Econometrics Commons^™

Essays On The Impact Of Childbirth On Parenthood And Childcare, Titir Dey

All Dissertations

This dissertation studies the impact of childbirth and parenthood on the labor market outcomes and decisions of parents. Of the three chapters, the first two talk about how childbirth affects the labor supply decisions of the parents and the subsequent impact on earnings. The third chapter talks about the effect of disruption in the childcare arrangements on the employment outcomes of parents during the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

The first chapter measures the short- and long-run declines (penalties) in annual earnings associated with the first childbirth for parents in the United States by exploiting the heterogeneity in their gender, educational attainment …

Essays On Healthcare Regulation And Industrial Regulation, Vitor C. Melo

All Dissertations

The first chapter explores differences in incentives and consequent behavior between for-profit and not-for-profit firms. I investigate a terrible choice nursing homes faced during the pandemic: isolating residents prevents deaths from COVID-19, but increases non-COVID deaths by aggravating mental illnesses such as dementia. I explore how ownership structure led to differences in isolation measures taken and in resultant health outcomes. I model decisions regarding isolation measures as a trade-off between profits and satisfying staff's demands, with not-for-profit managers more constrained in how they consume profits. The model predicts that not-for-profit facilities will have more restrictive isolation measures and, consequently, lower …

Triple Shock On External Sustainability In Indonesia, Aloysius Deno Hervino, Insukindro Insukindro, Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Amirullah Setya Hardi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study evaluates Indonesia’s external sustainability by analyzing exports, imports, and net unilateral transfer payments. The study utilizes Indonesia’s data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019, applying both a long-run dynamic model and a short-run forward-looking model incorporating triple shocks. This research excludes the period from 2020 onwards due to the economic upheaval in Indonesia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. This study concludes that Indonesia’s current account is unsustainable, as neither export nor import variables exhibit a long-term link, hence failing to meet intertemporal budget constraints. Furthermore, imports substantially influence long-term exports, which increase …

Exchange Rate And Indonesia Economic Growth, Ayi Supriyadi, Yanfitri Yanfitri, Trinil Arimurti, Sinta Atharinanda

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We examine the effect of the exchange rate on the economy and the impact of the Dominant Currency Paradigm (DCP) on Indonesia’s export volume. This study employs multiple methodologies, namely the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the non-linear version of ARDL, and panel regressions. The findings indicated that the depreciation of the exchange rate influenced economic expansion. The beneficial effect was mitigated by the influence of finance as seen in the company’s financial sheet. The findings also indicate the influence of DCP on the volume of international trade in Indonesia.

Shutdowns And Startups: How Covid-19 Policies Shaped Entrepreneurial Trends Across U.S. States, Mia Sideris

Business and Economics Summer Fellows

The COVID-19 pandemic had an unprecedented impact on the US economy. Severe restrictions were placed on nearly every state, culminating with the declaration of a national emergency in March 2020. The intent of these restrictions was to safeguard public health, while unintentionally imposing operational burdens on businesses. This paper explores how heterogeneity in state level policy responses influenced entrepreneurial activity. Using the synthetic control method and data on mandated workplace closures, we estimate the impact of these actions on business applications per capita in the state of South Carolina, which was late to impose these measures. We find that if …

Money And Social Exclusion In Networks, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Edoardo Gallo

ESI Working Papers

Globalization offers unparalleled opportunities to expand welfare through cooperation across large networks of unrelated individuals. Social exclusion – permanent or temporary – and monetary exchange are institutions that in theory can incentivize cooperation. In an experiment, we evaluate their relative performance and interaction in anonymous networks of different sizes. Permanent social exclusion (ostracism) reduces long-run economic potential by leading to sparse networks. Monetary exchange and temporary social exclusion perform similarly well in small networks. In large networks, however, monetary exchange is the only institution that promotes full cooperation by crowding out ostracism and keeping the network complete. An insight is …

Pengaruh Vaksinasi Covid-19 Terhadap Kesehatan Dan Kondisi Ekonomi Masyarakat Di Indonesia, Ayu Lestari, Fauziah Zen

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

The COVID-19 vaccination is considered crucial for controlling the pandemic and accelerating economic recovery. However, empirical evidence on the impact of vaccination on health and the economy at the district/city level in Indonesia remains limited. This study aims to analyze the impact of vaccination on health outcomes and economic conditions. The methodology used is a fixed effect model with monthly panel data on vaccination and health outcomes (positivity rate and recovery), as well as annual data on per capita expenditure in 514 districts/cities from January 2021 to December 2022. The results show that the first dose of vaccination significantly reduces …

From Disruption To Integration: Cryptocurrency Prices, Financial Fluctuations, And Macroeconomy, Zhengyang Chen

Faculty Publications

This paper examines cryptocurrency shock transmission to financial markets and the macroeconomy using a Bayesian structural VAR with Pandemic Priors from 2015 to 2024. By affecting overall risk appetite, cryptocurrency price shocks generate positive financial market spillovers, accounting for 18% of equity and 27% of commodity price fluctuations. Real economic effects are significant in driving investment but remain limited, contributing only 4% to unemployment and 6% to industrial production variance. However, cryptocurrency shocks explain 18% of price-level forecast error variance at long horizons. Narrative analysis reveals sentiment and technology as primary shock drivers. These findings demonstrate cryptocurrency's deep financial system …

Pengaruh Demokrasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Daerah Di Indonesia, Jayanti Kusumaningrum Utomo, Widyono Soetjipto

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This study observes that previous research on the relationship between democracy and economic growth has produced ambiguous outcomes. The aim of this paper is to estimate the relationship between democracy and regional economic growth in Indonesia. Using a fixed effects model with 374 provincial-level observations, the results indicate a statistically significant and positive relationship between democracy and regional economic growth in Indonesia.

High Frequency Factor Analysis With Partially Observable Factors, Dachuan Chen, Wenqi Lu, Siyu Xie

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers a novel factor structure – Partially Observable Factor Model – where both observable factors and latent factors exist in the model simultaneously. Such factor structure can make sure both interpretability and goodness-of-fit at the same time. Necessary estimation methodologies for this partially observable factor model are developed in this paper for the high frequency data. The proposed estimation methodology is robust to jumps, microstructure noise and asynchronous observation times simultaneously.When the observable factors are exogenous, we provide the estimation theory for the integrated eigenvalues of the residual covariance matrix, which including the bias-corrected estimator, central limit theorem …

General Equilibrium Markets As Distributed Computational Systems, Steven Gjerstad

ESI Working Papers

One principal capability of markets is the coordination of information distributed among market participants who typically have competing incentives. Despite distributed information and conflicting incentives, competition among market participants often leads to socially desirable resource allocation. In this sense a market is a distributed multi-agent mechanism that, in effect, finds an optimal solution to a computational problem that is not known to any individual market participant. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that capacity of markets by defining automated agents that interact with one another in a distributed system that implements a socially desirable resource allocation. In this …

Status Sosial Ekonomi Dan Pengeluaran Oop Kesehatan Penyandang Disabilitas, Maxent Rg Nainggolan, Riki Relaksana

Jurnal Ekonomi Kesehatan Indonesia

In 2020, the number of persons with disabilities in Indonesia reached 22.97 million. One of the main challenges this population faces is the high burden of health expenditures, particularly those that are urgent and unpredictable. This study aims to analyze the influence of socioeconomic status on out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures among households with persons with disabilities in Indonesia. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data from the 2022 National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), utilizing the core module (KOR) and the household expenditure module (KP). Data were analyzed using the two-part regression model to identify the determinants of OOP health spending. …

Determinants Of Catastrophic Health Expenditure Of Households In Indonesia, Rafa Fayza Afrizal, Novira Hasya, Faticha Putri Harda, Wildan Avif Alfathin, Vanissa Nur Latifah, Maxent Rael Nainggolan, Fadillah Rahmah Jaelani, Estro Dariatno Sihaloho

Jurnal Ekonomi Kesehatan Indonesia

The need for healthcare services due to illness is unpredictable, thus burdening patients economically and posing a risk of catastrophic events. The percentage of households with catastrophic health expenditures is defined as out-of-pocket payments exceeding 10% of the household’s capacity to pay for healthcare. Increasing catastrophic expenditure costs can further deteriorate the household’s financial condition. This study analyzes the determinants of catastrophic health expenditures in Indonesian households. A total of 12,892 household samples from the cross-sectional Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) wave 5 (2014) were used in this study. Using a logistic regression model, this study aims to identify various …

The Dynamics Of Word-Of-Mouth Marketing: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach To Message Credibility And Consumer Engagement, Ali Nasirzonouzi, Carlos Gershenson

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Word-of-mouth (WOM) marketing is a critical factor in the dissemination of information and adoption of products in social networks. This paper investigates the impact of two important factors message credibility and consumer engagement on WOM adoption dynamics using agent-based modeling (ABM). This study proposes a simple qualitative model to investigate how these factors influence adoption rates through both broadcast communication and peer-to-peer influence by simulating interactions on a spatially clustered network.

The findings show that increased message credibility significantly boosts adoption, achieving a balance between broadcast and social mechanisms. Also, consumer engagement primarily affects the adoption mechanism, shifting the effect …

Environmental-Friendly Consumption: Measuring The Impact Of Lifestyle On Household Carbon Emissions, Faisal Madjid Alyasa, Adam Hawari, Afif Akbar Syawala, Estro Dariatno Dariatno Sihaloho

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

In 2060, Indonesia aims for a clean, emissions-free society. However, achieving this goal requires understanding how lifestyle choices affect household carbon emissions. This study, based on data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey 2014, examines the impact of different diets (plant-based, vegetarian, Mediterranean, full meat-based, and mixed) on carbon emissions. Using Ordinary Least Square Panel Data Regression, the research finds that plant-based and vegetarian diets have a lower carbon footprint compared to mixed and full meat-based diets. The findings suggest that transitioning to more environmentally friendly consumption patterns can help reduce carbon emissions and benefit the environment.

Welfare Implication Of Alternative Tax Rates Adjustment Policy In Nigeria: A Dsge Analysis, Umar B. Ibrahim, Isah F. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sets out to determine the desirable policy adjustment in the tax rate for Nigeria that ensures the least welfare cost. A calibrated small open-economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model of the Nigerian economy is applied to achieve this objective. Within this framework, we examined the impact of an increase in value-added tax (VAT) rate from 7.5 to 15 percent on key macroeconomic variables relative to the impact of an increase in company income tax (CIT) rate from 30 to 35 percent on macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we examined the welfare costs of the increases in the …

Price Coordination Under List Pricing And Discounting: Experimental Evidence, Roberto Hernán González, Praveen Kujal, Miguel Angel Ropero-García, Román Fossati

ESI Working Papers

List-pricing and discounting is common in both retail and wholesale markets. Its interpretation amongst competition authorities varies from being procompetitive to collusion facilitating. We experimentally test how list pricing and discounting impact prices in a capacity constrained Bertrand-Edgeworth duopoly with symmetric and asymmetric firms facing constant marginal costs. We find that, relative to the symmetric baseline experiments, list pricing and discounting generate higher equilibrium prices for (symmetric) firms. Prices in the asymmetric-list price duopoly are also higher, however, the effect is much smaller than under symmetry. The introduction of asymmetry results in higher prices. The smaller firms gain more from …

Preferences Or Confounders? Persistent Gender Gap In Competition Across Four Continents, Natalia I. Valdez-Gonzalez, Adriana Gaviria, Antonio M. Espin

ESI Working Papers

The gender gap in willingness to compete is thought to underlie enduring inequalities in education, career choice, and labor market outcomes. Yet it remains unclear whether the gap reflects true preference differences or results from confounding factors such as task stereotypes, overconfidence, or risk aversion. We test gender differences in competition entry across eight pre-registered studies in seven countries spanning four continents (Dominican Republic, Ivory Coast, El Salvador, Madagascar, Spain, The Philippines, and Uruguay; total n = 1,833), using an experimental design that systematically minimizes these confounds: (i) based on a non-male-stereotyped task (the Reading the Mind in the Eyes …

Econometric Analysis Of Social Interactions And Decision-Making, Shuo Qi

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation explores the econometric analysis of social interactions and decision-making. The first two chapters advance econometric methodology by addressing key challenges in identifying and estimating peer effects, specifically tackling issues related to partial network data and endogenous link formation. The third chapter presents an empirical analysis of parental over-aspiration and its impact on children's academic outcomes, using monotone instrumental variables constructed from social network structures.

Chapter 1 is "Identification and Estimation of Discrete Choice Models with Spillovers Using Partial Network Data". This paper investigates peer effects in discrete choice models with incomplete data on social links. We consider an …

Mitigating Agricultural Income Volatility: Evidence From Crop Insurance Adoption In India, Annoushqa Bobde

Master's Theses

Income volatility resulting from crop loss presents a significant threat to rural livelihoods in India, where nearly half of the workforce is employed in agriculture. This study examines the causal impact of crop insurance uptake on farm income using nationally representative data from the 70th and 77th rounds of the National Sample Survey, merged with satellite-derived climate data and Harmful Degree Days (HDD), which is used as a proxy for crop-damaging temperature. To address selection bias in insurance enrollment, Propensity Score Matching, Inverse Propensity Weighting, and a Two-Way Fixed Effects model are used. Results show that insurance uptake is associated …