression model to examines the factors of economic development in Central America, with an emphasis on institutional and socioeconomic factors. Using data acquired between 2000 and 2023 the research evaluates how different variables like trade openness, FDI, financial development, education spending, inflation and population growth impacts the growth of GDP at different levels of institutional quality. The results demonstrate that institutional quality levels create a distinct threshold effect when trade openness and FDI fail to promote growth in weak institutional settings while inflation volatility strongly hinders growth. FDI and financial development show positive …

Beyond The Road Trip: Investigating The Impact Of Travel Fatigue On Nba Team Performance, Anthony Pugliese

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the impact of travel fatigue on NBA player performance. In this paper we will look at key variables such as back-to-back games and long-distance travel. By using specific team by team data on factors like game results, travel distance, and rest days. This study examined how specific factors like time zone shifts and travel length influences winning percentage and player efficiency. This paper will also show a regression analysis and visual data to back up results using real life data. The results showed that team performance decreased significantly when teams were at a higher rate of travel …