Econometrics Commons^™

The Price Of Victory: A Machine Learning Analysis Of How Salary Dispersion Influences Team Success In Major League Baseball, Joseph Belsanti

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the effect of salary dispersion on team success in Major League Baseball (MLB). Using data from 29 MLB teams over eight seasons (2012-2019), this study uses multiple models, such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), panel data regressions, and Random Forest machine learning, to investigate the degree – if any – that inequalities in a team's payroll impacts success, measured by winning percentage. The study's results show that, contrary to prevailing theories, salary dispersion – measured by a Gini coefficient – is not a significant predictor of a team's winning percentage (team success). Instead, team performance metrics, such …

Effects Of Bureaucratic Corruption On Firms' Financial Constraints, Obinna Franklin Ezeibekwe

The Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance

This study provides the first empirical assessment of the causal impact of bureaucratic corruption on firms' financial constraints in Nigeria by calculating treatment effects using linear and non-linear estimators to account for potential heterogeneous treatment effects across firm groups. Formally, the theoretical framework models how corruption may facilitate or restrain firms' financial access by shaping their cost functions, which consequently influences their success or failure and ability to raise the collateral for borrowing. My analysis, using the bivariate probit method and two binary instruments, reveals that corruption significantly increases the probability of a representative MSME and firm being financially constrained …

Beyond The Suburban Ideal: Addressing Southern California’S Strained Affordable Housing Market Through Density Bonus Programs, Alissa Larue

School of Public Policy Capstones

This study examines how expanding Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) could serve as an effective policy solution to address the housing affordability crisis. In San Diego, a Bonus Program has been implemented to incentivize the construction of affordable ADUs by relaxing burdensome regulations. A Differences-in-Differences approach using two-way fixed effects is employed to evaluate the program's effectiveness in promoting ADU development, using city-level data from San Diego and Los Angeles counties. ADU permit applications serve as a key indicator of policy impact. The findings strongly suggest that the Bonus Program influenced increasing ADU permit applications in San Diego. Because the model …

The Impact Of Tariffs And Institutional Quality On Economic Growth In Latin America: A Panel Data Analysis, Blaisedel Frampton

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between tariffs and economic growth in Latin American countries and how institutional quality may impact this relationship. The study will use data from the World Development Indicators Data Bank. The data used comes from 18 high- or middle-income countries within South America and the Caribbean from the years 2003 to 2023. Results from this study were found using a fixed-effects regression model. The results from this study show that overall, there is a negative correlation between tariffs and economic growth in South America. There is also a positive correlation between institutional quality and economic growth …

Passive Vs. Active Etfs: A Comparative Data Analysis Of Market Performance And Investor Behavior, Herrick Louis

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the long-term performance of passive vs active ETFs. Using a comparative analysis of historical returns from 2015 to 2024, Regression modeling, and time Series Analysis, I assessed whether passive investing offers a strategic advantage overactive management. Drawing on data from VOO Passive, SWANX active, Bitcoin, and MAG 7 technology ETFs, and the Financial Sector.

Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Gendered Happiness: A Cross-Sectional Study Of Oecd Countries, Anusha Khan

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper explores how socioeconomic factors influence life satisfaction across OECD countries and how these effects vary by gender. Using a cross-sectional dataset, the study runs three separate regressions, total, men’s, and women’s happiness to test whether factors like health, education, safety, and support networks impact life satisfaction differently for men and women. A Random Forest model is also used to validate the robustness of selected predictors. Findings show that health and support matter universally, but men’s well-being is more closely tied to educational attainment, while women’s happiness is more sensitive to feelings of safety.

Ai Adoption And Wage Growth In U.S. Industries: A Sectoral Analysis, Demitrius Andrellos

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming nearly every sector and has significant implications for workers and their wages. This paper examines the impact of the utilization of AI on wage growth across various industries in the United States. Through analysis of trends, examination of current research, and regression analysis using real industry data, the research demonstrates the disparate impacts of AI. Research suggests that AI raises wages in tech- and finance-centric sectors where it complements humans but keeps wages down in labor-intensive sectors where it replaces them. Understanding this disparity is important to build equitable workforce policies for the AI age.

Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Macroeconomic Determinants On Equity Reit Performance, Chris Morello

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates how equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) respond to key macroeconomic factors: stock market performance, interest rate changes, and inflation. Using annual data from 1972 to 2024, multiple linear regressions are conducted to assess which variables significantly explain REIT returns. The results reveal a strong and consistent relationship between equity REIT performance and S&P 500 returns, while interest rates and lagged inflation measures show no statistically significant impact. These findings suggest that REITs behave more like equities than fixed-income assets, particularly in the long term. While the models have limited explanatory power, the analysis supports the idea …

Beyond The Stats: Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Performance Metrics And Nationality On Major League Soccer Player Salaries: A Panel Data Analysis, Daniel Pereira

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of how player in-game individual performance and nationality shape the salary system in Major League Soccer (MLS). The objective is to evaluate the direct relationship between key performance indicators (KPIs) such as field position, goals, assists, appearances, and defensive contributions, and how these factors are different between domestic and international players.

The Contemporaneous Impact Of Unemployment And Income Inequality On Violent Vs Property Crime Rates In New England: A Panel Data And Machine Learning Approach, Cora Sousa

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possible impact of unemployment and income inequality on property and or violent crimes in the New England region in the United States from 2003 to 2022. Using a panel data analysis looking at unemployment rates and factors of income inequality in New England states, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Vermont, along with demographic factors like race and gender aim to find a relationship between unemployment and income inequality with crime rates. Economic distress, usually caused by unemployment, can cause an individual to commit crimes due to hard times. Using machine learning decision trees …

Decarbonization Under Carbon Policy And Pricing Shifts: A Machine Learning-Driven Synthetic Control And Panel Data Analysis, Chanboremey Teng

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study evaluates the effectiveness of carbon pricing instruments – Carbon taxes and Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) – in reducing CO2 emissions per capita across 152 countries from 1990 to 2023 using dynamic panel regressions with fixed effects. The analysis estimates both short-run and long-run effects while controlling economic structure, energy mix, and environmental policy stringency (EPS). The results show that ETS policies yield the strongest long-term reduction in emissions at approximately 7.35%, followed by carbon taxes at 5.6%, and EPS regulatory measures at 6.35%. However, when all three instruments are modeled together, the marginal effects of pricing mechanisms weaken, …

Estimation And Inference In A Possibly Multicointegrated System With A Fixed Number Of Instruments, Yixiao Sun, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper shows that the mixed normal asymptotic limit of the trend IV estimator with a fixed number of deterministic instruments (fTIV) holds in both singular (multicointegrated) and nonsingular cointegration systems, thereby relaxing the exogeneity condition in (Phillips and Kheifets, 2024, Theorem 1(ii)). The mixed normality of the limiting distribution of fTIV allows for asymptotically pivotal F and t tests about the cointegration parameters and for simple efficiency comparisons of the estimators for different numbers K of instruments, as well as comparisons with the trend IV estimator when K→∞ with the sample size.

Statistical Inference For Noisy Matrix Completion Incorporating Auxiliary Information, Shujie Ma, Po-Yao Niu, Yichong Zhang, Yinchu Zhu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article investigates statistical inference for noisy matrix completion in a semi-supervised model when auxiliary covariates are available. The model consists of two parts. One part is a low-rank matrix induced by unobserved latent factors; the other part models the effects of the observed covariates through a coefficient matrix which is composed of high-dimensional column vectors. We model the observational pattern of the responses through a logistic regression of the covariates, and allow its probability to go to zero as the sample size increases. We apply an iterative least squares (LS) estimation approach in our considered context. The iterative LS …

Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels With Multiple Structural Changes, Badi H. Baltagi, Qu Feng, Wei Wang

Center for Policy Research

Nonstationary panels have been widely used in empirical studies in macroeconomics and finance. This paper considers multiple structural changes in nonstationary heterogeneous panels with common factors. Kapetanios, Pesaran, Yamagata (2011) showed that unobserved nonstationary factors can be proxied by cross-sectional averages of observable data. This means that unobserved error factors can be treated as additional regressors, and different break points in slopes and error factor loadings can be considered as multiple breaks in linear regression models with panel data. We generalize the least squares approach by Bai and Perron (1998) to nonstationary panels and show that the break points in …

Analysis Of Systematic Trade-Offs Between Military And Healthcare Expenditure Alongside Gdp Growth Of Select Asian And Western Exporting Economies In The 21st Century, Rahul Balamurugan, Carlos Gershenson, Preethi Nanjundan, Hiroki Sayama

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study explores the complexity in the trade-offs between military expenditure, healthcare expenditure, and GDP growth across select Asian nations and major weapon-exporting countries, examining how nations allocate finite resources between national security and human well-being over the past two decades. Using a systems science approach, the research integrates Granger causality testing to analyze temporal and directional relationships among GDP growth, military expenditure, and healthcare expenditure, uncovering their dynamic interdependencies. The methodology includes trend and slope analysis, Granger causality testing, outlier detection, and clustering to identify heterogeneity in resource allocation strategies. Developed, weapon-exporting nations exhibit complementary trends, with strong causality …

Religion And Economic Development: Past, Present, And Future, Sascha O. Becker, Amma Panin, Steven J. Pfaff, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion's influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as …

Religion, Culture, And Politics, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This chapter presents a conceptual framework for understanding the interaction of religion, ideology, and politics. The framework’s key insights are: i) culture and ideology provide a shared mental framework for interpreting the world; ii) ideology is malleable, and it can be used to justify a wide set of empirical realities in a manner that is consistent with the prevailing mental framework; iii) religion is particularly adept at shaping this mental framework because it attempts to explain the unknown; iv) because co-religionists share a mental framework that depends on a (religious) interpretation of events, religions are particularly likely to be co-opted …

Food Self-Sufficiency And Building-Integrated Urban Agriculture: Lessons From Singapore, Tomoki Fujii, Christoph Waibel, Xinyi Du, Zhongming Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore aims to achieve 30 percent food self-sufficiency by 2030, known as the 30-by-30 target, and this paper reviews Singapore’s changing landscape for urban agriculture and its recent progress towards the 30-by-30 goal, highlighting key challenges such as land constraints, high production costs, and resource limitations. Building-integrated agriculture (BIA), which utilizes building surfaces such as rooftops, façades, and balconies for food production within urban environments, is examined as a potential way to increase self-sufficiency through a simulation. Despite the BIA’s potential, practical issues—including regulatory concerns and infrastructure limitations—must be addressed before it can be implemented at scale. Insights from Singapore’s …

Fintech’S Rise Reshaping Asean’S Financial Future, Swee Liang Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Fintech can offset the diminishing effects of bank lending on economic growth. By leveraging innovative technologies, fintech companies can reduce transaction costs, address information asymmetry issues and streamline processes such as customer evaluation and risk assessment. This strategic collaboration between banks and fintech firms can lead to improved efficiency and effectiveness in financial services, such as pressuring traditional banks to innovate in areas such as customer interface and processes, ultimately boosting economic growth.

Poverty Among New York City’S Most Vulnerable: 2000-2022, Juan Dolores Cerna, Suleyma Vergara-Tapia

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

This report examines the trends of poverty in New York City between the years 2000 and 2022, focusing on economically vulnerable groups such as women, children, and older adults

Methods

This report uses data for the years 2000, 2012, and 2022 released by the U.S. Census Bureau and harmonized for public use by IPUMS USA at the University of Minnesota. See Steven Ruggles, Sarah Flood, Ma hew Sobek, Daniel Backman, Annie Chen, Grace Cooper, Stephanie Richards, Renae Rodgers, and Megan Schouweiler. IPUMS USA: Version 15.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2024. https://www.ipums.org/projects/ipums-usa/d010.V15.0

Discussion

From 2000 to 2022, New York City experienced …